- The report discusses a **cycle analysis model**, which observes the market's monthly upward trend since early 2024, despite recent adjustments and a temporary break below the rising channel. This model suggests that the overall risk remains controllable, even if there is a future pullback, as the high-frequency temperature gauge of major broad-based indices remains below 20, indicating a relatively low level [1][9] - The **industry divergence indicator** is highlighted, showing that the divergence among primary industries has dropped to a historically low level. Historically, this indicator tends to rise again when the market restarts, potentially signaling the emergence of a sustainable market theme. The report notes that the TMT sector, which previously adjusted, is showing signs of renewed capital attention [2][9] - The **Four-Drive Model** provides insights into specific sectors. It identifies potential rebounds in the small-cap growth sector, coal sector, semiconductor materials and equipment sector, and sci-tech materials sector. These sectors are noted for signals such as low-cycle absorption, volume contraction during adjustments, and signs of stabilization or rebound after significant corrections [3][6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial system is undergoing profound changes, marked by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which signal a significant shift in monetary policy and its implications for global economic coordination and financial governance [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, marking its first rate cut since 2025 [1][13]. - On October 29, 2025, the Fed further lowered the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year, indicating a critical turning point in its monetary policy cycle [1][13]. - This shift is driven by both domestic economic conditions and the need to address global economic slowdown and inflation dynamics [1][13]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a complex interplay of cyclical and structural economic challenges [2][14]. - The number of non-farm payroll jobs added has been significantly revised down, with a reduction of 911,000 jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, highlighting deeper adjustments in the labor market than previously reported [2][14]. - The Fed's acknowledgment of increased risks in the labor market reflects a broader concern about potential economic recession [2][14]. Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Despite inflation levels remaining above the Fed's 2% target, the year-on-year increase has shown a declining trend for five consecutive months, indicating a complex inflationary environment [3][15]. - The current economic backdrop resembles a "stagflation" scenario, where economic growth slows while inflation remains relatively high, complicating monetary policy decisions [3][15]. - The Fed's updated forecasts suggest a gradual return to the 2% inflation target by 2028, providing a theoretical basis for the recent rate cuts [3][15]. Group 4: Global Economic Impact - The Fed's monetary policy adjustments are expected to have significant international repercussions, influencing capital flows and financing conditions in emerging markets and developing economies [4][22]. - The interconnectedness of the global financial system necessitates that U.S. monetary policy considers its international effects, particularly in light of slowing growth among major trading partners [5][18]. - The Fed's actions may catalyze a shift towards a more diversified international monetary system, as changes in dollar liquidity conditions affect financing costs in emerging markets [4][22]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Asset Pricing - The initial market reactions to the Fed's rate cuts have been volatile, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond yields, reflecting investor uncertainty about the economic outlook [7][23]. - Historical patterns suggest that preventive rate cuts can boost stock market performance, yet current economic fundamentals may limit the effectiveness of such measures [7][23]. - The pricing mechanisms for commodities and other assets are undergoing adjustments, with gold prices surging in response to the anticipated monetary policy changes [7][24]. Group 6: Capital Flow and Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cuts are likely to alter global capital flow patterns, with a potential shift of investments from dollar-denominated assets to emerging markets seeking higher returns [6][20]. - Recent data indicates a reversal in foreign investment trends in China, with significant net inflows into domestic stocks and funds, reflecting increased global capital interest [6][25]. - Investment strategies will need to adapt to the changing risk-return profiles of various asset classes, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation models [6][25].

晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 ["TMT","AI"] TMT调整、AI行情扩散、交易环境 看多看空 前期TMT调整在滚动收益差、成交占比、拥挤度、历史对比等方面都较为充分；后续从 海外映射、产业叙事、交易环境看，重视AI行情向中下游软件应用的扩散，产业进展对AI中下游 催化显著，且岁末年初市场环境有利。 兴业证券11月23日报告指出，前期TMT调整较为充分。从滚动收益差看，TMT相对全A超额收益大幅收 敛；成交占比显示交易拥挤度充分释放；多数AI细分方向拥挤度回落至历史低位；与历史对比，本轮 调整在时间和空间上已较充分。 后续重视AI行情向中下游软件应用扩散。11月以来，中美AI行情均向 中下游扩散，受产业叙事转变和全球AI应用进展推动。产业进展对AI中下游 ...

Group 1 - The current market trend is shifting back to the "technology growth" theme, with a mid-term focus on the technology sector [1] - Technology-weighted stocks have significantly contributed to the current bull market, with notable market capitalization growth in sectors such as electronics, communications, and power equipment [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector remains relatively under-traded, indicating that the valuation differentiation between growth and value is not extreme [1] Group 2 - The AI industry trend is expected to drive attention towards underperforming technology areas such as AI applications, consumer electronics, and humanoid robots by 2026 [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI continues to remain above the overall manufacturing level, indicating a "polarization" in performance between technology companies and traditional industries [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which has a daily fluctuation limit of 20%, reflecting the performance of 100 representative innovative companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment opportunities and strategies in the technology sector, emphasizing the importance of building industrial ecosystems and aligning with national strategic directions [1][4][10] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Institutions should focus on selecting the right sectors according to national strategic guidelines, building industrial ecosystems, and being patient for value realization [1][7] - The capital market is increasingly supporting new productive forces, with sectors like aerospace, quantum computing, robotics, and semiconductors gaining attention [1][4] - Investment firms are encouraged to establish specialized teams to enhance their capabilities in emerging technologies [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends - The IPO market has shown signs of recovery, with technology stocks leading the upward trend in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4][7] - The investment landscape has shifted, with a significant increase in state-owned capital's share in the private equity market, now exceeding 70% [7][8] Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Investment institutions face challenges such as the tightening of A-share IPOs in the second half of 2023, but a recovery is anticipated [7][8] - The need for a diversified investor structure is highlighted to enhance market vitality and focus on the growth potential of investment targets [7][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining rationality in investment decisions amidst high valuations and market bubbles [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing the capital market's functionality and adaptability, focusing on both traditional industry upgrades and cutting-edge technologies [9][10] - Investment firms are encouraged to build industrial ecosystems that integrate various stakeholders, including research institutions and financial entities [9][10] - The goal is to support the globalization of Chinese technology companies and attract global investment to foster technological advancement [10][11]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 港股通50ETF（159712）跟踪的是港股通50指数（930931），该指数从港股通机制下选取交易活跃、流 动性良好的50只港股上市证券作为指数样本，覆盖金融、信息技术、消费等多个重要行业，综合反映港 股通范围内具有市场代表性和核心竞争力的上市公司证券的整体表现。 招商证券指出，港股通50行业近期受美元指数走强影响出现调整，恒生科技指数领跌，对外部流动性变 化较为敏感。当前港股估值已进入配置价值区间，恒生科技PE-TTM处于历史14.8%分位。在中国经济 结构转型背景下，科技板块汇集了A股稀缺的优质科技公司，AI产业趋势持续强化，相关企业竞争力突 出。顺周期、服务业消费及自主可控成为三大主线，其中科技板块在AI基础设施、大模型竞争升级推 动下具备长期发展潜力。存储器、集成电路等TMT领域维持高景气， ...

Market Overview - The domestic equity market index experienced a downward trend during the week of November 17-21, 2025, with all Shenwan industry sectors collectively declining. The banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showed relative resilience, while the power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemical industries faced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - A total of 41 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 36.035 billion units. This includes 7 bond funds, 3 FOF funds, 12 mixed funds, 16 stock funds, 1 REIT, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 money market fund [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The performance of long-term thematic funds was poor this week, with the financial real estate thematic fund showing relative resilience. As of November 21, 2025, the net value declines for various thematic funds were as follows: financial real estate -3.02%, national defense and military industry -3.19%, consumption -3.31%, TMT -4.47%, industry balance -4.92%, industry rotation -4.93%, cyclical -5.28%, pharmaceuticals -5.98%, and new energy -8.82% [6] ETF Market Tracking - Different investment range ETFs saw inflows this week, with significant passive fund accumulation in broad-based thematic ETFs, particularly in TMT. The median return for stock ETFs was -4.61%, with a net inflow of 49.533 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -6.25% and a net inflow of 17.821 billion yuan. Cross-border ETFs had a median return of -3.42% with a net inflow of 2.329 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of -2.50% and a net inflow of 6.495 billion yuan. Notably, the small-cap thematic ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 11.983 billion yuan [7] Fund Position Monitoring - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds increased by 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous week. In terms of industry allocation, there was an increase in funding for household appliances, non-ferrous metals, and banking, while basic chemicals, automobiles, and computers saw a reduction in funding [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 24 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 24.369 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.04 trillion yuan and a total of 4,323 bonds issued as of November 21, 2025. In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for actively managed equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -5.71%, -4.76%, and +0.03%, respectively. High-quality governance, ecology, and ESG-themed funds showed significantly better performance. As of November 21, 2025, there were 213 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 145.742 billion yuan [9]

Core Insights - The report from the Zhang Qiyao team at Industrial Securities indicates that the previous adjustments in the TMT sector have been substantial, with signs of recovery in the AI market as it begins to expand towards downstream applications in both China and the US [1][11]. Group 1: TMT Sector Analysis - The rolling excess return of the TMT sector relative to the entire A-share market has significantly narrowed, reaching a level of approximately -7.5%, which is consistent with historical bottoms [2]. - The trading congestion in the TMT sector has been adequately released, with the trading volume percentage dropping to around 28%, aligning with levels seen during previous adjustments [4]. - The current congestion levels in various AI sub-sectors have notably decreased, with most sectors now at historical lows, indicating a more favorable trading environment [5]. Group 2: Historical Context - The current TMT adjustment has been sufficient in both time and magnitude, with the maximum drawdown recorded at -13.7% over 35 trading days, which is comparable to previous adjustments that typically lasted 30-45 days with drawdowns around 15% [8][10]. Group 3: AI Market Dynamics - Since November, the AI market has begun to shift towards downstream software applications, driven by a change in industry narratives and advancements in global AI applications [11][14]. - Recent developments, such as Alibaba's confidence in domestic AI commercialization and Google's advancements in multi-modal capabilities, have catalyzed the penetration of AI into various sectors including content production, marketing, and e-commerce [14][16]. - The overall market sentiment towards the end of the year is expected to favor the AI downstream sector, providing a conducive trading environment [16].