Report Title - The report is titled "Thermal Coal: Supply and Demand Tend to Weaken, Coal Prices Rise Slightly" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply and demand of thermal coal tend to weaken, and coal prices rise slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and subsequent market supply - demand changes need to be closely monitored [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - **产地价格**：大同南郊动力煤Q5500为568元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；鄂尔多斯伊金霍勒旗电煤Q5500为531元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降39元/吨；榆林烟煤末Q6000为595元/吨，环比涨3元/吨，同比降58元/吨 [2] - **港口价格**：秦港山西产Q5500为607元/吨，环比涨5元/吨，同比降63元/吨；秦港山西产Q5000为525元/吨，环比涨2元/吨，同比降56元/吨；秦港山西产Q4500为750元/吨，环比涨1元/吨，同比降60元/吨 [2] - **海外价格**：印尼FOB Q3800为49.5美元/吨，环比持平，同比降0.5美元/吨；澳大利亚FOB Q5500为74.6美元/吨，环比持平，同比降4.4美元/吨 [2] - **1月长协价格**：港口Q5500为684元/吨，环比降10元/吨，同比降9元/吨；山西Q5500为540元/吨，环比降8元/吨；陕西Q5500为483元/吨，环比降13元/吨；蒙西Q5500为453元/吨，环比降7元/吨 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **期货研究** - 1月28日港口市场价格坚挺，上游报价小幅探涨，下游询盘少、接受度不高，成交价格重心提升慢。煤矿价格上涨、港口发运倒挂、电厂日耗高位支撑上游挺价，但下游需求未明显改善，预计价格上涨空间有限。产地动力煤市场稳中偏强，部分煤矿停产致供应收紧，终端及站台刚需补库，大集团和港口价格上扬带动贸易商拉运情绪，推动价格上行 [3] - 2025年12月全国原煤产量环比增2.40%，同比降1.0%，是2025年7月以来连续第六个月同比下降，但环比连续第二个月增长。12月日均产量1410万吨，较11月减13万吨，较去年同期减5.6万吨。2025年全年累计原煤产量483178万吨，同比增1.2% [3] - 2025年12月全国进口煤炭5859.7万吨，同比增11.94%，环比增33.01%。进口煤超预期是因印尼出口关税政策调整致海外供应商“抢出口”，以及年末国内供应收紧、内贸煤价格下跌使海外煤有进口优势 [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The marginal driving force of stock index futures is limited, and it remains in a volatile pattern. On January 28, the monthly contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF and IH increased, while those of IC and IM decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On January 28, IF rose 0.08%, IH fell 0.03%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.22%. The closing prices and price - change percentages of various contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are detailed in the table [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, with decreases of 62 lots, 4488 lots, 40713 lots, and 68320 lots respectively. The total positions of IF and IH increased by 15622 lots and 3905 lots respectively, while those of IC and IM decreased by 904 lots and 15637 lots respectively [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing the differences between futures prices and spot prices [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, including net changes in some contracts [5]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Quantitative Fund News**: There are rumors that regulatory authorities plan to implement the 'T + 3' system for the program trading of major quantitative funds, but many billion - level quantitative private equity managers said they have not received relevant requirements [6]. - **Fed Policy Expectations**: As the expectation that BlackRock's chief investment officer Rick Rieder may replace Powell grows, some futures and options traders are betting on the Fed to turn dovish. Rieder said earlier this month that the Fed's benchmark interest rate should be lowered from the current 3.5% - 3.75% range to 3% [6]. - **Stock Market Performance**: The A - share market showed narrow fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The turnover of A - shares reached 2.99 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.58%, reaching a 4 - and - a - half - year high [6][7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance - On January 28, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded after a decline, recovering part of the previous day's losses. The closing price of J2605 was 1684 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the trading volume was 13,284 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1134.5 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%, and the trading volume was 714,203 lots [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coke 2605 contract continued to decline, but the J - value was significantly dull. The KDJ indicators of the daily line of coking coal 2605 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value and K - value turning up and the D - value continuing to decline. The green columns of the MACD of the daily line of coke and coking coal 2605 contracts enlarged for the second consecutive trading day [8]. Group 3: Spot Market - On January 28, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1455 yuan/ton, in Lvliang was 1483 yuan/ton, in Linfen was 1640 yuan/ton, in Handan was 1420 yuan/ton, in Heze was 1430 yuan/ton, and in Pingdingshan was 1660 yuan/ton, all with no change [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - News: The regulatory policy tightening led to the decline of metal prices with poor fundamentals. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, and the coal - coke prices rebounded after reaching a low [10]. - Fundamentals: Independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 5 weeks, and the loss amplitude has been expanding for 3 weeks. The coke production has decreased slightly for 2 consecutive weeks after increasing in the first 2 weeks of the year. The port coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks, and the steel mill coke inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early October last year, while the coking enterprise coke inventory has increased after decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded since January 12, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically remained above 190,000 tons recently. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 5 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since the end of January last year, while the coking coal inventory of steel enterprises and ports has been relatively stable [10]. - Forecast: The news has a dual impact on the coal - coke futures prices, but the fundamentals change little, resulting in the relative stability of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise. It is advisable to try the strategy of buying for hedging or investment at low prices after the callback stabilizes [11]. Group 5: Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the total assets of central enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, with a total profit of 2.5 trillion yuan, fixed - asset investment of 5.1 trillion yuan, and tax payment of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025. The investment in strategic emerging industries was 2.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.8% of the total investment [12]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, 940 million tons of crude steel production capacity, 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 170 million kilowatts of coal - fired power units have completed ultra - low emission transformation [12]. - The number and production capacity of open - pit coal mines in China will continue to increase, and their position in the energy supply system will become more important [12]. - By January 25, Wuhai Energy Company completed 1.2284 million tons of raw coal production and 1.0239 million tons of commercial coal sales, achieving a good start [13]. - Haohua Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 419 million yuan and 569 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 45.08% - 59.55% [13]. - Baofeng Energy expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 11 billion yuan and 12 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 73.57% - 89.34% [13]. - In 2025, the raw coal production of large - scale industrial enterprises in Ningxia was 10.28106 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13]. - In 2025, Shaanxi added 30.95 million tons/year of coal production capacity, and 10.04 million kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity [13]. - The iron ore "water - rail intermodal transport" business of Hubei Energy Jingzhou Coal Port was officially launched [13]. - Shanxi is promoting economic development and "major project construction year" work [13]. - Hudong - Zhonghua Shipbuilding signed a contract to build 4 + 2 LNG carriers [14]. - Huaibei Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be about 1.495 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 69.21% [14]. - China National Energy Group opened a new coal supply channel to the central - China region [14]. - Northeast Power Grid's power consumption load reached a record high in late December 2025 [14]. - The daily power generation of Datang Huayin Electric Power's thermal power units reached a record high [14]. - Shanxi Coking expects to be profitable in 2025, but its net profit will decline by more than 50% year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's effective supply of coking coal was close to 480 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The net import volume of coking coal decreased for the first time since 2021, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4% [14]. - In 2025, the freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port reached 42.433 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, a record high [14]. - The anti - dumping measures for stainless steel welded pipes originating from China in the Eurasian Economic Union will be extended to November 12, 2026 [14]. - Mongolia plans to produce 90 million tons of coal, 1.9 million tons of copper, and 9.4 million tons of iron ore in 2026 [14]. - India and the EU reached a free - trade agreement on January 27 [14]. - India's coal production target for the 2026 - 27 fiscal year is 1.31 billion tons [15]. - A barge collision accident in Indonesia may affect coal barge transportation [15]. - In 2025, Brazil's Vale's iron ore production reached 336 million tons, a new high since 2018 [15]. - The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and oil [15]. - In 2025, South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal's coal export volume increased by 11% year - on - year to 57.66 million tons, a four - year high [15]. - India Oil Corporation plans to purchase at least 24 million barrels of Brazilian crude oil in the next two years [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the precious metals and broader commodity sectors, particularly in light of recent price movements in gold and silver, which have reached historic highs, with COMEX gold surpassing 5300 and silver exceeding 110 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The overall A-share index experienced a slight increase of 0.11%, while the non-ferrous metals sector surged by 6%, accounting for 330 billion out of a total transaction volume of 3 trillion, indicating a significant rise compared to December [1][2]. - The cyclical sectors, including oil and gas, coal, construction materials, steel, and chemicals, all saw price increases, with a majority of the 1700 stocks that rose today belonging to these sectors [1][2]. - The CSI Dividend and Shanghai Composite indices have a high weight of non-ferrous metals, with the former rising by 1.56% and the latter recovering to 4151 points [2]. - A notable decline in the US dollar index to 95 contributed to a 2.58% increase in Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The bond market also saw significant gains, with long-term yields decreasing by approximately 1.5 basis points [2]. Investment Trends - Institutional investors have been increasing their positions in non-ferrous metals for at least six months, with various client groups holding positions in this sector [2]. - The current market sentiment remains strong, with a variety of investment themes emerging, including commercial aerospace, storage, semiconductor equipment, and space photovoltaics, despite regulatory interventions aimed at cooling the market [2]. - The focus on precious metals is expected to continue, with the recommendation to implement trailing stop-loss strategies in the current high-emotion environment [2]. Risk Considerations - There is a need to differentiate between inflation-related sectors, as some, like crude oil, may not share the same price increase logic as gold and silver, highlighting potential risks [3]. - The real estate sector saw a significant rise due to some developers no longer being required to report "three red lines" indicators, which may indicate a stabilization in real estate stocks and an improved economic outlook [3]. - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending is linked to reduced pressure on disposable income, with upcoming data on city housing price indices and CPI being crucial to monitor [3]. Fund Flow Analysis - Institutional fund flows indicate a continued accumulation of rights assets, with passive equity funds showing a slight net inflow, while active equity, fixed income+, and convertible bonds experienced inflows as well [3][4]. - Non-ferrous metals emerged as the top sector for fund accumulation, representing 20% of all funds [4]. - Other sectors receiving significant inflows include electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and automotive [5]. - Fixed income+ saw a net subscription ratio of 7.06%, with major inflows into electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, banks, and non-ferrous metals [5]. - The net subscription ratio for convertible bonds was 1.37%, indicating a recovery in investment levels after a brief decline [5]. Additional Insights - The net redemption ratio for short-term bonds was 0.63%, primarily driven by redemptions from wealth management subsidiaries [6]. - The net redemption ratio for currency investments was 2.83%, with significant net redemptions from bank proprietary trading [6]. - QDII saw a net subscription ratio of 0.17%, with wealth management and public funds buying in while brokerages sold [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance and increasing popularity of the Commodity ETF (510170), which has seen a significant rise in both its scale and shares, reaching a record high since its inception [1] - The Commodity ETF (510170) has experienced a continuous net inflow of funds totaling 197 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Commodity Stock Index, which includes large and liquid commodity production companies, reflecting the overall performance of commodity-related securities in the Shanghai market [1] Group 2 - Recent trends show that the decline of the US dollar index, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, has led to an overall increase in base metal prices, driven by structural changes in global supply and demand dynamics [2] - The demand for base metals is being bolstered by the acceleration of energy transitions, particularly in green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, which are creating sustained demand for copper and aluminum [2] - Precious metal prices have reached new highs due to heightened safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases exceeding expectations, further enhancing the investment value of precious metals [2]

✈长江金属&煤炭丨"步量黑金"系列调研【第五站：河南】 #【平煤股份】现场调研 晚餐：2月2日（周一）18:00 调研：2月3日（周二）08:30 出席：公司领导 地点：河南省平顶山市新华区矿工中路21号 #【神火股份】现场调研 时间：2月3日（周二）14:30 出席：公司领导 地点：河南省商丘市永城市东城区东环路北段369号 ———————————— ———————————— 11月份开始，我们持续开展主产地+重点上市公司系列调研，前期已走访陕西/北京/山西/安徽地区煤炭产业 链，2.2-2.3我们将开启河南站，欢迎#找对口销售或我们团队报名！名额有限先到先得！ #【兰花科创】现场调研 时间：2月2日（周一）09:00 出席：公司领导 地点：山西省晋城市城区凤台东街2288号兰 ✈长江金属&煤炭丨"步量黑金"系列调研【第五站：河南】 11月份开始，我们持续开展主产地+重点上市公司系列调研，前期已走访陕西/北京/山西/安徽地区煤炭产业 链，2.2-2.3我们将开启河南站，欢迎#找对口销售或我们团队报名！名额有限先到先得！ #【兰花科创】现场调研 时间：2月2日（周一）09:00 出席：公司领导 地点：山西省晋 ...

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英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of iron ore are expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range oscillations with cost as the bottom support [2][11]. - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and is expected to oscillate within a range; coking coal is expected to oscillate within a range [2][15][16]. - The supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising [2][20]. - Logs are expected to oscillate within a range [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of futures I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.63%); the positions decreased by 6,440. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores declined slightly, and the basis increased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 futures were 3,123 yuan/ton and 3,280 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.39%. The positions of RB2605 increased by 29,747, and those of HC2605 increased by 9,222. Spot prices in most regions decreased or remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP's first - half iron ore output hit a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased in quantity and price. Some steel products are subject to export license management [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 were 5,632 and 5,606 respectively; the closing prices of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 were 5,802 and 5,832 respectively. Spot prices and various spreads changed to different extents [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The start - up rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai changed. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,134.5 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,684 yuan/ton, up 1.0%. Spot prices of most coking coals and cokes remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction had a 27% non - sale rate, and the market sentiment cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of change. The January long - term agreement prices of some regions decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the port market price was firm, with a slight increase in upstream quotes, but downstream demand was weak. The production area market was stable and slightly strong. In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, and the coal import volume in December 2025 exceeded expectations [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed to different degrees. The spot prices of most logs remained stable, and the spreads also changed [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].