Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with the business activity index rising to 49.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - New orders and business activity expectation indices have improved by 1.6 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, indicating a synchronized improvement in the sector [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced a total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools aimed at supplementing project capital, with funds being rapidly allocated to specific projects [1] Group 2 - The construction industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to the accelerated implementation of key construction projects and special bond funds [1] - The manufacturing PMI production index has reached its highest level since April 2025, with external demand improving more than internal demand, which may indirectly support the construction and decoration industries [1] - The Infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (930608), which selects listed companies involved in the construction and machinery sectors to reflect the overall performance of the infrastructure construction field in China [1] Group 3 - The CSI Infrastructure Index has a high industry concentration, clearly reflecting the "infrastructure" theme, with constituent stocks primarily consisting of leading enterprises in the industry [1] - The index has a high state-owned enterprise characteristic, relatively low valuation levels, and good liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has announced the 2025 Green Factory Recommendation Work, focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction to enhance the green competitiveness of industries, supporting enterprises in 53 key sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The recommendation work includes green factories and green industrial parks, with enterprises or parks meeting the requirements voluntarily conducting self-evaluations based on new evaluation criteria [2][4]. - Provincial industrial and information departments will select enterprises or parks based on the principle of "choosing the best among the best" and ensuring that recommended entities meet or exceed the average level of existing national green factories and parks in their regions [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Requirements - New applicants for national green factories and industrial parks must register on the management platform, complete self-evaluations, and provide supporting materials without needing third-party evaluation reports [3][4]. - Existing national green factories and parks must also log onto the management platform for self-evaluation against new criteria, with those scoring in the bottom 5% for three consecutive years being removed from the list [5][6]. Group 3: Work Requirements - Provincial departments are required to enhance the verification of data and supporting materials for enterprises or parks to ensure the quality of recommendations, with a deadline for submission set for November 7, 2025 [6]. - Experts from MIIT will review the recommended lists, ensuring a rigorous selection process, and any entity found to have falsified data will be removed from the list and barred from reapplying for three years [6]. Group 4: Key Industry List - The key industries supported in this initiative include steel, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics [12].

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing strong structural characteristics, with a focus on growth sectors, and the trend of manufacturing upgrades is expected to create structural investment opportunities in the medium to long term [2][10]. Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Non-ferrous metals continue to rise, while other cyclical products show mixed price performance. In September, the prices of thermal coal, cement index, and glass index increased by 1.3%, 0.6%, and 2.4% respectively, while prices for coking coal, coke, rebar, iron ore, and chemical indices fell by 2.2%, 1.2%, 2.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut in September aligns with market expectations, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, while industrial metals and some minor metals (cobalt, tungsten) also saw price increases [3]. 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition supports demand for electrical equipment, and policies aimed at reducing competition are catalyzing price rebounds across various segments of the photovoltaic industry. In August, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and exports increased by 13% [4]. - The new energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with wind and solar installations increasing by 72% and 65% year-on-year respectively [4]. 3) Consumer Products - The growth rate of home appliance sales has slowed, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners all showing a 1% year-on-year increase in August. The textile and apparel sectors are also facing challenges in both domestic and overseas demand [5]. - The average daily room rate (ADR), occupancy rate (OCC), and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel sector all saw year-on-year declines of 0.6%, 1.5%, and 2.1% respectively [5]. 4) Technology - The strong demand for AI computing power continues to be validated, driving growth in sub-sectors such as optical modules, switches, and servers. In July, major cloud service providers adjusted their 2025 capital expenditure guidance upwards [6]. - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 20.6% year-on-year in July, and China's semiconductor sales growing by 10.4% [6]. 5) Financials - The insurance sector saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in premium income in August, while the total assets of insurance companies grew by approximately 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - The real estate sector remains at a low point, with a 0.5% year-on-year decline in property sales area in September, despite a slight month-on-month increase [7]. 6) Recommendations - Focus on AI computing and robotics-related industries, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry conditions occurs [8]. - Consider sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals, which are still in a favorable supply-demand cycle [8]. - Monitor the "14th Five-Year Plan" related fields, especially as the upcoming meeting in October may provide insights into policy directions [8].

（原标题：韩出口过度依赖半导体） 然而，剔除半导体后，韩国出口疲软态势明显。今年前8个月整体出口额为4538.27亿美元，同比微 增0.87%，但化工品、汽车零部件、机械、钢铁等主要品类均出现下滑，半导体之外的出口额为3495.33 亿美元，同比下降2.8%。今年7月和8月整体出口虽小幅增长，但非半导体出口分别下降0.3%和5.5%。 专家警告称，过度依赖半导体将加剧韩国贸易的脆弱性，因其高度周期性可能导致出口大幅波动。韩国 贸易协会指出，2024年韩国出口品类集中度指数高达520，远超日本（389）、中国（129）、法国 （118）等，显示出严重依赖少数品类和市场，需推动出口多元化及新兴产业发展以分散风险。 韩国《每日经济》9月24日报道，韩关税厅当日公布数据显示，今年1至8月半导体出口额达1042.09 亿美元，同比增加15.7%，占整体出口比重升至23%，较2023年的21%和2022年的15.9%进一步提高。受 惠于D-RAM、NAND价格上涨及AI相关高带宽存储器需求扩大，半导体呈现"独自繁荣"态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated the 2025 Green Factory Recommendation Work to enhance energy conservation and carbon reduction, focusing on 53 key industries to improve the green competitiveness of enterprises [1][5]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The recommendation work includes both green factories and green industrial parks, with enterprises or parks voluntarily conducting self-evaluations based on new evaluation criteria [5][6]. - Provincial industrial and information departments will select enterprises or parks that meet the requirements, ensuring that recommended entities are at least at the average level of existing national green factories and parks in their regions [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Requirements - New applicants for national green factories and parks must register on the Industrial Energy Conservation and Green Development Management Platform and complete self-evaluations without needing third-party evaluation reports [6][7]. - Existing national green factories and parks are required to conduct self-evaluations against new criteria, with those scoring in the bottom 5% for three consecutive years being removed from the list [6][7]. Group 3: Work Requirements - Provincial departments must ensure the authenticity and accuracy of data and supporting materials submitted by enterprises or parks, with a deadline for submission set for November 7, 2025 [7]. - The MIIT will review the recommended lists and publicize the final list of 2025 green factories and parks, with penalties for any falsification of data [7]. Group 4: Key Industries - The 53 key industries supported in this initiative include sectors such as steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, light industry, textiles, and electronics [14][15][16][17][18][19][20].

每经讯，2025年10月9日，新三板创新层公司天宜机械（832654，收盘价：2.33元）登上龙虎榜，交易方式是集合竞价，披露原 因是当日价格振幅达到129.13%，成交数量9.87万股，成交金额23万元。买一席位为中信建投证券股份有限公司宜昌云集路证券 营业部，买入5.99万元；卖一席位为国海证券股份有限公司四川分公司，卖出20.04万元。 | | 2025-10-09天宜机械(832654) 龙虎榜 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 交易营业部名称 | 买入金额(元) | 卖出金额(元) | | न्द्र ग | 中信建投证券股份有限公司宜昌云集路证券营业部 | 59906.63 | 0 | | 买2 | 华泰证券股份有限公司宜昌西陵一路证券营业部 | 48855.38 | 0 | | ポ3 | 长江证券股份有限公司宜昌沿江大道证券营业部 | 46655.92 | 0 | | नेटर | 东莞证券股份有限公司成都高升桥路证券营业部 | 23300 | 0 | | ન્નેર | 恒泰证券股份有限公司上海海伦路证券营业部 | 13800 | 6060.33 | ...

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Securities Firms' Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the securities firms' golden stock pool to outperform the benchmark, which is the median of equity-biased hybrid fund indices. The model leverages a multi-factor approach to select stocks with high alpha potential while controlling for deviations in individual stocks and style factors from the golden stock pool [39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The securities firms' golden stock pool is used as the stock selection universe and constraint benchmark. - A multi-factor model is applied to further optimize the selection of stocks from the pool. - The portfolio is constructed by controlling the deviation of individual stocks and style factors from the golden stock pool. - The industry allocation is based on the distribution of all public funds [43]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong alpha generation potential and consistently outperforms the equity-biased hybrid fund index. It reflects the research strength of securities firms and their ability to capture market trends effectively [43]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Securities Firms' Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio** - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: -0.55% (2025/09/01 - 2025/09/30) [42] - **Excess Return (Monthly)**: -3.50% relative to equity-biased hybrid fund index (2025/09/01 - 2025/09/30) [42] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 33.26% (2025/01/02 - 2025/09/30) [42] - **Excess Return (Year-to-Date)**: 1.19% relative to equity-biased hybrid fund index (2025/01/02 - 2025/09/30) [42] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 43.07% percentile (1494/3469) [42] - **Historical Performance (2018-2025)**: - Annualized Return: 19.34% - Annualized Excess Return: 14.38% relative to equity-biased hybrid fund index - Consistently ranked in the top 30% of active equity funds each year [44][47] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: Intraday Return - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the return generated within a single trading day to capture short-term price movements [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in the most recent month [27][28]. 2. **Factor Name**: BP (Book-to-Price Ratio) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market price [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well in the most recent month but underperformed year-to-date [27][28]. 3. **Factor Name**: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of variation in a stock's price over a specific period, capturing risk and uncertainty [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Showed strong performance in the most recent month but underperformed year-to-date [27][28]. 4. **Factor Name**: Total Market Capitalization - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the total market value of a company's outstanding shares, often used to gauge company size [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed in the most recent month but performed well year-to-date [27][28]. 5. **Factor Name**: SUE (Standardized Unexpected Earnings) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of actual earnings from expected earnings, standardized by the standard deviation of past earnings surprises [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed in the most recent month [27][28]. 6. **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Earnings Surprise - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the magnitude of earnings surprises in a single quarter [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed in the most recent month but performed well year-to-date [27][28]. 7. **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Revenue Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth in revenue over a single quarter, reflecting a company's sales performance [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well year-to-date [27][28]. 8. **Factor Name**: Analyst Net Upward Revision - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the net number of upward revisions in analysts' earnings estimates for a stock [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Performed well year-to-date [27][28]. 9. **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the expected annual dividend payments as a percentage of the stock price [27][28]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Underperformed year-to-date [27][28]. --- Factors' Backtesting Results 1. **Intraday Return Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Strong [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Not specified [27][28] 2. **BP Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Strong [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Weak [27][28] 3. **Volatility Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Strong [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Weak [27][28] 4. **Total Market Capitalization Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Weak [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Strong [27][28] 5. **SUE Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Weak [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Not specified [27][28] 6. **Single-Quarter Earnings Surprise Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Weak [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Strong [27][28] 7. **Single-Quarter Revenue Growth Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Not specified [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Strong [27][28] 8. **Analyst Net Upward Revision Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Not specified [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Strong [27][28] 9. **Expected Dividend Yield Factor** - **Recent Month Performance**: Not specified [27][28] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Weak [27][28]

"券商金股"组合既能够体现总量分析师（如宏观、策略、金融工程等团队）自上而下的行业、板块及风格配置能力，又能够反映行业分析师自下而上的选股能力， 是券商研究所研究实力核心竞争力的体现。 一、券商金股股票池上月回顾 2025年9月，江波龙、协创数据、精智达等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度靠前。 2025年9月，华安证券、华龙证券、方正证券收益排名前三，月度收益分别为 17.45%、15.17%、14.38%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益5.52%，沪深300指数收 益3.20%。 2025年以来，东北证券、华鑫证券、国元证券收益排名前三，年度收益分别为 93.33%、90.50%、69.67%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益35.37%，沪深300指数 收益17.94%。 二、券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，日内收益率、BP、波动率表现较好，总市值、SUE、单季度超预期 幅度表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、单季度营收增速、分析师净上调幅度表现较好，波动率、预 期股息率、BP表现较差。 三、券商金股股票池本月特征 截至2025年10月9日，共有42家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票池进行去重 后，总共有304只A ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -19% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 18% 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 2025.09 上证指数 深证成指 | 周度策略：一周要闻与投资参考(2025.0929-1005） | | --- | | 周度策略：一周要闻与投资参考(2025.0922-0928） | | 市场分析：航天汽车行业领涨 A 股震荡整固 | | 市场分析：电源计算机领涨 A 股小幅整理 | | 宏观专题：我国科创债市场发展及民营企业参与度分析 | | 【行业公司】 | 行业深度分析：上半年业绩小幅增长，二季度环比进一步改善 行业月报：八月国内新增光伏装机需求显著萎缩，多晶硅能耗标准拟大幅 提升 行业月报：周期为盾，成长为矛，关注工程机械、船舶、机器人、AIDC 等高景气板块 行业月报：稳增长工作方案出台，助力行业高质量发展 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | - ...