2025 年 08 月 25 日 宏观深度研究 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 美债的历史演进与当下困局 美国系列深度研究之三 《7 月政治局会议解读：长期无虞 短期无忧*夏 磊》——2025-07-31 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 研究所： 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 近年来，美国联邦政府债务规模持续攀升。奥巴马任期 8 年，债务从 10.6 万亿增至 19.9 万亿美元；特朗普第一任期，债务规模扩大至 27.8 万亿美 元，4 年增长 7.8 万亿美元；拜登任期结束时，债务总额已达 36.2 万亿 美元，4 年增长 8.5 万亿美元。债务增长速度不断加快，第一个 12 万亿 美元用时超 200 年，第二个 12 万亿美元约 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the current state and future outlook of government bonds, particularly the 10-year and 30-year bonds, as well as the impact of value-added tax (VAT) on these bonds [1][5][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Adjustment** - There are signs of over-adjustment in the short-term bond market, with indicators showing a demand for stabilization. The rapid adjustment, floating losses for funds, and strong short-seller forces are key manifestations of this over-adjustment [1][4]. 2. **Attractiveness of Long-term Bonds** - Long-term government bonds subject to VAT are attractive in the current market environment, with strong demand from institutional investors. These bonds offer advantages in yield and tax treatment compared to other risk-free assets of similar duration [1][5]. 3. **Influencing Factors on Bond Market** - The recent bond market is influenced by the equity market's rise, economic fundamentals, and monetary policy. If the equity market's rise is driven solely by risk appetite, the bond market's interest rates will gradually become less responsive after adjustments [1][6]. 4. **Interest Rate Predictions** - Most interest rate prediction models are pessimistic about the bond market's future, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may break 1.8%, with a high point projected at 1.85% [1][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Short-term investment strategies should focus on a rebound approach, avoiding chasing yields during interest rate declines. A hold strategy is recommended for bond portfolios, with caution against increasing duration [1][9][10]. 6. **Bond Curve Dynamics** - The current curve shape is slightly bear steep, with long-term rates relatively weaker than short-term rates. In a bear steep environment, a bullet strategy is suggested, while a barbell strategy is recommended for dynamic investment to quickly adjust duration [1][11]. 7. **Specific Bond Recommendations** - The newly issued 10-year and 30-year bonds are highlighted as having the potential to become mainstay bonds. The 10-year bond (250,215) is noted for its value, while the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) is expected to have a significant issuance scale [2][12][15]. 8. **Impact of VAT on Bond Trading** - The introduction of VAT on government bonds is not expected to significantly alter market behavior. Investors will still consider after-tax returns when trading bonds, but the VAT will not deter trading activity [14]. 9. **Long-term vs. Short-term Bond Strategies** - Investors are advised to consider the differences in volatility and yield spreads when choosing between 10-year and 30-year bonds. The 30-year bonds may present greater opportunities in a rebound market, while the 10-year bonds are more suited for defensive strategies [20][21]. Other Important Considerations - The bond market's future trajectory will be influenced by government debt issuance and central bank policies, particularly in the fourth quarter, which may lead to fluctuations in liquidity [8][9]. - The potential for the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) to become a mainstay bond is emphasized, with its issuance scale expected to be significant compared to existing bonds [15][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the bond market, along with strategic recommendations for investors.

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 本轮赎回压力或止于基金端 固定收益市场周观察 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投：信用债市场周观察 2025-08-25 交易热度新高，估值还未见顶：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-19 24Q4 债市的"反向镜像"：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-08-18 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted a significant liquidity injection, leading to a recovery in the bond market, with the yield on the 30-year special government bond falling by 4 basis points to 1.9975%, dipping below 2% for the first time in several days [1] - The central bank executed a 288.4 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 21.9 billion yuan for the day, alongside a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, resulting in a total net injection of 621.9 billion yuan [1] - The stock market remains strong, with A-shares trading volume surpassing 3 trillion yuan for the second time in history, indicating a notable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1] Group 2 - Ten science and technology innovation bond ETFs will be included in the pledge library starting August 27, with a total scale reaching 120.384 billion yuan, allowing for general pledge-style repurchase business [2] - The joint notice from three departments encourages the expansion of direct financing channels for forestry enterprises, promoting bond issuance for eligible companies while ensuring no new hidden local government debt is created [3][4] Group 3 - Shanxi Province has issued guidelines to optimize the management of special bonds, stating that financing platforms with unresolved hidden debts cannot serve as project units [5][6] - Multiple provinces have reported significant progress in resolving hidden debts through bond replacement and negotiations, with some regions achieving a reduction in hidden debt to below 100 billion yuan [6] Group 4 - The Henan Agricultural Investment Group plans to issue 300 million yuan in medium-term notes, with the entire proceeds aimed at repaying existing debts [7] - The Xinxiang Shentou Operation Management Company has received approval for a 300 million yuan asset-backed securities project from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] Group 5 - Zhengzhou Economic Development Investment plans to conduct a cash tender offer for "21 Zhengzhou Economic Development MTN001," with a total face value of 230 million yuan [10] - The Sichuan provincial government has initiated the establishment of several new state-owned enterprises to address structural issues and enhance innovation capabilities [14] Group 6 - The bond market sentiment is currently influenced by various factors, with analysts suggesting that bonds can still provide returns even during a slow bull market in stocks [17] - Short-term bond market conditions remain challenging, but interest rates are expected to stabilize, with recommendations for specific bond types to mitigate risks [17]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 关于南向通扩容的几个关注点 ——境外债系列报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 2025 年 7 月 8 日，中国人民银行金融市场司副司长江会芬在"债券通周年论坛 2025" 上表示，将完善债券通"南向通"运行机制，支持更多境内投资者走出去投资离岸 债券市场，近期将扩大境内投资者范围至券商、基金、保险、理财等 4 类非银机构。 联系人 关注南向通托管模式的选择。境内投资者可以自主选择通过境内债券登记结算机构 （对应多级直连托管模式）或境内托管清算银行（对应全球托管模式）托管其债券 资产。多级直连托管模式下，可投资债券范围仅包括在 CMU 登记托管的债券，全球 托管模式下的可投标的券范围更广。目前 CMU 托管的人民币计价债券余额占中资境 外债总体存量余额的 75%，但 CMU 登记 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市情绪年内第二次转负 ——债市情绪面周报（8 月第 3 周） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：债市调整空间有限，关注个券利差挖掘机会 近期债市在权益偏强的情况下有所承压，但我们认为中长期仍将回归基 本面定价，上周五杰克逊霍尔年会释放偏鸽信号，我们预计税期过后资金面不 存在大幅收紧的基础，供给方面央行进行宽货币配合，目前机构行为信号方向 依然给出做多，基金的赎回/卖债力度较为可控，大行持续买债提供短端确定 性，从近期借贷情况来看，我们在上周周报中提示 250210-250215 利差可能走 扩。 ⚫ 卖方观点：债市情绪年内第二次转负，偏空观点机构数量占比近三成 截至本周一，近 3 成固收卖方看空债市，一半持中性态度，情绪较上周下 行，7 家偏多、19 家中性、8 家偏空，债市情绪年内第二次转负，多数机构对 债市维持谨慎/震荡市判断，其中： ⚫ 买方观点：买方超八成看中性 报告日期： 2025-08-25 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：131275320 ...

每经AI快讯，8月25日，德国债券下跌，10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至2.77%。 ...

8月25日，深交所发布公告，关于2025年宁波市政府专项债券（二十四期）上市交易的通知。 来源：金融界 2025年宁波市政府专项债券（二十四期）已发行结束，根据财政部有关规定，本期债券于2025年8月27 日起在深交所上市交易。本期债券为10年期固定利率附息债，证券编码"565015"，证券简称"宁波 2532"，发行总额125亿元，票面利率1.92%。 ...

股债齐涨：流动性宽松下的市场共振现象 今日盘中出现的股债齐涨现象，在金融市场中并不常见。通常情况下，股票和债券作为两类核心资产，往往呈现"跷跷板"效应——经济向好时股市上涨、 债市承压，经济疲软时债市走强、股市回调。这种罕见的同步上涨，实则是市场资金面与政策预期共同作用的结果，背后反映的是当前特殊宏观环境下的 流动性宽松信号。 值得注意的是，股债齐涨往往是特定阶段的市场现象，背后是资金对政策环境的集体解读。当美联储释放降息信号，全球资本流动格局重塑，新兴市场资 产迎来阶段性重估机遇。在这种背景下，股票和债券不再是简单的替代关系，而成为资金配置的不同选择——就像人在呼吸顺畅时，心率、情绪等各项指 标都会趋向平稳，当市场流动性"呼吸顺畅"时，各类资产也会呈现健康表现。 总体而言，今日股债齐涨是市场对全球流动性宽松预期的直接反应，是外部政策信号与内部资金配置需求共同作用的结果。这种现象告诉我们，在宏观政 策转向的关键节点，流动性往往成为驱动资产价格的核心因素，就像呼吸顺畅度决定着身心状态的好坏，市场资金的"呼吸顺畅"程度也决定着各类资产的 表现。对于投资者而言，理解这种流动性驱动的市场特征，比纠结于个别指标更重要。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market and stock market are gradually decoupling, with the bond market relying on bank proprietary trading and insurance capital this year [1] - In the first seven months, the net issuance scale of the bond market reached 14.3 trillion, with bank proprietary bond investments increasing by 9.6 trillion and insurance capital by 2 trillion [1] - Unlike the previous two years, the scale of bond funds has not increased, and the bond holdings of brokerage proprietary trading and bond funds may not have grown [1] Group 2 - The change in insurance capital's stock holdings is partly due to stock price fluctuations and partly due to new investments [1] - Due to the maturity of non-standard assets and a significant drop in deposit interest rates, the proportion of insurance capital in bond investments has notably increased [1] - The growth trend of bank deposits aligns with the growth of social financing, indicating that asset allocation generates liabilities [1] Group 3 - The central bank's easing measures have made adjusted government bonds have certain allocation value, and banks may further increase bond allocations due to weak credit demand [1] - Over the past month, the combined reduction in the holdings of 7Y and above interest rate bonds by brokerage proprietary trading and bond funds exceeded 500 billion, with over 200 billion in long-term interest rate bonds [1] - As non-bank trading positions shift long-term interest rate bond holdings to insurance capital and other allocation positions, coupled with a significant reduction in supply in Q4, the bond market is expected to decouple from the stock market [1] Group 4 - The presence of speculation makes both stocks and bonds susceptible to positive and negative feedback [1] - A stock bull market driven by funds does not necessarily lead to a bond bear market, and bond market pricing will eventually return to fundamental financial conditions [1] - In a low-interest-rate environment, pure bond investment is challenging, and a trend in the bond market is not expected in 2025, necessitating wave-based operations [1] Group 5 - The company’s bond ETF (511030) has shown stable and controllable pullbacks, ranking first among comparable peers [2]