Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - International: There is a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders led to a rise in CBOT soybean prices. MPOB's July report showed that Malaysia's palm - oil inventory accumulation was less than expected. High - frequency data indicated strong palm - oil exports from Malaysia from August 1 - 10, and Indonesia's reaffirmation of the B50 plan starting in 2026 caused a significant afternoon rally in Malaysian palm - oil futures [6][7]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise. The increase in July's soybean imports and recent export growth supported prices. Rising South American soybean premiums and trade - risk premiums made soybean oil relatively strong. Palm - oil inventory shifted from increase to decrease, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, with futures prices following external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline. The drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies supported rapeseed oil prices, keeping it in a range - bound oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release its August supply - demand report at 12:00 pm EDT on August 12 (early Wednesday morning Beijing time). Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean production to be 4.365 billion bushels, higher than last month's government forecast [2]. - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's July palm - oil exports were 1,309,059 tons (up 3.82% month - on - month), imports were 61,039 tons (down 12.82% month - on - month), production was 1,812,417 tons (up 7.09% month - on - month), and inventory was 2,113,278 tons (up 4.02% month - on - month) [2]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm - oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The National Grain and Oil Information Center stated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume slightly decreased last week. As of August 8, it was 2.18 million tons, down 80,000 tons week - on - week, 120,000 tons month - on - month, but up 210,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content. Views and Strategies - International: Strong US soybean harvest expectations, Trump's call on China for soybean orders, less - than - expected Malaysian palm - oil inventory accumulation, strong Malaysian palm - oil exports in early August, and Indonesia's B50 plan influenced international oil - related futures prices [6][7]. - Domestic: Different supply - demand situations and external factors affected the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the domestic market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on August 11, 2023, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] Market Overview - On August 11, 2023, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 52.58 cents per pound and are currently at 52.60 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.32% increase. The intraday high reached 52.62 cents per pound, while the low was 52.32 cents per pound [1] - On August 8, 2023, the opening price for soybean oil was 53.55 cents per pound, with a high of 53.65 cents, a low of 52.29 cents, and a closing price of 52.51 cents, marking a decrease of 1.70% [1] Price Information - As of August 8, 2023, the C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for September shipment is stable at $1,141 per ton, while the November shipment price is also stable at $1,120 per ton compared to the previous trading day [1] Trading Volume and Inventory - On August 8, 2023, the national first-class soybean oil trading volume reached 39,900 tons, which is an increase of 232.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 20,370 lots on August 8, 2023, reflecting an increase of 5,000 lots from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term trend of domestic oils is expected to diverge, with soybean oil anticipated to remain strong due to various factors including weather conditions and international policies [1] Group 1: Weather Impact on Soybean Growth - Weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains over the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth [1] Group 2: International Policies and Demand - The U.S. biodiesel policy is expected to positively influence U.S. soybean oil demand, while Brazil has raised its biodiesel blending ratio and Indonesia's B40 implementation is progressing well, both of which are favorable for domestic oils [1] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - MPOA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase by 9.01% for July, with an estimated inventory of 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% increase from June, and production of 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June [1] - Export volume for palm oil is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June, but high-frequency data suggests an increase in production and a decrease in exports, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation [1] Group 4: Domestic Oil Inventory and Trade Relations - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly decreased but remains at historically high levels, and improved trade relations between China and Australia may lead to increased canola seed imports from Australia [1] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, due to the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil and favorable international biodiesel policies, the domestic oil market is likely to experience a divergence in short-term trends, with soybean oil expected to perform strongly while canola and palm oil may experience fluctuations [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. After the release of MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, keeping the supply side of palm oil loose. Coupled with favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas, the soybean supply is also optimistic. Overall, the prices of oils continued to oscillate [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,970.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94 yuan or 1.04% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.00 yuan or 0.74%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,562.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.00 yuan or 0.55% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 10.00, an increase of 104.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 90.00 yuan/ton or 1.07%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a decrease of 7.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 19.32% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and the production decreased by 17.27%. According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, with a 17.18% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 3.13% decrease in Sabah, a 0.69% decrease in Sarawak, and a 2.58% decrease in Borneo. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in July was 1.84 million tons [2] - As of the week ending August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as last year's 85% and slightly lower than the five - year average of 86% [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,153 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,141 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 568 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 558 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 217 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (September shipment) was 190 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 315 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内豆油出口增加，远期供需及内外价差情况受关注】2025年1 - 6月，国内豆油出口累计13.8万吨， 较去年同期增加9.8万吨，累计同比增幅240.95%。出口主要增量流向中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、朝鲜 和印度。在美国生物柴油政策支撑下，美豆油走强拉动国际豆油价格上升，而国内豆油供应宽松，出口 窗口因此打开，企业出口贸易机会增多。 短期来看，国内大豆供应宽松，豆油库存处于同期高水平。 截至8月1日，压榨厂豆油库存为111.7万吨，去年同期为112.6万吨，国内豆油最便宜可交割价基差为 - 60元/吨。7月下旬以来，豆油基差止跌，从低点震荡小幅反弹。 远期方面，由于中美关税矛盾未解 决，四季度中国大豆采购存在不确定性。若2025年四季度不采购美国大豆，需警惕2026年2 - 3月大豆供 应紧张。且四季度是豆油需求旺季，要谨慎中期市场情绪对预期的发酵。 美盘豆油中期预计震荡中性 或偏强。今年美国在生物质柴油市场公布新政策45Z和RVO，利于美豆油长期需求格局。虽小型炼厂豁 免问题未解决，会影响价格波动性和阶段需求，但长期需求受产能扩张和政策支持，美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% from the previous week. Driven by short-covering, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak overall. The estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July reached a two-year high, but the market expected the export data at the beginning of August to improve, leading to a resonant rebound of Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic oils. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, but the increase in domestic exports alleviated the inventory pressure to some extent. Recently, the South American soybean premium has been rising continuously, combined with trade risk premiums, soybean oil continued to strengthen. The palm oil inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, continuing the pattern of weak supply and demand. Driven by the rebound of import costs, Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly. Regarding rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory continued to decline, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the rapeseed oil price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending August 1st, the commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, basically flat week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and up 200,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.13 million tons, up 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and flat year-on-year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week-on-week, down 40,000 tons month-on-month, and up 230,000 tons year-on-year; the palm oil inventory was 570,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 40,000 tons month-on-month, and down 30,000 tons year-on-year [2]. - As of the week ending August 3rd, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with the market expectation of 69%, down from 70% in the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% in the previous week, the same as 85% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 86% [2]. - Brokerage StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous season due to increased planting area and crop yield. StoneX also expected the US soybean production in 2025 to reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre [2]. - Reuters survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 was expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; the production was expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; the export volume was expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June [3]. - Brazil officially implemented a new biofuel blending standard on August 1st, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30) and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) [4]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased, and CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak. The estimated high inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was expected to improve in export data at the beginning of August, leading to a resonant rebound with domestic oils. Domestically, soybean oil inventory rose but was alleviated by exports, and soybean oil strengthened due to rising premiums and risk premiums. Palm oil inventory decreased, and Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly due to rising import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory declined, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a current price of 53.95 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% from the opening price [1] Market Overview - On August 4, the opening price for CBOT soybean oil was 53.89 cents per pound, reaching a high of 54.35 cents and a low of 53.52 cents, closing at 53.95 cents, which is a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The trading volume for national first-grade soybean oil on August 4 was 31,500 tons, showing a decrease of 27.59% compared to the previous trading day [1] Price Information - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for August shipment remained stable at $1,155 per ton, while the price for October shipment also held steady at $1,129 per ton compared to the previous trading day [1] Inventory Data - As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 1.1174 million tons, which is an increase of 29,300 tons (2.69%) from the previous week, but a decrease of 8600 tons (0.76%) year-on-year [1]

油脂周报：油脂有所回落，豆油价格坚挺 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 n 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计7月马棕产量环比上月同期增加7.07%，ITS数据显示7月马棕出口减少6.7%至129万吨。 2. 加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至07月27日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周减少72.78%至5.51万吨，之 前一周为20.24万吨。2024年8月1日至2025年07月27日，加拿大油菜籽出口量为949.22万吨，较上一年度同期的 681.73万吨增加39.24%。截至07月27日，加拿大油菜籽商业库存为120.14万吨。 3.本周油脂震荡回落，其中棕榈油回落较多，豆油受国内出口影响价格较为坚挺。整体上，7月马棕或继续增产累 库，但印尼库存持续偏低，其价格保持坚挺。短期盘面或受情绪有所转弱而出现回调，但回调幅度预计有限，方向 上维持逢低做多思路；8月将进入美豆结荚的关键生长期，还需重点关注8月的天气情况。国内大豆压榨较高，豆油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-8-4 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：等待宏观企稳，走势或有分化 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏空； 菜油偏多 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但印尼5月减产去库对价格有支撑；（2）豆油供应充足；（3）菜籽库存历史低位，短期压榨偏少。 | | | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴配额提振国际油脂需求，主要利多棕榈油、菜油。 | | | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏空 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存被动累库；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | | | 宏观及政策 | 棕榈油偏多； 菜油中性偏 空。 | ...