Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the deepening of financial system reforms and the construction of a financial powerhouse, with a focus on stable development in capital markets and high-level openness in the foreign exchange sector [1] Financial System Reform - A scientific and robust monetary policy framework is being established, alongside a macro-prudential policy framework and mechanisms for systemic financial risk prevention and resolution [2] - Significant progress has been made in risk prevention and resolution, with over 3,600 illegal shareholders being cleared out and more than 200 companies smoothly delisted during the "14th Five-Year" period [4][8] Support for the Real Economy - Financial support for the real economy has been strengthened, with a reduction in the number of financing platforms by over 60% and a decrease in financial debt scale by over 5% compared to the beginning of 2023 [6] - Infrastructure loan balances reached 54.5 trillion yuan, a 62% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [14] Capital Market Development - By the end of August 2023, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [8] - The introduction of policies such as "Science and Technology Innovation Board" and "M&A regulations" aims to enhance marketization and internationalization [8] Foreign Exchange Market - The foreign exchange market has shown stable operation, with cross-border receipts and payments expected to reach 14 trillion USD in 2024, a 64% increase from 2020 [10] - The proportion of the renminbi in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30% [10] Financial Regulation - The bond default rate in the exchange market remains low at around 1%, and about 7,000 zombie institutions have been rectified [12] - A comprehensive regulatory system is being established to prevent fraud and improve rules related to share reduction and quantitative trading [12] High-Level Financial Openness - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits [20] - The renminbi has become the largest settlement currency for China's external receipts and payments, ranking among the top three trade financing and payment currencies globally [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity signals to determine equity allocation levels[41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns signal strengths to economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions - Economic growth signal: 100% - Monetary liquidity signal: 50% 2. Equity allocation recommendation is derived based on these signals, with September's recommended equity position at 75% 3. Historical performance: From early 2025 to date, the strategy achieved a return of 11.75%, compared to Wind All A's return of 22.98%[41][42] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced view of macroeconomic and liquidity conditions, offering actionable insights for equity allocation[41][42] - **Model Name**: Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies style rotation opportunities between small-cap stocks and large-cap stocks (represented by the "茅指数")[19][20][22] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Relative net value comparison: Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value is compared to its 243-day moving average - If above the moving average, small-cap stocks are preferred; otherwise, 茅指数 is recommended 2. 20-day closing price slope analysis: - Positive slope indicates preference for the respective index - Current slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%) vs 茅指数 (0.24%) 3. Risk control indicators: - Volatility crowding degree (-35.58%) - 10-year government bond yield (-8.12%) - Both indicators are below risk thresholds (55% and 30%, respectively)[19][20][22] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures style rotation signals and provides risk control measures for small-cap stock investments[19][20][22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Stock Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools (All A-shares, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000)[45][53][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Factors include: - **Value**: Metrics like SP_TTM (past 12-month revenue/latest market value) - **Growth**: Metrics like OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y (quarterly operating income YoY growth) - **Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM (future 12-month expected net profit/shareholder equity average) - **Technical**: Metrics like Skewness_240D (240-day return skewness) - **Volatility**: Metrics like IV_CAPM (CAPM residual volatility)[53][55] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Quality factors performed well last week, while others showed mixed results across stock pools[45][53][55] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides comprehensive insights into factor performance across different market segments, aiding in stock selection[45][53][55] - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Factor Construction Idea**: Convertible bond factors are derived from the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks[50][53] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Key factors include: - **Stock Consensus Expectation**: Predictive metrics for underlying stocks - **Stock Financial Quality**: Metrics like ROE_FTTM - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: Metrics like parity and bottom price premium rate[50][53] 2. Weekly tracking of IC mean values and multi-long-short portfolio returns - Positive IC mean values observed for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53] **Factor Evaluation**: Offers robust predictive insights for convertible bond selection based on stock-related metrics[50][53] --- Backtesting Results Models - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Return: 11.75% (2025 YTD) - Benchmark (Wind All A): 22.98%[41][42] - **Rotation Model for Small-Cap Stocks**: - Small-cap stocks/茅指数 relative net value: 1.88 (above 243-day moving average of 1.62) - 20-day closing price slopes: Small-cap stocks (-0.08%), 茅指数 (0.24%)[19][20][22] Factors - **Stock Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Quality factors performed best last week[45][53][55] - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - IC mean values: Positive for stock consensus expectation, financial quality, stock value, and convertible bond valuation factors[50][53]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market has undergone significant transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on legal construction, market system improvement, and risk prevention to enhance its role in supporting the real economy and national strategy [1] Institutional Reconstruction and Market System Improvement - Breakthroughs in legal construction have been achieved, with the implementation of the new Securities Law and the introduction of over 60 supporting rules following the release of the new "National Nine Articles" [4] - The market system has become more multi-layered and comprehensive, with the establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange and ongoing reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market [4] - As of August this year, the total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4] Market Function Optimization - Over the past five years, the financing scale of the exchange market reached 57.5 trillion yuan, with the proportion of direct financing rising to 31.6%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The ability of the capital market to support technological innovation has significantly improved, with over 90% of newly listed companies being technology firms [5] Risk Prevention and Regulatory Enforcement - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased to 15.9%, down 2.8 percentage points from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating enhanced market resilience [6][7] - The bond default rate has remained low at around 1%, and significant progress has been made in cleaning up the private equity fund sector [7] - Regulatory enforcement has intensified, with 2,214 administrative penalties issued over five years, resulting in a total fine of 41.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 58% increase in the number of penalties [7] Investor Protection System Improvement - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has improved rules related to share reduction, quantitative trading, and margin trading, enhancing investor protection mechanisms [8] - Notable cases have resulted in over 3.8 billion yuan in compensation to investors, significantly improving the quality of investor rights protection [8] Balancing Reform and Opening - Achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" are characterized by profound institutional and structural changes, transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement in the capital market [9] - Future challenges include enhancing institutional inclusiveness, attracting long-term capital, and improving the quality of listed companies [9] - The path for market development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, increasing the entry of long-term capital, and enhancing regulatory precision [9]

Core Points - Huatai Securities announced the completion of the cancellation of 438,495 A-shares, which will reduce its registered capital [1] - The registered capital has been changed from RMB 902,730.2281 million to RMB 902,686.3786 million following the cancellation [1] - The company has completed the necessary business registration changes and obtained a new business license from the Jiangsu Provincial Market Supervision Administration [1] Summary by Categories - **Announcements**: The company referenced several upcoming announcements and meetings scheduled for 2025, including shareholder meetings and voting results [1] - **Capital Reduction**: The cancellation of A-shares is part of a broader strategy to reduce registered capital, with specific figures provided for the previous and new registered capital amounts [1] - **Regulatory Compliance**: The company has successfully completed the required regulatory processes to update its business license following the capital reduction [1]

本文字数：1706，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 2025.09. 22 今年以来，伴随港股赚钱效应持续发酵，跨境互联网券商违规发展内地新客户的乱象关注度上升。据 记者了解，从整改过程来看，富途证券、老虎证券对中国内地居民开户条件的设置是逐步收紧的，核 心要求从其他海外券商存量开户证明收紧到境外工作或生活证明，再到近期的全面关闭。 此前第一财经曾报道，应中国政府相关要求，全球最大互联网券商盈透证券（Interactice Brokers）自8月起也逐步收紧了对中国内地居民的开户通道，公司APP已在境内各应用商店下架。 另一家海外券商长桥证券也在6月宣布全面停止中国大陆境内用户通过存量证明方式的开户形式， APP也无法搜索和下载。（ 详见报道《全球最大互联网券商收紧内地居民开户条件，炒港美股避 税"攻略"失灵》 ） 跨境互联网券商富途证券、老虎证券进一步关闭了中国内地居民的开户通道。 9月22日，第一财经记者了解到，根据最新监管要求，富途证券开户条件有所变更， 目前中国内地 客户开户需持有海外永居身份证明。 富途牛牛客服强调，现在公司正在进行系统升级， 现阶段仅支 持有中国香港或澳门身份证的客户 ...

五年来，银行业保险业通过信贷、债券、股权等多元方式，为实体经济注入新增资金达170万亿元。 金融圈的目光再次聚焦！ 9月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清将齐聚"高质量完 成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍过去5年金融业的发展成就。 尽管这是一场关于"十四五"规划完成情况的发布会，但市场的期待值已被拉满。从时间线来看，距离去 年9月24日的重磅新政即将满一周年，市场热切期盼着是否还会有利好政策出台。回顾去年，9月17日美 联储宣布降息后，9月24日的发布会便推出一系列利好。今年9月18日，美联储刚宣布降息25bps，这无 疑让大家对此次发布会充满遐想。 虽然投资者们期待着能有短期刺激政策出台，助力市场再掀波澜。但发布会刚刚开始，央行行长潘功胜 就明确表示，"今天新闻发布会的主题是介绍'十四五'时期金融业发展成就，主要是从中长期视角回顾 和总结，不涉及短期政策的调整。关于'十五五'及下一步金融改革内容，将在中央统一部署后与大家进 一步沟通。" 梳理整场发布会内容来看，四大金融主管部门谈到了金融体制改革、金融服务实体经济质效、金融业对 外开放、防范化解金融风险等几个 ...

★ 宏观动态 ★ 中国海军三型舰载机在福建舰成功完成起降训练 据央视新闻，记者22日从海军有关部门获悉，在纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会上 受阅的歼-15T、歼-35和空警-600三型舰载机，已于此前成功完成在福建舰上的首次弹射起飞和着舰训练。这 是我国航母发展历程中取得的又一次突破，标志着福建舰具备了电磁弹射和回收能力，对推进海军转型建设具 有里程碑意义。 深圳机场自9月23日20时起暂停航班运行 根据台风"桦加沙"影响评估，预计9月23日夜间至24日白天为台风对深圳机场运行影响最强时段。为确保航班 运行和旅客出行安全，深圳机场将于9月23日20时起暂停航班运行，恢复运行时间将根据台风动态和影响情况 而定。 8月中国游戏市场实际销售收入292.63亿元，同比下降13.01% 中国音数协游戏工委发布2025年8月中国游戏产业月度报告，8月中国游戏市场实际销售收入为292.63亿元，虽 然环比增长0.61%，但同比下降了13.01%。这一下滑并非由单一原因造成，而是"用户消费行为转变"与"行业产 品迭代断档"共同作用的结果。核心原因在于去年同期的收入基数被现象级产品《黑神话：悟空》推至高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, reaching historical highs, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][5][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 22, gold prices rose sharply, with spot gold reaching $3720 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1% and a cumulative increase of over 12% since August 20 [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by more than 42%, with both spot gold and COMEX gold futures showing similar gains [3]. - Following the recent price surge, gold-related stocks in both U.S. and A-share markets experienced significant gains, with several companies seeing increases of over 3% to 9% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, which is expected to support higher gold prices [5][7]. - Market expectations suggest that there may be additional rate cuts in the near future, with probabilities of further cuts in October and December being 91.9% and 78.6%, respectively [7]. Group 3: Institutional Predictions - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and UBS, have raised their gold price forecasts, predicting that gold could reach $3800 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceed $4000 per ounce in early 2026 [6][8]. - JPMorgan's analysis indicates that gold prices typically rise during and after Fed rate cut cycles, with historical data showing double-digit returns within nine months of rate cuts [5][6]. Group 4: Market Drivers - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. economic policies are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7][9]. - The trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves is also a significant factor supporting gold prices, as they remain less sensitive to price fluctuations [8][9].

Group 1 - Huatai Securities (600909.SH) closed at 6.18 yuan, with a decline of 0.16% [2] - Caitong Securities (601108.SH) closed at 8.24 yuan, with a decline of 0.12% [2] - The securities sector experienced an overall increase of 1.03%, with Huatai Securities and Caitong Securities being the only two companies in the sector that declined [2]