早 报 精 选 4、美国CPI同比涨幅低于市场预期，交易员加大下月降息押注。 5、中国恒大：将在8月25日从港交所退市。 宏 观 新 闻 1、 财政部等三部门印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。其中提出，对符合条件的个人消费贷款给予财政贴息。贴息范围 包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育、教育培训、文化旅游、家居家装、电子产品、健康医疗等重 点领域消费。对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。 2、财政部、中国人民银行等九部门印发 《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，同时符合条件的贷款可享受贴息政策。方案提 出，对于经办银行向服务业经营主体发放的贷款，财政部门按照贷款本金对经营主体进行贴息，贴息期限不超过1年，年贴息比例为 1个百分点，中央财政、省级财政分别承担贴息资金的90%、10%。单户享受贴息的贷款规模最高可达100万元。 3、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。记者提问称，特朗普称可能会允许英伟达在华销售"特供版"芯片。林剑表示，中方已多次表明 在美输华芯片问题上的原则立场，希望美方以实际行动维护全球产供链稳定畅通。 4、外交部发言人林剑昨日答记者问。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the semiconductor sector, particularly with companies like Cambrian and Shanghai Hualing, is driven by the anticipation surrounding the release of DeepSeek-R2, marking a significant moment for domestic computing power in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Cambrian and Shanghai Hualing experienced a 20% increase in stock prices, indicating strong market interest [1][3]. - The release window for DeepSeek-R2 (August 15-30) has created a speculative environment, with investors betting on its potential impact [3]. - Daily Interactive, which previously surged due to DeepSeek, saw a 12% increase, suggesting that smart money is positioning itself ahead of the expected announcement [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - DeepSeek-R2 boasts 1.2 trillion parameters, with a dynamic activation of only 78 billion, outperforming GPT-4 by 20% in inference speed while reducing costs to $0.07 per million characters, just 2.7% of GPT-4's cost [3]. - The training of DeepSeek-R2 is based on Huawei's Ascend 910B chip, achieving 91% of the performance of Nvidia's A100 with an 82% utilization rate, indicating a significant advancement in domestic technology [3]. - The model supports multi-modal integration, achieving a 98.1% accuracy rate in medical diagnostics, surpassing top-tier doctors [3]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The release of DeepSeek-R2 has faced delays, originally scheduled for May, due to performance issues and supply chain disruptions, which could affect market sentiment if further postponed [4]. - The recent launch of GPT-5 poses a competitive threat, showcasing superior capabilities in various applications, necessitating DeepSeek-R2 to demonstrate its effectiveness through real-world results [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key players in the semiconductor core circle include Cambrian, which collaborates with the Ascend ecosystem, and Shanghai Hualing, a critical supplier of materials for Ascend chips [7]. - Companies like Tuowei Information and Digital China are positioned to benefit from increased orders driven by the Ascend server market, with Digital China expected to see an 80% increase in orders by 2025 [8]. - Technology empowerment firms such as Softcom Power and Guangxun Technology are integrating R2 technology into their platforms, enhancing product quality and positioning themselves strategically in the computing power landscape [9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on leading stocks like Cambrian and Tuowei Information if R2 is released on schedule, while considering a shift to more stable alternatives like SMIC and Changdian Technology if delays occur [10]. - Long-term strategies should include monitoring the commercial feedback of R2 in industrial and medical applications, as well as tracking server shipment volumes from Ascend partners to confirm market health [11].

政策层面，我国持续深化资本市场改革，新"国九条"、资本市场"1+N"政策、分红新规等政策措施陆续 落地，突出强本强基、严监严管，全力以赴推动资本市场高质量发展的改革主线。在融资融券业务方 面，通过一系列"抑空促多、疏堵结合"的措施，着力构建长效监管体系，这确保了此次融资余额重返2 万亿元的过程中保持资本市场结构健康，有效防范了杠杆泡沫风险。 8月11日，融资余额再次突破2万亿元，与上一次已相隔十年。十年间，融资规模大体接近，资本市场成 熟度却截然不同。自2024年"9·24"行情启动以来，A股步入"慢牛"轨道，主要股指匀速上涨，上证指数 重新站上3600点，中长期资金加速入市，筑牢市场稳健基础。 本轮融资余额快速增长，核心驱动因素在于政策利好出台、宏观经济稳定、自主科技崛起三者的协同共 振，共同提升了中国资产的吸引力，带动市场情绪回暖，并吸引了杠杆资金的理性参与。 科技创新层面，数据显示，A股上市公司2022年至2024年研发支出合计分别为1.64万亿元、1.72万亿 元、1.84万亿元，得益于A股上市公司长期增加研发投入，坚持自主研发，在半导体、算力、人形机器 人等核心技术方面持续取得突破，催化"新质生产力 ...

GPT5 对于算力模型应用的意义 20250812 摘要 GPT-5 验证了算力投入的持续性和路线正确性，增强了市场对后续版本 （如 6.0、7.0、8.0）的信心，对算力板块的估值具有重大战略意义， 有望推动相关公司估值从 10 倍提升至更高水平。 国内算力与美国存在一代到 1.5 代的差距，需十倍算力投入弥补。国内 训练端和推理侧成长空间巨大，编程、医药等应用侧需求增加，推动国 内算力发展，但需解决芯片供应等瓶颈。 富联在 AI 服务器发展中具备优势，包括 rack 比例提升、深度参与零部 件模组到系统级能力、全球化产能布局以及上下游垂直整合能力，三季 度至明年一季度业绩预期强劲，是重点推荐对象。 AI 算力链已进入拔估值阶段，PE 估值提升基于投资者对市场和产业长 期认知的变化，应采用牛市思维定价。短期 EPS 上修受限于产能瓶颈， 更应关注未来三到五年的成长持续性。 海外 AI 商业化应用进展显著，北美科技巨头资本开支增加推动算力、大 模型及推理应用发展，提升 ROI 回报。国内 C 端应用尚未突破，但 B 端 付费应用显现潜力，二线标的业绩陆续爆发，一线标的一致超预期。 Q&A GPT5 对于算力模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power and chip concept stocks have shown significant movement, with major stocks reaching historical highs, driven by favorable government policies and increasing demand for AI infrastructure [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 12, A-shares saw a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50%, Shenzhen Component up 0.53%, and ChiNext Index up 1.24% [1]. - AI computing power concept stocks surged, with Cambricon Technologies hitting a 20% limit up and reaching a historical high, while Industrial Fulian rose over 9% to a new high [1][5]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Fujian Communication Administration issued a three-year action plan for high-quality development of new information infrastructure, aiming for a computing power scale of 9 EFLOPS by 2027 [1][7]. - The Sichuan Communication Administration and other departments released a plan to quadruple the computing power scale of telecom enterprises by the end of 2027 compared to 2024 [8]. Group 3: Company Performance - Industrial Fulian reported over 50% growth in overall server revenue in Q2, with AI server revenue increasing by over 60% year-on-year [6]. - Cambricon Technologies' market capitalization surpassed 350 billion yuan, while Industrial Fulian's market cap approached 790 billion yuan [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on the extended opportunities within the AI computing power supply chain, as global demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow [9][10]. - The PCB market related to AI is expected to see significant growth, with projections of reaching $5.6 billion and $10 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10][11].

AI算力、芯片概念股集体异动！ 此外，今日A股收盘后，广州也传来算力领域的利好消息。广州市人民政府近日印发《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的 意见实施方案》。其中提到，加强对区块链、人工智能等关键数字服务机构的招商引资力度，培育本土优质数字服务机构。支持在南沙建设区块链、人工 智能等关键数字技术与金融场景融合应用的数据算力中心、研发认证中心、测评中心以及监管平台等机构。 8月12日，A股三大指数集体走强，截至收盘时，沪指涨0.50%录得7连阳，深证成指涨0.53%，创业板指涨1.24%。值得关注的是，AI产业链持续活跃，算 力、芯片概念股盘中大幅拉升，"龙头股"寒武纪20cm涨停，股价创历史新高；工业富联涨超9%，同样创出新高。 消息面上，福建通信管理局近日印发新型信息基础设施高质量发展三年行动计划。其中提出，到2027年，数据中心布局进一步优化，规模实现显著增长， 全省互联网数据中心算力规模达9 EFLOPS。稍早之前，四川省通信管理局等十四部门联合印发《四川省信息基础设施强基赋能行动方案（2025-2027 年）》，提出到2027年，全省基础电信企业算力规模较2024年底翻两番。 ...

盘面上看，半导体、算力、大金融、燃气等板块涨幅居前；稀土永磁、BC电池、PEEK材料概念、水泥 等板块跌幅居前。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 8月12日，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%。截至14:02，上证指数报3668.53点，涨 0.58%；深证成指报11342.66点，涨0.45%；创业板指报2403.64点，涨1%。沪深两市合计成交额1.54万 亿元。 ...

Market Trends - The market trends from late July to early August closely resemble those from late February to early March, indicating a cyclical pattern in market behavior [3][4] - Both periods experienced a month-long rally followed by significant adjustments and rebounds, with similar volume patterns of "decrease-increase" [4] Risk Signals - The current market exhibits typical "tail behavior," with three major risk signals to watch for: accelerated sector rotation, rising external pressures, and irrational leverage [6][7][9] - Rapid sector rotation is evident, with strong sectors unable to maintain momentum, reflecting a "one-day tour" pattern where funds quickly shift from high-performing sectors to lower-positioned ones [6] - External pressures, particularly from U.S.-China relations, are increasing uncertainty, impacting market momentum [7][8] Leverage and Market Behavior - Leverage funds are increasing their positions despite market pressures, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, the highest since July 2015, indicating potential overheating [9] - The behavior of leverage funds during market adjustments suggests a tendency to amplify volatility, raising concerns about future market corrections [9] Investment Strategy - In the context of a "tail market," the recommended strategy is to reduce positions at highs while preparing for potential rebounds, emphasizing the importance of locking in profits rather than chasing returns [11][13] - The current market dynamics suggest that maintaining a cautious approach may be more valuable than aggressive strategies, especially as market conditions evolve [14][15]

Group 1 - The A-share computing power industry chain is active, with a focus on optical modules, servers, and PCB leaders, as evidenced by the 5G Communication ETF (515050) rising over 2% in intraday trading [1] - China Mobile announced its 1H2025 performance, indicating a strategic investment increase in AI computing power, with capital expenditure of 58.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 and a full-year guidance of 151.2 billion yuan [1] - The total intelligent computing scale reached 61.3 EFLOPS in 1H2025, with self-built intelligent computing capacity at 33.3 EFLOPS and over 660,000 IDC racks for external services [1] Group 2 - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index, with a latest scale exceeding 6 billion yuan, focusing on the Nvidia, Apple, and Huawei supply chains [2] - The optical module CPO concept stocks account for 31% of the ETF's weight, while PCB circuit board concept stocks account for 15.95% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Lixun Precision, indicating a strong presence in the AI computing hardware and 6G industry chain [2]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market. The current WIND All A trend line is around 5540 points, with a profit-making effect value of 2.30%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][4][8]. Industry Rotation - In terms of industry allocation, the model continues to recommend sectors that are in a turnaround phase, specifically Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities, as the upward trend persists. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power. Short-term signals indicate that the liquor and agriculture sectors are entering a low point in the emotional cycle, which may lead to a rebound [2][4][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an excess benchmark of 1.32% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 33.83% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy also outperformed the benchmark by 1.77% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 19.41% for the year. The net profit gap strategy had an excess benchmark of -0.26% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 37.50% for the year [1][9][15]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is at the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to maintain an 80% allocation [4][6][8].