美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 2月5日，日本财政部周四进行的30年期国债拍卖需求强劲，缓解了市场对大选前夕长期债务压力的担 忧。此次拍卖的投标倍数达到3.64，显著高于上一次拍卖的3.14，也超过了过去12个月3.35的平均水 平。拍卖结果公布后，日本国债期货应声上涨。此前周二进行的10年期国债拍卖需求平平，反映出市场 担心大选后财政支出将大幅增加。 民调显示，高市早苗的公众支持率依然稳固，其领导的执政党有望在周日的投票中获得绝对多数席位。 此外，日元贬值也令投资者感到不安。随着高市早苗指出弱势日元对出口的益处，对冲基金正重启对日 元的做空押注。同时，市场正密切关注选举结果对日本央行加息路径的影响。1 月会议纪要显示，鉴于 日元贬值对通胀的影响，央行官员对"适时加息"的紧迫性正日益达成共识。 ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 如何择时股债对冲效率 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 寻找跨资产定价的共振系数 本报告导读： 对冲效率看联动强度，联动强度看风险溢价。股息率是适合跟踪的风险溢价信号， 关键看股息率的边际变动。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 证 券 研 究 ...

2026年，日本央行重启加息，是否会给全球宽松环境带来变数？科技主题是否依然能引领市场？在复杂 多变的环境下，如何进行多元资产配置，才能应对全球不确定性带来的挑战？近期，汇丰晋信基金与汇 丰投资管理携手举办了2026年全球投资展望分享会，邀请投资专家拨开市场迷雾，前瞻2026年环球市场 表现，捕捉多元资产配置机遇。 全球宏观：正处于人工智能超级周期的开端 在汇丰投资管理固定收益环球首席投资官、亚洲区首席投资官Michael Cross看来，市场正处于人工智能 超级周期的开端，也处于大宗商品超级周期的早期阶段。谈及美国市场，他表示："我们预计美元不会 出现大幅贬值。美国正经历一场巨大的投资热潮，流入美国的资金仍然有望保持强劲。" Michael Cross表示："关于人工智能，目前存在着广泛的观点，美国的劳动生产率目前为2%。一些学术 估算认为人工智能可以使生产率增长0.2%。还有一些估算认为，人工智能可以将生产率提高4.5%，这 是前所未有的。虽然我们毫不怀疑人工智能将会带来益处，但无法准确衡量其益处究竟有多大。这意味 着股票价格将会出现上涨趋势，但随着人们对人工智能益处的看法逐渐明朗，预计市场会出现一些波 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：资本深潜号 作者 | 徐行 编辑 | 袁畅 最近一周黄金、白银等贵金属价格进入历史级波动，贵金属行情是否结束？此时是"倒车接人"还是顶部 挣扎？该如何分析大类资产的表现逻辑？ 2月3日，中金公司首席海外策略分析师刘刚在一个场合以"当黄金超过5500"为主题，分享了对最近黄金 等贵金属急涨、暴跌的剧烈震荡的看法。 这一关键时候的及时分析，吸引了大量关注。 基于"可资借鉴"的角度，我们予以实录（演讲以第一人称，略有删改）。 金句： 1、黄金价格在突破5500以后出现了明显回调，从结果上看这只是偶然，但这种结果本身有重要意义。 2、自上个世纪80年代以来，黄金价格从未出现过一个月内上涨25%，或一天跌幅超过10个百分点的情 形，最近的市场表现是前所未见的。 3、造成金价暴涨的原因之一，是黄金早已超越传统基本面定价。传统模型以实际利率作为持有黄金的 机会成本和时间成本，以通胀作为黄金抵御风险的价值来源，若按此类模型定价，黄金根本不应涨到这 么高。 4、判断是否出现流动性危机有一个非常简单的指标：看美元指数，只要出现全球性流动性危机，美元 ...

美国国债周三收盘涨跌互现，7年期基本持平，收益率曲线陡化，走势受季度再融资公告影响，公告的 拍卖规模符合预期，美国财政部的发债策略未出现重大调整。鉴于未释放未来明显缩短加权平均期限的 信号，美元互换利差在公告前后出现波动。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，短端收益率下行不超过1个基点，而长端则上行约2个基点，2s10s和5s30s利差 日内均趋陡约2个基点。 美国10年期国债收益率收于4.275%，基本持平；同期限德国国债跑赢美债4个基点，而英国国债跑输美 债2个基点，在欧洲债券中表现落后。 再融资公告发布后，美国国债开始扭曲趋陡；而美元互换利差随后收窄，反映出在未见加权平均期限缩 短信号的情况下，部分此前押注利差走阔的头寸被解除。 近期金融企业大量发债相关的互换对冲资金流也是本周利差收窄的考量因素之一。 服务业PMI和ISM服务业整体指数表现稳健，美国国债对其反应有限，市场维持对年底前累计降息约50 个基点的预期。 责任编辑：李桐 美国国债周三收盘涨跌互现，7年期基本持平，收益率曲线陡化，走势受季度再融资公告影响，公告的 拍卖规模符合预期，美国财政部的发债策略未出现重大调整。鉴于未释放未来明显缩短加权平均期限的 信号 ...

Core Viewpoint - European government bonds experienced a slight increase as the decline in Eurozone inflation led the market to anticipate a potentially dovish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB) during its policy announcement [1][4]. Market Summary - The 2-year German government bond yield fell by 3 basis points to 2.10%, down from a peak of 2.15% last week, which was the highest since late December [2][5]. - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain the borrowing cost at 2% for the fifth consecutive meeting, closely monitoring whether the strengthening Euro and slowing inflation will spark discussions about rate cuts this year [2][5]. - The UK long-term bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 5.32%, the highest since November, while short-term yields remained stable [2][5]. - The 10-year German government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 2.86%, and German government bond futures rose by 25 points to 127.94 [3][7]. - The 10-year Italian government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.48%, with the spread between Italian and German bonds remaining stable at 61 basis points [3][7]. - The 10-year French government bond yield also decreased by 2 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.54% [3][7].

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (KeChuang bonds) has been continuously active. Although the overall demand for KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds. The performance of KeChuang bonds is expected to be mainly volatile before the holiday. For accounts with unstable liability ends, it is recommended to give priority to high - quality KeChuang bonds within 3 years as investment targets [2][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2.0% of KeChuang Bonds: How to View 3.1.1 Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The primary market has continued the strong supply trend since the beginning of the year. The new supply scale in the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, reached 58.96 billion yuan, with the issuance of over - 5 - year varieties in the inter - bank market increasing significantly. The overall demand for new KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, but the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds, indicating limited willingness of investors to pay a premium for the "science and technology innovation label" [2][11] 3.1.2 Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - Rating distribution: The ratings of outstanding KeChuang bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 73.7%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 22.0%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities [3][19] - Industry distribution: The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries. Bonds in the building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive industries account for 38.9%. There is an excess spread of over 13bp in the textile and apparel, communication, and non - bank financial industries compared to all credit bonds in the same industries [3][19] - Liquidity: In the past two weeks, the weekly trading volume of KeChuang bonds has returned to over a thousand transactions, and the turnover rate in the latest week has risen to 2.17%, higher than that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [3][26] - Yield: Due to the marginal slowdown of the net outflow pressure of KeChuang bond ETF funds and the warming of the bond market sentiment, the market of KeChuang bonds has been supported. This week, high - grade medium - and short - term KeChuang bonds have performed well. The average yields of 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year exchange - listed AAA KeChuang bonds have decreased by 6.3bp and 7.5bp respectively [3][31] - Internal price comparison of KeChuang bond varieties: Recently, the spread between the constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds of the KeChuang bond index has remained above 20bp, and the spread between inter - bank varieties and constituent bonds has widened to 10.1bp. For the 1 - 3 - year segment, there is still 18bp of compression space between inter - bank varieties and index constituent bonds [3][35]

避险资产不避险，债市风景独好？ 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 分析师：严伶怡 近期债市市场走势偏修复，但开年以来各类品种表现背离，盘下来基本只有超长债表 现较差。从开年以来 10 年以内债券、二永的表现来看，债市可以说并非熊市，属于 迟到的配置行情。1 月 30 年国债虽然较去年底上行 2BP，最高上行 7BP，但 10 年及 以内国债、中短信用债表现稳定，基本没有下跌；二永表现更为优异，主要源于分红 险和固收+的配置需求，3 年、5 年 AAA-二级资本债，3 年、5 年 AA+银行永续债较 年底分别下行 5.8BP、9.0BP、 9.8BP、9.6BP。 从 30 年国债的角度上，在经历了去年 12 月和今年开年大幅调整后，很多投资人"受 伤"后参与力度减弱，因此没怎么跟随 10 年内修复，导致期限利差被动走阔。 多资产市场超高波动，但跟以往相比，对债券市场的影响比较小。无论是商品市场的 "滞涨"交易，还是权益市场科技方向的"风险偏好"交易，对债市并未造成显著下 跌的影响 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong fluctuation today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to 4102.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%. However, the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.40% and 0.98%, respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 250.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Overall, the market sentiment was neutral to weak, with over 3200 stocks rising [1]. Sector Performance - The coal, gold, and dividend sectors led the gains today, while high-volatility sectors such as artificial intelligence, media, and telecommunications experienced pullbacks. Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap stocks, and growth stocks lagged behind value stocks, indicating a preference for more stable investments [1]. Gold and Silver Market - The Gold ETF from Guotai surged by 4.24%. After two consecutive days of significant declines, gold and silver prices rebounded strongly, with spot gold rising above the 5000 USD mark and spot silver exceeding 90 USD. The rebound in precious metals prices followed a concentrated release of selling pressure, and the implied volatility of gold showed signs of turning upward again after a previous spike and subsequent correction [1]. Coal Sector Insights - The Coal ETF (515220) saw a significant increase of 9.07%, while the Guotai Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) rose by 4.29%. Indonesian officials announced that local miners have suspended spot coal exports to support prices, as current profit margins for miners are low. This suspension is aimed at avoiding default risks due to quota uncertainties, although long-term contracts remain unaffected. The coal sector is expected to benefit from short-term supply-demand catalysts and long-term valuation support due to weakening dollar credit [2]. Transportation Sector Activity - The airport and shipping sectors were active today, driven by the ongoing Spring Festival travel season. With the holiday period being longer this year, a second wave of travel is anticipated. The transportation ETF (561320) increased by 3.10%, supported by a slowing supply growth, high passenger load factors, and expectations of reduced competition, which may lead to improved profitability in the sector [2]. Bond Market Trends - Following an initial over-allocation by banks at the beginning of the year, the bond market has experienced a slow upward trend, although recent movements have shown hesitation. The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has been primarily fluctuating, with a slight increase of 0.05% over the past five days. Short-term interest rates may still have room to decline, but a narrow range of fluctuations is expected in the medium to long term. A strategic allocation approach is recommended over short-term trading, with a focus on medium-duration government bond ETFs [2].