Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend despite fluctuating interest rate expectations [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices, with significant year-to-date gains across various metal categories, particularly energy metals and precious metals [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical developments will continue to influence metal prices positively, particularly for gold and silver [4][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.15 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 77.71%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 60.09 percentage points [8]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Precious metals saw a price increase, with gold prices rising by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium, indicating a mixed performance with some metals experiencing price increases while others faced declines [15][17]. - Key companies in the industry are highlighted with their respective valuations, showing a range of price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 78.3, suggesting potential shifts in demand dynamics between these two precious metals [23]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in domestic social inventory and fluctuations in production rates [28]. - For aluminum, the report indicates an increase in downstream processing rates and a tightening supply-demand balance, suggesting a positive price outlook [42][44]. Small Metals - The report highlights the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices continue to rise due to strong demand in energy storage [9][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [8]. Core Views - The demand outlook in the energy storage sector remains positive, driving significant price increases in lithium chemical products [4]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve becoming more uncertain [12][13]. - The overall market for precious metals is characterized by a strong performance, with gold and silver prices benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [12][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, but expectations for a rate cut in December have become more volatile, impacting market confidence [12]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, while silver prices have also increased significantly [74]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in the A-share and H-share markets [14]. 2. Industrial Metals - The market for copper remains tight, with supply disruptions contributing to price support, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to seasonal demand [15][18]. - The anticipated increase in investment and consumption due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to further support copper prices [18]. - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [18]. 3. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with strong demand from the energy storage sector driving prices higher [19]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase, further supporting price stability [19]. - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [20]. 4. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is showing a mixed outlook, with price increases in raw materials but cautious purchasing behavior from separation enterprises [21][24]. - The market for antimony and tungsten is also experiencing fluctuations, with specific stocks recommended for monitoring [24]. 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [25][26]. - Notable stock performances include Fangyuan Co. with a 34.59% increase and Yunlu Co. with a 14.98% decrease [28]. 6. Valuation - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently valued at a PE ratio of 26.47, with aluminum expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and higher green metal value [35].

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is in the high position of "Bull Market 1.0," with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector and logical breaks in the cyclical market. Conditions for the initiation of Bull Market 2.0 are not yet complete [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share AI industry chain is in a state of "long-term low cost-effectiveness" similar to previous years in various sectors, indicating a high-level consolidation phase followed by an adjustment phase [2] - The high-level consolidation phase typically lasts at a quarterly level, and adjustments are triggered by mid-level disturbances in the industry trend, but this does not signify the end of the industry trend [2] Group 2: Cyclical Market Analysis - The recent cyclical market is characterized by short-term price increases and expectations of PPI turning positive by mid-2026, but there is significant divergence regarding the pace of PPI improvement [3] - The cyclical market is approaching a differentiation phase as cost-effectiveness decreases, and the sustainability of price increases becomes more critical [3] Group 3: Future Challenges - By spring 2026, the A-share market may face three major challenges: the technology sector's long-term low cost-effectiveness, a critical verification period for demand, and immature conditions for the transition to Bull Market 2.0 [4][5] - The market is expected to experience a two-stage bull market, with the first stage being the structural bull market in 2025 and a potential peak in spring 2026 [4][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - In the current high-level consolidation phase, the focus should be on Alpha opportunities in both cyclical and technology sectors, with an emphasis on sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics and high dividend yields [7] - Short-term opportunities in technology growth are expected to arise from small rebounds, particularly in sectors with new catalysts or significant industry space, such as energy storage and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [3]. Core Views - Precious metals have seen a reduction in negative factors, indicating a favorable time for left-side positioning. The market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve leadership, which has led to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. The report suggests that the prices of these metals have stabilized, making it an opportune moment for investment [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the copper supply remains tight due to disruptions in mining, with expectations of shortages continuing until 2026. The report highlights that the current copper price is supported by this supply-demand imbalance [2]. - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous reduction in inventory, leading to price increases. The report notes that lithium carbonate prices have risen by 7.5% to 87,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that the negative factors affecting precious metals are gradually dissipating, and it is now a good time for left-side positioning. The market's expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve has contributed to a significant rise in gold and silver prices [1][34]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a tight supply situation due to mining disruptions, with global copper inventories increasing by 14,300 tons. The report emphasizes that the supply-demand imbalance is a key support for copper prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report mentions that aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and domestic consumption policies [2]. - **Nickel**: The report highlights a decline in purchasing sentiment for nickel, leading to weaker prices. The supply of nickel salts is constrained, pushing up production costs for smelters [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report states that lithium prices have increased due to ongoing inventory depletion, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 87,000 yuan per ton. The demand from the electric vehicle market continues to grow, supporting price increases [2]. - **Cobalt**: The report indicates that cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to a rigid supply gap, despite a decline in actual transaction volumes due to high prices [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for potential investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company Yiqiu Resources (601388) is planning to engage in hedging activities to mitigate market price volatility risks associated with its production and operations, particularly in aluminum alloy ingots and non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Company Announcement Summary - As of November 14, 2025, Yiqiu Resources' stock closed at 3.34 yuan, a 0.3% increase from the previous week, with a market capitalization of 7.352 billion yuan, ranking 44th in the industrial metals sector [1]. - The company held its sixth board meeting on November 14, 2025, where the proposal for hedging business was unanimously approved by all nine attending directors [1][3]. - The hedging activities will involve trading in futures and options, with a maximum margin and premium not exceeding 9 million yuan, and the highest contract value held on any trading day capped at 2.1 billion yuan [2][3]. - The funding for these activities will come from the company's own resources, and the authorization for this hedging business is valid for twelve months from the board's approval [2].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current "Bull Market 1.0" phase is at a high level, with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector, and increasing resistance to further upward breakthroughs. The cyclical market is still in a "running ahead" phase, with mid-term logic showing gaps, and conditions for the initiation of "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet complete. It is advised to focus on small wave rhythms based on short-term cost-effectiveness in a high-level oscillation market [1][4][6] - The A-share AI industry chain is currently in a state of "the major industrial trend has not ended + small fluctuations + long-term low cost-effectiveness area." Historical experience suggests that future trends will typically be divided into "high-level oscillation phase" and "adjustment phase" [1][4][6] - The report outlines three challenges that the A-share market may face in the spring of 2026, which could be a potential peak: 1. Long-term low cost-effectiveness in technology, which may trigger adjustments; 2. A critical verification period for demand-side conditions; 3. Conditions for the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet mature [1][6][7] Market Phases - The high-level oscillation phase makes it increasingly difficult to earn valuation money, and new industrial catalysts or sustained high growth in performance are less likely to lead to upward breakthroughs. This phase typically lasts at a quarterly level, and adjustments may not occur immediately [4][5][6] - The adjustment phase is usually triggered by intermediate disturbances in industrial trends, which do not signify the end of structural bulls but may adjust to reasonable levels between bull and bear markets [5][6][7] Investment Focus - In the current high-level oscillation zone, both cyclical and technology sectors should focus on Alpha opportunities. Short-term cyclical investments should prioritize sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as basic chemicals and industrial metals, as well as high-dividend-rewarding coal and leading oil companies in Hong Kong [1][6][7] - Short-term opportunities in technology growth mainly come from small wave rebounds, with a focus on sectors with new catalysts or significant industrial space, particularly energy storage and storage solutions. Additionally, sectors with upward economic outlooks and relatively high cost-effectiveness may see early gains before spring 2026, especially in innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries [1][6][8]

Market Overview - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.19% on November 14, with Shenhuo Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Guocheng Mining (000688) with a closing price of 25.22, up 3.40% on a trading volume of 589,400 shares and a turnover of 1.508 billion [1] - Minfa Aluminum (002578) closed at 5.00, up 2.67% with a trading volume of 3.1543 million shares and a turnover of 1.621 billion [1] - Major decliners included: - Shenhuo Co. (000933) with a closing price of 25.73, down 4.63% on a trading volume of 601,500 shares [3] - Shengda Resources (000603) closed at 24.57, down 4.51% with a trading volume of 253,700 shares [3] Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 3.963 billion in main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.957 billion [5] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zijin Mining with a main fund net inflow of 132 million, but a net outflow from retail investors of 41.48 million [5] - Hai Liang Co. (002203) had a main fund net inflow of 48.92 million, but also saw a retail net outflow of 41.32 million [5]

Industrial Metals - The supply side of industrial metals is experiencing continuous disturbances, with good downstream demand for copper and aluminum, leading to stable price increases and improved corporate profitability [1] - Copper prices are supported by supply tightness, with a projected global copper shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, mainly due to the expected full recovery of Grasberg and Panama copper mines [2] - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a potential shortage if supply decreases or demand increases [2] Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by multiple factors including weak U.S. non-farm data, controlled inflation, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has lowered rates twice recently [3] - Central banks globally, including China, have shown a strong willingness to increase gold reserves, with China having added gold for 12 consecutive months [3] Energy Metals - The introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a long-term increase in cobalt prices, with a potential supply gap of at least 10% in the global cobalt market over the next two years [4] - The lithium industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, driven by strong demand from the rapidly growing domestic new energy vehicle market and significant increases in energy storage battery shipments [5] Minor Metals - The strategic importance of minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is increasing, with prices expected to rise due to policy adjustments and demand recovery [6][8][9] - China's dominance in rare earth resources is significant, controlling about 50% of global resources and 90% of oxide production, with a projected price increase for praseodymium-neodymium oxide [7] Uranium - The demand for uranium is expected to rise with the growth of nuclear power generation, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power generation capacity could become the largest in the world by 2030 [10] - The supply side remains constrained, with minimal new investments in uranium mines, leading to a potential increase in uranium prices [10] Recommended Companies - For copper: Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, Jinchuan Group, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining [11] - For aluminum: China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, Zhongfu Industrial, Tianshan Aluminum [11] - For precious metals: China Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, WanGuo Gold Group, Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources [11] - For energy metals: Zhongjin Resources, Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt [11] - For minor metals and processing: Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, Bowei Alloy [11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Xinyuan Intelligent Manufacturing has shown a significant increase in price and trading activity, indicating potential investor interest and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 14, Xinyuan Intelligent Manufacturing's stock price rose by 2.02% to 12.61 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.845 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 35.96%, with a 1.12% rise over the last five trading days, 4.30% over the last 20 days, and 0.64% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The net outflow of main funds was 805,400 CNY, with large orders buying 4.963 million CNY (15.16% of total) and selling 5.768 million CNY (17.62% of total) [1]. - Xinyuan Intelligent Manufacturing has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 25, where the net buying was -5.4697 million CNY [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - Xinyuan Intelligent Manufacturing, established on June 6, 1992, and listed on September 10, 1992, is located in Chongqing and primarily operates in the manufacturing sector, specifically in metal products [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 76.48% from agricultural machinery, 18.75% from magnesium-aluminum metal tools and vehicle parts, and 1.53% from custom aluminum furniture [2]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Xinyuan Intelligent Manufacturing reported a revenue of 474 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 343.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7951 million CNY, up 24.76% year-on-year [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 50.2071 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.8802 million CNY distributed in the last three years [4]. Group 5: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 2.61% to 14,600, with an average of 15,381 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.55% [3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders saw a change, with the Golden Eagle Hengrun Bond Initiating A (015931) exiting the list [4].

Core Viewpoint - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price growth this year, with a 100.77% increase, reflecting strong performance in the aluminum industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved a revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.47% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4.398 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 14, Yun Aluminum's stock price was 26.16 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 90.722 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a recent decline of 2.02% in intraday trading, with a trading volume of 160 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.18% [1]. - The stock has experienced a net outflow of 23.3583 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yun Aluminum was 79,100, a decrease of 8.51% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 9.30% to 43,857 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Yun Aluminum has distributed a total of 6.069 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.884 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 269 million shares, an increase of 72.0936 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF were among the top ten circulating shareholders, with slight reductions in their holdings [3].