Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The actual supply pressure may be less than last year. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China, and many are stocking up there. New - grain sales are fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2601 contract rebounded and was adjusted under pressure near 2190. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The basis of corn strengthened slightly, and the futures price was at a discount. The starch main 2601 contract was slightly adjusted, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly [5]. Supply - side Situation - **New - grain sales and production**: The national corn output increased to 3 billion tons, 5 million tons higher than the same period last year. As of November 20, the total national grain - sales progress was 27%, 2% faster year - on - year. If the sales progress continues, the expectation of tight supply later will increase [5]. - **Port inventory**: As of November 14, the corn inventory in the northern ports continued to rise to 117 million tons, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory of domestic and foreign - trade corn in Guangdong Port decreased [6]. - **Grain substitution and imports**: The wheat - corn price difference remained above 200, without substitution advantages. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but there was a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig farming was in a large - scale loss, but the short - term inventory was difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg - chicken farming continued to lose money. However, feed demand was strong. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was good. Starch processing enterprises continued to make profits, with a relatively high operating rate. Alcohol processing enterprises were in a large - scale loss, but the operating rate rose again. The operating rates of downstream starch - sugar and paper - making enterprises were relatively stable [7]. External Market Situation The U.S. corn on the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The U.S. government ended the shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report slightly reduced the U.S. corn yield per unit and output, but the ending inventory increased slightly, with relatively large supply pressure. The global corn ending inventory decreased slightly, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture report was neutral [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US September non - farm data was mixed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut was further dampened. The Fed's internal differences persisted, and the overall tone was hawkish. The risk appetite was generally weak. Domestically, the A - share market fell across the board with shrinking trading volume, and the bond market showed a differentiated trend [2][3]. - For precious metals, the strong non - farm employment data and the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on the prices of gold and silver, and they were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. - For copper, the rebound of the US dollar index led to an adjustment of copper prices. The macro situation and industrial fundamentals jointly affected the market, and it was expected that the short - term adjustment would continue [6][7]. - For aluminum, the strong non - farm data in the US weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the aluminum price was suppressed. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline, and the Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, etc., they were all affected by factors such as macro data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, showing different price trends such as wide - range fluctuations and shocks [12][16][18]. - For industrial products such as industrial silicon, soda ash, glass, and steel products, they were affected by factors such as production, inventory, and market demand, and their prices generally showed a trend of shock [19][25][27]. - For agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., they were affected by factors such as international trade, production progress, and policy expectations, and their prices fluctuated [30][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. The August data was revised downward to negative growth. The economic data failed to eliminate the uncertainty of the December FOMC. Multiple Fed officials focused on financial stability and high - valuation risks, with a generally hawkish tone. The market currently priced the probability of no rate cut in December at about 60%. The stock market had a sharp intraday reversal, the US dollar index fluctuated around 100, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, and gold, copper, and oil slightly closed down [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking to 1.72 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the decline. The debt market showed a differentiated trend. The long - term interest rate rose, and the short - term interest rate declined. There was a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the debt market might fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices slightly corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed increased differences among policymakers on a December rate cut. The US September non - farm employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The probability of a December rate cut was low. The US Department of Labor will combine and release the October and November employment data on December 16. It was maintained that the prices of gold and silver were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper adjusted downward. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper cooled down, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases due to high prices. The LME inventory rose to 158,000 tons. The September non - farm employment data in the US exceeded expectations, which further suppressed the expectation of a December rate cut. The WBMS data showed a shortage of 81,000 tons of global refined copper supply in September, and China's imports of refined copper in October decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. It was expected that the copper price would continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,806.5/ton, down 0.28%. The strong non - farm growth in the US in September weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the aluminum price. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, mainly because the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices increased due to the decline in the absolute price. However, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline as consumption entered the off - season. The Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The overall supply of alumina was still in excess, the tender purchase price of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline, driving the spot price down. The market was dominated by a bearish atmosphere and continued to operate weakly [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The cost of cast aluminum was affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand side still had resilience. The rigid demand procurement would support the price at the bottom, and the price of ADC12 might stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and opened higher at night. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased. The import volume of zinc ore and refined zinc in October decreased compared with the previous month. The LME inventory increased since early November, and the risk of a short squeeze decreased. The zinc price lacked a trend and maintained a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The import volume of lead concentrate in October decreased compared with the previous month. The social inventory decreased slightly this week. After the delivery of the current - month contract, the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute inventory was still low. The supply in some regions was tight, but the demand was difficult to boost. It was expected that the lead price would maintain a shock - adjustment trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated weakly during the day and opened slightly higher at night. The overseas tin mine复产 was slow, the domestic tin ore import volume in October still had a large year - on - year decline, and the raw material gap still existed, which restricted the release of refined tin production. The performance of NVIDIA exceeded expectations, and the AI demand still had room for imagination. However, in the short term, the Fed was likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in December, and the tin price would maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation [17][18]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side was affected by the decline in production in the southwest region during the dry season, and the supply margin decreased. The demand side was affected by factors such as the weakening of the market sentiment of polysilicon and the over - supply of battery cells. The market sentiment was repeated, and it was expected that the industrial silicon price would fluctuate within a range in the short term [19][20]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated widely, and the spot price rose. The exchange introduced a position - limit policy, which suppressed the bullish sentiment. The downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand, and the consumption still had an increase. The fundamental situation had not shown signs of weakness, but the bullish sentiment was cautious, and the lithium price might fluctuate widely [21][22]. 3.12 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price was weak. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. The cost of nickel ore remained high, squeezing the upstream profit. The demand for nickel sulfate entered the off - season, and the price declined. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the strength of cost support [23][24]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. The production of soda ash decreased, the opening rate declined, but the shipment volume increased, driving the inventory to decrease. The glass fundamentals were relatively weak, with the upstream opening rate decreasing and the enterprise inventory still accumulating. There were rumors that the real - estate industry might receive policy support, and it was expected that the prices would fluctuate at a low level [25][26]. 3.14 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory decline widened. However, the downstream steel entered the consumption off - season, the outdoor construction decreased, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained high. It was expected that the steel price would fluctuate [27]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures fluctuated. The supply of iron ore was under pressure, and the demand side had a short - term recovery in iron - water production, but the medium - term production - reduction expectation remained unchanged. It was expected that the iron - ore price would fluctuate under pressure [28]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The coking profit rebounded significantly this week, the demand for coking coal was restricted, and the mine production capacity utilization rate increased. It was expected that the prices would fluctuate weakly [29]. 3.17 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures declined. China continued to purchase US soybeans, and the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was lagging. The external - market price declined, and the import - cost support weakened. It was expected that the short - term soybean - meal price would fluctuate [30][31]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil futures declined. The US non - farm data was contradictory, the international oil price declined, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November decreased, and the sentiment of the US biodiesel policy cooled down. It was expected that the palm - oil price would fluctuate in the short term [32][34].

2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%报 115.870 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.485 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.935 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.462 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 20 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3000 亿元 7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is still relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by the rise in US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The port and production - area prices are rising due to traders' price - increasing acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality. Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. The overall supply is slightly abundant, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3017 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2412 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of last Friday, the soybean sowing in Mato Grosso was 96.36% complete, up 10.68% from the previous week. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 471 tons, up from the previous forecast of 426 tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory is still high, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventories on a rolling basis. The price was supported by US soybean prices and import costs last week [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: Brazil's wheat exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 29 tons, a 202% increase from the same period last year. The estimated wheat exports from January to November are 177 tons, lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn from the Northeast and North China is on the market. The price is rising due to traders' acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' behavior [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is expected to remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. With ample supply, the raw sugar price will likely stay weak. In the Chinese market, the old - sugar stock has been mostly cleared, new - sugar pressure is increasing, and the October import volume exceeded expectations, so the overall sugar market is expected to be weak [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Related Products**: The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean meal supply is abundant. The downward space of the current futures price is limited, but it is difficult to strengthen based on cost and profit logic alone. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Pig**: The market supply has recovered, and the price has weakened again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the mid - term price is not optimistic, and the increased selling enthusiasm after price recovery is not conducive to the near - month futures market. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [6]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are stable, supported by strong demand in the USDA report. In the domestic market, the short - term pressure from new cotton listing and high production, combined with weak downstream demand, may lead to a weak cotton price within a certain range, although the relatively low inventory of downstream spinning enterprises provides some support [8]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast is sufficient but the selling enthusiasm is low, and the market is quiet with stable prices. In North China, the number of trucks at deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price has slightly increased. With about 20% of the new - season corn sold, there is still selling pressure. The demand from deep - processing and feed sectors is not strong. The corn market will have intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term [10]. - **Edible Oils**: For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may stop falling and strengthen after stabilizing at 4150 ringgit. The domestic palm oil may rise to the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. The overall view is near - weak and far - strong. For soybean oil, the CBOT soybean oil is in a short - term correction. The domestic soybean oil demand is weak, but the poor crushing profit provides some support, and the support for the January contract is around 8200 yuan [13]. - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory remains high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased, the ICE raw sugar主力 slightly increased, the 1 - 5 spread widened, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, the Nanning basis decreased, and the Kunming basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national and Guangxi sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the national sales rate decreased, the Guangxi sales rate increased, the national industrial inventory decreased, and the Guangxi and Yunnan industrial inventories increased. The sugar import volume increased [2]. Soybean Meal and Related Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot and futures prices of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased, the basis decreased significantly, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans increased, the futures prices of bean one and bean two decreased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - month spreads, the oil - meal ratio, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed to different degrees [4]. Pig - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2601 and 2605 decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the main - contract position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions decreased, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators changed slightly [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: The sample - point daily slaughter volume increased slightly, the weekly white - strip price decreased, the weekly piglet price increased, the sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased slightly, the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased slightly [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton主力 decreased, the 5 - 1 spread widened, the main - contract position decreased, the warehouse receipt increased, and the valid forecast decreased [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index increased slightly, the FC Index decreased, and the basis of 3128B to 01 and 05 contracts increased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories, the bonded - area inventory, and the cotton out - of - Xinjiang shipment volume increased month - on - month. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days, and the clothing and textile exports changed to different degrees [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the south - north trade profit decreased, the import profit decreased, the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 01 spread remained unchanged, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the position increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [10]. Edible Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, the warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the inter - month spread decreased [13]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased significantly, the import cost decreased, the import profit decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [13]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot and futures prices decreased, the basis decreased, the warehouse receipt decreased slightly, and the inter - month spread increased [13]. - **Spreads**: The inter - month spreads, the bean - palm spread, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to different degrees [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 12 and 01 contracts increased, the basis decreased, and the 12 - 01 spread increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price increased slightly, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased [15].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/21 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 美国农业部：10月2日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增92.44万吨，符合预期 美国农业部（USDA）周四公布的出口销售报告显示，10月2日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增91.94万 吨，市场预估为净增60-160万吨。 当周，美国下一年度大豆出口销售净增0.5万吨。市场预估为净增0吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船72.05万吨。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售96.98万吨，下一市场年度大豆新销售0.5万吨。 美国大豆市场年度为9月1日至次年8月31日。 美国农业部：民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆 据美国农业部（USDA）网站11月20日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付 运。 ITS：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量环比减少20.5% 船货检验机构Intertek Testing Services（简称ITS）发布的数据显示，马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油产品出口量为 831,005吨，较上月同期出口的1,044,784吨减少20.5%。 AmS ...

Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance of various futures contracts across different sectors, highlighting price changes and trends over multiple time frames. Group 1: Financial and Precious Metals - The Shanghai Composite 300 futures decreased by 0.69%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.81% [8] - The SHFE gold futures rose by 0.22%, while the year-to-date increase stands at 48.84% [8] - The SHFE silver futures increased by 0.75%, with a year-to-date increase of 58.85% [8] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Materials - SHFE copper futures rose by 0.19%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.92% [9] - SHFE aluminum futures decreased by 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.10% [9] - GFEX lithium carbonate futures increased by 0.84%, with a year-to-date increase of 28.12% [9] Group 3: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures fell by 1.01%, with a year-to-date decrease of 11.67% [10] - DCE iron ore futures decreased by 0.32%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.21% [10] - DCE coking coal futures dropped by 3.17%, with a year-to-date decrease of 18.57% [10] Group 4: Agricultural Products - DCE soybean meal futures decreased by 0.46%, with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [11] - CZCE apple futures increased by 1.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 36.24% [11] - DCE live hog futures fell by 1.00%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.55% [11] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - INE crude oil futures decreased by 1.66%, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.97% [12] - DCE ethylene glycol futures fell by 2.05%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.88% [12] - CZCE soda ash futures dropped by 2.93%, with a year-to-date decrease of 26.95% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices have started a short - term upward trend due to tightened supply in production areas and downstream replenishment demand, with farmers' selling intention being a key factor. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is tight, and prices are expected to rise after the release of farmers' selling pressure [2] - Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices in the short - term. High inventory suppresses prices, and downstream consumption rhythm is crucial for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import policies, with domestic sugar cost as support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through. A high - short strategy is maintained, but the downward space is limited [4] - Cotton production is estimated to have decreased. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial for textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [6] - Egg prices have a slightly upward - moving price center due to supply and demand factors. The acceleration of the elimination process will drive prices up [10] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory has decreased compared to last year [14] - Pig prices are in a weak and volatile situation in the short - term, with mid - term supply pressure remaining. Attention should be paid to factors such as the selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment [14] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, prices in different regions showed some changes. For example, the price in Changchun remained at 2070, while in other regions like Jinzhou, there were fluctuations. The basis changed from - 25 to 2, and the trade profit and import profit also changed [2] - **Starch Price Data**: During the same period, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2700 and 2800 respectively, with the basis changing from 150 to 232 and the processing profit changing from 9 to - 1 [2] Sugar - **Sugar Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 45, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 446 [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Cotton Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the 3128 cotton price increased by 20, and the import profit and other data also changed [6] - **Cotton Yarn Price Data**: The Vietnam yarn spot price remained stable, while the import profit decreased by 18, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 21 [6] Eggs - **Egg Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in main production areas remained relatively stable, and the basis decreased by 61. The prices of substitute products such as broilers and pigs changed little [10] Apples - **Apple Price Data**: The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 from 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20. The national cold - storage inventory decreased, with Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu all having lower inventory levels than last year [14] Pigs - **Pig Price Data**: From 2025/11/14 to 2025/11/20, the prices in different production areas fluctuated slightly, and the basis increased by 70 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, while other sectors like by - products, soft commodities, and grains also have their own market trends. For example, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, and cotton is in a weak consolidation state [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,108, down 2 with a decline of 0.05%; the latest price of soybean meal (M2601) is 3,017, up 4 with an increase of 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.72 with a change of 0.24, and the open interest PCR is 1.12 with a change of - 0.05 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of different options are different. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support point is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility of different options shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.38, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.73 with a change of - 0.10 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, and the market has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, trading volume,提货量, and inventory have changed. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, the spot basis of oils has risen slightly, and inventory is decreasing. The market is in a low - level consolidation state. Option - wise, implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates support at the bottom. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Fundamentally, the price is affected by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell. The market is in a weak and downward state. Option - wise, implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak and volatile market. The strategy is to hold a long spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pig**: Fundamentally, the spot price has declined, and the market is in a weak state. Option - wise, implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: Fundamentally, the laying hen inventory has changed. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Option - wise, implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Fundamentally, the supply has decreased in quality and quantity, and the price has increased. The market is in a high - level consolidation state. Option - wise, implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong support at the bottom. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Fundamentally, the purchase price in the production area has changed. The market is in a weak and downward state. Option - wise, implied volatility has risen rapidly above the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, sugar production and exports in Brazil and India have changed. The market is in a weak and downward state. Option - wise, implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, the progress of cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales has changed. The market is in a short - term weak state. Option - wise, implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the average price of corn has increased. The market is in a weak rebound state. Option - wise, implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13].