01 重要事件回顾 1、当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普宣布美军在委内瑞拉发动突袭行动，抓走委内瑞 拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子，并称两人将赴纽约面临刑事指控；他同时宣称美国 将"暂时运行"委内瑞拉。 2025年12月制造业PMI回升至50.1%，重返扩张区间，各分项普遍改善，加剧了市场对经 济回暖的预期。同时，2025年12月发布的《关于2026年实施大规 ... 3、财政部办2025年12月30日发布通知，公布了2026年第一季度国债发行有关安排。目 前财政部已经公告的2026年一季度新增地方专项债和再融资专项债的合计计划规模约 1.54万亿元。从发行节奏来看，财政适度靠前发力，体现了积极的财政政策取向。 4、中国证监会对《开放式证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》进行了修订，并更名为《公 开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，自2026年1月1日起正式施行。《规定》合理 调降了公募基金认申购费、销售服务费率水平，切实降低投资者成本。此外机构投资者 持有债券型基金（债基）的赎回费豁免期限，在正式生效的新规中，已从征求意见稿的6 个月缩短至30天（1个月），降低了机构投资者原来预期的持有和调仓的成本压力。 5、 ...

Group 1 - The core contradiction in the convertible bond market has shifted from long-term "valuation cost-effectiveness" to short-term "capital and sentiment game," with liquidity improvement being the main theme of the current market [1][2] - The recent spring rally has led to a strong performance in the convertible bond market, with the convertible bond small-cap index rising by 5.47%, outperforming the large-cap index which increased by 2.01% [1][10] - The healthcare (+6.03%), information technology (+5.61%), and energy (+4.58%) sectors have shown strong performance, while financials (+1.65%) and consumer staples (+2.60%) have lagged [1][10] Group 2 - The liquidity style has performed best in the past week, with strong convertible bonds yielding an average return of +4.57%, significantly higher than other styles [2][11] - The current market environment favors high liquidity securities, which attract new capital and create a positive feedback loop of liquidity premium leading to capital inflow [2][10] - Investors are advised to shift from a defensive strategy focused on "double low" value to a more aggressive trading mindset, capitalizing on market sentiment and capital flow [3][16] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of momentum and volatility factors in capturing trending market conditions, suggesting that investors should select securities with strong trends and high price elasticity [15][16] - The trading strategy should leverage the T+0 trading mechanism of convertible bonds, allowing for flexible adjustments during sector rotations and maximizing trading gains from liquidity premiums [3][16] - The report highlights the need for investors to adapt their portfolio construction to align with market trends and ensure that the combination of securities reflects the prevailing market sentiment [3][16]

Primary Market - A total of 41 offshore bonds were issued this week (January 5-9, 2026), including 1 RMB bond, 29 USD bonds, 10 HKD bonds, and 1 EUR bond, with issuance sizes of 100 million RMB, 9.3675 billion USD, 17.475 billion HKD, and 2.5 billion EUR respectively [2] - In the offshore RMB bond market, the largest single issuance was 100 million RMB with a maximum coupon rate of 1.7%, all issued by the International Finance Corporation [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 3.5 billion USD by the Asian Development Bank, with the highest coupon rate of 6.25% issued by PCCW Limited [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds rose across the board this week. As of January 9, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index increased by 0.13% to 251.66; the investment-grade USD bond index rose by 0.1% to 244.63; and the high-yield USD bond index increased by 0.28% to 183.71 [3] - The real estate USD bond index rose by 0.58% to 179.72, while the city investment USD bond index fell by 0.12% to 154.4; the financial USD bond index increased by 0.15% to 291.69 [3] Benchmark Spread - As of January 9, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the U.S. narrowed to 229.73 basis points, a decrease of 1.58 basis points from the end of 2025 [4] Rating Changes - On January 5, the credit rating of Wuxi Liangxi Urban Operation Service Group Co., Ltd. was withdrawn by China Chengxin International Credit Rating due to insufficient information [6] - On January 7, Zhengzhou Zhongrui Industrial Group Co., Ltd.'s credit rating was downgraded from AA+ to AA- by Dagong Global Credit Rating [6] Domestic News - The Shanghai Clearing House is promoting the quality and expansion of Yulan bonds and free trade offshore bonds, aiming to enhance cross-border connectivity and optimize the "swap + direct clearing" path [8] - Local government bond issuance for 2026 has commenced, with Shandong Province issuing 72.381 billion RMB in local bonds on January 5. The total planned issuance for the first quarter exceeds 2.1 trillion RMB, which is significantly higher than previous years [9] - The Panda bond market officially opened this week with an issuance of 7 billion RMB, including a 1.5 billion RMB Panda bond from Henkel Group, marking its first appearance in this market [10] Overseas News - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement a slight interest rate cut this year to address labor market downturn risks, with expected rates dropping to 3.4% by the fourth quarter [12] Offshore Debt Alerts - Huaxia Happiness Holdings Co., Ltd. is facing arbitration requests from Ping An Asset Management and Ping An Life Insurance for performance compensation and overdue payment totaling approximately 6.4 billion RMB [13] - China International Capital Corporation is convening a meeting to discuss not requiring early debt repayment or additional guarantees, indicating strong asset strength and repayment capability [14] - Minmetals Land plans to repurchase approximately 251 million USD of bonds and exercise early redemption rights, with settlement expected around January 15, 2026 [15]

（原标题：天津市非金融企业债券融资突破340亿元 创近五年新高） 人民财讯1月11日电，据天津日报，日前从中国人民银行天津市分行获悉，2025年，天津市非金融企业 在银行间债券市场净融资额达340.15亿元，位居全国第八，创近五年最高纪录。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slowdown in the inflow of incremental funds into the bond market as the commodity market strengthens, with expectations of further deceleration in bond fund inflows due to structural adjustments in asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury futures, particularly the main 2603 contract, reached the lowest price since October 2024 in the past week [1] - The stock market is experiencing a seesaw effect due to adjustments in asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Several bond private equity institutions indicate that the inflow of incremental funds into the bond market may further slow down [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown of incremental capital inflow into the bond market as the commodity market strengthens, highlighting a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures have shown sensitivity to market expectations, with the main contract price hitting a low of 110.40 yuan, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [2][3]. - The recent economic recovery and rising stock market have increased risk appetite among investors, leading to a significant shift away from the bond market [3][4]. - The long-term bond yields are expected to rise, with predictions that the 30-year bond yield may exceed previous highs by over 40 basis points in the second half of 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal expansion and inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current environment presents challenges for bond investments, with significant pressure on long-term rates compared to short-term rates, necessitating a shift in investment strategies towards neutral duration and tactical trading in a range-bound market [4][7]. - The article notes a growing opportunity for alternative fixed-income strategies, such as multi-strategy, FOF, and CTA quantitative products, as capital flows out of low-yield deposits into equities [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Recent inflation data shows a slight increase in CPI by 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI has decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating mixed signals in the economy [3]. - The net supply of government bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, which is 1.4 trillion yuan higher than the actual net financing in 2025, suggesting a potential supply-demand imbalance in the bond market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has introduced the "Management Measures for Overseas Bond Issuance by State-owned Enterprises" to regulate the issuance and use of overseas bonds by state-owned enterprises, promoting healthy cross-border financing and effectively preventing external debt risks [1] Group 1: Issuance Management - State-owned enterprises are designated as the primary responsible entities for managing overseas bond issuance, required to establish management systems covering issuance principles, processes, and risk prevention [2] - Enterprises must prepare a responsible team, develop service institution management systems, complete feasibility studies, and have risk emergency plans in place before issuing bonds [2] - The decision-making process for bond issuance will vary based on the type of equity held by the state-owned enterprises, with diversified equity enterprises needing to submit relevant materials to all shareholders for approval [2] Group 2: Fund Utilization - The measures provide a clear "roadmap" for the use of funds raised through overseas bonds, emphasizing investment in major national and provincial projects, approved overseas investment projects, and other specified areas [4] - Funds raised through overseas bonds are generally required to be returned to China for use, with exceptions only for approved overseas investment activities [4] - Issuing enterprises must report detailed issuance information to the funding institutions within 10 working days after fund delivery, including details about custodial banks and foreign investor proportions [4] Group 3: Risk Control - Risk prevention is integrated throughout the entire bond management cycle, requiring enterprises to regularly assess bond risks and report any potential issues affecting principal and interest payments [5] - In case of emergencies, enterprises must report to funding institutions 30 working days before bond maturity or immediately if issues arise [5] - Commercial banks acting as bond trustees must fulfill their responsibilities regarding fund reception, transfer, and payment, and report accurately to funding institutions [5] Group 4: Incentives and Penalties - A dual mechanism of rewards and penalties is established, supporting the issuance of green bonds and allowing for favorable asset-liability ratio assessments for state-owned enterprises [6] - Enterprises with high credit ratings will benefit from streamlined procedures for bond issuance [6] - Individuals responsible for approving non-compliant bond issuances will face lifelong accountability under the principle of "whoever approves is responsible" [6]

Core Insights - The Treasury Department is facing challenges in ensuring investor absorption of new debt supply due to increasing competition from corporate bond issuances, which could lead to higher rates [1][2] - The anticipated volume of investment-grade debt for this year is estimated to reach up to $2.25 trillion, driven by the AI boom and significant investments in infrastructure by hyperscalers and related firms [1][2] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with $601 billion borrowed in the first three months of the 2026 fiscal year, indicating a substantial fiscal position [2][3] Group 1 - The increase in corporate bond issuance raises concerns about the marginal buyers of investment-grade paper, potentially leading to upward pressure on rates and mortgage spreads [2] - The federal government has seen a reduction in the deficit by $110 billion compared to the same period last year, aided by tariffs that have helped revenue exceed spending [3] - Despite recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, Treasury yields have remained stable, suggesting limited relief on debt-servicing costs, which contribute to the overall budget deficit [4] Group 2 - To maintain sufficient demand among bond investors, Treasury yields must remain competitive; failure to attract investors could lead to fiscal dominance, where the central bank may need to finance widening deficits [5] - The conditions for fiscal dominance are strengthening, with debt projected to rise to 150% of GDP over the next three decades [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has introduced the "Management Measures for the Issuance of Overseas Bonds by State-owned Enterprises" to regulate the issuance and use of overseas bonds by state-owned enterprises, promote healthy cross-border financing, and effectively prevent foreign debt risks [1][2]. Group 1: General Principles - The measures aim to standardize the issuance and use of overseas bonds by state-owned enterprises, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [2][3]. - State-owned enterprises are defined as those representing the government in investment responsibilities [2]. Group 2: Issuance Management - State-owned enterprises are responsible for establishing their own management systems for overseas bond issuance, which must include principles, processes, and risk prevention measures [5][6]. - The issuance of overseas bonds must focus on core business and align with national strategies and support for the real economy [4][19]. - A classification decision-making process is established based on the type of investment by the state-owned enterprises [8][19]. Group 3: Fund Utilization - Funds raised from overseas bonds must be included in the annual financial budget and detailed in terms of existing bond situations, annual issuance limits, and repayment plans [9][10]. - The funds should primarily be directed towards major projects, approved overseas investments, and other specified areas [10][23]. - Companies must report the details of bond issuance to the investment authority within 10 working days after fund delivery [18][23]. Group 4: Risk Control - Continuous risk assessment is required, with obligations to report potential risks affecting bond repayment [11][24]. - Commercial banks acting as bond trustees must comply with regulations regarding fund management and reporting [11][24]. - Companies must report on the progress of debt repayment preparations and funding sources at critical milestones [14][24]. Group 5: Incentives and Penalties - The measures encourage the issuance of green bonds and provide benefits for companies with high credit ratings [25][26]. - A dual mechanism of rewards and penalties is established to ensure compliance and accountability among enterprises and their management [25][26].

Group 1 - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data shows a slowdown in job growth with 50,000 new jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 60,000, indicating a continued deceleration in hiring [1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, which is better than market expectations, alleviating some concerns about a rapid weakening of the labor market [1] - Average hourly wage growth met expectations, not causing new disturbances to inflation outlook, characterizing the employment report as "moderate deceleration rather than significant imbalance" [1] Group 2 - Despite some economic indicators showing resilience, the employment data did not alter the market's core pricing for the policy direction for the year, with the rate market still anticipating about 50 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2] - Gold continues to attract funds as a hedge against policy uncertainty, with prices breaking through the $4,500 mark and reaching a high of $4,517, approaching historical highs [2] - The U.S. dollar index briefly weakened after the data release but stabilized around 99.16, with the limited fluctuation in U.S. Treasury yields providing a relatively favorable macro environment for gold [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors are also providing marginal support for gold, with recent comments from Trump regarding Greenland raising concerns about long-term uncertainties, indirectly strengthening the demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the non-farm data did not shake the market's core expectations for a loose monetary path this year, with gold continuing to be supported by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - The market will focus on upcoming U.S. inflation, retail sales, and Federal Reserve officials' statements, as the continuity of these data performances will be crucial for determining whether gold can further break into higher price ranges [3]