1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central price of palm oil is supported by a balanced supply - demand situation in the near term and a tight supply expectation in the fourth quarter. The price of soybean oil fluctuates following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil shows relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - In the international market, the USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak this week, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major vegetable oils mainly fluctuated, and the net long positions of foreign capital seats also fluctuated. Palm oil showed mediocre performance due to weak export data from Malaysia, with a decline in high - frequency production in September in Malaysia and still no significant increase in exports. Soybean oil fluctuated following palm oil due to high domestic inventory and a decline in soybean prices at the cost - end. Rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance, possibly reflecting the expectation of a decline in inventory due to difficulties in importing Canadian rapeseed [11]. - **International Vegetable Oils**: The USDA September report maintains that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons, and the estimated import of rapeseed oil will increase by 260,000 tons year - on - year. India imported about 1.62 million tons of vegetable oil in August, and its inventory accumulated to 1.87 million tons, still some distance from the average safe level of 2.27 million tons in previous years. The global new - crop rapeseed shows a yield - increasing pattern, with the USDA September report increasing the rapeseed yield forecast by 1.38 million tons month - on - month and about 5.2 million tons year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Vegetable Oils**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil is average, and that of palm oil is weak, with the spot basis slightly declining. The total domestic vegetable oil inventory is about 500,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly declining trend at a high level, the palm oil import is expected to remain at a slightly lower - than - neutral level with stable inventory, and the de - stocking progress of rapeseed oil slows down due to high prices. However, due to high - margin requirements for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic vegetable oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost to soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, the limited yield - increasing potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of vegetable oils. Vegetable oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand and tight expected supply. They are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium term before the inventory in sales areas and producing areas is fully accumulated and negative feedback from demand in sales areas appears. Currently, the valuation is high. It is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, the absolute valuation is high, the export of Malaysian palm oil is average with high production, indicating average demand in sales areas or high production in Indonesia, and there is a tight supply expectation in the medium term. Global rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase by 5 million tons and 3 million tons respectively. India and China currently make purchases based on rigid demand, and the relatively low inventory in India may attract palm oil buyers at low prices [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to be bullish. The core driving logic is the factors mentioned above that support the central price of vegetable oils. Currently, the valuation is high, and it is advisable to adopt the strategy of buying after the price drops and stabilizes [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the basis of palm oil 01 contract, soybean oil 01 contract, and rapeseed oil 01 contract, as well as their seasonal basis charts, to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3.3 Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, which helps to understand the supply situation of palm oil [27][28] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Supply**: It presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil through charts, reflecting the supply situation of soybean and rapeseed [29][30] - **Palm Oil Production Area Weather**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil production areas and related climate indices and phenomena through charts, which may affect palm oil production [32][33] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory of Three Major Vegetable Oils**: The report shows the total inventory of domestic three major vegetable oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts, reflecting the overall inventory situation [39] - **Profit and Inventory of Different Vegetable Oils**: It presents the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, as well as the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the inventory of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia through charts, to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different vegetable oils [42][44][45][47] 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil through charts, reflecting the cost situation of palm oil [50] - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Cost**: It presents the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed through charts, reflecting the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [53] 3.6 Demand Side - **Vegetable Oil Trading Volume**: The report shows the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year through charts, reflecting the trading demand for vegetable oils [56] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) through charts, which helps to understand the profit situation of biodiesel and its impact on vegetable oil demand [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Palm oil**: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Basis strategy**: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - **Spread strategy**: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - **Negative information**: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - **Spot trading information**: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - **Spread structure**: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - **Inter - variety spread structure**: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - **Foreign market**: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - **Soybean oil**: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].

Group 1 - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted for small refineries to large refineries, offering two options of 50% and 100% [1] - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices surged, reaching the highest level in three weeks [1] - Domestic oilseed futures prices strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the increase, surpassing 10,000 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - According to Guoyuan Futures, the recent domestic rapeseed oil import volume is low, but alternative resources like Australian canola present variables [5] - The market is focusing on Sino-Canadian trade relations and import policy dynamics, while rapeseed oil prices are affected by supply-demand and external factors, lacking sustained upward momentum [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Heavy rainfall in some palm oil producing areas and strong palm oil import data from India provided support for oil prices. Future attention should be paid to the progress of China-US negotiations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,482.00 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,418.00 yuan/ton, up 42.00 yuan or 0.50%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,053.00 yuan/ton, up 153.00 yuan or 1.55% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,410.00 yuan/ton, up 110.00 yuan or 1.18%, with a spot basis of P01 + -72.00, up 50.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,580.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan/ton or 0.70%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162.00, up 18.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 10,270.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.58%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 217.00, up 7.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: Ethanol production has made DDGS a cheaper feed option for the poultry industry, pressuring soybean meal. The US Department of Agriculture expects India's soybean meal exports to fall from 1.4 million tons to 0.9 million tons and palm oil imports to rise from 8.7 million tons to 8.9 million tons. As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.99%, up 2.71% from the previous week. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.4298 million tons, up 0.1013 million tons from the previous week. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) and (January shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) and (December shipment) increased by 21 dollars/ton and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil remained unchanged. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) and US West soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 1 dollar/ton, while the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) remained unchanged. The import soybean premium of Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 1 cent/bushel [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy rainfall in Malaysia may affect the palm oil picking progress in the short term [1] - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA report maintains the expectation of a soybean bumper harvest, and the overall soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China-US negotiation is ongoing, which may have a further impact on future market prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall in palm oil producing areas [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.36% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,376.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.65% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +43.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.43%. The spot basis was P01 + -122.00, with a month-on-month change of -86.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, with a month-on-month change of -14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.50%. The spot basis was OI01 + 210.00, with a month-on-month change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - As of September 15, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.70444 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons compared to the same period last week - The Sabah state government of Malaysia announced the cancellation of the state-level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday (16th) at the Independence Square in Kota Kinabalu due to heavy rain causing floods in at least seven counties - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to last week, with a decline rate of 0.01% - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to last week, with an increase rate of 3.58%; an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, with an increase rate of 24.92% - According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 was 742,648 tons, a 2.6% increase compared to the export volume of 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the oil processing industry in Jiangsu, focusing on hedging strategies and risk warning models for clients, providing a reference for other bulk commodity industries [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil processing industry includes three main categories: palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, all of which have similar and mature industrial chain models [1] - The global oilseed and oil industry primarily adopts a mature pricing model based on basis trading, using the "basis + corresponding month futures price" method for sales contract pricing [1] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - Procurement hedging includes "fixed price" and "point pricing" methods, with different procurement methods corresponding to different hedging strategies [2] - Sales hedging in domestic oil processing enterprises mainly adopts point pricing, allowing downstream customers to engage in point pricing procurement at any time under long-term purchase agreements [3] - Inventory basis hedging involves the difference between spot prices and futures prices, where companies cannot fully lock in price fluctuation risks due to various influencing factors [4] Group 3: Profit Sources - The industry has two main sources of profit: 1. Stable risk-free profit through point price contracts and sell hedging, locking in profits in advance [5] 2. Uncertain basis gains or losses, where favorable basis movements can yield profits, while adverse movements may increase inventory costs [5] Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The company should focus on key industries and gradually extend multi-industry hedging strategies, with a current coverage of 40 trading categories in traditional and strategic industries [6] - Collaboration between parent and subsidiary companies is essential to enhance risk control levels, utilizing AI technology to develop various commodity warning systems and improve the professional skills of product and client managers [7]

Group 1 - China Weaponry First Research Institute is recruiting for research and design positions [2] - Changsha Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. is looking for a General Manager for Risk Control and Compliance Department [2] - Shandong Yiyang Health Industry Development Group Co., Ltd. has job openings [2] Group 2 - Guangxi Beigang Oil Co., Ltd. is hiring for managerial positions [4] - Guotour Cultural Investment Group Co., Ltd. is seeking a Head of Finance Department [4] - The magazine "Modern State-Owned Enterprise Research" focuses on state-owned enterprise reform and party building, serving as a research platform [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8336 | 80 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8656 | 8486 | | 320 | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9330 | 86 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9290 | | | | 9330 ...