智通财经APP讯， 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)发布公告，公司股票连续三个交易日内(2025年9月29日、2025年 9月30日、2025年10月9 日)日收盘价格涨跌幅偏离值累计达到+20%，根据《深圳证券交易所交易规则》 的相关规定，属于股票交易异常波动的情况。 近期，公司主产品中阴极铜和黄金的市场价格累计涨幅较大，铜精矿加工费低位运行。 公司、控股股东和实际控制人目前不存在关于公司的应披露而未披露的重大事项，或处于筹划阶段的重 大事项。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][39]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures was mainly in an upward trend, with a price range of about 79,390 yuan/ton to 83,820 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,843 - 10,485 US dollars/ton [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Uncertainty in Fed Rate Cuts - There is a continuous debate within the Fed regarding the magnitude and speed of interest rate adjustments. Among 19 Fed officials, 10 think "there will be two or more rate cuts this year", while the other 9 believe there will be one more rate cut or even no more cuts. The probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10][11][13]. 2.2 Year - on - Year Growth in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above the National Scale - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.7% [16][17]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Continuous and Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 28, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.02 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 40.3 US dollars/kiloton [20]. 3.2 Continuous Narrowing of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper - As of September 26, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 82,510 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 75,050 yuan/ton, with a price difference of - 45 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14% [27]. 5. Inventory Side - As of September 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,034 tons, a decrease of 3,745 tons from the previous week. As of September 29, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 6.72%. The COMEX copper inventory was 323,207 tons, an increase of 923 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous week [32]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory. Chinese economic policies and US policies have a high impact, with the key points being the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits and the uncertainty of the Fed's continued rate cuts. Supply factors such as the low level of refined copper processing fees and the year - on - year growth of copper production also have an impact, as do demand factors like the accelerated growth of power grid investment and the growth of copper product output. The continuous and significant accumulation of COMEX copper inventory also affects prices [38]. 6.2 Outlook - Given the macro - environment, supply, demand, and inventory situations, the copper price may show a mainly oscillating and slightly stronger trend. The price fluctuation is small, and the arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [39].

消息面上，近日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业 当下最突出的问题。中国大冶有色金属上半年收入减少超10%，主要由于受国内外冶炼产能集中加速释 放和铜精矿供应紧张的双向作用，冶炼加工费持续低位运行，及企业产品产量减少。 来源：智通财经网 中国大冶有色金属(00661)再涨近25%，近九个交易日累计涨幅已超144%。截至发稿，涨19.82%，报 0.133港元，成交额3355.06万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 25%, with a cumulative rise of over 144% in the past nine trading days, indicating strong market interest and volatility in the sector [1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, the stock price is at 0.133 HKD, with a trading volume of 33.55 million HKD [1] - The company experienced a revenue decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, attributed to the dual impact of accelerated release of domestic and foreign smelting capacity and tight copper concentrate supply [1] - The processing fees for copper concentrate have remained at low levels, which has negatively affected the company's financial performance [1] Industry Summary - The recent meeting of the Copper Industry Association highlighted the issue of "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry, which has led to persistently low processing fees for copper concentrates [1] - The tight supply of copper concentrates and reduced production output are currently the most prominent challenges facing the industry [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (02727) surged by 15.72%, with its A-shares hitting the daily limit, driven by positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as domestic supply chain localization accelerates, with local foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 11%, being a leading copper smelting company in China, with a potential resumption of production at a copper mine owned by First Quantum [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 8%, as cobalt prices surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) jumped 26% following HSBC's recommendation to privatize the bank [1] - Solar stocks saw gains in early trading, with prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continuing to rise in September, particularly in upstream sectors [1] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" railway development planning [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the overseas debut of its Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, making a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with several constituent stocks like Innovent Biologics (09969) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177) experiencing declines of over 6% [3] - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its yearly high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [3]

今日， $江西铜业股份 (00358.HK)$ 股价涨超7%，8月初至今累涨近140%。截至发稿，涨7.61%，报37.88港元，成交额12.76亿港元。 消息面上，Grasberg铜矿停产事件预计将导致2025年四季度至2026年间铜供应缺口进一步扩大。此外，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼 行业"内卷式"竞争。机构称，冶炼产能过剩未来有望缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。公开资料显示，江西铜业为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能达 210万吨，铜业务收入占比超70%。 江西铜业A股涨停，最新报39.04元。 值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道，巴拿马正准备与第一量子矿业公司就可能重启其关闭的科布雷巴拿马铜矿展开谈判，预计该矿将于今年年底或2026年初重 启。据悉，江西铜业股份是第一量子最大股东，自2024年开始，江西铜业将持有的第一量子投资由金融工具投资转换为长期股权投资权益法核算。如果巴拿 马铜矿复产，将显著增厚公司利润。 编辑/KOKO ...

值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道，巴拿马正准备与第一量子矿业公司就可能重启其关闭的科布雷巴拿马 铜矿展开谈判，预计该矿将于今年年底或2026年初重启。据悉，江西铜业股份是第一量子最大股东，自 2024年开始，江西铜业将持有的第一量子投资由金融工具投资转换为长期股权投资权益法核算。如果巴 拿马铜矿复产，将显著增厚公司利润。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)再涨近8%，8月初至今累涨近140%。截至发稿，涨6.14%，报37.36港 元，成交额12.04亿港元。 消息面上，Grasberg铜矿停产事件预计将导致2025年四季度至2026年间铜供应缺口进一步扩大。此外， 中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。机构称，冶炼产能过剩未来有 望缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。公开资料显示，江西铜业为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能 达210万吨，铜业务收入占比超70%。 ...

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) has seen its stock price increase nearly 8%, with a cumulative rise of approximately 140% since early August, currently trading at 37.36 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.204 billion HKD [1] - The suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a widening copper supply gap between Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Branch has expressed strong opposition to "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, indicating that the oversupply of smelting capacity is likely to ease in the future, which may improve profitability for smelting companies [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper is a leading copper smelting company in China, with an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, and copper business revenue accounts for over 70% of its total revenue [1] - Reports indicate that Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals regarding the potential restart of the closed Cobre Panama copper mine, which is expected to resume operations by the end of this year or early 2026 [1] - Jiangxi Copper is the largest shareholder of First Quantum, and starting in 2024, it will convert its investment in First Quantum from a financial instrument to a long-term equity investment accounted for using the equity method, which could significantly enhance the company's profits if the Panama copper mine restarts [1]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 61, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, with a trend towards an upward movement supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [5][8][16]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Artificial Intelligence**: Alibaba's CEO announced significant investments in AI infrastructure, with plans to invest 380 billion yuan, positioning AI as the next generation operating system. Related stocks include Industrial Fulian and Zhongji Xuchuang [5]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: The delay in the reopening of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to landslides has raised concerns over copper supply, pushing international copper prices higher. The domestic copper smelting industry is facing low processing fees, prompting calls for self-discipline in production cuts. Related stocks include Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [5]. - **Energy Storage**: The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment. Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%. Overseas orders for energy storage are projected to increase by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Related stocks include CATL and Sungrow Power Supply [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include GoerTek, Shanzhi Gaoke, and Changying Precision, with inflows of 970.41 million yuan, 755.24 million yuan, and 632.71 million yuan respectively [9][10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Huayou Cobalt and Fangzheng Technology, with net buys of 425.94 million yuan and 383.17 million yuan respectively [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Lingyi iTech and Xinyi Technology, with outflows of -2.07 billion yuan and -1.87 billion yuan respectively [12]. Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing upward price movements due to supply concerns and competitive pressures within the domestic copper smelting sector [5]. - The energy storage sector is poised for growth driven by government policies and increasing demand for capacity, with significant investments expected [5].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 0.48% to close at 26,829.46 points, while the total trading volume reached 173.8 billion HKD [1] - The market is expected to enter a "low season" due to the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, compounded by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government's short-term financing plan [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Geely Automobile (00175) saw a notable increase of 3.36%, closing at 19.67 HKD, contributing 6.07 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback plan worth up to 2.3 billion HKD, indicating management's belief that the stock is undervalued [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Hengan International (01044) up 3.46%, NetEase-S (09999) up 2.92%, while Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) and CNOOC (00883) saw declines of 1.7% and 1.39%, respectively [2] Sector Performance Gold Stocks - Gold stocks performed strongly, with several companies reaching new highs. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose 13.26%, China Silver Group (00815) increased by 12.5%, and Shandong Gold (01787) was up 7.61% [3] - Spot gold prices surpassed 4,000 USD per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 1,400 USD per ounce, or over 52% [3] Cryptocurrency Stocks - Cryptocurrency-related stocks faced declines, with Boyaa Interactive (00434) down 8.48% and Okcoin Chain (01499) down 7.69%. The drop in Bitcoin futures contributed to the negative sentiment in this sector [4] Cloud Computing Stocks - Cloud computing stocks were negatively impacted by disappointing profit margins reported by Oracle's cloud business, with Mingyuan Cloud (00909) down 4.92% and Alibaba-W (09988) down 1.61% [4][5] Notable Stock Movements - Changfeng Pharmaceutical (02652) debuted with a significant increase of 161.02%, closing at 38.5 HKD, following a successful IPO [7] - Xinjiang Xin Mining (03833) continued its upward trend, closing up 16.88% at 3.6 HKD, driven by plans to issue A-shares [7] Industry Developments - The U.S. government is actively working to rebuild its rare earth industry, with discussions to invest in Critical Metals, which could provide direct ownership of Greenland's largest rare earth project [8] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) reached a new high, closing up 6.02% at 35.2 HKD, amid expectations of a copper supply shortage due to the Grasberg mine's shutdown [9]