玻璃： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-21 每日观点 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策提振市场情绪；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产 量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1081元/吨，基差为7元，期货 贴水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6493.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.22%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好提振情绪，玻璃基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策，光伏玻璃行业 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 326 points, marking a weekly increase of 686 points or 2.8%, continuing its upward trend for the second consecutive week [3] - The trading volume for the day was approximately 238.69 billion [3] - Notable stock performances included China Life Insurance rising by 5.1% and ZTO Express increasing by 6.5%, while Xinyi Solar fell by 3.4% [3] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Securities and Futures Commission has reappointed three executive directors for a term of three years, effective from August 1, August 28, and November 1 [6] - The total number of registered local companies in Hong Kong has surpassed 1.49 million, a historical high, with 84,293 new companies registered in the first half of the year [7] Group 3: Economic Support Measures - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized the need to support economic recovery and high-quality urban development through enhanced financial supply [8] - The administration aims to strengthen consumer protection and prevent illegal financial activities while promoting effective investment financing [8] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Xinyi Glass anticipates a profit decline of 55% to 65% for the first half of the year, primarily due to decreased revenue and gross profit from its float glass business [10] - XPeng Motors' founder stated that China may surpass the U.S. in L2 and L3 autonomous driving technology due to faster market acceptance and regulatory support [11] - Huajian Medical has initiated the process for a stablecoin license in the U.S. as part of its strategy to develop a tokenization platform for real-world assets [12] - United Pharmaceutical announced a share placement at a discount of approximately 7.9%, aiming to raise about 2.2 billion for capital expenditures and R&D [13]

Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0011243 [1] Glass Market Supply - As of July 17, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to July 10. The daily loss of float glass was 42,200 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 239,000 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 10,530 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. The potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [11][12][13] - Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - operation capacity is about 158,000 tons/day, with a peak capacity of 178,000 tons/day in 2021 and a recent low - level capacity of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period and a 7.0% decrease year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders basically maintained the previous level, with no sign of improvement in demand, and the current profit level was still low, with a few reporting a continued decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.163 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a 3.22% decrease, and a 0.29% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in most regions decreased slightly [3][37]. Price and Profit - This week's transactions were basically stable, with most prices unchanged. Some prices in Shahe increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased prices by 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [20][23]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was weak. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas and coal fuel was about - 183 - 108 yuan/ton [26][31]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating strongly, with upper pressure at 1,180 - 1,200 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [4]. Photovoltaic Glass Market Price and Profit - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased slightly, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.33% decrease from the previous period, and the decline rate increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, remaining flat compared to the previous period [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - As the market weakens, it may enter a production reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity was about 94,000 tons/day. The sample inventory days were about 35.64 days, a 2.94% increase from the previous period, and the increase rate narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared to last week [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Market Supply - This week, soda ash enterprises' equipment gradually resumed and increased production. The domestic soda ash output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Some enterprises were in the process of maintenance or production reduction, and some were expected to have maintenance in the future [6][59]. Demand - The profits of downstream float glass processes have gradually improved, especially the profit of coal - gas production is relatively optimistic, but the production of petroleum coke and natural gas is still in a loss state. Photovoltaic glass profit is at a low level. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are generally cautious in purchasing soda ash, and demand has not expanded significantly [6]. Inventory - This period, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous period and a 111.85% increase year - on - year. The inventory of light soda ash was 783,000 tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1226 million tons, an increase of 505,000 tons from the previous period [7]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton. This week's prices changed little. The basis was weak, and the monthly spread was under pressure. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 39.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 82 yuan/ton [70][73][81]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, with upper pressure at 1,320 - 1,340 and lower support at 1,220 and 1,150. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal, which is expected to drive demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings. This will lead to significant improvements in the real estate chain's fundamentals [3] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader), Weixing New Materials (high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary companies include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader) [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission's action plan for the cement industry aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 0.23% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.32 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 7.17%, while the construction materials index increased by 4.36%, underperforming by 2.82 percentage points. In the past year, the CSI 300 index rose by 14.68%, and the construction materials index increased by 16.62%, outperforming by 1.94 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 280.87 CNY/ton, down 0.71% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 67.24%, up 1.35 percentage points [6][27] - The report highlights regional price variations, with Northeast China stable, North China up by 0.74%, and East China down by 1.90% [26] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of July 18, 2025, was 1214.63 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week. The inventory of float glass nationwide decreased by 175 million weight boxes, a decline of 3.05% [82][84] - The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [89] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3300 to 4100 CNY/ton, with variations depending on the manufacturer [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 18, 2025, the price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, and up 2.93% year-to-date. The price of titanium dioxide was 13050 CNY/ton, down 1.14% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Beixin Building Materials and "Overweight" for Weixing New Materials [5][9]. Core Views - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to boost infrastructure in Tibet [2]. - The cement industry is currently experiencing a demand downturn, but supply-side adjustments, such as staggered production halts, are anticipated to improve the situation [2][3]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand contradictions, but the recent self-discipline production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some of these issues [2][6]. - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with significant potential for market share growth [2][6]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, particularly in wind power demand, while electronic fiberglass prices remain stable amid supply-demand differentiation [2][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 18, 2025, the national cement price index is 343.37 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.7828 million tons, up 2.09% [3][16]. - Infrastructure remains the only positive demand driver for cement, but local government funding pressures persist [3][16]. - The cement industry is expected to see structural opportunities in key regions like Sichuan-Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta [3][16]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1211.96 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.58% [6][31]. - Inventory levels for sample enterprises have decreased, indicating a potential for short-term replenishment demand [6][31]. - The market remains cautious, with limited order improvements expected in the near term [6][31]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass has shown slight weakness, while demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains relatively strong [7]. - The electronic fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with high-end products seeing a notable supply-demand gap [7]. Consumption Building Materials - The consumption building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, supported by declining prices of upstream raw materials [6][7]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are highlighted for their growth potential in this sector [5][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs at 106,400 yuan/ton and a negative profit margin [8]. - Demand is expected to grow in sectors like wind power and hydrogen storage, although recovery is gradual [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"政策提振市场情绪；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产 量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1092元/吨，基差为-4元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6493.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.22%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面不改偏弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The glass market is experiencing a fierce short - term tug - of war between bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes at a key support level, one can consider going long; otherwise, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7]. - The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, after adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. - The iron ore market maintains a bullish technical trend, and the positive feedback in the industrial chain continues [15]. - The glass market continues to follow a bullish technical trend, although the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19]. - For methanol, due to the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23]. Summary by Category Glass - Fundamentals: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. Glass social inventory has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold - repair of production lines such as those of Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support to supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industry News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold - repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The supply has further decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for the subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a small position. The bearish forces in the glass market are concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract are showing a decreasing trend, indicating intensified market divergence [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Trend: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext performing the strongest. The market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7][8]. Gold - Market News: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut within the year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Technical Analysis: After adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Macro Environment: The macro environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the high pig iron output due to decent steel mill profits has maintained a positive feedback in the industrial chain [16]. - Technical Analysis: The price continued to rise today, and the bullish view persists [15]. Methanol - Inventory Data: As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. The port inventory has continued to accumulate this week, and a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23].

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/18 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | | | | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1083.0 | 1070.0 | 1092.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1156.0 | 1164.0 | 1164.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1174.0 | 1162.0 | 1168.0 | -6.0 | 6.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 11 ...

Core Insights - The event "Industry Connection Wins Business Port" held in Xuzhou Huaihai International Port Area aims to enhance collaboration between enterprises and government, focusing on practical outcomes rather than traditional meeting formats [1] - The event gathered over 40 representatives from government, enterprises, and banks to facilitate resource sharing and cooperation, promoting a new model for optimizing the business environment [1][2] - The port area has seen significant growth in logistics services, with various companies showcasing their capabilities and forming preliminary cooperation agreements during the event [2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured six key segments, including policy interpretation, enterprise promotion, and government-enterprise interaction, emphasizing the role of enterprises [1] - No designated speaking area was set up, allowing all companies to freely discuss and explore development opportunities [1] - A service card and company directory were distributed to ensure ongoing support for enterprises, facilitating connections based on their needs [1] Group 2: Logistics and Industry Highlights - Xuzhou Huaihai International Port has successfully operated 219 international trains from January to June, exceeding annual targets [3] - The port's iron-sea combined transport has shipped 9,996 standard containers, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.22% [3] - The port area has enhanced its service functions, with trade volume in bonded warehouses reaching approximately 9.56 billion yuan, of which 9.06 billion yuan was imports [4] Group 3: Future Initiatives - The port area plans to establish a long-term mechanism for matching supply and demand, ensuring that cooperation extends beyond the event [5] - The integration of a dynamic information database will facilitate ongoing updates and precise matching of enterprise needs with available resources [4][5] - The development of a modern sewage treatment plant with an investment of approximately 120 million yuan is underway, expected to process 10,000 tons of wastewater daily, contributing to sustainable regional development [4]