1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic and financial situation is complex and volatile, with various factors affecting different markets. In the commodity market, precious metals experience significant price fluctuations, and there are supply - demand imbalances in some metals. In the financial market, the bond market is in a state of shock, and the stock market shows a mixed performance. International trade relations also have an impact on the market, such as the potential tariff adjustments between countries [5][21][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In December 2025, China's GDP growth rate slowed down, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends, and the social financing scale decreased compared with the previous month. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 also changed, and consumer and producer prices showed different trends. Fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, while consumption and trade maintained growth but with varying degrees of slowdown [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warns of market risks due to complex international situations. Some funds and banks adjust relevant parameters, and there are changes in commodity base - spreads. In addition, the Fed's interest - rate decisions and international trade tariff policies also affect the market [2][3][4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Precious metals experience a "roller - coaster" price movement. Gold jewelry prices reach a record high, and there are different outlooks for the gold market in the short - and long - term. The copper market is expected to have supply shortages in 2026 and 2027, and there are changes in the inventories of various metals [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - China's stainless - steel production increased in 2025, while imports decreased. India explores coal reserves in Canada, and Brazil raises steel import tariffs. The Trump administration retreats from the plan to guarantee the minimum price of key mineral projects [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Venezuela reforms its petroleum law to allow private and foreign investment. The US imposes potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba [9][10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Chinese government conducts spring seed market inspections. There are changes in US soybean sales, EU crop production forecasts, and Brazil's coffee - baking industry revenue [11][12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducts 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds into the market [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the UK reach a series of cooperation agreements, including in the financial field and tariff reduction. China promotes service - consumption growth, and there are positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are also news in areas such as transportation, culture and tourism, and finance [15][16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is in a state of shock, with different performances of short - and long - term bonds. There are price changes in exchange - traded bonds, and the convertible - bond market shows a decline. Interest rates in the money market and bond - issuing yields also have different trends [21][22][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar change, and the US dollar index declines, while most non - US currencies rise [26]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms have different views on the Fed's interest - rate decisions, short - term debt pricing, and the bond market [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - There are a large number of bond listings, issuances, payments, and principal - and - interest repayments on January 30, 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market shows a narrow - range consolidation, with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the decline of other indices. The liquor, gold, oil and gas, and real - estate sectors perform strongly, while some high - tech sectors decline. The Hong Kong stock market also shows a mixed performance, with the rise of the Hang Seng Index and the decline of the Hang Seng Tech Index [30].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The report believes that crude oil will operate strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong. The core logic is that geopolitical risks have increased, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong stance on Friday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Crude Oil 2603 - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Strong [1] - View reference: Strong operation [1] - Core logic: Geopolitical risks have increased, and crude oil operates strongly [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [5] - Reference view: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals. Greenland and Canada may be the next targets for the US to seize and attack. With the short - term arrival of US aircraft carriers in the Middle East and Iran's tough remarks, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening Middle East crude oil exports. Geopolitical risks have increased again, overshadowing the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market and boosting the sharp rise of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Thursday night [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The State Council General Office issued a work plan to foster new growth points in service consumption, identifying key service - consumption areas such as transportation, household services, online audio - visual, sojourn, automotive aftermarket, and inbound consumption [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized that "anti - involution" is the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's governance and will use various means to promote its healthy development [2] - Trump stated that Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, plans to announce the nomination for the next Fed Chair next week, and the US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [2] - As of the week ending January 29,螺纹产量 increased by 0.14% to 199.83 million tons, total inventory reached 475.53 million tons with a weekly increase of 23.43 million tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 4.92% to 176.40 million tons [2] - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with central banks net - buying 230 tons in Q4 (a 6% increase from the previous quarter) and 863 tons for the whole year [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The State Council General Office issued a work plan with 12 policy measures in three aspects to boost service consumption, targeting specific key areas [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry, highlighting the need for "anti - involution" and using market - and law - based means for regulation [2] - Trump made statements about the Ukraine situation, Fed Chair nomination, and Venezuelan airspace [2] - Steel data shows changes in production, inventory, and demand for rebar as of January 29 [2] - The World Gold Council reported record - high global gold demand in 2025 and significant central - bank gold purchases [2] Key Focus - The report focuses on urea, synthetic rubber, polysilicon, crude oil, and PP [3] Night - session Performance - Different commodity sectors had various night - session performance, with the precious metals sector having a 39.21% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 26.56%, and the coal - coke - steel - ore sector with 7.90% [3] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in the positions of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly increase of 4.77%, and an annual increase of 4.77% [5] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 美元/盎司。美联储政策分歧、美国政府停摆 风险及伊朗军事演习加剧市场避险情绪，叠加特朗普降息呼吁与新任主席宽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide a comprehensive industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual products, the general outlooks are mostly "震荡" (oscillating), which implies a neutral stance in the short - to - medium term for most energy and chemical products. 2. Core Viewpoints - The confrontation between the US and Iran has intensified, driving up Brent crude oil futures prices to $70 per barrel for the first time since September, and SC crude oil futures almost hit the daily limit. This has led to an increase in the cost of oil - based chemical products. Meanwhile, the chemical industry chain is entering the off - season, with开工率 (operating rates) of many downstream sectors such as textile and polyester declining [2]. - The overall view is that the situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran relationship, will support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry should be treated with an oscillating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical factors dominate the market rhythm. The situation in Iran is expected to increase supply concerns, and short - term support comes from a weak US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook is oscillating as the fundamental supply is in surplus, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: Geopolitical premiums and rising spot prices have led to a significant increase in asphalt futures prices. Although the current price is in an over - valued range, the cost of crude oil supports the price. The outlook is oscillating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The inventory accumulation pressure is high due to the off - season demand [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premiums support high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela and the substitution of fuel oil in the Middle East's power - generation sector are long - term negative factors. The outlook is oscillating, with short - term focus on geopolitical trends in the Middle East [9]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil and oscillates strongly. Although it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation may lead it to follow the movement of crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [12]. 3.5 PX - **View**: The valuation of chemical products is relatively high, and the price increase is less than that of crude oil. The short - term supply and demand pattern is prone to inventory accumulation, but the market has expectations for future supply reduction due to maintenance. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with short - term price support at around 7,250 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract [13]. 3.6 PTA - **View**: Supply has increased, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and profits have been compressed. The cost support from rising international oil prices remains, but the high valuation of the chemical industry limits the price increase. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with support at around 5,200 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: It oscillates due to the game between expectations and reality. Short - term high inventory may limit the price increase, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in the first quarter. The outlook is oscillating [15]. 3.8 Styrene - **View**: Recent price increases are due to capital behavior and export expectations. The short - term supply is tight, but seasonal inventory accumulation may lead to a profit reduction. The outlook is oscillating, and the reduction amplitude is expected to be limited [18]. 3.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The driving force is general, and it is more affected by the commodity market atmosphere and device disturbances. The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to adjust within a range. The outlook is for short - term price consolidation within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract [19]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Spot trading is weak, and the driving force is general. The cost has a certain supporting effect, but the demand is seasonally weak. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream market, and the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end [22]. 3.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations, and the support at the lower end of the profit is strengthening. The price is mainly anchored to the cost of upstream raw materials and has no obvious trend. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw material price, the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end, and attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA position [24]. 3.12 Methanol - **View**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic production area is reducing prices to clear inventory, while the consumer market is relatively strong. The coastal market is affected by the low - start of downstream MTO devices and high inventory. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term trading may be mainly affected by overseas situations [26]. 3.13 Urea - **View**: The pre - holiday factory order collection is smooth, and the price is slightly strengthening. The supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector has a certain increase, while the industrial demand is cautious. The outlook is oscillating, and in the short - term, the price may fluctuate slightly and may be slightly strengthening [27]. 3.14 LLDPE - **View**: Supported by raw materials, it follows the upward trend. The increase in oil prices and natural gas prices has a positive impact, but the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up of spot prices is limited. The outlook is short - term oscillation [32]. 3.15 PP - **View**: It follows the upward trend of oil prices in the short - term. The increase in oil prices and the repair of production profits are positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. The outlook is short - term oscillation [33]. 3.16 PL - **View**: The inventory pressure is not large, and it oscillates. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The outlook is short - term oscillation [34]. 3.17 PVC - **View**: Supported by low valuation, it oscillates. Geopolitical factors and the "export at low prices" strategy provide certain support, but the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term "export at low prices" and low valuation support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed [37]. 3.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The electricity price has been slightly reduced, and the cost is decreasing. The high production and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation, and the spot price is under pressure. The outlook is oscillating and slightly weakening, and short positions should stop losses at low prices before the Spring Festival [39]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides detailed inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different contract spreads [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for multiple products, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [42]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and between PTA and ethylene glycol, which helps in analyzing the relative price relationships between different products [43]. 4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the sub - sections for each product are listed, the specific data and analysis content are not fully filled in the report. 5. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all show an upward trend. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by + 2.61% to 2995.74, and the energy index rose by + 2.48% to 1195.87 on January 29, 2026 [283][284].

1月29日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布国家紧急状态，威胁对向古巴提供石油的国家加征关税。此前特朗 普发文威胁古巴尽快"达成协议"，否则将面临零石油、零资金流入古巴的局面。特朗普说古巴依赖委内 瑞拉提供的石油和资金生存，古巴为委方提供"安全服务"。特朗普声称这种关系"现在已经终结"，报道 称他未说明要求古巴达成何种协议。 ...

Core Insights - The wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China increased on January 29, with the average wholesale price of 92 gasoline at 7,374 yuan per ton, up by 15 yuan per ton, and diesel at 6,095 yuan per ton, up by 4 yuan per ton [1] Market Overview - The rise in wholesale prices is supported by an increase in international crude oil futures prices on January 28, leading to expectations of higher domestic refined oil retail prices. However, market participation remains limited, resulting in a subdued purchasing atmosphere [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, gasoline demand is gradually increasing, contributing to the firmness in gasoline prices [1] Regional Price Changes - Gasoline wholesale prices increased in regions including Heilongjiang, Fujian, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Jilin, Shaanxi, Chongqing, and Shanghai, while prices decreased in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan [1] - Diesel wholesale prices rose in Gansu, Heilongjiang, Fujian, Beijing, Sichuan, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Shaanxi, and Henan, but fell in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, and Guangxi [1] - In Shandong, both gasoline and diesel prices increased [1] Data Source - The price data is published by the Energy Big Data Laboratory of the China Economic Information Agency and the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center, reflecting the overall situation of China's gasoline and diesel wholesale market [1]

根据《石油价格管理办法》规定，国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一 次，调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时，不作调整，纳入下次调价时累加或 冲抵。出现办法规定的特殊情形时，可以暂停、延迟调价，或缩小调价幅度。 1月30日是本计价周期的第八个工作日，调价窗口将在2月3日24时开启。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月30日电新华社石油价格系统1月30日发布的数据显示，1月29日一揽子原油平均价格变 化率为4.41%。 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/30 金十数据1月30日讯，伊朗总统府29日发表声明说，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬当天表示，如果美国寻求谈判与真正的外交， 就必须停止挑衅和制造紧张的行动。佩泽希齐扬当天下午分别与卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆、巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹通电话，就 美国破坏稳定的行动所引发地区紧张局势交换意见。他在通话中感谢卡塔尔和巴基斯坦给予支持，并表示希望伊斯兰国 家之间的团结合作进一步加强和深化。 ·特朗普宣布国家紧急状态 并对向古巴输油的国家加征关税 美国白宫：特朗普签署行政命令，宣布进入国家紧急状态，并建立一项程序，对向古巴出售或以其他方式提供石油的国 家的商品征收关税。 ·委内瑞拉证实委美将重启商业航班 金十数据1月30日讯，委内瑞拉总统府29日发布消息，证实委内瑞拉同美国将恢复商业航空往来。消息说，委美之间的 商业航空空域将"立即重启"，这是委内瑞拉代总统罗德里格斯和美国总统特朗普通话的结果。当天早些时候，特朗普在 内阁会议上说，他已指示美国交通部长达菲和包括军方在内的所有相关人员在"29日结束前"开放委内瑞拉空域，以便美 国公民很快能够前往该国。美国航空公司方面随后说，计划在政府批准和安 ...