1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data for April shows both highlights and weaknesses. The actual growth is still resilient, the supply - demand relationship is stable, and consumption recovery exceeds expectations. However, fixed - asset investment growth is low, the real estate market is weak, and the price center remains low [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak due to the continuous expectation of oversupply and the decline in costs. The price of most commodities has different trends, such as gold in shock adjustment, copper supported by inventory decline, etc. [10][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - The six - caliber data in April (industry, service, export, social retail, investment, real estate sales) are lower than the previous values. There are three highlights: strong actual growth, stable supply - demand, and faster - than - expected consumption recovery. There are also three weaknesses: low fixed - asset investment, weak real estate, and low price center [8]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - Supply shows no significant reduction, with the weekly output rising to 16,630 tons and the开工 rate reaching 48%. Demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from slight destocking to restocking, with the SMM weekly inventory at 132,000 tons. The price of lithium ore has dropped rapidly, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in shock adjustment, and silver is in shock decline. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][19][21]. 3.2.3 Copper - The decline in internal and external inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 1. There are macro and micro news, such as Fed officials' attitude towards interest rates and new cooperation in the copper industry [23][25]. 3.2.4 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound shock, and alumina should pay attention to the impact of the ore end. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][26][28]. 3.2.5 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure at the upper level. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [29][30]. 3.2.6 Lead - Lead is in range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [32][33]. 3.2.7 Tin - Tin is in narrow - range shock. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are macro and industry news [35][36][38]. 3.2.8 Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward drive. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. There are news about Indonesia's policy adjustment on nickel products and the production progress of nickel - related projects [40][45]. 3.2.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has upstream复产 and oversupply, and polysilicon has a weak fundamental and downward - driving disk. The trend intensities are - 2 and - 1 respectively. There is news about the US anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on metal silicon [50][52]. 3.2.10 Iron Ore - The short - term bullish factors are realized, and the upward drive slows down. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of relevant contracts and spot prices have changed, and there is news about real estate investment [53][54]. 3.2.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are in weak shock due to the continuous decline of raw materials. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about steel production [56][58]. 3.2.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon may have a cost decline and wide - range shock, and silicomanganese is supported by the spot price and in wide - range shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about the iron alloy market [59][61]. 3.2.13 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is in weak shock with the decline of molten iron. Coke is also in shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about coal prices and warehouse receipts [63][66]. 3.2.14 Steam Coal - Steam coal has an increase in coal mine inventory and is in weak shock. The trend intensity is 0. There are quotes for domestic and foreign steam coal and information on positions [67][69]. 3.2.15 Logs - Logs are in weak shock [70].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-20 国内经济数据表现相对稳定 铜价震荡回升 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-05-19，沪铜主力合约开于 77920元/吨，收于 77820元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.41%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 77,980元/吨，收于 77,160 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.54%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日早盘持货商报主流平水铜升水420-450元/吨，豫光、铁峰、金冠等升水400元/吨附近；常州地区 价格于380-400元/吨；部分红鹭等货源升水350-360元/吨。日内虽铜价下跌但成交情绪不佳，江苏地区存在杆厂减 产令市场采购活跃度降低至2.75，北方炼厂检修发货较少，出货情绪指数降至3.07。 因目前大量交割仓单仍未流 出，市场流通货源偏紧，持货商持有主流平水铜货源低价出货意愿较低。预计今日将有仓单流出对市场升水形成 打击，升水下行。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，在经济数据方面，美国4月谘商会领先指标月率录得-1%，为2023年3月以来最大降幅。而 在联储官员讲话方面，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克重申倾向于今年只降息一次。纽约联储主席 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively due to the better - than - expected China - US trade negotiations. However, different metals have different market outlooks, with copper expected to be volatile and short - term bearish, zinc being bearish, and nickel being in a wide - range oscillation [1][9][89][207]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitored the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, along with their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are bearish due to the digestion of trade negotiation benefits, weak credit data, expected Fed rate cuts, and low consumer confidence. The raw material end is bullish as copper concentrate processing fees are low and port inventories are decreasing. The smelting end is neutral with smelter losses. The demand end is neutral with fluctuating downstream demand. The position and inventory are also neutral [9]. - **Investment View**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and short - term bearish [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bearish for single - side trading, and no arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are neutral with tariff adjustments and economic data. The raw material end is bearish with rising processing fees and increasing port inventories. The smelting end is bearish with expected supply increases. The demand end is bearish as downstream demand weakens in the off - season. The inventory is neutral with potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Investment View**: Bearish on zinc prices, and focus on the sustainability of inventory accumulation [89]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - side trading for single - side trading, and pay attention to far - month reverse arbitrage [89]. 3.4 Nickel (NI) - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors are neutral with mixed market sentiment. The raw material end is bullish with firm nickel ore prices and increasing imports. The smelting end is neutral with high - level production and cost pressures. The demand end is neutral - bearish with high - level stainless steel supply and uncertain demand, and increasing new - energy demand. The inventory is neutral with slightly decreasing but still high inventories [207]. - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a wide range, and pay attention to the cost range of electrowinning nickel [207]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound trading for single - side trading, and wait - and - see for arbitrage [207].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities: - **Positive Trends**: PX, PTA, MEG trend intensities are 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [78]. - **Negative Trends**: Gold, silver, zinc, tin, rubber, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon have negative trend intensities, suggesting a bearish view [22][31][38][81]. - **Neutral Trends**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and thermal coal have neutral trend intensities [26][29][34][45][55][58][64][67]. 2. Core Views - **US Economic Situation**: The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index hit the second - lowest level on record, and inflation expectations reached multi - decade highs. Tariff concerns and Trump's call for the Fed to cut interest rates are influencing the economic outlook [7][19]. - **Commodity Market Outlook** - **Alkali and Alumina**: Caustic soda is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure later. Alumina had a sharp rebound recently, but the long - term supply - demand surplus pattern may remain [11][12]. - **Metals**: Most metals are in a state of weak or neutral trends. For example, copper lacks driving forces and is in a price - oscillating state, while zinc has a surplus in the long - term and its price is under pressure [24][30]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PX is in a high - level oscillating market with a strong trend, and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA is recommended. MEG remains strong unilaterally [75][77]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Precious Metals** - **Gold and Silver**: Gold broke below the support level, and silver oscillated downward. Their trend intensities are - 1 [20][22]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, and the price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [24][26]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is in a range - bound state, and alumina had a sharp rebound. Their trend intensities are 0 [27][29]. - **Zinc**: There is a long - term surplus, and the price is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [30][31]. - **Lead**: Both supply and demand are weak, and it oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [33][34]. - **Tin**: Narrowly oscillates. The trend intensity is - 1 [36][38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is supported by the contradiction in nickel ore, and stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward - driving forces. Their trend intensities are 0 [40][45]. **Energy - Related Commodities** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: With the decline in hot - metal production, they oscillate widely. Their trend intensities are 0 [60][64]. - **Thermal Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increases, and it oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [65][67]. **Chemical Commodities** - **Caustic Soda**: Volatile in the short term and under pressure later. The downstream restocking situation determines its rebound sustainability [11]. - **Alumina**: Had a sharp rebound due to short - term supply - demand tightness, but the long - term surplus pattern may not change [12]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX is in a high - level oscillating market and is recommended for a long - short strategy against PTA. PTA is in a de - stocking pattern, and MEG remains strong unilaterally [75][77]. - **Rubber**: Oscillates weakly. The trend intensity is - 1 [79][81]. **Lithium - Related Commodities** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continues to decline, and the trend is bearish. The trend intensity is - 1 [46][49]. **Industrial and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both are in a weak state, with negative trend intensities [50][52]. **Steel Products** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Raw materials continue to decline, and they oscillate weakly. Their trend intensities are 0 [53][55]. **Ferroalloys** - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Oscillate widely. Their trend intensities are 0 [56][58].

2025-5-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 铜周报：中美关税降温，铜价走势仍强 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 上周沪铜偏强震荡，截至上周五收至78140元/吨，周涨幅0.89%。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明互降关税，同时美国通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价有所提振。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 24-03-20 24-03-28 24-04-09 24-04-17 24-04-25 24-05-08 24-05-16 24-05-24 24-06-03 24-06-12 24-06-20 24-06-28 24-07-08 24-07-16 24-07-24 24-08-01 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a combination of "strong current situation + weak expectation". The short - term price is likely to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to range between 77,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. The macro - level factors and the uncertainty of demand in the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the inventory reduction and the easing of tariff sentiment support the price, but the expected weakening of demand and the decline in cost put pressure on the price. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate [3]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price may be supported by the easing of tariff signals. In the future, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies, or maintain a high - level oscillation if the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption exceeds expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The macro - sentiment improvement may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply - side restoration and the pessimistic demand expectation, short - selling can be attempted in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply - side raw material restoration rhythm [7]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The main contract price is expected to range between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to fluctuate. The raw - material end provides some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. The main contract price is expected to range between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price is expected to show a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is relatively flat, and the inventory is still high. The main contract price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: Most copper prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 78,155 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 11.54% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the import volume in March increased by 15.24%. The domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum prices generally increased, with SMM A00 aluminum at 20,010 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The import loss and the spreads between some contracts changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production changed. The开工 rates of some aluminum products also changed, and the inventories at home and abroad decreased [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices decreased slightly, with SMM 0 zinc ingot at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The import loss increased, and the spreads between some contracts decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the import volume in March increased by 9.47%. The开工 rates of downstream industries increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: Tin prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 tin at 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, the tin ore import decreased, while the refined tin production and import increased. The inventories of some varieties decreased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: Nickel prices decreased, with SMM 1 electrolytic nickel at 124,950 yuan/ton, down 1.79%. The import loss decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the Chinese refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and the import volume decreased by 68.84%. The inventories at home and abroad changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: Stainless - steel prices were slightly adjusted, with the 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) at 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spreads between some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the 300 - series stainless - steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and the export volume increased by 70.98%. The inventories changed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: Lithium carbonate prices were mostly stable, with SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spreads between some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the lithium carbonate production decreased, while the demand increased. The inventory increased, and the开工 rate increased [14].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 贸易商收货兴趣浓厚 铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-05-13，沪铜主力合约开于 78080元/吨，收于 78090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.22%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 77,930元/吨，收于 78,650 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.99%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日日内成交活跃度较高，早盘盘初低价可注册仓单货源被大量秒收，大型贸易商收货情绪浓厚， 采购情绪指数为3.18，较昨日上升0.13；因换月前持续贴水，部分持货商不愿低价出售，宁愿作为仓单交割，故销 售情绪指数较昨日降低0.02，录得3.25。进入主流交易时段，货源如铁峰、日本、韩国、中条山PC等成交积极，后 续均被接货方加价出售。进入第二交易时段，市场出货价格上抬至贴水30元/吨附近，好铜重现升水成交。湿法铜 仅少量mook货源贴水70元/吨附近，非注册货源贴水180至贴水120元/吨均有成交。 进入交割倒计时，昨日仓单增 量较少，但贸易商收货情绪抬升预计仓单量将逐渐增加。今日现货贴水或保持坚挺。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，美国消费者价格指数 ...

| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, initiated by former President Trump, which has led to dramatic fluctuations in copper prices and inventory movements in the global market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Market Reactions - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which quickly raised domestic prices [1]. - Following this, on February 26, the U.S. government extended tariffs to copper, marking it as a new battleground in the trade war [1][2]. - By March 4, the COMEX-LME copper price spread surged to $950/ton, prompting traders to transfer LME Asian inventories to the U.S., with a single-day drop of 9,050 tons in LME Asian inventory [1][2]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Inventory Changes - On March 13, copper prices soared to $5.25/pound (approximately $11,574/ton), a 25% increase from the 2024 average, while U.S. copper imports surged to 500,000 tons, far exceeding the normal level of 70,000 tons [2]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 12%, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches [2]. - After the unexpected exemption of copper products from tariffs on April 2, copper prices corrected downward, reaching a low of $8,105/ton amid fears of a global recession [2]. Group 3: Future Implications and Strategic Moves - The U.S. Department of Commerce is set to submit a report on copper tariffs by November 22, 2025, with a final decision expected by March 30, 2026, creating uncertainty in the copper market [3]. - As of May 12, COMEX copper inventory reached 163,400 tons, a six-year high, while LME inventory fell to 190,700 tons, indicating a significant shift in global copper stockpiles [3]. - The COMEX-LME price spread peaked at $1,643/ton on March 26, reflecting the market's volatility due to tariff uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The article highlights the U.S. strategy to manipulate global copper trade through tariffs, aiming to force the return of copper-related manufacturing to the U.S. and curb China's copper industry growth [3][4]. - The relationship between U.S. manufacturing and copper prices is noted, with a strong correlation between China's manufacturing activity and copper prices, as China accounts for 56% of global refined copper consumption [6][7]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff strategies are seen as part of a broader effort by the U.S. to maintain its economic dominance amid rising competition from China [6][18].

内容概要：近年来，鹰潭市聚焦"走在前、勇争先、善作为"的目标要求，认真落实"1269"行动计划，大 力实施工业强市战略，全力打造国家级先进铜功能材料及高端应用集群，深入推进制造业数字化转型， 培育发展新质生产力，加速推进新型工业化。作为支柱产业，鹰潭市铜产业规模不断壮大，2024年，鹰 潭市铜产业实现营业收入突破4600亿元，电解铜产量、铜加工材产量均居全国第一。高端化、智能化、 绿色化转型取得明显成效，电子信息（物联网）产业、精密制造产业创新能力不断提升。 上市企业：三川智慧（300066）、江西铜业（600362） 相关企业：江西水晶光电有限公司、江西弘信柔性电子科技有限公司、江西晶创科技有限公司、江西成 明电子科技有限公司、江西鑫铂瑞科技股份有限公司、江西明鸿光电科技有限公司、鹰潭道朴智能科技 有限责任公司、江西水晶光电有限公司、江西弘信柔性电子科技有限公司、江西晶创科技有限公司、江 西成明电子科技有限公司、江西鑫铂瑞科技股份有限公司、江西明鸿光电科技有限公司、鹰潭道朴智能 科技有限责任公司 一、鹰潭市宏观经济分析 鹰潭市，江西省辖地级市，是长江中游城市群重要成员。2024年，鹰潭市经济运行稳中有进，主 ...