2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，短期价格窄幅波动 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 1 月 26 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,142 | 18 | 0.58 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,305 | 17 | 0.52 | | | | 昨日成 ...

从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-26 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3142 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 18 元/吨（0.576%）。当日注册仓单 18487 吨, 环比减少 9757 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.18 万手，环比减少 5512 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3305 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 18 元/吨（0.547%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 301 吨。主力合约持 ...

Steel Industry - The national rebar production increased by 9.25 thousand tons to 1.9955 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 254.2 thousand tons [2] - Social inventory rose by 77.1 thousand tons to 3.0312 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 433.7 thousand tons [2] - The overall rebar demand is strong externally but weak internally, with significant growth in overseas demand compensating for domestic shortfalls [2] Hot Rolled Steel - National hot rolled steel production decreased by 2.95 thousand tons to 3.0541 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 172.3 thousand tons [3] - Social inventory fell by 4.66 thousand tons to 2.8114 million tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 241.8 thousand tons [3] - Domestic demand for hot rolled steel is average, and overseas demand has declined [4] Iron Ore - Iron water production slightly increased by 0.09 thousand tons to 228.1 thousand tons, with steel mill profitability rising by 0.86% to 40.69% [5][18] - Global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, with Australian shipments at 16.88 million tons, down 2.436 million tons week-on-week [5][18] - Port and steel mill inventories continue to accumulate, with increases of 2.08 million tons and 1.27 million tons respectively [19] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices remained stable for low-sulfur coal, while medium-sulfur coal prices increased by 100 yuan/ton [21] - Coking enterprises are experiencing production losses, with an average loss of 70 yuan/ton, leading to reduced production enthusiasm [20] - The overall demand for coke remains weak, with a slight increase in steel mill utilization rates [20] Scrap Steel - The national scrap steel price index rose by 0.6 yuan/ton to 2198.6 yuan/ton [22] - Scrap steel demand has decreased, with daily consumption falling by 0.47 thousand tons to 50.8 thousand tons [22][23] - Short-process steel mills are experiencing expanded losses, with electricity costs turning from profit to loss [22][23] Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon production slightly increased by 0.29% to 191.1 thousand tons, with demand supported by steel mills' final bidding before the holiday [24] - Silicon iron production decreased by 0.3% to 98.4 thousand tons, remaining at a five-year low [25] - Inventory levels for manganese silicon remain high, with a year-on-year increase of 22 thousand tons [24]

Core Viewpoint - Ba Yi Steel is facing significant financial challenges, with projected net assets for the end of 2025 expected to be between -1.95 billion and -1.76 billion yuan, which may trigger delisting risk warnings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.05 billion to -1.85 billion yuan for 2025, with non-recurring net profit expected to be between -2.10 billion and -1.90 billion yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ba Yi Steel reported a net profit of -572 million yuan, indicating a projected fourth-quarter loss of -1.48 billion to -1.28 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 307 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's net assets were reported at -476 million yuan as of September 30, 2025, following a profit of 125 million yuan in the third quarter [2] Industry Context - The steel industry is currently undergoing a "reduction in quantity and optimization of stock" adjustment period, characterized by weak supply and demand, tightening environmental policies, and price discrepancies between raw materials and steel [3] - The company is experiencing operational pressures due to regional market challenges, including low production efficiency in winter and imbalances in supply and demand, compounded by homogeneous competition and ineffective capacity utilization [3] Strategic Response - In response to its financial difficulties, Ba Yi Steel aims to enhance its risk resilience and development capacity through a comprehensive strategy focused on cost reduction, quality improvement, market expansion, and transformation [5] - The company plans to strengthen cost control, accelerate inventory turnover, and secure profits from forward orders, while also optimizing production efficiency and expanding market channels, particularly in Central Asia and the Northwest region [5]

Economic Overview - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [4][15]. - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and retail sales growing by 3.7% [4][15]. Steel Production and Demand - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel production will increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][15]. - The total steel inventory reached 12.5708 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 100,700 tons, indicating a mixed supply structure with an increase in construction materials and a decrease in sheet materials [5][16]. Market Performance - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.51%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week, with a profitability rate of 40.69%, up by 0.86 percentage points [5][16]. - The production of rebar increased by 92,500 tons to 1.9955 million tons, while hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased to 6.206 million tons, down by 25,500 tons week-on-week [6][18]. Price Trends - The current market for rebar is characterized by rising supply but weak demand, leading to a continuation of seasonal weakness in prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in steel prices [6][17]. - The trading strategy for rebar is set within a short-term range of 3,100 to 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is expected to range between 3,250 and 3,350 yuan per ton [8][19]. Alloy Market Insights - The alloy supply remains low with minimal changes in production, and the demand from steel mills is stable, leading to expectations of a continued oscillation in prices [9][20].

原标题：【盘点2025】2025年甘肃省属企业战略性新兴产业营收突破1000亿元 1月23日，记者从省政府国资委获悉，2025年，甘肃省属企业资产总额达19538.23亿元，同比增长 6.01%；实现工业总产值6413.87亿元，同比增长21.9%；战略性新兴产业营收1082.89亿元，同比增长 38.8%。 全省国资国企系统完成国企改革深化提升行动实施方案明确的123项改革任务。金川集团、酒钢集团、 白银集团等资源类企业产线稳产、达产、增产，产值显著增长。 省属工业企业全年生产电镍19.81万吨、阴极铜201.44万吨、锌锭39.66万吨、钢材819.17万吨，完成发电 量410.71亿千瓦时、煤炭产量1663.08万吨。甘肃电投集团常乐电厂6台100万千瓦燃煤机组投运，成为全 国最大百万千瓦级调峰火电厂。 省政府国资委深入开展"国资监管制度执行年"活动，指导省属企业制定修订管理制度955项、废止393 项。推进"管理人员能上能下、员工能进能出、收入能增能减"的"三能"机制改革，建立"业绩升薪酬 升、业绩降薪酬降"的收入分配机制，经理层成员任期制和契约化管理、管理人员末等调整和不胜任退 出制度在省市国有企业 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold price has surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, with institutions predicting it could rise to $6600 [2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to U.S. President Trump's policies reshaping international relations and investors fleeing sovereign bonds and foreign exchange markets [2] - Last week, gold prices increased by 8.5%, driven by a weakening dollar, which has made gold and silver cheaper for global buyers [2] Group 2 - In the past two weeks, stock ETFs have seen a net outflow of nearly 500 billion yuan, with significant redemptions in broad-based ETFs [3] - The trading volume of stock ETFs has surged, with some broad-based ETFs reaching record highs since their inception [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has been active in mergers and acquisitions, with several companies announcing related plans and progress [8] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a talent shortage, with investors with relevant experience being highly sought after [9] - The market is facing a significant gap in experienced commercial aerospace investors, leading firms to recruit candidates with adjacent experience [9] Group 5 - Global commodity markets are entering a new super cycle, with fund managers strategically increasing allocations to non-ferrous and chemical products [10] - Factors such as global monetary expansion, a credit crisis in the dollar, and geopolitical conflicts are contributing to this anticipated cycle [10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The latest data from Steel Silver E-commerce indicates an increase in the total steel inventory across 38 cities in China, reflecting a slight upward trend in the market as of January 26. Inventory Data - The total steel inventory in 135 warehouses across 38 cities reached 7.1072 million tons, an increase of 115,900 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 1.66% [1] - The inventory of construction steel amounted to 3.1608 million tons, which is an increase of 156,300 tons (+5.20%) compared to the previous week, covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [1] - Hot-rolled coil inventory totaled 2.0520 million tons, showing a decrease of 18,100 tons (-0.87%) from the previous week, including 15 cities and 47 warehouses [1] - Medium and heavy plate inventory was recorded at 706,800 tons, with a slight decrease of 700 tons (-0.10%) from the previous week, across 9 cities and 14 warehouses [1] - Cold-rolled and coated inventory reached 1.1876 million tons, down by 21,600 tons (-1.79%) from the previous week, covering 5 cities and 14 warehouses [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the articles is the increasing importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) disclosures among listed companies in the A-share market, especially with the mandatory disclosure of sustainability reports starting in 2026 [1][2] - Investors are encouraged to develop effective methods for evaluating ESG reports to avoid "greenwashing" risks and to identify companies that are genuinely committed to sustainable practices [1][2] - The shift from voluntary to mandatory ESG reporting is expected to enhance the completeness and comparability of reports, particularly in environmental data such as greenhouse gas emissions [2][3] Group 2 - Key areas of focus for evaluating ESG management include the clarity of disclosure boundaries, the quality of data, and the establishment of reduction targets and pathways [3][4] - Governance and social indicators that reflect long-term development potential are often overlooked, yet they are crucial for assessing a company's ESG performance [4][5] - Industry-specific scoring checklists are recommended to identify material issues that have both substantive impact and financial significance [5][6] Group 3 - The credibility of ESG data is increasingly reliant on third-party verification, which is becoming more prevalent among major companies [6][7] - Investors should focus on the authority of verification agencies and the scope of the verification to assess the reliability of ESG reports [7][8] - High-quality verification can enhance a company's score in mainstream ESG ratings, although it is not a direct indicator of higher valuation [8][9] Group 4 - The quality of ESG reporting is expected to lead to valuation differentiation in the market, with companies that provide incomplete or low-quality disclosures facing potential valuation discounts [9][10] - The mandatory disclosure will likely foster structural investment opportunities, encouraging competition among companies in terms of efficiency metrics related to energy consumption and emissions [10][11] - Enhanced ESG data quality may lead to the creation of new ESG index products and investment tools, benefiting both passive and active investment strategies [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The green and low-carbon transformation of enterprises is essential for high-quality development, requiring enhanced management capabilities, technological reserves, and financial support to drive deep transformation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Actions and Developments - Multiple listed companies have announced initiatives for green low-carbon transformation, covering sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and energy equipment, focusing on improving production efficiency and creating new market opportunities [1] - Liugang Co. plans to raise up to 300 million yuan for a high-quality technology upgrade project aimed at enhancing product quality and reducing emissions [1] - Zhongjin Lingnan is implementing a project to expand lead-zinc ore processing capacity, which will significantly improve resource utilization efficiency [1] Group 2: Technological and Strategic Considerations - The transition to green low-carbon practices has shifted from a strategic choice to a necessary operational requirement, particularly for high-energy-consuming industries [3] - Companies face challenges in selecting suitable technologies that balance advanced capabilities with cost-effectiveness, emphasizing the need for a strategic assessment of technology compatibility with long-term low-carbon goals [4] - The evaluation of technology should consider maturity, economic feasibility, environmental benefits, and adaptability to existing production lines [3][4] Group 3: Financial and Support Mechanisms - The contradiction between green investment and profitability is becoming more pronounced, with significant capital requirements and long payback periods posing challenges for companies [5] - Green finance faces issues such as mismatched loan terms and high entry barriers for small and medium-sized enterprises, which often struggle to access necessary funding [5][6] - Innovations in green financial products are expected in 2026, including transition bonds and asset securitization, to better support corporate transformation efforts [6]