早盘速递 2025/12/16 5.俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克镍业公司（Nornickel）周一表示，已将今年镍供应过剩预测上调一倍，并将2026年的预测上调 了一倍多。在金属市场评估报告中，这家全球最大的钯生产商和主要的精炼镍生产商表示，预计今年镍供应过剩量将达到24万 吨，高于7月份预测的12万吨。该公司还表示，已将明年的供应过剩预测上调至27.5万吨，高于此前预测的13万吨。 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、铂、沥青、原油 夜盘表现 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 2.53% 贵金属, 32.75% 油脂油料, 8.72% 软商品, 3.08% 有色, 24.29% 煤焦钢矿, 10.86% 能源, 2.61% 化工, 10.28% 谷物, 1.36% ...

12月15日（周一），俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）表示，其将今年的镍供应过剩量预 估上调一倍，将2026年的过剩量预估上调超过一倍。 在一份金属市场评论中，作为全球最大的钯金生产商和主要的精炼镍生产商的Nornickel表示，预计今年 镍供应过剩量将达到240,000吨，高于公司在7月份预估的120,000吨。 由于印尼产量持续增长，供应快速增长，全球镍市场在过去四年一直处于过剩状态。 该公司表示，明年的过剩量预估也上调了一倍多，从之前的130,000吨上调至275,000吨。 Nornickel表示，除投资需求外，预计钯金市场今年将平衡。 而包括投资需求在内，钯金市场则会供应短缺20万盎司，公司称。 Nornickel称，2026年，除了投资活动以外，钯金市场将出现10万盎司的供应短缺。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nornickel has significantly revised its nickel supply surplus forecasts for this year and 2026, indicating a substantial increase in expected supply due to rising production in Indonesia [1] Nickel Market Summary - Nornickel has raised its forecast for this year's nickel supply surplus to 240,000 tons, up from the previous estimate of 120,000 tons made in July [1] - The company has also increased its 2026 supply surplus forecast to over 270,000 tons, more than double the earlier prediction [1] - The global nickel market has been in a state of surplus for the past four years, primarily driven by the rapid increase in supply from Indonesia [1] Palladium Market Summary - Nornickel expects the palladium market to remain balanced this year without considering investment demand [1] - If investment demand is taken into account, a supply shortfall of 200,000 ounces is anticipated in the palladium market [1] - For 2026, a supply shortfall of 100,000 ounces is projected in the palladium market, excluding investment activities [1]

早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 银价暴跌，金价跳水 12日晚，现货白银价格盘中涨逾2%，再创历史新高。不过，美股盘中，现货白银突然跳水，一度跌超4%，纽约期银日内大跌5%。 截至发稿，现货白银价格收跌2.56%，现货黄金价格收涨0.44%。COMEX黄金期货收涨0.39%，本周累计上涨2.42%；COMEX白银期货收跌3.88%，本周 累计上涨5.59%。 消息面上，据媒体报道，甲骨文已将为OpenAI开发的部分数据中心完工日期从2027年推迟至2028年。这一消息叠加博通与甲骨文财报不及预期，投资者 对AI热潮的担忧再度加剧，美股科技股承压，多家AI概念的科技巨头股价纷纷下挫。继甲骨文股价周四暴跌后，博通股价也成为关注焦点，跌幅约为 10%。 | Sandisk Corporation | 214.38 | -11.27% | | --- | --- | --- | | US SNDK | | | | 博通 | 364.80 | -10.23% | | US AVGO | | | | 美光科技 | 245.33 | -5.08% | | us MU | | | | 甲骨文 | 192.21 | -3.34% ...

Group 1: Metal Market Performance - The domestic commodity futures market saw a strong performance in the metal sector on December 12, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1513.74 points, up 7.88 points or 0.52% from the previous trading day [1] - Tin prices surged, with Shanghai tin rising 4.54% to over 330,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties in tin-producing regions [2] - Precious metals also experienced significant gains, with silver prices reaching a historical high of over 15,000 yuan per kilogram, influenced by strong demand and market dynamics [3] Group 2: Energy and Chemical Sector Weakness - The energy and chemical sectors faced collective weakness, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropping over 4.55%, marking a significant decline due to increased inventory and weak demand [4] - Oil prices remained under pressure, with the international oil market experiencing a supply surplus, leading to a drop in domestic crude oil prices to their lowest since late October [5] - The red date market also saw a notable decline, with prices falling below 9,000 yuan per ton, attributed to a combination of weak downstream demand and sufficient supply [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have led to a surge in copper prices, nearing historical highs, with other metal prices also rising [1] - China's commitment to maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures supports copper prices, alongside a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion [1] - Copper prices have increased over 30% this year, driven by loose monetary policies and supply constraints, with concerns over copper supply shortages outside the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysts predict a potential 450,000-ton deficit in global refined copper supply by 2026, partly due to U.S. stockpiling [3] - ING's report indicates a "tight balance" in the copper market, with prices expected to remain above $11,000 per ton, contingent on Chinese demand [3] - Citi and JPMorgan have joined the bullish outlook, with Citi forecasting an average copper price of $13,000 per ton in Q2, while JPMorgan anticipates prices reaching $12,500 per ton by Q2 2026 [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expresses caution, suggesting that the recent rise above $11,000 per ton may be temporary, driven more by future expectations than current fundamentals [4] - Macquarie Group analysts expect copper prices to remain volatile but believe prices above $11,000 per ton are unsustainable due to a lack of physical market tightness [4]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market is showing a mixed pattern, with certain metal varieties performing strongly, particularly silver, which has reached a new historical high [1] - The strong performance of the silver market is closely related to tight spot supply, with high open interest in silver futures indicating a "short squeeze" logic due to low inventory [3] - The World Silver Association predicts a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [3] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut already priced in, and attention on guidance for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [4] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's gold reserves reported at 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a month-on-month increase for the 13th consecutive month [4] - In October, global central bank demand for gold remained strong, with net purchases reaching 53 tons, a 36% month-on-month increase, representing the largest monthly net demand of the year [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车-2025-12-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The proposed merger with Anglo American is seen as a unique opportunity to create a leading copper-focused producer of scale, enhancing Teck's value creation proposition [9][22] - 99.7% of the votes cast in respect of the Class A common shares and 89.7% of the votes cast in respect of the Class B subordinate voting shares were in favor of the arrangement resolution [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The merger is positioned as a natural progression of Teck's strategy, focusing on copper production [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The meeting reported a quorum with 66 shareholders holding 6,329,767 Class A common shares and 343 shareholders holding 380,831,701 Class B subordinate voting shares, representing 81.76% of the total votes [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The merger with Anglo American is part of a broader strategy to advance Teck's operations and market position [9] - The board unanimously supports the transaction, indicating strong internal alignment on strategic direction [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management emphasized the importance of safety and attention in the workplace, highlighting risks associated with distractions [5][6] - The focus on creating a leading copper producer aligns with industry trends and demands for critical minerals [9] Other Important Information - The meeting included a safety share emphasizing the importance of attention in maintaining workplace safety [2][5] - The final results of the vote will be reported in a news release and filed on SEDAR+ [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there any questions regarding the merger? - There were no questions raised during the meeting, indicating shareholder support for the merger [18]