Group 1 - Multiple popular stocks have been recommended by at least two brokerages, particularly those related to domestic consumption, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Kweichow Moutai [2] - Dongpeng Beverage is favored for its stable energy drink business and rapid growth in electrolyte drinks as the beverage season approaches [2] - Kweichow Moutai is highlighted for signs of improvement in the liquor industry and a reduction in channel leverage [2] Group 2 - The skincare and medical beauty sector is also seeing high interest, with stocks like Proya and Aimeike receiving recommendations due to market trends favoring domestic brands and new product launches [2] - Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in May, with some expressing optimism for a potential upward trend, suggesting that adjustments present good investment opportunities [2][4] Group 3 - The A-share market is currently valued near its average since 2010, with expectations of continued inflows of medium to long-term capital due to supportive policies [3] - Suggested asset allocation includes stable assets like high-dividend stocks and gold, as well as sectors focused on domestic consumption and technology [4] Group 4 - Analysts recommend focusing on three main lines in May: consumption, technology, and dividend stocks, with an emphasis on domestic technology and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [6] - The market is expected to experience a structural recovery, with cautious optimism regarding the potential for core sectors to attract renewed investment focus post-earnings reports [6][8] Group 5 - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth technology investments with stable dividend assets, reflecting the current market environment [9] - The focus on new technologies and industry themes, as well as the implementation of policies to boost domestic demand, is crucial for investment decisions in May [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involution" in consumer culture, highlighting how businesses often replicate each other, leading to a lack of uniqueness and excitement in shopping experiences [4][20]. Group 1: Examples of Involution - Many famous shopping streets in China look almost identical, offering the same local snacks and souvenirs, which detracts from the authentic local experience [2]. - Renowned shopping centers also exhibit a high degree of similarity, with luxury brands and common products dominating the landscape, making shopping feel monotonous [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - Involution occurs because businesses tend to engage in the same practices, leading to a homogenized market [5][20]. - The article references the work of Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, who emphasizes the importance of unique offerings in combating this trend [5][20]. Group 3: Case Study of Shimokitazawa - Shimokitazawa, a vibrant Tokyo neighborhood, initially saw a decline in popularity due to the influx of chain stores, which made the area less distinctive [10][11]. - To regain its charm, the community began to reject chain stores and welcomed unique local shops, which successfully revitalized the area [12][15]. Group 4: Unique Business Strategies - The article highlights a Tommy flagship store in Tokyo that offers exclusive items not available in other locations, demonstrating the value of uniqueness in retail [16][17]. - It argues that in a world filled with sameness, distinctiveness is a rare and valuable resource [19]. Group 5: Learning from Japan - The article promotes a study trip to Japan, focusing on how the country has addressed low-growth challenges and the emergence of unique business models in a "low-desire society" [20][25]. - It suggests that understanding Japan's approach to consumer needs and societal changes can provide insights for future business strategies in China [20][25].

随着4月股市交易收官，各券商新一期的月度金股也陆续出炉。 回顾4月，券商金股展现出较强的超额收益能力，最牛金股4月大涨83%，由3家券商共同推荐。近四成券商的 金股组合4月收益率为正，东北证券、华西证券收益率超10%。 展望5月市场，券商分析师普遍认为市场将震荡，有首席直言"调整即是布局良机"；板块上，内需消费、红利、 科技受到青睐。 4月最牛金股大涨83% 4月，A股三大指数月线集体收跌，其中创业板指跌逾7%。券商金股却整体表现出较强的超额收益能力，牛股 频现。 每市APP显示，东北证券金股组合以13.28%的月收益率拔得头筹，东北证券在4月推中数只大牛股，例如推荐 的万辰集团、先达股份4月分别大涨83%、61%。 华西证券则以10.57%的月收益率排名第二，华西证券推荐的牛股包括万辰集团、聚光科技，4月分别上涨 83%、26%。第三至第五名分别为东兴证券、华鑫证券、华源证券，其金股组合的4月收益率均超7%。排名靠 后的则是国投证券，4月金股组合收益率为-8%，西南证券、浙商证券收益率也在-5%以下。 5月金股扎堆消费内需板块 与此同时，券商5月金股也在密集披露中。目前，已有多只热门股票获得不少于2家券商推 ...

随着4月股市交易收官，各券商新一期的月度金股也陆续出炉。 回顾4月，券商金股展现出较强的超额收益能力，最牛金股4月大涨83%，由3家券商共同推荐。近四成券商的金股组合4月收益率为正，东北证券、华西证券收益率 超10%。 4月，A股三大指数月线集体收跌，其中创业板指跌逾7%。券商金股却整体表现出较强的超额收益能力，牛股频现。 每市APP显示，券商推荐的4月金股中表现最牛的是万辰集团，主营量贩零食业务，由信达证券、华西证券、东北证券三家券商共同推荐，在4月份大涨83%。涨幅 第二的是农药创新药龙头先达股份，4月大涨61%，由东北证券独家推荐。 涨幅第三的是长城证券推荐的科兴制药，4月上涨55%；排名第四的是华源证券推荐的民士达，4月上涨近55%。此外，4月涨幅较高的金股还包括锦波生物、盐津铺 子、上美股份，单月 均 涨超40%。 从各券商推荐的金股当月表现来看，每市APP收录的46家券商金股数据中，有17家在4月实现正收益，占比约37%。 每市APP显示，东北证券金股组合以13.28%的月收益率拔得头筹，东北证券在4月推中数只大牛股，例如推荐的万辰集团、先达股份4月分别大涨83%、61%。 华西证券则以10.57 ...

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" 如果有一天 PMPM 偏偏消失了，会有一群消费者为它的消失而落泪。 " " 这是我们坚持做下去的动力。 " 时垠集团创始人、 CEO 闪烁在混沌创新大课上讲道。 闪烁，前宝洁中国品牌总监， 2019 年创立时垠集团，旗下有三个护肤品牌： PMPM 偏偏、 DXV （定效维）和 NodOff 。 其中， PMPM 成立的第一 年就打造出 10 个爆品， 3 个登顶天猫类目 TOP1 ，短短 4 年销售额 40 亿，用户数突破 1000 万。 上个月，闪烁在混沌创新大课上分享了时垠的人格化品牌的构建方法论 ——"10 个外显因子 ""2 个价值传递 ""1 个内核选择 " 。 以下为课程精华笔记。 授课老师 | 闪烁 时垠集团创始人、董事长兼 CEO ，混沌学园三期校友 非常感谢各位在周六早上九点与我在混沌相聚，今天我将分享两个 " 思辨 " ：一是创始人的个人使命对企业到底有何意义？特别是在如今流量竞争白热化 的时代，它是否仍具价值？二是我将坦诚分享一个独家方法论，叫做人格化品牌是如何诞生与成长的？ 接下来，我们进入第一个环节，探讨创始人的个人使命对企业发展，尤其是对初创企业是否有意义？ 为什么时垠在短短几 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance with significant revenue growth driven by key products and brand strategies [6][5]. - The financial outlook remains positive with projected revenue and profit growth over the next few years [5][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its marketing strategies and enhancing product offerings to capture market share [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2,970 million, with a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 342 million, reflecting a growth of 31.7% [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 73.7%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points compared to the previous year [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 438 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from eye care products reached 689 million, a year-on-year increase of 60.78% [6]. - Skincare products generated 1,125 million, growing by 21.60% year-on-year [6]. - The main brand, Marubi, achieved revenue of 2,055 million, up 31.69% year-on-year, while the sub-brand, Lianhuo, saw a 40.72% increase [6]. Marketing Strategy - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts around key products, participating in major online promotional events, and leveraging social media for brand engagement [6]. - The focus on big-ticket items and targeted marketing campaigns has resulted in significant brand visibility and consumer connection [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on projected earnings growth and valuation metrics [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.736 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.87%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.53% to 503 million yuan [2][5]. - The main revenue source is the brand "Winona," which saw a revenue decline of 5.45% to 4.909 billion yuan, while "Winona Baby" and "Aikeman" experienced significant growth of 34.03% and 65.59%, respectively [2][4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.74%, with a slight decrease of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin decreased by 4.93 percentage points to 8.77% [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.285 billion yuan, 7.153 billion yuan, and 8.146 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.6%, 13.8%, and 13.9% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover to 700 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 39.2%, followed by 856 million yuan in 2026 and 1.059 billion yuan in 2027 [5][7]. - The report indicates an increase in operating expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios rising significantly in recent quarters [3][4]. Brand Strategy and Market Position - The company is expanding its market presence with a multi-brand strategy, focusing on the main brand "Winona" and introducing new products in the sensitive skin segment [4]. - The launch of the "Winona 2.0" strategy aims to enhance brand positioning and product offerings, which is expected to drive long-term growth [4][5].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 读 2025-04-26 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 顾与展望 研究结论 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并 ...

Core Viewpoint - Betaini, once known as the "cosmetic medicine leader," faces its most severe challenge since its listing in Q1 2025, with a significant decline in revenue and profit [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the period was 949 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was only 28.34 million yuan, down 83.97% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow was negative, reaching -68.65 million yuan in Q1 [2] Brand and Market Position - The core brand, Winona, is experiencing a slowdown in growth and a weakening market position, which poses the biggest risk to Betaini [1] - Winona's ranking in the beauty category on Tmall dropped from 5th to 9th during the 2023 Double 11 shopping festival [1] - The company has invested 536 million yuan in acquiring brands like Jirui and Bomei, but these new businesses have not effectively supported the company's performance [1] Industry Challenges - The competitive landscape in the efficacy skincare sector has intensified, leading to increased pressure on Betaini [1] - The company's reliance on online channels is showing signs of fatigue, with offline channels also facing challenges due to reduced foot traffic [1] - The current business model of "heavy marketing and light R&D" is proving to be limited, necessitating a shift towards innovation and product strength [2]