Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in computing power demand, with significant increases observed since June 2023. The sector is entering a phase of valuation upgrades, with leading companies like Xuchuang expected to have a reasonable valuation of at least 30 times earnings due to increasing demand visibility by 2027 [3][6]. Company Insights - **Xuchuang**: Valuation outlook is between 600 billion to 800 billion RMB, with potential to reach 40-50 times in a bull market [6]. - **Google**: Anticipates capital expenditures of $85 billion, with a strong ecosystem including TPU chips and OCS technology, which is attracting interest from major players like OpenAI, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft [7][11]. - **Domestic Players**: Companies like Alibaba and Baidu are advancing their AI chip developments, with IPO plans and technological breakthroughs contributing to the domestic computing power chain [5][6]. Technology Developments - **Optical Switching (OCS)**: OCS technology is crucial for high-speed interconnects in data centers, with increasing demand for high-speed interconnects leading to new market opportunities. Google has deployed approximately 15,000 OCS devices, expecting to reach 30,000 by 2026 and 50,000 by 2027, with the overall market projected to reach 770,000 units by 2027 [11][2]. - **OCS Advantages**: OCS technology offers low power consumption, low cost, and low latency, making it attractive for companies like Meta and Microsoft. It is particularly effective in handling high-throughput data streams and dynamic network topologies [4][14]. Market Potential - The OCS market is expected to approach 100 billion RMB by 2027, with significant growth driven by the adoption of OCS technology by major cloud service providers [11][38]. - The AI industry's long-term demand is supported by major companies like NVIDIA, Meta, and TSMC, with projected smart spending reaching $3-4 trillion by 2030 for NVIDIA alone [9]. Competitive Landscape - Key suppliers for OCS technology include TI, Saiwei Electronics, Fujing, and Fengjing Technology, with major manufacturers like Dekoli and Xuchuang actively involved in the market [36][39]. - The competition in OCS technology is intensifying, with various companies showcasing their products at industry events, indicating a collaborative push towards commercialization [12][39]. Future Outlook - Google plans to introduce a second-generation OCS technology using coherent liquid crystal solutions to address current bottlenecks in channel capacity, with commercial deployment expected in 2026 [19]. - The OCS technology is anticipated to maintain high growth rates over the next three to five years, with significant contributions from both domestic and international players in the supply chain [38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and competitive dynamics within the AI and OCS technology sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to become a focal point for the market, emphasizing anti-involution, service consumption, boosting domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [1] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment remains high, with no significant signs of peak or decline, while indices are experiencing narrow fluctuations at high levels [1] - Individual stocks and sectors are showing considerable volatility [1] Investment Strategy - As risks increase in high-positioned sectors, the strategy suggests focusing less on indices and more on individual stocks [1] - It is recommended to position in low-positioned sectors and focus on stocks related to "refusing adjustments" [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include humanoid robots, AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba is shifting its focus from eCommerce to artificial intelligence (AI), with significant investments aimed at becoming one of the world's largest companies [2][3] - The company plans to invest $53.42 billion in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years, with over $14 billion already spent in the past year [3] - Alibaba's market capitalization could potentially reach $1 trillion, increasing from its current level of less than $400 billion [3] Investment Activities - In the last three years, Alibaba has participated in deals worth more than $3.3 billion, including investments in AI model startups and robotics [2] - The company is positioning itself as China's most aggressive AI investor, with spending levels that rival those of major U.S. tech firms [3] Revenue Growth - AI products have driven double-digit revenue growth for Alibaba, with the cloud division experiencing a 26% year-over-year revenue increase [4] - AI-related revenue accounted for over 20% of revenue from external customers during the last quarter, indicating strong demand for AI applications [5] Market Trends - There is a growing trend among companies to adopt AI, with over 80% of CFOs at large companies either using or considering the use of AI [6]

【 摘要 】华泰柏瑞基金指出，利率敏感性较高的港股科技板块更受到资金青睐，尤其恒生科技 指数。摩根资产管理认为，美联储年内再降息2次的概率提升，美元可能继续走弱。 一、焦点锐评 1．美联储如期降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25% 当地时间9月17日，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%-4.25%，为年内首次 降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息。同时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储 备金利率25个基点至4%。美联储点阵图显示，2025、2026、2027年底和长期联邦基金利率预期中 值分别为3.6%、3.4%、3.1%、3.0%（6月预期为3.9%、3.6%、3.4%、3.0%），2028年底联邦基金 利率预期中值为3.1%。 【解读】中金公司李求索等指出，美联储降息可能缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘，同时带来弱势美 元并伴随全球资金再配置。人民币资产或受益于全球货币体系碎片化和多元化的双重红利，尤其 是海外资金回流及全球再平衡资金导入。此外，全球资金流动性释放对美元汇率产生下拉效果， 进一步促进资金配置转向中国资本市场。 二、权益市场 1.国信证券：风格或阶段性向价值平衡 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ability to achieve stable returns in a volatile A-share market, with the fund managed by Shen Li showing over 66% return year-to-date as of September 18, 2023 [1] - Shen Li's investment strategy focuses on a unique balance between growth and value, avoiding the extremes of short-term speculation and static low valuations [1][2] - The strategy involves a two-layer screening mechanism, focusing on industry stability and key factors such as profitability and risk-reward ratio [1] Group 2 - The market is currently in a recovery phase, with sentiment indicators returning to normal levels and showing optimism without overheating [2] - Key sectors to watch include AI, which is expected to attract significant capital inflows, particularly in hardware, as the industry shows strong internal momentum [3] - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upcycle, characterized by improved quality compared to previous cycles, with surviving companies demonstrating product competitiveness [3][4] Group 3 - High-quality manufacturing companies that have expanded overseas have undergone a value reassessment, establishing new barriers to entry in global capacity [4] - The trend of consumer de-leveraging is expected to create structural opportunities for consumption recovery, with a focus on high-cost-performance products [4] - In the traditional liquor sector, leading companies with channel optimization and market share enhancement capabilities are anticipated to see valuation recovery post-industry consolidation [4]

Group 1: Valuation Trends in AI Companies - Seven of the highest-valued private tech companies are now worth $1.3 trillion, almost double from the previous year, with OpenAI leading at $324 billion [1] - The valuation surge reflects actual growth, with companies growing at rates of 100%, 200%, and 300% on already substantial numbers [2] - 19 AI firms have raised $65 billion so far this year, indicating strong financial backing and little incentive to go public [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Some analysts believe current valuations are "insane" and acknowledge being in a bubble, yet they continue to invest heavily [3] - OpenAI is expected to spend aggressively on datacenter construction, indicating a strong belief in future growth [4] Group 3: Hedge Fund Interest and Stock Performance - Hedge funds are increasingly interested in AI stocks, with research showing that imitating top hedge fund picks can outperform the market [5] - Accenture plc is highlighted as a must-watch AI stock, with a recent price target adjustment from $355 to $315 while maintaining a Buy rating [8] - CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is also noted as a key AI stock, with a price target raised from $450 to $475 following positive investor meetings [11][12] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Accenture has lagged behind the S&P by approximately 2500 basis points over the last 90 days, attributed to low industry growth [8] - CrowdStrike provided guidance for over 20% net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth for fiscal year 2027, significantly above consensus expectations [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but the overall hawkish tone from Powell has dampened market risk appetite [3][12][13] - Economic data from August shows a significant slowdown, with domestic demand weakening and GDP growth for Q3 projected at around 4.9%, prompting expectations for policy support to stabilize the economy [4][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential new policies aimed at boosting consumption and the real estate sector, as the current economic environment necessitates additional support [4][15][21] Group 2 - The report highlights a strong focus on the AI industry as a key investment theme, alongside sectors with robust economic support such as rare earths, precious metals, military, and financial IT [5][7][27] - It identifies that in a rising industry rotation intensity, growth style is likely to continue its upward trend for at least one month after reaching a peak, while financial style may weaken and cyclical style may strengthen [5][27][28] - The analysis of past growth cycles indicates that after peaks in industry rotation intensity, strong growth sectors tend to maintain their leading positions, suggesting a favorable outlook for AI and related industries [5][27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment opportunities in gaming, AI applications, and content innovation, highlighting the potential for significant revenue growth in these sectors [3][4] Industry Data Overview - The game "元气唤灵师" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "三角洲行动" tops the iOS revenue chart as of September 20, 2025 [10][14] - The film "731" achieved the highest box office revenue of 9.98 billion CNY for the week [25] Industry News Summary - Continuous advancements in AI applications and content innovation are expected to enhance the entertainment consumption landscape [29] - OpenAI is reportedly expanding its AI hardware initiatives, which may accelerate the commercialization of AI applications across various sectors [3][4] Company Highlights - Heartbeat Company is set to launch its self-developed RPG game "伊瑟" on September 25, 2025, with over one million pre-registrations, indicating strong market interest [3] - The collaboration between Heartbeat Company and the "黄油小熊" IP has led to a significant rise in the rankings of "心动小镇" in the iPhone game sales chart [3] Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in the gaming sector, particularly in companies like Heartbeat Company, Giant Network, and Tencent, due to their promising new releases and established franchises [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [52]. Core Insights - Continuous iteration of AI models both domestically and internationally is observed, with World Labs' 3D generation model Marble showing significant performance improvements over its predecessor, which is expected to empower fields like gaming and film production [7][46]. - The upcoming National Day film season is anticipated to drive high box office revenues, with 14 films already scheduled for release, including sequels to popular films, which are expected to enhance the attention on related companies [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Ratings - The film sector is rated positively [3]. AI Developments - World Labs has released the 3D generation model Marble, which can create persistent and controllable 3D worlds from a single image or text prompt, showing improvements in geometric structure, style diversity, and world size compared to previous models [3][45]. - Alibaba has open-sourced its first deep research agent model, Tongyi DeepResearch, achieving state-of-the-art results in multiple benchmark tests, which enhances various Alibaba applications [4][46]. Film Industry - As of September 20, 2025, 14 films have been scheduled for the National Day release, with a cumulative "want to watch" count of 1.126 million, indicating strong audience interest [5]. - The total box office for domestic films in 2025 has reached 40.9 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of 250 million yuan on September 19 [24]. Gaming Sector - The gaming market in China generated actual sales revenue of 29.08 billion yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [17]. - The top three mobile games in the iOS best-seller list as of September 20, 2025, are "Delta Action," "Honor of Kings," and "Crossfire: Gunfight King" [17]. Marketing and Advertising - The outdoor advertising expenditure in the first half of 2025 reached 120.6 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6% [38].

2025 年 09 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假临近，震荡分化延续 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 2、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 3、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 4、《沪指表现强势，风格再迎轮动？ — 策略周报》2025-07-27 5、《沪指站上 3500，如何应对？ —策 略周报》2025-07-13 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】债市或延续区间震荡，关注信用债票息收入。当前债市并未出 现实质性利空，经济数据连续回落并未形成有效利好，反映市场情绪依然偏 弱，收益率下行空间尚未打开。债市短期大概率维持震荡走势。10 年期国债 收益率或仍 ...