Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 with a 5.04% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.63 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.3 percentage points. However, from the beginning of 2025, the index has risen by 10.44%, outperforming both major indices [2][17] - In 2024, the machinery industry's operating revenue reached CNY 19,995.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to CNY 863.64 billion. In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 11.23% to CNY 4,540.09 billion, but net profit saw a significant decline of 30.03% [2][20][24] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery sector's performance in 2024 was below expectations, but it has shown strong recovery in 2025, leading the market [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and new quality productivity for future investments [4][41] Sector Performance - The internal segmentation of the machinery industry shows significant disparities, with semiconductor equipment and motorcycle segments leading in revenue growth [3][35] - In Q1 2025, the highest revenue growth was observed in semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%) [37] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to boost engineering machinery sales, with significant government bond issuance planned [5][44] - It highlights the focus on new quality productivity, particularly in low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][49] Emerging Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government support, with projections indicating substantial growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL markets by 2035 [7][50] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil and gas extraction [8][52] - Humanoid robots are positioned to address customization challenges in manufacturing, supported by government initiatives to expand application scenarios [9][53] - Industrial mother machines are essential for cost reduction in mass production, with a growing market for core components [10][54]

工程机械 行业持续回暖，4月挖掘机销量同比增长17.6%。 据中国工程机械工业协会统计，2025年4月，挖掘机主要制造企业共销售挖掘机22142台，同比增长 17.6%。其中国内销量12547台，同比增长16.4%；出口量9595台，同比增长19.3%。销售电动挖掘机25 台。 2025年前4个月，挖掘机主要制造企业共销售挖掘机83514台，同比增长21.4%；其中国内销量49109台， 同比增长31.9%；出口34405台，同比增长9.02%。 4月，挖掘机国内销量增速放缓，同比增幅较上月收窄了12.1个百分点；出口量大幅增长，同比增幅创2023 年5月以来新高，较上月扩大了16.43个百分点。 当月，反映 工程建设 热度的工程机械开工时长同比增长。 据中国工程机械工业协会统计，4月，工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为90.1小时，同比增长3.2%；月开 工率为62%，同比下降4.29个百分点。 挖掘机被视为反映国民经济的"晴雨表"，其景气度主要受下游房地产、基建、出口等需求变化以及自身设备 更新周期等因素影响。今年以来，挖掘机销量的持续回升，释放出中国工程机械行业逐渐复苏、内需反弹的积 极信号。 基建方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global engineering machinery industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards low-carbon and intelligent upgrades, driven by the continuous promotion of "dual carbon" goals and the widespread application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and large models [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2025 New Energy Construction Machinery Conference will be held from June 17 to 19, 2025, in Yantai, focusing on "Green Transformation and Intelligent Upgrade" [3]. - The conference aims to gather global leaders in the engineering machinery industry to discuss policies and innovative technologies related to new energy and digital intelligence, analyze market demands and development trends, and promote high-quality development of the new energy engineering machinery industry [1][3]. Group 2: Conference Content - Key topics to be discussed include the current status and trends of green intelligent products in engineering machinery, energy transformation directions, typical application scenarios of green intelligent engineering machinery, and the adaptation of core components like "three electrics" to the electrification of engineering machinery [4]. - The conference will also address the transformation paths for traditional component suppliers and solutions for electrifying existing equipment, as well as the global standards and requirements for green intelligent earth-moving machinery [4]. Group 3: Conference Organization - The conference is organized by Tianjin Engineering Machinery Research Institute Co., Ltd., and hosted by Yantai Aidi Precision Machinery Co., Ltd., with support from the "Engineering Machinery" magazine [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 with a 5.04% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.63 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.3 percentage points. However, from the beginning of 2025, the index has risen by 10.44%, outperforming both major indices [2][17] - In 2024, the machinery industry's operating revenue reached CNY 19,995.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to CNY 863.64 billion. In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 11.23% to CNY 4,540.09 billion, but net profit saw a significant decline of 30.03% [2][20][26] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery sector's performance in 2024 was below expectations, but it has shown strong recovery in 2025, leading the market [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and new quality productivity to drive growth [4][41] Sector Performance - The internal segmentation of the machinery industry shows significant disparities, with semiconductor equipment (39.08%), photovoltaic processing equipment (29.60%), and motorcycles (17.85%) leading in revenue growth for 2024. In Q1 2025, semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%) continued to show strong growth [3][39] - The report highlights that the machinery sector's public fund allocation increased from 2.79% in 2024 to 3.27% in Q1 2025 [30] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to boost engineering machinery sales, with significant government bond issuance planned for infrastructure projects [5][44] - It also suggests continuous attention to new quality productivity sectors, including low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][49] Emerging Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government support, with projections indicating substantial growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035 [7][50] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil and gas extraction [8][52] - Humanoid robots are positioned to address customization challenges in manufacturing, supported by government initiatives to expand application scenarios [9][53] - Industrial mother machines are identified as essential for reducing costs in mass production, with a growing market for core components [10][54]

2025年5月13日，资本市场迎来新一轮"真金白银"托底行动。数据显示，自4月以来，A股市场已有超300家上市公司密 集披露股票回购增持计划，涉及金额上限突破1000亿元，形成近年来最大规模的市值管理浪潮。参与主体呈现多元化特 征，既涵盖三一重工、美的集团等民营龙头企业，也包括中国石油、中国中铁等央企巨头，更有中国诚通、中国国新两 大国有资本运营平台宣布动用专项贷款资金，加大对所投上市公司的增持力度。 政策组合拳激活市场动能 本轮回购增持潮的加速推进，与监管层密集出台的支持政策密切相关。5月7日，中国人民银行在国新办新闻发布会上宣 布，将证券、基金、保险公司互换便利5000亿元额度与股票回购增持再贷款3000亿元额度合并使用，形成8000亿元级政 策工具包，同时将各类专项结构性货币政策工具利率下调0.25个百分点至1.5%。这一调整直接降低资金使用成本，为上 市公司及主要股东提供低成本增持弹药。 据披露，截至4月末，上市公司拟申请股票回购增持贷款金额已超1100亿元，金融机构实际签订贷款合同规模达2000亿 元，资金供给充沛。值得注意的是，当前金融机构发放的股票回购增持贷款利率约为2%，显著低于A股上市公司平 ...

"即便关税在当下具有一定的影响，也会在经过两个季度的自我消化逐步减弱，因此我们判断四季度将出现不错的投资机会。投 资方向上，我们认为成长股将有更为明显的机会。"在梁辉看来，目前股市的估值具有较强的吸引力，即使考虑到短期的不确定 性，最不确定的阶段已经过去，当下来看一些公司是具有明显的长期价值。 21世纪经济报道 黎雨辰 北京报道 5月13日，由21世纪经济报道主办的"财富·中国行"活动"共话共启·机构视野·投资新局——全球秩序裂变与机构资产配置研讨 会"北京站顺利落下帷幕。研讨会共汇聚了60余位来自私募、公募、券商、保险、智库及媒体行业代表。 其中，相聚资本总经理梁辉在会议主题演讲中，分享了新环境下成长股投资的机遇与挑战。 相聚资本总经理 梁辉 具体来看，梁辉认为中美会谈结果较市场预期更为乐观。从双方的经济发展路径来看，美国制造业是其弱点，股市和通胀是其 约束条件，中国的制造业产业链优势则很强。美国的目的是实现贸易逆差的平衡和制造业的回流，根据经济学中基本原理，社 会分工有利于经济发展，从而导致贸易逆差，因此美国并不能百分之百实现其目标，更为现实的目标，是缩减部分贸易逆差， 同时也可能会有部分制造业回流。 梁 ...

Group 1 - The "Brand Story Conference 2025" in Changsha aims to enhance consumer confidence by promoting a quality-centric brand growth mechanism among enterprises [1] - Changsha integrates brand building into its "Quality Strong City" strategy, with five award-winning companies in the global engineering machinery top 50 and a total industrial output exceeding 220 billion in 2023 [2] - The city has cultivated 1,017 brands across various sectors, supported by quality diagnostic services that have resolved over 5,200 quality issues for enterprises [2] Group 2 - The cultural and tourism sectors in Changsha are also focused on quality, with 11 national cultural brands and 71 provincial brands contributing to the steady growth of the tourism industry [3] - The emphasis on quality in brand storytelling is significantly boosting consumer confidence and revitalizing the consumption market in Changsha [3]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年 6 月 A500、沪深 300、中证 500 指数调整预测及指数效应 分析 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Summary] ► 预计 A500 指数将有 27 只成份股调整 中证 A500 指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的 500 只证券作为指数样本，选股过程中考虑市值规模、行业代 表性、与样本空间行业权重分布一致性等因素。 根据预测，本期将有 27 只成份股调整，柳工、湖南黄金 等股票可能进入中证 A500 指数。 ► 预计沪深 300 指数将有 7 只成份股调整 沪深 300 指数从日均成交金额排名前 50%的股票中选取日 均总市值排名前 300 名的股票构成指数样本。 根据预测，本期将有 7 只成份股调整，国货航、中航成 飞等股票可能进入沪深 300 指数。 我们计算了沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指的 调整成份股在定期调整样本生效日前后的股价表现，以评估 指数效应的分布情况。 从历史平均情况来看，部分指数在样本生效日前后的指 数效应较为明显。 风险提示 本报告根 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the Chinese industrial sector, indicating a balanced outlook on investment opportunities within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in emerging industries in China that possess structural competitive advantages, particularly in the context of challenges such as debt, deflation, demographic changes, and global multipolarity [3][8]. - It identifies significant opportunities in advanced supply chains and manufacturing, highlighting the potential for growth in sectors such as machinery, automotive, new energy, semiconductors, aerospace, artificial intelligence, software, pharmaceuticals, humanoid robotics, and eVTOL [4][30]. - The report outlines a framework consisting of six key elements that support industry upgrades, which include R&D investment, talent development, capital influx, government policy support, market demand, and supply chain robustness [31][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the Chinese industrial sector as "In-Line," suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on investment prospects [10]. Key Industry Opportunities - The report identifies 28 stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial upgrades and emerging trends in China, focusing on companies that are either upstream in the supply chain or are key enablers in sectors like automation and AI [4][42]. Six Key Elements Framework 1. **R&D Investment**: China’s R&D expenditure is primarily concentrated in manufacturing, with a notable increase in investment in technology and emerging industries [15][31]. 2. **Talent Pool**: China produces the largest number of engineering graduates globally, with a focus on strategic emerging fields such as AI and data science [31][32]. 3. **Capital Influx**: Significant capital has flowed into advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly semiconductors and machinery, with a total of approximately RMB 20 trillion from 2021 to 2024 [32][33]. 4. **Government Support**: The Chinese government has implemented various strategic initiatives to support key industries, including AI, semiconductors, and aerospace, enhancing the investment landscape [33][34]. 5. **Market Demand**: The report highlights a positive feedback loop between rising demand and innovation, particularly in consumer electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery [34]. 6. **Supply Chain Development**: The report discusses the importance of moving up the value chain, particularly in sectors with low localization rates and strong downstream demand [34][35]. Emerging Industry Focus - The report underscores the potential of artificial intelligence to drive significant economic value in China, projecting that AI could contribute RMB 11 trillion to the labor value by 2035, representing 5.5% of nominal GDP [37][38]. - It also notes the expected growth in sectors such as autonomous vehicles and industrial AI applications, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and operational efficiency across various industries [39].

Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, 2025, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][9][10] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, with a framework agreement expected to be reached within the year, particularly as the midterm elections approach [1][9][10] - The trade conflict has resulted in a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit for March, with consumer goods imports hitting a record high, indicating a pressing need for tariff reductions from the US side [1][9][10] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bonds issued for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate investments in the first four months of 2025 [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in China's global market share in high-tech manufacturing [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of building a robust technological infrastructure to enhance competitiveness and drive domestic demand, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainties [11][13] Company Recommendations - Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288) is projected to maintain steady growth with revenue expectations of 29.7 billion, 32.8 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [8] - Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is expected to see a net profit of 2.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - UBTECH (09880.HK) has signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is anticipated to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in real-world scenarios, with revenue forecasts of 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8]