另一方面，广东造纸业发布首个反内卷倡议书，行业密集涨价潮来袭，纸业股逆势走强；反内卷驱动提 价预期升温，物流股全天表现活跃，汽车股、黄金股、半导体股部分上涨。(格隆汇) 盘面上，大型科技股涨跌各异，其中，百度、阿里巴巴涨1%，美团、小米勉强翻红，快手跌3.12%，腾 讯跌近3%，网易跌1.47%，京东小幅下跌；大金融股(银行、保险、券商)、中字头等权重多数表现低 迷；连续上涨的生物医药股全线下跌，创新药概念股跌幅明显，同源康医药-B跌超14%，绿叶制药、三 生制药、信达生物、恒瑞医药、药明康德皆下跌；石油股走低，Q2业绩承压，预计上半年纯利下滑最 多43.7%，中国石油化工大跌近6%。 港股三大指数午后持续走低，8月首日迎来开门黑行情！市场近日来连续回调市场情绪表现低迷，截止 收盘，恒生指数跌1.07%，国企指数跌0.88%，二者均录得4连跌，恒生科技指数跌1.02%更是录得7连跌 行情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a decline on the first day of August, with major indices falling, yet market activity remained robust with approximately 3,300 stocks gaining [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.37% to 3,559.95 points - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.17% to 10,991.32 points - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.24% to 2,322.63 points - The STAR 50 Index declined by 1.06% - Total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 16,200 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, brokerage, military, oil, and semiconductors saw declines - Conversely, sectors including logistics, environmental protection, media, and pharmaceuticals experienced gains - The photovoltaic industry chain, AI applications, and computing power concepts were notably active [1] Future Outlook - According to Galaxy Securities, the A-share market is expected to show a pattern of fluctuating upward movement in August, influenced by favorable policy expectations, moderate economic recovery, mid-year report validation, and overseas disturbances - Structural differentiation is anticipated, driven by mid-year performance and rising policy expectations, which may facilitate capital inflow and support continued upward movement in A-shares - Three main investment themes are suggested: new productive forces, pharmaceuticals, and profit-driven strategies [1]

宏观点评 20250801 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 从"十五五"规划看产业趋势 2025 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] 中国的五年规划是国家宏观调控、引导经济社会发展的重要手段。进入"十 一五"之后，整体的规划目标从追求规模扩张向追求质量效益转型。从结 构上来看，由于发展目标从规模扩张转向高质量发展，五年规划的目标重 点已经由经济增长转型为公共事务治理规划。"十四五"期间关于人民生活 相关的目标占比明显增加，同时还增加了完全不同于之前五年规划的安全 保障的部分。 尽管针对经济总量目标的要求从定量向定性要求转变，但仍然需要保持适 度的经济增长，才能实现宏观稳定和经济结构的优化。为了实现 2035 年 经济总量或人均国内生产总值比 2020 年翻一番，"十五五"阶段所隐含的 我国经济总量或需至少保持年均 4.5%左右的经济增长水平，对于当期的 经济体量来说，经济增长的整体要求并不低。与之相对应的，设立各产业 的增长目标和碳排放目标，是下一阶段规划中需要落实的重点。 我们统计了 2024 年以来各部委关于"十五五"规划的相关课题，整体来 看，课题旨在破解制约高质量发展的关键瓶颈， ...

另一方面，石油股跌幅明显，预计上半年净利同比下降39.5%-43.7%，中国石油(601857)化工跌近5%， 中国石油跌超2%，中资券商股、香港本地消费股、婴童概念股、煤炭股、教育股、保险股、汽车股多 数表现低迷。(格隆汇) | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | Virth | 24727.78 | -0.18% | | 800000 | | | | | 国企指数 800100 | VIARA | 8882.04 | -0.01% | | 恒生科技指数 | MAR | 5446.61 | -0.12% | | 800700 | | | | | 红筹指数 800151 | | 4237.39 | -0.29% | | 南方恒生科技 | mon | 5.350 | -0.09% | | 03033 | | | | 格隆汇8月1日｜港股上午盘三大指数呈现小幅震荡行情，较近日连续回调似有止跌之势。截止午盘，恒 生指数跌0.18%，国企指数微跌0.01%，恒生科技指数跌0.12%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | - ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities Index has decreased by 1.3% as of 11:15, with the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) trading volume nearing 8 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF has seen net inflows for 16 consecutive trading days, with a total net inflow of 11.1 billion in July, bringing the latest scale to 22.8 billion [1] - Huachuang Securities indicates that listed brokerages that have released performance forecasts or reports for the first half of 2025 show a year-on-year net profit increase of over 50%, highlighting potential investment opportunities in supply-side reforms and industry consolidation [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) is the only ETF product tracking the Hong Kong Securities Index, including 16 stocks such as CITIC Securities, Hong Kong Exchanges, and Guotai Junan [1] - The ETF supports T+0 trading and has a management fee rate of only 0.15% per year, facilitating investors' access to the Hong Kong stock market brokerage sector [1]

开源证券指出，市场交易量持续走高，中报预告超预期，稳定币带来催化，看好低估值龙头券商机会。 自营与两融业务表现稳健，财富管理转型具备差异化与长期潜力。基于行业轮动模型，8月行业组合中 非银金融板块入选，显示其短期配置价值。临近前期高点，建议关注非银、金融科技等领域的走势。当 前阶段，稳定型红利（含非银金融）在大变局下不确定性中枢上升的环境中仍具配置价值。 东方财富证券指出，券商行情主要得益于经济与政策驱动，历史超额收益多由流动性改善、政策发力和 经济企稳预期共振触发。当前中央政治局会议积极定调，强调财政与货币政策协同发力，经济企稳预期 逐步形成，叠加流动性充裕，构成券商板块配置窗口期。金融创新如虚拟资产业务有望显著增强券商盈 利能力，2030年稳定币相关收入或提升行业营收25%-72%，类比2014年创新业务对行业的拉动。基本面 方面，交投活跃、投融资改善及盈利结构优化共同推动盈利中枢上移。保险板块亦受益于利率企稳和预 定利率下调，利差损压力缓解。整体来看，非银金融行业在政策、创新及业绩多重利好下具备配置价 值。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline across the three major indices, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21 points, down 1.18%, with a trading volume of 845.893 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11009.77 points, down 1.73%, with a trading volume of 1,090.142 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2328.31 points, down 1.66%, with a trading volume of 541.201 billion [1] Sector Performance - Major sectors such as coal, steel, chemical fiber, oil, non-ferrous metals, real estate, brokerage, insurance, electricity, and liquor all saw declines [1] - Conversely, the AI industry chain stocks showed resilience, with liquid cooling servers and computing power concepts performing strongly [1] - The assisted reproduction concept also saw gains, along with active performance in brain engineering and innovative drug concepts [1]

Group 1 - Tencent has reduced its stake in China International Capital Corporation (CICC) by selling 4.96 million H-shares at an average price of HKD 21.16 per share, realizing approximately HKD 105 million [1] - Global asset management giants BlackRock and E Fund have increased their holdings in CICC, with BlackRock's stake rising to 5.01% and E Fund's to 5.13% [1] - The divergent actions of Tencent and the two asset management firms indicate differing valuations of brokerage stocks, which may lead to increased volatility in CICC's stock price [1] Group 2 - The total scale of private asset management products by brokerages has reached CNY 5.52 trillion, the highest since October of the previous year [2] - Fixed-income products dominate the private asset management offerings, accounting for CNY 4.55 trillion, which is 82.5% of the total [2] - The shift towards fixed-income products reflects a conservative market risk appetite and may enhance the risk resistance of brokerage asset management businesses [2] Group 3 - Several high-performing quantitative funds have recently implemented purchase limits due to a surge in inflows, with Guojin Fund adjusting its purchase threshold from CNY 10 million to CNY 10,000 [3] - The rapid inflow of funds has created management pressure, prompting fund companies to take measures to stabilize operations and protect existing investors [3] - The trend of limiting purchases in quantitative funds indicates a heightened market enthusiasm for quantitative strategies and a growing awareness of rational investment [3] Group 4 - Zheng Yu has officially taken over as Chairman and General Manager of W矿证券, marking the conclusion of a significant personnel adjustment within the company [4] - This leadership change is part of a broader personnel restructuring within China Minmetals Corporation, aimed at enhancing decision-making efficiency and strategic execution [4] - W矿证券 is focusing on becoming a "specialized investment bank," which may strengthen its bond underwriting capabilities and improve its service to new productive forces [4]

Key Points - The official manufacturing PMI for China in July is 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.1, with a composite PMI output index of 50.2 [5][9] - The value added of China's "three new" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) is projected to reach 24.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.7% compared to the previous year [5][9] - The photovoltaic industry index rebounded significantly in July, with a 9.73% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [15][16] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market in China remains the largest globally, with sales expected to reach 11.3 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40% [19][20] - The new energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with China's new energy storage capacity expected to reach 500,000 kilowatts by 2025 [26][27] - The engineering machinery and industrial robotics sectors are showing signs of recovery, with the machinery sector index rising by 7.35% in July [29][30] - The brokerage sector saw a significant increase in performance in June, with the brokerage index rising by 8.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [35][36]

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