Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights a resilient industrial production alongside rapid export growth, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak, indicating a year-long trend of "strong production versus weak demand, and better external demand than internal demand" [1] Economic Environment - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank governor indicating room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year [1] - The current macroeconomic environment shares similarities with the investment peak period of 2020-2021, as interbank rates have dropped to nearly the lowest levels since 2020 [1] Investment Opportunities - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity favors structural investment opportunities in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors include AI semiconductors and renewable energy, which are currently at the core of economic vitality [1] - Emerging hotspots are continuously catalyzing growth, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] Sector Performance - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics exceeds expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, shows a high forecast for 2025 earnings, indicating a positive outlook [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] Market Trends - Since December, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while industrial production remains resilient and exports are growing rapidly, domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment are still weak, highlighting a characteristic of "strong production versus weak demand" throughout the previous year [1] Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment shows similarities to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, with interbank interest rates at their lowest levels since 2020 [1] - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity is expected to favor structural investment opportunities in certain sectors [1] Sector Insights - In the technology sector, AI semiconductors and new energy are identified as the core areas of current prosperity, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics has exceeded expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The innovative drug sector is seeing value realization driven by business development transactions, clinical breakthroughs, and new drug approvals [1] Resource Sector - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance improvement rate for 2025, with attention on the subsequent transmission of prosperity to the energy and machinery sectors [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to gradually shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] - Since December 2025, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

Group 1 - The economic operation characteristic of "production stronger than demand, external demand better than internal demand" has persisted throughout the year, with macroeconomic indicators showing weakness and a loose monetary policy environment [2][3][6] - Industrial production remains resilient, with December's industrial added value growing by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][36] - The export amount in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, also better than expected [6][36] Group 2 - Recent weeks have seen a significant outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs, exceeding 570 billion yuan, while thematic industry ETFs have seen inflows of around 110 billion yuan [3][12][43] - The current market sentiment remains high, with investor sentiment indices indicating a state of excitement, suggesting potential short-term risks [10][40] Group 3 - The focus on investment should be on "technology + resource products," with AI semiconductors and new energy being the core areas of current prosperity [4][35] - Emerging hotspots such as AI applications, space photovoltaics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are continuously catalyzing market interest [4][50][51] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance rate for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][54] - The South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5% since December, while energy and industrial product indices have only increased by about 7%, suggesting better investment value in the non-ferrous sector [5][54] Group 5 - The AI and semiconductor sectors maintain high levels of prosperity, driven by demand for AI model training and inference, which boosts the associated supply chain [50] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery, supported by growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage [50][51]

- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which indicates a "bullish" view for all major indices except the ChiNext Index as of January 23, 2026[30][31][33] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 Index with positive returns over the past N days. The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[32][34][36] - The **moving average sentiment indicator** is based on the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the current price relative to these moving averages. A value greater than 5 indicates a bullish signal for the CSI 300 Index[40][44] - The **cross-sectional volatility factor** is analyzed, showing that the CSI 300 Index's cross-sectional volatility increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, suggesting a deteriorated alpha environment[45][46] - The **time-series volatility factor** is also evaluated, revealing that the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased week-over-week, indicating a worsening alpha environment. Over the past quarter, the CSI 300 Index's volatility was in the lower range of the past six months, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were in the middle range[46][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Europe, particularly in light of President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European goods while linking them to territorial issues, specifically the purchase of Greenland, which has provoked a strong response from European nations [1][8]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threats - Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, as a means to pressure these countries into selling Greenland [1][3]. - The tariffs are seen as a coercive tactic that undermines the sovereignty of European nations, with Trump framing the purchase of Greenland as a legitimate goal [1][6]. Group 2: European Response - In response to Trump's threats, eight European countries issued a joint statement condemning the actions as damaging to ally relations [3]. - Germany took a leading role in proposing three countermeasures, including reinstating a list of retaliatory tariffs on iconic American products worth approximately €2.8 billion [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Measures - The first countermeasure involves the reactivation of a pre-existing list of retaliatory tariffs targeting American products such as motorcycles and bourbon [4]. - The second measure is the activation of the EU's "anti-coercion tool," which allows for quicker responses to trade threats without lengthy WTO procedures [4]. - The third measure emphasizes the need for Europe to accelerate its "de-Americanization" efforts, particularly in defense and economic sectors, to ensure strategic autonomy [4][6]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The situation reflects a significant shift in European sentiment, moving from passive acceptance to a more assertive stance on sovereignty and economic independence [8][15]. - The unity among European nations, particularly Germany and France, indicates a collective determination to respond to perceived U.S. overreach, marking a departure from previous tolerance of U.S. unilateralism [8][9]. - The urgency of the situation is underscored by the impending tariff implementation date, which adds pressure on Europe to present a united front against U.S. demands [13][15].

Group 1 - The "spring rally" is seen as a precursor to the annual market trend, driven by strong policy expectations, central bank liquidity injections, and a vacuum period for economic data and earnings reports [1][5][6] - Historical data from 2005 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally lasts an average of 70 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a 20% increase during this period [3][7] - Leading sectors during the spring rally include growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, with strong performances from industries such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, computers, military, construction materials, electric power, chemicals, and electronics [1][2][6] Group 2 - The current "atypical spring rally" began in late December 2025, influenced by the resolution of external uncertainties and an increase in A500 ETF subscriptions [1][5] - The spring rally is expected to continue until around the Lunar New Year, with an optimistic outlook extending to early March [3][7] - The funding environment is favorable, with a significant amount of 3Y and 5Y residential time deposits maturing, a recovery in public equity fund issuance, and increased allocation of equity by insurance funds, indicating potential for further capital inflow [3][7] Group 3 - The spring rally serves as a seasonal effect, with its occurrence being consistent except for 2008 and 2018, where it did not extend to the Lunar New Year [2][6] - The end of the spring rally often coincides with changes in macroeconomic factors, and its sustainability in the second half of the year is closely related to the equity cycle, policy environment, economic fundamentals, and external variables [3][7] - As the market approaches the political meetings in early March, expectations regarding monetary and fiscal policies may be adjusted, and the market will also be assessing the first-quarter earnings reports for alignment with expectations [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a "cooling" phase with significant divergence among major indices, indicating a shift into a consolidation phase for heavyweight indices while growth indices remain strong [1][4][9]. Market Overview - The major indices have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average, entering a consolidation phase [1][4]. - Growth indices such as CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 remain above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for upward movement [4][9]. - Market sentiment has weakened, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in the premium of stock index futures contracts [2]. Sector Analysis - Lagging sectors are showing signs of catching up, while the financial sector is weakening and telecommunications are showing signs of recovery [2]. - The valuation levels of major indices have increased, suggesting a potential for further growth [2]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [3][8]. - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, which may influence market liquidity [3][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly raised securities investment funds [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a balanced mid-term portfolio in sectors with high economic activity and reasonable stock prices, particularly in the "two electricity and chemical non-machine" sectors [5][10]. - In the context of a "broad-based rally" pattern, it is advised to focus on indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 for relative returns [5][10]. - There is an opportunity to consider Hong Kong stocks, which have seen relatively lower gains, for potential buy-in during market pullbacks [5][10].

作者 丨易妍君 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓 股名单随之更新。 从持股绝对市值来看，据国信证券经济研究所金融工程组统计， 截至2025年4季度末，主动权 益基金持有市值排名前十的个股依次是：中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿 业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 编辑丨张星 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末， 中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包 括主动股票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中际旭创 股价 报585 元，总市值6500亿元。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控 股成为基金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七 大重仓股；而宁德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓 股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增 配较多的行业包括有色金属、通信 ...

Core Viewpoint - Finland is a significant economic and trade partner for China in Europe and the first European country to sign a government trade agreement with China [1][2] Group 1: Bilateral Trade and Investment - By 2025, the bilateral trade volume between China and Finland is expected to exceed 8 billion USD, with mutual investment stock surpassing 23 billion USD [2] - In 2024, the total trade volume between China and Finland reached 14.121 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, accounting for 6.14% of Finland's total trade [6] - The total goods trade between China and Finland was 11.118 billion euros, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, representing 7.5% of Finland's goods trade [6] Group 2: Export and Import Details - Finland's exports to China amounted to 4.675 billion euros, increasing by 9.59% year-on-year, making up 6.09% of Finland's total exports [6] - The largest category of exports to China is pulp and waste paper, accounting for 30%, followed by special industrial machinery at 11% [6] - Imports from China totaled 6.443 billion euros, showing a slight decline of 0.83% year-on-year, representing 9.13% of Finland's total imports [6] - The largest category of imports from China is electrical machinery and parts, accounting for 25%, followed by telecommunications and recording equipment at 14.5% [6] Group 3: High-Level Visits and Cooperation - Finnish Prime Minister Orpo will visit China from January 25 to 28, leading a delegation of over 20 business executives from key sectors such as machinery, forestry, innovation, clean energy, and food [2][4] - The visit aims to deepen bilateral economic relations, with plans to sign a memorandum of understanding to strengthen the work of the China-Finland Innovation Enterprise Cooperation Committee [4] - Approximately 50 representatives from Chinese enterprises have registered to participate in the upcoming meeting, indicating strong interest in collaboration [4]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis, as it primarily focuses on the analysis of active equity funds' holdings, preferences, and structural changes in Q4 2025[3][6][7] - The report provides detailed insights into the number, scale, and allocation preferences of active equity funds, including their industry and sectoral adjustments, but does not include any specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[3][6][7] - The analysis highlights the changes in fund holdings and preferences, such as increased allocation to cyclical and financial sectors and reduced allocation to technology and healthcare, but no quantitative models or factors are discussed[44][48][49]