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股指关注美元指数,债市或震荡运行
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 06:07
股指关注美元指数,债市 或震荡运行 2026-02-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格:鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员:张志恒 执业编号:F03102085 投资咨询号:Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 目 录 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源:iFinD、长江期货 p 国债走势回顾:30年期主力合约跌0.23%,10年期主力合约涨0.06%,5年期主力合约涨0.01%,2年期 主力合约持平。 p 核心观点:《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路,建设金融强国》。习近 平:发挥比较优势,坚持稳中求进,推动我国未来产业发展不断取得新突破。目前债市无显性重大利空,债 市总体上震荡偏多。但暂无更进一步推动利率下行的动力,经过年初以来的修复之后,配置盘可能已经建立 不少仓位。在当前位置上,如果不能吸引更多配置资金入场,债券收益率下方空间恐怕相当有限,债市可能 在一个相对比较窄的区间横盘,等待下一阶段主线的产生。国债或震荡运行。 p 技术分析:MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡运行。 p 策略展望:震荡运行。 p 风险提示: ...
库存稳步回升 预计锡价仍有进一步回落空间
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-02-02 06:04
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed significant declines, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting the limit down, falling by 11% to 392,650 yuan per ton [1] - The current trend for tin prices is a downward movement, with weak market performance observed [2] - Various institutions have provided insights on the future of tin prices, indicating a cautious approach due to high volatility influenced by market sentiment [2] Group 2 - GF Futures suggests that while supply-side recovery is gradually occurring, the low elasticity of the supply side and the long-term narrative of the AI arms race lead to a low bullish outlook for tin prices [2] - Donghai Futures notes a significant drop in precious metals, contributing to a clear decline in overall market sentiment, and anticipates further downward pressure on tin prices due to lack of fundamental support [2] - Wenkang Futures highlights a marginal easing in the supply-demand balance for tin ingots and a steady increase in inventory, predicting a substantial risk of short-term price correction [2]
全球秩序重塑叙事未发生逆转 沪银主力合约跌停
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-02-02 06:04
Group 1 - The domestic precious metals sector faced significant losses on February 2, with the main contract for silver futures hitting the limit down [1] - Dongwu Futures believes that the short-term adjustment does not alter the long-term upward trend, and the fundamental drivers for the long-term rise in precious metals have not experienced a substantial reversal [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures points out that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump triggered the sell-off, but the main factor is the accumulation of risks from previous excessive gains [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures indicates a short-term bearish outlook (1-2 weeks) and warns of liquidity risks, while the medium-term outlook (1-3 months) suggests that if the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts or geopolitical tensions escalate, silver prices may recover [1] - The market is advised to avoid blind bottom-fishing and to be cautious of extreme volatility [1]
大越期货甲醇周报-20260202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 06:04
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations. Inland, methanol factories are mainly focusing on active sales to maintain inventory before the Spring Festival, with relatively loose supply. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional downstream industries are gradually shutting down for holidays, and the fundamentals remain weak, suppressing the market. Meanwhile, some downstream industries still have restocking needs, and the methanol prices in production and sales regions are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales regions. Under the influence of both long and short factors, the inland methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In ports, the pressure boundary has risen to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level next week [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Next week, the domestic methanol market is likely to have low - level fluctuations. Inland market will be affected by supply and demand changes, and the port market will be restricted by the pressure boundary of 2400 [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: From January 23 to January 30, prices in different regions showed various changes. Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, Fujian increased by 1.32%, while Hebei decreased by 0.49%, and prices in Shandong (Lunan) and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [6]. - **Methanol Basis**: The spot price increased by 0.31%, and the futures price increased by 0.96%. The basis decreased by 15 [8]. - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - based production profit decreased by 49, natural gas - based production profit remained unchanged, and coke - oven gas - based production profit decreased by 324 [10]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: Nationally, the load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and in the northwest region, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - **Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads**: CFR China increased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 0.31%, and the spread remained unchanged [15]. - **Methanol Import Spread**: The import cost increased by 0.01%, and the import spread increased by 7 [18]. - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: Prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged, with a weekly change of 0.00% [25]. - **Formaldehyde Production and Load**: The production profit increased by 4, and the load increased by 0.01% to 30.98% [26]. - **Dimethyl Ether Production and Load**: The production profit increased by 14, and the load increased by 1.45% to 9.79% [28]. - **Acetic Acid Production and Load**: The production profit decreased by 4, and the load decreased by 1.29% to 72.32% [31]. - **MTO Production and Load**: The production profit decreased by 22, and the load decreased by 2.18% to 84.18% in the East China region [35]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: In the East China region, it increased by 0.79 to 59.58, and in the South China region, it decreased by 3.40 to 39.8 [36]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: Warehouse receipts decreased by 7.64% to 7153, and effective forecasts remained at 0 [39]. 3.3 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, with different durations and production losses [42]. - **Foreign Methanol Plants**: Plants in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including restarts, normal operations, and planned shutdowns [43]. - **Olefin Plants with Methanol - related Operations**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are in operation, maintenance, or have production plans, with different operating statuses and production capacities [44].
大越期货原油周报-20260202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:54
原油周报 (1.26-1.30) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周,原油震荡走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.74美元,周涨7.28%;伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.83美元, 周涨6.71%;中国原油期货SC主力合约收至470元/桶,周涨6.36%。美国总统特朗普重申对伊朗的威胁,一支舰队正驶向伊朗,希望伊朗能同美 国达成协议。伊朗方面则表示,邻国领土若被用于针对伊朗的敌对行动,这些邻国将被视为敌对方。此外,俄乌局势方面,周内乌克兰、美国 和俄罗斯代表团在阿布扎比举行三方会谈,与会各方在军事问题上取得一定进展,但在领土问题上仍未达成任何决定。地缘 ...
大越期货碳酸锂期货周报-20260202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:54
证券代码:839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一.回顾与展望 本周05合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为189220元/吨,周五收盘价为148200元/吨,周跌幅为21.60%。 供给端来看,本周碳酸锂产量为21569吨,高于历史同期平均水平,其中锂辉石产13244吨,环比减少 4.81%,高于历史同期平均水平,锂云母产2832吨,环比减少1.73%,高于历史同期平均水平,盐湖产3205 吨,环比增加2.89%,高于历史同期平均水平,回收产2288吨,环比减少0.78%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看,2025年12月碳酸锂需求量为130118实物吨,环比减少2.49%,预测下月需求量为11716 ...
白银接下来的剧本
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 05:37
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:发鹏期权说 作为今日行情的"中心",白银接下来的走势至关重要。 在沪银期货跌停后,沪银认沽期权盘中正疯狂计提着后续的风险。活久见的150%+波动率再度出现… 从博弈逻辑出发,晚上的剧本可能有这几种: 1.概率最大的情景:沪银期货夜盘开始阶段,经纪商"砍仓"杠杆多头,沪银相对国际银溢价大幅收缩。随后国内国际银价双双企稳走一段时间震荡行情消 化浮筹,期权隐含波动率陡降。 2.概率较小情景:沪银期货"砍仓"行情带动国际银价继续大跌,连锁效应促使国内国际银价继续崩跌,国内开始出现白银关联机构重大风险,随后相关部 门介入… 更大可能,是第一种,拭目以待吧。 PS:最近下边这类净值图应该比较多,见怪不怪了。 贵金属突然的崩跌也传导到了权益,资源股跟随银价跌停。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:发鹏期权说 贵金属突然的崩跌也传导到了权益,资源股跟随银价跌停。 活久见的行情,首先得活下来! 新浪合作平台中信建投期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑:李铁民 作为今日行情的"中心",白银接下来的走势至关重要。 在沪银期货 ...
大越期货沥青期货周报-20260202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:34
证券代码:839979 沥青期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周03合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为3150元/吨,周五收盘价为3424元/吨,周涨幅为8.70%。 供给端来看,根据隆众,2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨,环比降幅3.30%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为27.325%,环比减少1.20个百分点,全国样本企业出货21.445万吨,环比减少 5.80%,样本企业产量为45.6万吨,环比减少4.20%,样本企业装置检修量预估为102.2万吨,环比增加1.79% 。本周炼厂有所减产,降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.5%,环比减少0 ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20260202
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different market sectors on January 30, 2026, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 11884.99 billion yuan, a +10.93% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 18368.76 billion yuan, a - 1.55% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.31% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 3402.57 billion yuan, a -1.70% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 8866.10 billion yuan, a +1.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 38.16% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 19890.90 billion yuan, a +43.70% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7896.08 billion yuan, a -5.94% change; the trading - holding ratio was 234.64%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 27499.98 billion yuan, a +67.63% change; the holding amount was 6811.24 billion yuan, a -8.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 426.00% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 10753.22 billion yuan, a +60.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5194.85 billion yuan, a -2.45% change; the trading - holding ratio was 174.57% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 3604.70 billion yuan, a +14.87% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6321.50 billion yuan, a -3.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 52.24% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the black building material plate was 2498.60 billion yuan, a +25.48% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3116.39 billion yuan, a -1.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 75.28% [2]
镍及不锈钢:印尼配额待落地重心提升后构筑新区间:镍及不锈钢期货与期权2026年2月报告-20260202
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:18
镍及不锈钢期货与期权2026年2月报告 镍及不锈钢:印尼配额待落地 重心提升后构筑新区间 有色与新能源金属团队 杨莉娜 交易咨询号:Z0002618 2026年2月2日 www.founderfu.com 摘要 • 市场表现:2026年1月,镍及不锈钢期货开门红,镍期货在13.3-15.3万元之间波动,重心显著上移。不锈钢震荡上 行,重心同步提升,在13000-15000之间波动,重心低位上移,走势更为稳健。月末出现阶段获利了结。 • 宏观因素:全球科技、AI、能源转型发展倾向明显,地缘扰动、资源国民族主义提升供给端脆弱性,主要经济体货 币政策趋宽松,多因素提振有色金属整体牛市格局。阶段虽因美元反弹,以及地缘变化出现调整,但是长期逻辑未 改。 • 供需:强预期驱动:印尼镍矿扰动持续升温,从12月中下旬,即启动基于印尼收缩镍矿配额,全球供需形势可能从 过剩向紧平衡方向转变的行情,而印尼加大非法采矿惩罚力度、雨季供应扰动、可能对镍矿中钴、铁单独计税等, 从数量到镍产品其它成本均形成了较强的抬升预期,且菲律宾季节性矿端减产,矿端强势延续,矿价重心出现明显 回升。不过,印尼精炼镍新增产能、MHP新增投产预期仍存,未来 ...