查处编造传播房地产市场谣言，清理整治虚假信息，打击营造"真实在售"假象等行为，依法查处散布同 质化虚假谣言信息。 处置恶意唱衰房地产市场信息，严禁炒作个别房源成交价等，整治直播中歪曲解读市场等行为，严厉处 置标题党信息。 重庆市住房城乡建委与市委网信办联合印发通知，决定在全市范围内开展为期10个月的房地产领域网络 环境专项整治行动，旨在加强房地产领域网络信息内容管理，规范网上信息传播秩序，从严整治房地产 领域自媒体违规营利行为。 此次专项整治行动将聚焦大型社交、短视频、网络直播等平台上的涉房地产营销账号，重点加强对房地 产企业、房屋中介机构及其从业人员开设的自媒体账号监管。 主要整治六方面内容： 整治虚假低价房源炒作引流，严禁发布虚假房源信息、以法拍房起拍价冒充成交价等，从严处置违规引 流信息。 处置歪曲解读房地产政策行为，严禁篡改、杜撰政策原文等，坚决处置不实信息。 查处炮制涉企侵权信息违规营利，从严打击要挟房企索取财物等行为，严禁联合账号炒作施压。 规范市场数据及研究报告发布，严禁捏造、传播虚假数据和不实信息。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 ...

Global Economic Landscape - The global market is undergoing significant changes, influenced by geopolitical dynamics, technological revolutions, and persistent inflation and debt issues, with the U.S. and China being the core variables affecting the global economy [2][4] - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain steady growth due to the AI investment boom and a unique debt resolution strategy, with projected nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% [5][6] - In contrast, China's economy is under pressure from a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, but new emerging sectors are quietly rising, indicating a unique economic landscape [2][11] U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is benefiting from AI investments and a distinctive approach to managing high government debt, which may lead to a nominal growth rate of 4%-5% in the coming years [5][6] - However, this debt resolution method may have adverse effects, such as a narrowing of real yields on U.S. Treasuries and potential depreciation of the dollar against other currencies [6][7] - The social divide exacerbated by the AI boom poses risks, with the top 1% capturing most of the wealth, leading to increased societal tensions [7][8] Chinese Economic Dynamics - China's economy faces challenges, including a low-price cycle and ongoing real estate market adjustments, but there are positive signs in new technology sectors that could attract investment [11][12] - The real estate market's downward trend is expected to continue, with historical data suggesting that significant price corrections are necessary for stabilization [13][14] - The shift from a real estate-driven economy to one focused on new emerging industries is underway, with AI and biotechnology showing promise [14][15] Asset Allocation Strategies - The discussion emphasizes the importance of asset allocation in the current global landscape, with a focus on U.S. equities and commodities [17][18] - U.S. stocks are expected to experience a "rise then fall" pattern, driven by liquidity conditions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [18][19] - Commodities, particularly industrial metals, are seen as favorable investments due to their strong demand in the AI era [19][20] AI and Market Valuation - The AI sector is viewed as having a bubble in the short term, but its long-term value is recognized as significant, with substantial investments expected to drive productivity improvements [23][24] - The current market conditions suggest that while there may be short-term overvaluation, the underlying technological advancements will yield long-term benefits [25][26] Chinese Market and A-Shares - The Chinese market is entering a phase of stabilization and growth, with expectations for moderate corporate earnings growth [31][32] - The "9·24" policy shift has positively impacted market confidence, leading to a structural revaluation of growth stocks [33][34] - The focus is shifting towards performance-driven investment strategies, with an emphasis on sectors that can deliver real earnings growth [34][35] Precious Metals Investment - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown strong performance, but current prices reflect a significant amount of positive sentiment and may not sustain further increases in the short term [36][37] - The investment strategy should consider the potential for currency depreciation and the long-term value of gold as a hedge against fiat currency risks [38][39]

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial status of individuals in China, particularly focusing on the significance of having 500,000 yuan in savings, which is considered a relatively high amount compared to the national average [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Context - By the end of 2024, China's household savings are projected to exceed 150 trillion yuan, resulting in an average savings of just over 100,000 yuan per person [1]. - Approximately 70% of families have savings of less than 200,000 yuan, indicating that having 300,000 yuan in savings places a family above 80% of households [1]. Group 2: Decision-Making Factors - Individuals should categorize their needs as either self-use, improvement, or pure investment before deciding on purchasing property [6][8]. - The location of the property (first-tier vs. third-tier cities) significantly impacts the potential for property value appreciation and risk [10][12]. - Job stability and income predictability are crucial factors in determining whether to invest in property or keep savings liquid [14][16]. - Anticipating large future expenses (e.g., marriage, education, healthcare) is essential for deciding on asset allocation [16]. Group 3: Recommendations for Home Buying - Buying property is advisable for individuals in first-tier or strong second-tier cities who have stable jobs and are looking for self-use homes [18]. - Properties that are conveniently located near essential services (schools, hospitals) are more likely to retain value even in a declining market [20]. - Buyers should be prepared for the long-term commitment of having their money tied up in real estate [22]. Group 4: Recommendations for Savings and Investments - Individuals uncertain about their future location or facing weak real estate markets should consider saving rather than buying property [24][26]. - Those sensitive to debt should avoid taking on large mortgages that could negatively impact their quality of life [28][29]. - A balanced approach to savings includes maintaining an emergency fund, making a reasonable down payment for a home if needed, and considering low-risk investments for the remaining funds [35][39]. Group 5: Cautions Against Certain Actions - Investing all savings into a single property without retaining liquidity is highly risky [41]. - Solely relying on fixed-term deposits in a declining interest rate environment may not keep pace with inflation [43]. - Purchasing investment properties in weaker markets can lead to significant financial losses due to declining property values and low demand [45].

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and the Municipal Cyberspace Administration have launched a 10-month special campaign to regulate the online environment in the real estate sector, focusing on marketing accounts on major social media, short video, and live streaming platforms [1] Group 1: Focus Areas of the Campaign - The campaign will target six main areas, including the rectification of false low-priced housing promotions and the prohibition of publishing false housing information, such as misrepresenting auction starting prices as transaction prices [1] - There will be strict measures against distorting and misinterpreting real estate policies, including the prohibition of altering or fabricating policy texts [1] - The campaign aims to address the fabrication and dissemination of rumors about the real estate market, including the cleanup of false information and the crackdown on creating a false impression of "real listings" [1] Group 2: Regulatory Measures - The campaign will also tackle malicious attempts to undermine the real estate market, prohibiting the sensationalization of individual property transaction prices and the distortion of market conditions during live broadcasts [1] - There will be strict actions against the fabrication of information that infringes on enterprises, including prohibiting extortion from real estate companies and the collusion of accounts to exert pressure [1] - The regulation of market data and research report releases will be enforced, with a ban on fabricating and disseminating false data and misleading information [1]

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased this week, while cement clinker capacity utilization rate improved[1] - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt decreased, while the operating rates for automotive semi-steel and full-steel tires fell[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 33.7% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, a decline of 9.6 percentage points from the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.64% week-on-week as of December 22, 2025[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles in December 2025 were 1.928 million units, down 17% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales dropped by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, 2025, a decrease of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of December 28, 2025, but this was a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The export container shipping price index rose by 2.0% week-on-week, marking the third consecutive week of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.3% this week, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index rose by 0.1%[1] - The wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased by 1% week-on-week, with some prices for fruits and pork rising while vegetable and egg prices fell[1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable market outlook for the real estate industry in 2026, with expectations of continued policy support [1][13]. Core Insights - Last week, real estate transactions in major cities showed mixed results, with policies remaining stable, which is expected to support a steady market in 2026 [1][13]. - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 3.15 million square meters in the first week of 2026, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous week but a 20.6% decrease year-on-year [14]. - First-tier cities saw a significant increase in sales, with 710,000 square meters sold, up 31.0% week-on-week but down 24% year-on-year [14]. - Second-tier cities sold 1.98 million square meters, up 2.83% from the previous week, down 15% year-on-year [14]. - Third-tier cities experienced a decline in sales, with 470,000 square meters sold, down 12.3% week-on-week and down 34.5% year-on-year [14]. - Cumulative sales in 30 cities as of January 1, 2026, were 90,000 square meters, down 61.8% from December 2025 [14]. - Second-hand home sales in 24 cities fell to 2.04 million square meters, down 7.50% from the previous week and down 14.5% year-on-year [15]. - The land transaction growth in 100 cities continued to decline, with land supply at 10.28 million square meters and transactions at 33.30 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 0.31 [16]. - The cumulative land supply in 100 cities was down 27% year-on-year, with cumulative transaction growth down 24.8% year-on-year [16]. - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities rose to 24.54 months, indicating a longer time required to clear existing inventory [17].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.08% at 26,316.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.18% to 5,726.11 points. The National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.19% to 9,151.59 points, and the Red Chip Index rose by 0.38% to 4,099.43 points [1] Technology Sector - Alibaba-W increased by 2.28%, Tencent Holdings rose by 0.08%, while JD Group-SW fell by 1.13%, Xiaomi Group-W dropped by 2.53%, NetEase-S decreased by 2.71%, Meituan-W fell by 0.19%, Kuaishou-W surged by 9.66%, and Bilibili-W rose by 5.56% [1] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, with Fuhong Hanlin rising by 7%. The National Medical Products Administration announced that by 2025, 76 innovative drugs will be approved for market, significantly exceeding the 48 approved in 2024, marking a historical high. Additionally, the total amount of authorized transactions for innovative drugs will exceed $130 billion, with over 150 transactions, also a historical high [1] Real Estate Sector - Domestic real estate stocks strengthened, with Shimao Group rising over 9%. An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the critical role of real estate in national economic development, advocating for proactive measures to stabilize market expectations and reduce adjustment times. It highlighted the need for consistent policy strength that aligns with market expectations, avoiding piecemeal approaches that could lead to market-policy conflicts [1] Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface concept surged, with Nanjing Panda Electronics rising over 44%. Elon Musk announced that his company Neuralink plans to begin large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, with a streamlined and automated surgical process. A key breakthrough involves electrodes passing through the dura mater without removal, potentially reducing the invasiveness of traditional devices and optimizing efficiency and costs through automation [2] Oil Sector - Oil stocks weakened, with PetroChina falling over 4%. The U.S. launched military actions against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro. Trump stated that U.S. oil companies would invest billions to repair Venezuela's damaged oil infrastructure, aiding in capacity recovery and revenue generation, while maintaining a complete oil embargo against Venezuela [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced fluctuations and slight declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.08% to 26,316.55 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.18%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down by 0.19% [1][9]. Technology Sector - In the tech sector, Kuaishou surged over 9%, and Bilibili rose more than 5%, while Xiaomi and NetEase fell over 2% [1][9]. Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical stocks led the gains, with Huadong Medicine rising by 7%. The National Medical Products Administration announced that 76 innovative drugs are expected to be approved in China by 2025, significantly surpassing the 48 approved in 2024, marking a historical high [2][11]. Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks strengthened, with Shimao Group increasing by over 9%. An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the critical role of real estate in the national economy and the need for proactive measures to stabilize market expectations [5][13]. Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface concept saw significant gains, with Nanjing Panda Electronics rising over 44%. Elon Musk's Neuralink announced plans for large-scale production of brain interface devices starting in 2026, aiming to streamline surgical processes and reduce invasiveness [6][14]. Oil Sector - Oil stocks weakened, with PetroChina declining over 4%. The U.S. has initiated military actions against Venezuela, with plans for major oil companies to invest billions in repairing the country's oil infrastructure while maintaining an effective oil embargo [7][15].

刚过去的2025年，房地产市场的分化行情让不少购房者看得眼花缭乱：二手房成了市场主力，核心城市 和远郊区县走势差得越来越远，一边是房价"跌穿底部"的焦虑，一边又有市场筑底的信号在显现。 如今站在2026年的起点，大家最关心的问题来了：楼市到底能不能迎来转机？是继续在底部徘徊，还是 会慢慢升温？刚需现在出手合适吗？改善家庭有没有资产升级的机会？ 2026年是"十五五"的开局之年，也是房地产从深度调整走向平稳发展的关键一年。中央经济工作会议定 调"因城施策、控增量、去库存、优供给"，这意味着市场将不再追求大规模的增量扩张，而是转向存量 盘活与品质提升。 告别普涨普跌：过去那种"买到就是赚到"的时代已经过去。2026年，楼市将呈现明显的分化特征。 核心城市、核心地段、高品质的"好房子"将走出独立行情，而远郊、老旧、缺乏竞争力的房产则可能继 续面临去化难、流通难的困境。 二手房成主力：随着存量时代的到来，二手房交易将持续活跃，成为市场成交的主力军。这也意味 着，新房市场将面临更激烈的竞争，倒逼开发商提升产品力。 对于2026年房地产市场的走势，多位专家也给出了乐观的预测。他们认为，在政策持续发力、市场信心 逐步恢复的 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 受假期天数增加影响，元旦出行、零售数据或实现较高增长，出入境、免税退税景气度更高。往后看，今年将经历最长"元旦+春节"假期（共12天，较去年增 加3天），或需关注其对宏观数据环比读数的影响。 一、假期天数增加，推动出行数据高增 今年元旦假期共3天，去年仅为1天，且部分游客选择"请3休8"的超长拼假模式，进一步放大了差异。据交通运输部数据，假期3天，全社会跨区域人员流动量 同比增长19.62%。 分出行方式看 ：1）游客或更多为中短途出行。民航增速相对较低为10%。2）中长途出行中，出入境景气度更高。国家移民局数据显示，出入境人数增长近 3成。 二、商品零售高增，但地区冷暖不均 从地区数据看，假期商品零售高增，但地区间差异明显。北京、河北、湖北武汉、湖南（双位数增长）>江苏南京苏州、山东青岛（8%-10%）>上海、四川 （分别为2.5%、0.9%）。（注：上海、河北、四川为前两日数据、其他为假期三天） 免税退税商品实现更高增长。据海口海关统计，假期三天，海南离岛免税购物金额同比+128 ...