Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with significant increases in precious metals and base metals, while some contracts like polysilicon and lithium carbonate declined. In the stock index futures market, some contracts rose and some fell, and in the bond futures market, most contracts showed slight increases. Considering geopolitical situations, weather impacts, and supply - demand relationships, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly, and various chemical products will also show different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of January 29, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with沪银up over 8%,沪金nearly 8% up, and international copper over 7% up. In terms of declines, polysilicon dropped over 4% and lithium carbonate over 3%. In the stock index futures market, IF rose 1.00%, IH rose 1.88%, IC fell 1.14%, and IM fell 0.52%. In the bond futures market, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.09%. As of 15:18 on January 29, funds flowed into contracts such as中证1000 2603 and沪铜2603, and flowed out of沪铝2603 and碳酸锂2605 [6][7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Each Variety 3.2.1. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Although it is the off - season for oil demand, due to winter storms, U.S. crude inventories decreased more than expected. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026, and cold weather pushed up diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating oil storage is high, and the supply is still in excess. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Iran, and the geopolitical risk is rising. Considering these factors, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8%, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream operating rates mostly declined, and the national shipments increased slightly. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly. Venezuelan heavy crude supply is restricted, and some refineries in Shandong stopped production. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse - arbitrage [11]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of January 23, the PP downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate was about 79%. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. Due to the rise in crude oil prices and improved market sentiment, PP will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [12][15]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On January 29, the plastic operating rate was about 89%. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Plastic will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [13][15]. 3.2.5. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The export orders increased significantly, but the inventory pressure is still large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. PVC has insufficient upward momentum in the short term [16]. 3.2.6. Urea - Today, urea prices opened low and closed high. The spot price continued to rise, and some factories stopped selling. In early February, there will be gas - head plants resuming production, and the output is sufficient. Agricultural dealers are taking goods actively, but the compound fertilizer factory operating rate has decreased. The inventory is slightly decreasing. The overall fundamentals are supportive, but a callback should be watched out for [17][18].

周四市场呈现红绿盘震荡的格局，投资者可以看到，早盘沪指高开4点于4155点，创业板低开1点于3322 点，开盘以后有色、石油板块急速跳水翻绿，带领指数快速回落，两市仅900多股上涨，之后跳水翻绿 最低4138点后回稳，盘面指数红绿盘震荡，盘尾冲高确认4170点反压以后遇阻，白酒板块涨停潮，但两 市个股跌多涨少，各大指数涨跌很小！最终沪指收涨10点于4162点，创业板收跌5点于3318点！那么对 于这种行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day due to increased military threats from the U.S. against Iran, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures rose approximately 2.7%, reaching over $70 per barrel, while WTI crude futures exceeded $65 per barrel [1]. - As of the latest update, Brent crude futures were up 1.89% at $69.69 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increased by 1.27% to $64.48 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - President Trump issued a "last ultimatum" to Iran, indicating a potential military strike, which has heightened geopolitical risks and contributed to the rise in oil prices [2]. - Iran has responded strongly, stating that any military action from the U.S. would be considered the start of a war [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The recent threats from Trump have injected a risk premium into oil prices, with traders seeking to hedge against potential U.S.-Iran conflict [3]. - Call options have been priced higher than put options for approximately 14 months, indicating a sustained concern over geopolitical risks [3]. - Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in crude oil to the highest level since August of the previous year, reflecting growing confidence in rising oil prices despite earlier expectations of oversupply [6]. Group 4: Supply Chain Risks - The potential for U.S. military action against Iran could threaten oil supplies from the Middle East, which accounts for about one-third of global oil supply [6]. - The probability of significant disruptions in energy flows in the Gulf region due to Iranian retaliation has been raised from 15% to 20% by energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group [6].

Core Insights - The "Yuegou Yangzhou · New Year Goods" promotional event successfully concluded, generating nearly 8 million yuan in sales over five days, significantly boosting consumer activity in Yangzhou during the Spring Festival [1][3][9] Group 1: Event Overview - The event featured nearly 160 merchants and over 2,000 unique products, creating a diverse shopping experience that included traditional goods, local delicacies, and cultural experiences [1][3] - The event was part of Yangzhou's broader "Come to Yangzhou · Celebrate the New Year · Prosperity" campaign aimed at enhancing consumer engagement during the festive season [1][9] Group 2: Sales Performance - The total sales during the event reached approximately 8 million yuan, with a notable increase in consumer participation and enthusiasm [3][9] - A significant highlight was the recharge area by Sinopec, which attracted over 1.8 million yuan in recharge transactions, showcasing the diverse spending habits of consumers [3] Group 3: Product Highlights - The event showcased a variety of local specialties, including Yangzhou's famous hairy crabs, geese, and various agricultural products, which were well-received by attendees [6][9] - Popular items included traditional snacks and innovative food products, with some brands reporting high sales volumes, such as over 500 chickens sold in a single day [3][6] Group 4: Consumer Engagement Strategies - The event integrated online and offline shopping experiences, with live streaming and promotional discounts enhancing consumer engagement [8][9] - Various promotional activities, such as trade-in subsidies for automobiles and home appliances, were implemented to encourage larger purchases [5][9] Group 5: Cultural Integration - The "I Am Chef" culinary competition featured 27 local delicacies, allowing consumers to experience Yangzhou's rich culinary heritage while shopping [9] - The event successfully combined traditional and modern elements, enriching the festive atmosphere and stimulating the local economy [9]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures have reached $65 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025, while Brent crude oil's March contract has surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time since September, amid concerns of a potential U.S. attack on Iran [1] Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.83% to touch $65 per barrel [1] - This price level is the highest since September 2025 [1] - Brent crude oil's March contract has risen above $70 per barrel for the first time since September [1] Group 2 - Market concerns are growing regarding a possible U.S. military action against Iran [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcements is the progress of state-owned share transfer and the acquisition of 100% equity of Yingda Futures by China Petroleum Capital Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - China Petroleum Group, the controlling shareholder of China Petroleum Capital, signed a share transfer agreement with State Grid Yingda Group on December 26, 2025, to transfer 379,262,372 A-shares, representing 3.00% of the total share capital, to State Grid Yingda Group [1] - The share transfer has received approval from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [1] Group 3 - China Petroleum Capital plans to acquire 100% equity of Yingda Futures from Yingda Securities Co., Ltd. for a price of RMB 1,129,286,232.00 [1] - The qualification of China Petroleum Capital as the controlling shareholder of Yingda Futures is subject to approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating uncertainty regarding the successful implementation of the transaction [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant market activity on January 29, with 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 35 stocks hitting the limit down [1] - The liquor sector was notably active, with stocks like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu reaching the limit up [1] - Precious metals showed strength, with Silver Nonferrous achieving 8 consecutive limit ups, Zhaojin Gold reaching 7 limit ups in 9 days, and Western Gold achieving 4 limit ups in 7 days [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector also saw gains, with stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Guyue Longshan hitting the limit up [1] - Among the continuous limit up stocks, Tiandi Online achieved 5 limit ups in 9 days, and Intercontinental Oil and Yu Guang Jin Lead both reached 5 limit ups [1] - Conversely, *ST Aowei faced a continuous decline with 15 consecutive limit downs, while *ST Wan Fang and *ST Dongjing experienced 13 and 3 consecutive limit downs, respectively [1]

中信期货 36 33 1300 30 1250 27 24 1200 21 1150 18 1100 15 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国原油产量(万桶/日) 2023 2024 2022 2025 =2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：正信期货 付馨苇 F03101045 Z0022192 国际油价本轮反弹是 "极端天气触发" 和 "供应脆弱性暴露" 共同作用的结果，而寒潮和地缘紧张两者共 振驱动的行情在历年冬季都频繁出现，倘若配合上商业原油去库，则反弹幅度更大。 欧美地区的寒潮季多集中在每年的12月至次年2月之间。在寒潮真正到来前，炼厂通常会提前备货以应 对上升的取暖需求，同时随着成品油消耗量的增加，美国原油及石油总库存（不含战略储备）可能会季 节性下降。与此同时，极寒天气也可能直接影响原油供应。例如，过去曾出现过因严寒导致油田设备冻 结、生产中断或电力故障，进而使原油产量下滑的情况。今年同一剧本再度被演绎，一月中旬欧洲寒潮 降临后，最近一周美国寒潮如期而至，而寒潮对这两个地区油价的影响逻辑却不尽相同。欧洲并非原油 生产和输出国，而是石油消费国，因此寒潮更多从需求端的爆发来提振油气价格。而美国寒潮则是影响 了能源基础设施的开工以及令电网承压，据分析师和交易商估计，美国石油生产商在上周末损失的产量 最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。 而复盘本轮原油熊市周期过 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong rebound in Brent crude oil prices from around $60 to above $65, driven by increasing geopolitical uncertainties and short-term supply concerns [1] - Recent geopolitical risks, particularly related to Iran and Kazakhstan, have heightened market sentiment, leading to increased buying activity in oil [1] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to create market disruptions, contributing to the volatility in oil prices [1] Group 2 - Supply-side factors include a significant reduction in U.S. crude oil production by up to 2 million barrels per day due to extreme cold weather, particularly affecting the Permian Basin [1] - The article suggests that current oil trading may focus more on the premium arising from supply vulnerabilities, while medium to long-term outlook indicates potential price recovery due to geopolitical disturbances [1] - The oil and gas industry is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, with indications of a potential supercycle in commodities this year, attracting funds towards oil sectors [1]