Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The economic data in August generally continued to decline and fell short of expectations, with economic growth continuing to slow down. The overall domestic demand economic data in August continued to slow down, with investment continuing to slow down and slightly lower than market expectations, consumption growth slightly declining and lower than market expectations, and industrial production slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down, and the domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. The supply side also slowed down due to factors such as domestic demand slowdown and anti - involution. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed a state of weak demand and relatively abundant supply, which weakened the support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities. The data announced this time continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide was 5.2%, lower than the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 5.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Mainly due to strong external demand, but also affected by domestic anti - involution and environmental protection production restrictions, the operating rate of industrial enterprises declined, and the industrial production growth rate decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. By major categories, in August, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4%. In the second half of the year, as the US replenishment demand gradually weakened, the overall industrial production growth rate in China might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. Domestic Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the slowdown in the subsidy intensity of the consumer goods trade - in policy. Currently, the effect of the consumer goods trade - in policy has weakened, and the retail sales of commodities in categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, automobiles, and sports and entertainment products by units above the designated size have slowed down, but service consumption has rebounded. In the later stage, with the continuous implementation and effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption will pick up [4]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed - asset investment was 0.4%, far lower than the expected 1.4% and a significant drop of 1.1% from the previous value of 1.6%. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing investment continued to decline, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in the short term, and real estate investment remained weak [4]. Real Estate - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 19.9%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing sales area was - 11%, with the decline expanding by 2.6 percentage points from the previous value, and the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales was - 14.8%, with the decline expanding by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the high - base effect formed by the "5.17 real estate new policy" last year and the weakening of the effect of real estate policy stimulus. The real estate market continued to recover slowly, and the real estate prosperity remained low and had slowed down for five consecutive months. However, with the slowdown of the real estate market, more incremental real estate policies were expected to be introduced [4]. Infrastructure Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 5.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value of - 5.1%. Although the issuance speed of special bonds accelerated, due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather and poor fund arrival, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4]. Manufacturing Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point from the previous value of - 0.3%. It slowed down significantly due to the high base effect last year and domestic anti - involution. Currently, high - tech industries maintained a high - growth level, and the large - scale equipment renewal policy continued to take effect, which provided strong support for manufacturing investment. In the future, on the one hand, with the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the exit of backward production capacity, manufacturing enterprise profits were expected to gradually bottom out and recover, and the willingness of enterprises to make capital expenditures might increase; on the other hand, the possible slowdown of the US replenishment demand in the second half of the year would weaken the short - term driving force for manufacturing investment [5]. Impact on Bulk Commodities - In the short term, the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market was negatively affected as the data continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market continued to rebound this week with an oscillating upward trend. The growth style performed well, driving up TMT-themed funds. However, many quantitative index-enhanced products still had mediocre excess returns. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by 10.63% week-on-week. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the chips in high-position sectors will loosen and differentiate, and the market will shift from a unilateral rise to a range-bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on the supplementary rise opportunities of low-position sectors. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, with the IM contract having a large discount and the IF contract having a large premium. In the upcoming week with a dense schedule of important macroeconomic events, the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile and relatively strong market. It is recommended to focus on technology frontier tracks such as robotics and AI computing power, and also seize the rotation and supplementary rise opportunities of sectors such as securities, pig cycles, and games. After a deep adjustment, the national debt market has shown rare allocation value, and investors are advised to moderately increase the allocation ratio [1][11][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - The A-share market continued to rebound this week, with the growth style performing well and driving up TMT-themed funds. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 10.63%. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, and the average and median returns of neutral hedge funds this week were -0.06% and -0.08% respectively. This week, the electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, media, and computer sectors led the gains. The real estate and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors had a relatively large increase in the weekly trading volume ratio compared with last week, while the trading activity of the comprehensive finance and national defense and military industry sectors decreased significantly. The real estate sector rose 5.82% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 1.50%. The power equipment and new energy sector only rose 0.50% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 9.04%, and the sector may face short-term adjustment pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Market Style - This week, the growth style index rose 3.56%, and the weekly trading volume ratio slightly decreased to 58.73%. The consumption style index rose 0.88%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to 11.85%. The financial style index performed weakly in the past month, rising only 0.24% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased significantly to a new low in the past four weeks at 5.59%. The cyclical style index rose 1.87%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 20.69%. The stable style index rose 1.14%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased significantly to a new high in the past four weeks at 3.13%. Based on the CSI A-share index, the CSI 500 index led the gains this week, rising 3.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 19.03%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index only rose 1.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased to 27.65%. In the past three months, the market has shown highly structured characteristics, and the CSI 500 index has performed strongly. In an environment with abundant liquidity, funds clearly prefer opportunities with certainty, driving the collective supplementary rise of high-quality leading stocks in various industries [15]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Thematic Tracks This Week - The report screened single-track and double-track funds based on six sectors: TMT, financial real estate, consumption, medicine, manufacturing, and cycle. Single-track funds are those with a position in a certain sector greater than 70% for multiple consecutive periods, and double-track funds are those with positions in two sectors both greater than 30% for multiple consecutive periods. The report listed the top five funds in each sector in terms of performance this week [20][21]. 3.2.2 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Strategy Classifications - The report improved the growth, BP, and profit factors to obtain growth, valuation, and quality factors, and divided the funds into different types such as deep undervaluation, high growth, high quality, quality growth, quality undervaluation, GARP, and balanced cost-effectiveness. It also listed the funds with relatively excellent performance in different types of funds this week [22]. 3.3 Index-Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 Distribution of Excess Returns of Index-Enhanced Funds This Week - This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.65%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, the STAR 50 rose 5.48%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.07%. The representative indexes of the value style sector, such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, rose 0.89%, 1.54%, and 1.38% respectively, while the representative indexes of the growth style sector, such as the Small and Medium 100, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, rose 3.66%, 3.38%, 2.45%, and 2.16% respectively. The report also listed the average and median excess returns of different index-enhanced funds and the top three funds in terms of excess returns in each category this week [25][26][30]. 3.4 This Week's Fund High-Frequency Position Detection - After excluding funds with high positions in Hong Kong stocks and Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, funds with a scale of less than 200 million yuan, industry-themed funds, and quantitative funds, the results showed that active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the basic chemical (0.61%), machinery (0.24%), and power equipment and new energy (0.19%) industries this week, and significantly reduced their positions in the electronics (0.55%), computer (0.41%), and national defense and military industry (0.19%) industries. From a one-month perspective, the positions in the electronics (2.12%) and communication (0.97%) industries increased significantly, while the positions in the banking (1.11%) and automobile (1.04%) industries decreased significantly [3][43].

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model [5][27] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance. It selects industries with strong upward momentum for allocation [26][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the diffusion index for each industry, which reflects the proportion of stocks in the industry with positive momentum. - Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-performing industries are selected for portfolio allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (0.99), Banking (0.969), Communication (0.951), Steel (0.95), Non-ferrous Metals (0.947), Retail (0.934) [27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it captured trends effectively in 2021, it struggled during market reversals in 2024. It has been tracking performance for four years [26][27]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: 4.53% [25][30] - September 2025 average weekly return: 2.79%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model [6][33] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities [38]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level volume and price data to generate industry factors. - Industries are ranked based on their GRU factor scores, and the top-ranked industries are selected for allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (4.56), Construction (3.8), Real Estate (3.6), Textile & Apparel (0.08), Comprehensive Finance (-0.07), Home Appliances (-0.16) [6][34]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. It has faced challenges in capturing excess returns in 2025 due to concentrated market themes [33][38]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -7.37% [33][36] - September 2025 average weekly return: 1.70%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: -0.23% [36] Backtesting Results of Models Diffusion Index Model - **YTD Excess Return**: 4.53% [25][30] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 2.79% [30] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **YTD Excess Return**: -7.37% [33][36] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 1.70% [36] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: -0.23% [36]

Group 1: Real Estate and Consumption Market Overview - In the first half of 2024, the national sales amount and area of commercial housing decreased by 25.0% and 19.0% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline narrowed to around 14% in June due to increased supply from developers and the effects of the 517 policy [9][11]. - The second-hand housing market adopted a "price-for-volume" strategy, with 21 cities experiencing a smaller decline in transaction area compared to new homes, and first-tier cities seeing a recovery in transactions [11][12]. - The retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 235,969 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [14]. Group 2: Furniture Industry Trends - In the first half of 2024, revenue for large-scale furniture enterprises reached 310.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while profits totaled 13.78 billion yuan, up 3.8% [18]. - The global furniture e-commerce market has reached a 30% share, with the overall furniture market expected to reach 766.2 billion USD in 2024 [18]. - The furniture industry in China saw a revenue decline of 4.4% in 2023, but the number of enterprises continues to grow [18]. Group 3: Consumer Trends in Space and Key Categories - Consumers are increasingly focused on specific space needs, prioritizing children's rooms and elderly rooms, with independent fitness spaces and dressing rooms becoming popular additions [24][25]. - There is a growing preference for natural and environmentally friendly materials, with significant increases in searches for wood, genuine leather, and pure cotton-linen materials [25]. - Popular styles include vintage, retro, and cream aesthetics, with topics like "small apartments appearing larger" and "practical space-saving" generating over 100 million views [25][26]. Group 4: Key Product Categories - In the sofa category, leather sofas have surpassed fabric sofas in volume, with functional sofas and popular models like the "Big Black Cow" performing well [18][40]. - For beds, leather has become mainstream, with black walnut wood and first-layer cowhide materials gaining popularity, and floating beds and electric smart beds showing high growth rates [18]. - In tables, solid wood dining tables, electric lift tables, and home tea tables are the main growth drivers, particularly in small apartments where island dining tables are favored [18].

1至8月，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，增速较1至7月回落1.1个百分点，其中民间投资同比下降2.3%。 对于民间投资下降，付凌晖分析，今年以来，受国际环境变化、房地产市场调整等因素影响，民间投资有所放 缓，但扣除房地产开发投资，民间项目投资基本稳定。 1至8月，基础设施投资同比增长2.0%，制造业投资同比增长5.1%，明显快于全部投资增速。房地产开发投资同比 下降12.9%。 国家统计局15日发布的最新数据显示，前8个月主要生产、需求指标保持平稳增长，规模以上工业增加值、服务业 生产指数、社会消费品零售总额、货物进出口增速与1至7月基本相当。经济增长"稳"没有改变。 从8月当月数据看，规模以上工业增加值，服务业生产指数等数据的同比增速较7月略有回落。国家统计局新闻发 言人付凌晖表示，从下阶段情况来看，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，宏观政策发力显效，改 革开放持续深化，国内国际双循环逐步畅通，将支撑经济平稳运行和向好发展。 装备制造业和高技术制造业增势较好 8月份，工业生产较快增长，工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.37%。装备制造业和高技术制造业增势较好， 分别同比增长8.1%和9. ...

港股上午盘三大指数呈现低开高走行情，恒生科技指数涨幅领先，午间收涨1.11%再刷阶段高位，恒生 指数涨0.29%，国企指数涨0.34%，市场做多情绪继续活跃。盘面上，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集 体拉升转涨，阿里巴巴涨约3%，网易、小米涨超1%，快手、京东、美团、腾讯均有涨幅，惟百度跌近 2%；锂电池股涨幅明显，多重利好推动宁德时代股价飙升超7%，并且创下上市新高价，赣锋锂业、中 航创新、比亚迪股份跟涨；工信部发布汽车行业稳增长工作方案的同时，将持续优化促消费优惠政策， 汽车股集体上涨，蔚来汽车、理想汽车涨超5%领衔；生物医药股、煤炭股、脑机接口概念股、半导体 股多数表现活跃。另一方面，首8月全国房地产开发投资同比降12.9%，个人按揭贷款下降10.5%，内房 股集体走弱，影视股、重型机械股、餐饮股、中资券商股、濠赌股多数表现低迷。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market collectively rose in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3879.29 points, up 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13061.86 points, up 1.07%, and the ChiNext Index at 3084.68 points, up 2.13% [1]. Sector Performance - The gaming sector led the gains with an increase of 3.59%, followed by the electric machinery sector at 2.00% and the battery sector at 1.93% [2]. - Other notable sectors include the automotive complete vehicles sector, which rose by 1.90%, and the automotive parts sector, which increased by 1.68% [2]. - Conversely, the small metals, cultural media, and precious metals sectors experienced the largest declines, with the small metals sector down by 1.64% and the cultural media sector also down by 1.64% [2]. Trading Volume and Net Inflow - The total trading volume for the gaming sector was 1182.34 million hands, with a net inflow of 199.55 billion yuan [2]. - The electric machinery sector had a trading volume of 783.71 million hands and a net inflow of 195.23 billion yuan [2]. - In contrast, the small metals sector saw a trading volume of 781.08 million hands with a net outflow of 23.94 billion yuan [2].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.11% [1] - The financial and real estate sectors experienced a pullback, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The precious metals sector showed mixed performance, suggesting varying investor interest and market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry chain demonstrated strength, highlighting potential growth opportunities within this sector [1]

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 综合 | | | | 综艺股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | -1.42 | 67.27 | 15.41 | 柳钢股份 | -4.60 | | 通信 | -1.44 | 622.62 | -27.13 | 三维通信 | -7.02 | | 房地产 | -1.44 | 195.27 | 0.99 | 福星股份 | -9.83 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指跌0.13%，A股成交量720.17亿股，成交金额11547.08 亿元，比上一个交易日减少5.19%。个股方面，1720只个股上涨，其中涨停47只，3570只个股下跌，其 中跌停9只。从申万行业来看，电力设备、汽车、农林牧渔等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.71%、1.76%、 1.49%；房地产、通信、钢铁等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.44%、1.44%、1.42%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is imminent, which will benefit the U.S. real estate chain. A reduction in mortgage rates by 150-200 basis points historically leads to significant market movements, with beneficiary stocks typically seeing early valuation increases. The introduction of the "Big and Beautiful" plan has significantly widened the U.S. fiscal gap, creating potential for interest rate cuts. Given the current high-interest environment, the U.S. real estate market is at a critical low point, and rate cuts are expected to invigorate market activity, suggesting investment opportunities in home appliance and power tool export companies during this cycle [1]. Group 1 - The transmission of interest rates to real estate is precise, indicating a systematic reversal for the U.S. real estate chain. The strong cyclicality of the U.S. home appliance and tool industries is closely tied to changes in the real estate cycle, with revenue fluctuations of leading companies in these sectors closely mirroring trends in U.S. home sales. The U.S. real estate market is currently at a historical low, and demand for tools is expected to rise as the real estate cycle enters a recovery phase [2]. - The potential for stock price increases in the post-cycle sector is significant. Historical analysis of major interest rate cut cycles since the 21st century shows that a 150-200 basis point reduction in mortgage rates can lead to a doubling of stock prices for post-cycle companies. The predictability of interest rate policies has improved since the introduction of the dot plot by the FOMC in 2012, shortening the lag time for stock prices to respond to Fed rate cuts [3]. - The current high level of the federal funds rate is expected to decline. The "Big and Beautiful" plan will increase debt levels, further raising interest pressure. To mitigate risks from high interest payments and address rising unemployment, significant rate cuts are seen as a necessary policy choice for the White House. The weak job market is shifting the Fed's focus from controlling inflation to preventing recession, with expectations for rate cuts increasing significantly for September [4]. Group 2 - The U.S. real estate market is currently at its lowest transaction levels in nearly 20 years, with strong demand potential. However, the "rate lock" effect has suppressed activity for 2-3 years. The initiation of rate cuts, combined with home purchases by millennials, is expected to effectively activate the U.S. real estate market. Concerns about the effectiveness of moderate rate cuts in a high-interest environment are addressed by referencing recovery experiences from the 1980s, where moderate cuts in a high-rate environment also significantly boosted the real estate chain [5]. - With the gradual clarification of rate cut expectations, U.S. mortgage rates are likely to decrease, leading to a gradual recovery in the U.S. real estate market in the first half of 2026. This recovery is expected to further enhance the economic outlook for the home appliance and tool industries. Regarding tariffs, the pressure on Southeast Asian production capacities is not expected to exceed that of domestic capacities from 2024, making the overall impact manageable [6].