投资逻辑 25Q2 有色金属板块涨幅 5.50%，涨幅超过沪深 300 指数;工业金属贵金属价格上涨，带动板块内企业业绩增长及板块 表现领先。 铜：铜供应紧缺叠加新一轮电气需求驱动，Q2 铜价触底反弹。铜矿及冶炼企业 25Q2 营收 4275.20 亿元，环比+20.41%； 归母净利润 229.71 亿元，环比+18.19%；铜加工板块 25Q2 营收 831.26 亿元，环比+6.29%；归母净利润 11.86 亿元， 环比+7.05%。中国新能源领域的强劲需求及多家矿企下调产量指引，推动商品价格反弹。 铝：基本面支撑铝价韧性较强，叠加成本端煤炭跌价，吨铝利润环比有所增加。25Q2 电解铝板块营收 1137.10 亿元， 环比+6.29%；归母净利润 96.01 亿元，环比+11.40%；25Q2 铝加工板块营收 543.78 亿元，环比+7.84%；归母净利润 19.24 亿元，环比+8.92%。中美关税博弈致铝价短暂下跌，基本面强支撑彰显铝价韧性，吨铝利润较 Q1 高位继续上 行，标的中国宏桥，云铝股份等。 贵金属：金银价格全面上涨。25Q2 贵金属板块营收 1265.78 亿元，环比+25.15%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major indices during the morning session, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.65 points, with an increase of 0.12% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12710.25 points, with an increase of 0.11% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2906.03 points, with an increase of 0.55% [1] Sector Performance Top Gaining Sectors - Precious Metals: Increased by 7.12%, with a total trading volume of 845.52 million hands and a net inflow of 20.88 billion - Biopharmaceuticals: Increased by 2.67%, with a total trading volume of 542.53 million hands and a net inflow of 8.02 billion - Film and Television: Increased by 2.29%, with a total trading volume of 843.68 million hands and a net inflow of 4.11 billion [2] Top Declining Sectors - Insurance: Decreased by 2.30%, with a total trading volume of 181.90 million hands and a net outflow of 17.61 billion - Military Equipment: Decreased by 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 1445.87 million hands and a net outflow of 48.57 billion - Securities: Decreased by 1.04%, with a total trading volume of 3305.29 million hands and a net outflow of 67.34 billion [2]

Group 1: Market Activity - The Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) saw a morning increase of 2.11% and received a net subscription of 30.6 million units, indicating strong market interest in the sector [1] - Over the past five days, the ETF has attracted a net inflow of 28.4 million yuan, and 40.96 million yuan over the last ten days, reflecting positive sentiment towards the sector's future [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Jinchuan Group, Western Gold, and Silver Industry reached their daily limit, while Huayu Mining and Hunan Gold saw significant gains of over 8% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices have reached a historical high of $3542.8 per ounce, driven by three main factors: concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, and significant upward revisions in gold price forecasts by institutions [3] - Analysts suggest that the combination of these factors enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving continued inflows into gold-related stocks [3] - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is anticipated to boost nonferrous metal prices by making physical assets more attractive as the dollar depreciates and reducing borrowing costs for companies [3] Group 3: Future Outlook for Nonferrous Metals - CITIC Construction expresses optimism for the nonferrous metal sector, citing the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy and domestic initiatives to optimize production factors as supportive of rising metal prices [4] - The industrial metal sector is currently undervalued, suggesting potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for nonferrous metals beginning to take shape [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is highlighted, as these metals benefit from global geopolitical dynamics [5] Group 4: Sector Composition and Investment Strategy - According to Shenwan's classification, as of the end of July, the Nonferrous Metal Leader ETF and its linked funds track the Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal Index, with copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium holding respective weights of 24.5%, 15.3%, 14.4%, 11.5%, and 8.2% [5] - This diversified exposure allows for risk mitigation compared to investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, emphasizing the potential for a rebound in precious metals. The A-share bull market does not necessarily imply that gold will underperform, as the focus remains on the gold price itself. Three catalysts have driven the gold price breakout: 1) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising to nearly 90%; 2) Renewed geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade concerns due to Trump's 50% tariff on India; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, highlighting the potential for a rebound in the precious metals sector. The report suggests that the second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly-level resonance in gold stocks across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The report recommends increasing allocations to gold stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [6][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are in the early stages of a cyclical reversal, with copper and aluminum leading the way. The recent rebound in industrial metals is attributed to enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. The report notes that copper inventories have decreased, while aluminum inventories have increased. It anticipates that copper and aluminum demand may decline in the second half of the year, but supply elasticity will limit the extent of deterioration. The report suggests that copper and aluminum equities may outperform as the cycle reverses [7][6]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report highlights the strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, as they are expected to undergo a value reassessment. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to recover due to improved orders and government policies emphasizing resource control. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as they are likely to benefit from these trends [8][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals declaring Trump's tariffs illegal has reignited the tariff debate, while Powell's dovish stance at Jackson Hole has increased the certainty of rate cuts in the medium term, suggesting that liquidity conditions will continue to resonate both domestically and internationally, with industrial and precious metals expected to perform well as the peak demand season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's global tariffs are "illegal," leading to renewed uncertainty in tariff negotiations, although the tariffs will remain in effect until mid-October [1]. - Powell's unexpected dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with political pressures, enhance the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term [1][2]. - The combination of a loose domestic monetary environment and ongoing international liquidity conditions is expected to support precious metals, despite potential short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The tariff debate may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the dovish Fed stance and adjusted inflation targets provide upward support for precious metals [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for August were reported at 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, indicating economic resilience and supporting inflation expectations, which in turn bolster precious metal prices [2]. - Long-term risks related to U.S. government debt and challenges to the dollar's status may lead to continued strong performance of gold in a restructured global monetary system [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Performance - With Powell signaling rate cuts and the Chinese government emphasizing fiscal and financial support to boost domestic demand, industrial metals are expected to benefit from improving demand expectations [2]. - The transition from off-peak to peak demand seasons, coupled with low inventory levels for major industrial metals, suggests a favorable supply-demand balance that could support prices [2]. - Seasonal disruptions in supply due to maintenance and other factors, alongside rising demand, may lead to a marginally improved supply-demand dynamic for industrial metals [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - Short-term factors are interfering with performance release, but the growth potential for the silver and tin leader is promising [1]. - The company expects revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 58.6 billion, 66.8 billion, and 83.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.473 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 796 million, a decrease of 9.93% [1]. - The revenue from tin and silver accounted for 65.6% of total revenue, with tin revenue at 762 million (30.81%) and silver revenue at 861 million (34.80%) [1]. - The gross profit from tin and silver combined accounted for 70.5%, with tin gross profit at 521 million (gross margin of 68.4%) and silver gross profit at 470 million (gross margin of 54.7%) [2]. Production and Operational Analysis - The company produced 3,590 tons of tin in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 20.64% year-on-year, while silver production increased by 4.57% to 131.3 tons [2]. - The subsidiary, Yinman Mining, reported a net profit of 670 million, a decrease due to a mining accident that caused a temporary shutdown [3]. - The company is making progress in restructuring with China Cinda, and key projects are advancing [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.06 billion, 2.41 billion, and 3.13 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.4, 15.7, and 12.1 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].

Group 1 - The consumer electronics sector, particularly the Apple supply chain, is gaining attention due to upcoming product launches from Apple and META [1] - Citic Securities suggests focusing on resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military industries for September investments [1] - The potential for a weaker dollar due to possible Federal Reserve rate cuts may catalyze a new round of growth in resource commodities, especially precious metals and copper [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates a market shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic "anti-involution" and overseas manufacturing recovery [2] - Recommended sectors include industrial metals, raw materials, and capital goods, as well as insurance and brokerage firms benefiting from improved capital returns [2] - The market is expected to see opportunities in consumer-related sectors as profitability improves, with a broadening of market styles underway [2] Group 3 - Minsheng Securities highlights that the market's positive sentiment is supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to sustain high trading volumes [3] - The insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from lower liability costs due to a new round of interest rate adjustments, enhancing equity allocations [3] - Brokerage firms are projected to continue their performance recovery trend into 2025, supported by a stable capital market and high trading activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining (601168) has experienced a stock price increase of 3.96% this week, closing at 18.65 yuan as of August 29, 2025, with a total market capitalization of 44.443 billion yuan [1] Company Announcements - The company announced the resignation of President Zhao Fukan due to work changes, who will continue to serve as a director and chairman of Western Mining Group Finance Co., Ltd. [1] - Zhou Huarong has been appointed as the new president, with a term aligned with the current board of directors [1] - Zhao Fukan's resignation will not affect the company's normal production and operations, effective immediately upon delivery to the board [1] Executive Profile - Zhou Huarong, born in February 1974, holds a master's degree in business administration from the University of Electronic Science and Technology and is a qualified mineral processing engineer [2] - He has served as the executive director of Qinghai Copper Industry Co., Ltd. since June 2025 and has been the vice president of the company and chairman of Qinghai Western Magnesium Co., Ltd. since December 2023 [2]