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11月27日青岛市重要民生商品价格监测日报告
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-11-28 08:01
Core Insights - The overall price of essential goods in Qingdao remains stable, with sufficient reserves and no significant price fluctuations reported [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - The average retail price of flour (Type 1) is 2.35 yuan per 500 grams, long-grain rice is 3.29 yuan, and peanut oil (5-liter container) is 133.10 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2: Meat Prices - Prices for various meats remain stable, with pork belly at 14.20 yuan, lean pork at 14.40 yuan, beef at 37.50 yuan, and lamb at 41.20 yuan, all consistent with the previous day's prices [1] Group 3: Egg Prices - The price of eggs is stable at 3.41 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices have seen a slight increase, with wholesale prices at 2.25 yuan, reflecting a 0.45% rise from the previous day, and a 3.43% increase in transaction volume at wholesale markets [1] Group 5: Seafood Prices - Seafood prices are generally stable, with average prices for various products such as hairtail at 15 yuan, mackerel at 10.33 yuan, and shrimp at 34 yuan, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]
商务预报:11月17日至23日食用农产品价格略有下降 生产资料价格略有上涨
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-28 07:02
Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.62 yuan per kilogram, down 0.9%, with specific declines in lettuce, broccoli, and spinach of 8.0%, 7.7%, and 3.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-feathered chickens decreasing by 1.1% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with watermelon, grapes, pears, and bananas rising by 4.0%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 4.1% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber increasing by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal and smokeless lump coal priced at 793 yuan and 1167 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices experienced slight increases, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and high-speed wire rod rising by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as compound fertilizer rose by 0.4% [2]
加拿大谷物委员会:截至11月23日当周加拿大油菜籽出口量为9.95万吨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 06:47
Core Insights - Canadian canola exports for the week ending November 23 amounted to 99,500 tons, a significant decrease from 284,600 tons in the previous week [1] - The commercial inventory of Canadian canola stood at 1.3743 million tons [1] - Cumulative canola exports for the current crop year reached 1.9284 million tons, representing a 47.8% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]
今年前10个月广西东兴口岸北仑河二桥货运量创新高
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-28 05:41
Core Insights - The cargo volume at Dongxing Port's Beilun River Second Bridge reached a record high in the first ten months of this year, with a total of 1.657 million tons, surpassing last year's total and marking a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1][2] - The total value of goods handled was 130.09 billion yuan, with imports at 552,000 tons (up 45.5%) and exports at 1.105 million tons (up 29%) [1] Group 1: Import and Export Performance - The import of agricultural products at Dongxing Port increased significantly, reaching 196,000 tons, a growth of 34.7% [1] - Notably, the import of aquatic products surged by 68.2% to 53,000 tons, while fruit imports rose by 18.9% to 118,000 tons [1] - The main export products were electromechanical products, totaling 62.41 billion yuan, accounting for 71.4% of the total export value [2] Group 2: Specific Product Insights - Exports of electronic components saw a remarkable increase of 1.9 times, reaching 13.4 billion yuan, while flat panel display modules and automatic data processing equipment also experienced significant growth [2] - The export of complete vehicles from Dongxing Port reached 1,019 units, with a total value of 400 million yuan, marking an increase of 1.8 times [2] - The total import and export value along the Western Land-Sea New Corridor through Dongxing Port was 50.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.4% [3]
大越期货豆粕早报-20251128
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the market focuses on China's soybean purchases. Domestic soybean meal is rising, but the demand improvement and spot price discount limit the rebound. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price, but the domestic soybean production increase restricts the upward movement [11]. - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, there are uncertainties in China's purchase quantity and US soybean weather. The domestic soybean meal market will return to range - bound fluctuations due to various factors such as the decline of soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and the high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant detailed content found 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market has returned to range - bound fluctuations due to factors like the decline in imported soybean arrivals in November, the decrease in hog farming profits, and high inventory in domestic oil mills [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal Longs**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has no pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Soybean Meal Shorts**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Soybean Longs**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Soybean Shorts**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China is increasing its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production restricts the price increase [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal in East China is - 55, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 99.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.89% and a year - on - year increase of 27.52% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The basis of domestic soybeans is - 6, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 747.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% and a year - on - year increase of 40.92% [11]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 - 2024, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, etc. [33][34] 5. Position Data - The main short positions in both soybean meal and soybeans have increased, and funds have flowed out [9][11] 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data - The report provides the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from November 19 - 27, 2025, as well as the price differences between them [17]. - It also shows the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from November 20 - 27, 2025 [19]. - The report presents the warehouse receipt statistics of soybeans and soybean meal from November 18 - 27, 2025 [21]. 7. Global Soybean Production Progress - The report provides the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the US (2024, 2025), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) [35][36][40] 8. USDA Supply - Demand Report - The report shows the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from April - November 2025, including data on planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory [46] 9. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from its high in November but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills remains high, while the inventory of soybean meal has decreased from its high [50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have increased from a low level, and the备货 demand has recovered [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - The hog inventory has been rising, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The hog price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large hogs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs has increased slightly. The domestic hog farming profit has decreased slightly [58][60][64]
农产品日报:现货价格上涨,豆粕偏强震荡-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:22
农产品日报 | 2025-11-28 现货价格上涨,豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3055元/吨,较前日变动+40元/吨,幅度+1.33%;菜粕2601合约2469元/吨,较前 日变动+30元/吨,幅度+1.23%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨,较前日变动+20元/吨,现货基差 M01+25,较前日变动-20;江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨,较前日变动+20元/吨,现货基差M01-55,较前日变动-20; 广东地区豆粕现货价格2990元/吨,较前日变动跌+20元/吨,现货基差M01-65,较前日变动-20。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2650元/吨,较前日变动+30元/吨,现货基差RM01+181,较前日变动+0。 近期市场资讯,外媒11月26日消息:作物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示,阿根廷2025/26年度大豆产量预计为4900 万吨,高于美国农业部最新预测的4850万吨。 市场分析 当前国内供应依旧较为宽松,大豆持续到港,油厂开机率虽有所上升,但库存消耗较为缓慢,依旧维持在百万吨 左右,未来预计仍将维持宽松预期。下游饲料企业仍以滚动补库为主。USD ...
油料日报:豆一稳势运行关注终端备货,花生产区强弱分化-20251128
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 05:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report Core Views - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract showed a slight increase. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast region is stable. Farmers' limited remaining grain and strong reluctance to sell support prices. However, the trading activity in the trade link is low, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract ended higher. The peanut market has regional strength - weakness differentiation. The Northeast region has high prices due to normal listing and good quality, while the Henan region faces price pressure from oil mills. High prices suppress consumption, and the supply in the Northeast has increased [4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4106.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [1] Spot - The spot basis of edible soybeans was A01 - 6, down 12 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in major markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2601 contract yesterday was 8186.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8210.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan/ton (-0.36%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK01 - 1186.00, up 10.00 (+0.85%) month - on - month. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The contract purchase price of oil - mill peanut kernels decreased steadily, and the arrival volume was average [3]
综合晨报-20251128
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]
商品日报20251128-20251128
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, and domestic industrial enterprise profits have declined. A - shares are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and the bond market still has bearish sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, alumina prices are expected to continue to be weak, casting aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range, lead prices are expected to stabilize and consolidate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strongly volatile, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash and glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure, coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [2][3][4][6][8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME copper closed at 10,930 dollars/ton, down 0.21% [30] - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 2,832 dollars/ton, down 1.13% [30] - SHFE zinc closed at 22,415 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; LME zinc closed at 3,022 dollars/ton, down 1.08% [30] - SHFE lead closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; LME lead closed at 1,984 dollars/ton, up 0.51% [30] - SHFE nickel closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; LME nickel closed at 14,840 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [30] - SHFE tin closed at 302,200 yuan/ton, up 2.14%; LME tin closed at 37,925 dollars/ton, down 0.43% [30] - COMEX gold closed at 4,189.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; SHFE silver closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44%; COMEX silver closed at 53.83 dollars/ounce, up 0.12% [30] - SHFE rebar closed at 3,093 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,293 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [30] - DCE iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; DCE coking coal closed at 1,071.0 yuan/ton, down 1.24%; DCE coke closed at 1,607.0 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [30] - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,115.0 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [30] - DCE soybean meal closed at 3,055.0 yuan/ton, up 1.33%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,469.0 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [30] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's closing price on November 27 was 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 from the previous day; LME copper's closing price was 10,930 dollars/ton, down 23. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, LME copper's inventory increased by 675 tons [31] - For nickel, SHFE nickel's closing price on November 27 was 116,900 yuan/ton, down 360 from the previous day; LME nickel's closing price was 14,840 dollars/ton, down 5. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 396 tons, LME nickel's inventory increased by 930 tons [31] - For zinc, SHFE zinc's closing price on November 27 was 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; LME zinc's closing price was 3,022 dollars/ton, down 33. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts decreased by 2,502 tons, LME zinc's inventory increased by 875 tons [34] - For lead, SHFE lead's closing price on November 27 was 16,955 yuan/ton, down 90 from the previous day; LME lead's closing price was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, down 8. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts decreased by 98 tons, LME lead's inventory increased by 400 tons [34] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's closing price on November 27 was 21,565 yuan/ton, up 30 from the previous day; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons, LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 675 tons [34] - For alumina, SHFE alumina's closing price on November 27 was 2,724 yuan/ton, up 4 from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina remained unchanged. SHFE alumina's warehouse inventory decreased by 604 tons [34] - For tin, SHFE tin's closing price on November 27 was 302,200 yuan/ton, up 6,320 from the previous day; LME tin's closing price was 37,925 dollars/ton, down 165. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts increased by 34 tons, LME tin's inventory remained unchanged [34] - For precious metals, there was no change in the prices of gold and silver in various markets on November 27 compared with the previous day. The gold - to - silver ratio in SHFE decreased by 1.81, and the gold - to - silver ratio in COMEX decreased by 0.22 [34] - For other varieties, data such as prices, warehouse receipts, and inventories of rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal on November 27 and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [36]
《农产品》日报-20251128
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 02:25
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the end of the month approaches, the market focuses on export and production data, with potential downside risks. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and could break through the 8,600 yuan resistance [1]. - Soybean oil: Chinese purchases of US soybeans boost CBOT soybeans, but domestic supply is ample and demand is weak, with inventory likely to increase and prices unable to rise in the short term [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply is accelerating, and although southwest curing has started, demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, and the strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be continued [3]. Meal Products - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. With the one - price rising with the market and the basis slightly falling, the market is unlikely to see a continuous upward trend, and there is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market remains firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, limiting price increases. Attention should be paid to the pace of corn supply and market sentiment [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to consolidate around 14 cents per pound. With new sugar from Guangxi on the market, the market is expected to remain weak and bottom - oscillating this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures were closed for the US Thanksgiving holiday. Domestically, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season creates hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support prices, so short - term prices may oscillate within a range [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and with reduced inventory at all levels and recovering demand, futures prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. Key Points by Product Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On November 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,560 yuan, up 1.18% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,224 yuan, up 0.91%; the basis of Y2601 was 336 yuan, up 8.39%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 34.03% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8,558 yuan, up 1.04%; the basis of P2601 was - 138 yuan, up 8.00%; the import profit in Guangzhou Port in January increased by 14.08% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10,110 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of OI601 was 9,772 yuan, down 0.48%; the basis of OI601 was 338 yuan, up 16.15% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%; the price of LH2605 was 11,990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11,585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot**: Prices in various regions showed mixed trends, with slaughter volume increasing by 0.47% daily, and most breeding profits decreasing [3]. Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,030 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 3,055 yuan, up 1.33%; the basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,470 yuan, up 1.23%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,469 yuan, up 1.23%; the basis of RM2601 was unchanged [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan, up 0.36%; the basis decreased by 14.55%; the import profit increased by 0.93%; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 32.43% [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2,572 yuan, up 0.82%; the basis decreased by 53.85%; the starch - corn 01 spread increased by 4.11% [7]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of SR2601 was 5,403 yuan, up 0.45%; the price of SR2605 was 5,322 yuan, up 0.30%; ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% [11]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan, unchanged; the basis decreased; the import volume increased by 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of CF2605 was 13,605 yuan, up 0.15%; the price of CF2601 was 13,640 yuan, up 0.11%; ICE US cotton rose 0.59% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B grade cotton rose 0.69%; the commercial inventory increased by 24.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of JD12 was 2,947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%; the price of JD01 was 3,282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price rose 1.20%; the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%; the breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [15].