ing gov 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/11/20 | 4067. 10 | 51. 15 | 4066. 20 | 50. 85 | 932. 56 | 12046.00 | 930. 20 | 12040.00 | | (本表数 | 2025/11/19 | 409 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the unexpected increase in US non - farm payroll data has reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, leading to a decline in all three major US stock indexes [1][2][3] - The domestic market is operating with shrinking volume, with the trading volume of the two markets dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to take over is limited, and the sustainability of sectoral market trends is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the index at the lower edge of the box [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The content includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76% to 12980.82 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.12% to 3042.34 points, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to 4564.95 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.40% to 3008.29 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.85% to 7061.95 points, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.63% to 7340.41 points [13] - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: For IF, the trading volume was 128,286 (an increase of 5,673), and the open interest was 277,884 (an increase of 5,717); for IH, the trading volume was 58,076 (an increase of 4,537), and the open interest was 97,775 (an increase of 2,538); for IC, the trading volume was 137,568 (an increase of 4,976), and the open interest was 255,979 (an increase of 7,467); for IM, the trading volume was 211,533 (a decrease of 15,934), and the open interest was 361,945 (a decrease of 2,194) [16] - **Stock Index Futures Basis (Futures - Spot)**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 6.95 (a decrease of 2.06), the next - month contract was - 25.75 (a decrease of 2.66), the current - quarter contract was - 58.75 (a decrease of 2.66), and the next - quarter contract was - 103.95 (a decrease of 4.66); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.31 (an increase of 2.66), the next - month contract was - 5.69 (an increase of 3.66), the current - quarter contract was - 12.69 (an increase of 1.26), and the next - quarter contract was - 23.09 (an increase of 1.06); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.45 (an increase of 7.60), the next - month contract was - 61.95 (an increase of 6.00), the current - quarter contract was - 240.55 (an increase of 6.80), and the next - quarter contract was - 446.95 (an increase of 11.80); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 7.19 (an increase of 4.00), the next - month contract was - 76.81 (an increase of 12.20), the current - quarter contract was - 305.21 (an increase of 13.20), and the next - quarter contract was - 533.41 (an increase of 15.20) [39] - **Stock Index Futures Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the differences between the next - month and current - month, next - quarter and current - month, etc. [46][48]

1. Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4090.60 with a change of -36.35 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 50.85 with a change of -1.35 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1557.00 with a change of 23.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1408.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 59.44 with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10759.00 with a change of 17.00 [1] - The latest US Dollar Index is 100.22 with a change of 0.09 [1] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.15 with no change [1] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.31 with no change [1] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 157.46 with a change of 0.28 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.86 with no change [1] 2. Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 14367.02 with a change of -19.27 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory is 535.09 with a change of -12.60 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 1039.43 with a change of -4.29 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15246.63 with a change of 19.75 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 830.31 with no change [1] - The SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction has no change of 0.00 [1] - The SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction has a change of 1.00 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - BCA Research warns that the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months, advising investors to be neutral in the short - term and underweight stocks in the medium - term, and to focus on forward - looking indicators such as analyst expectations and GPU costs [2] - Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI - driven power consumption growth is accelerating, and leading power equipment companies' order backlogs are 2.5 to 2.8 times their revenues, with profitability visibility locked until 2027 - 2028. Asian and Chinese companies with cost advantages and delivery capabilities may gain more market share and enjoy higher overseas profits [2][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures was 22,420 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at $2,990.5/ton, up 0.03%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc futures was 91,247 lots, down 2,222 lots, and the LME zinc trading volume was 14,603 lots, up 3,454 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc futures was 67,487 lots, down 14,839 lots, and the LME zinc open interest was 224,451 lots, down 3,059 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was $129.76/ton, up $29.76/ton. The import bill of lading premium was $135/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 75,314 tons, down 1,473 tons; LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, up 1,550 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 3,525 tons, up 100 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 23,736 tons, up 921 tons [1] - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,095 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] [News] - **AI Bubble Warning**: BCA Research analyzed four capital expenditure booms and summarized five collapse rules. The current AI boom shows warning signs, and the AI bubble may burst within 6 to 12 months [2] - **Power Equipment Market**: Morgan大通 believes the power equipment bull market is in the early to mid - stage. AI drives power consumption growth, leading to supply - demand imbalance. Asian and Chinese enterprises may benefit [2][3] [Trend Intensity] - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整回落，美联储官员内部分歧加剧，12降息概率预期已低于5成。"新美联储通讯 社"表示，不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票，其中明确支持降息的为特朗普任命的三 位理事，反对降息的为四位地方联储官员，而作为美联储副主席的杰斐逊，通常会支持主席鲍威尔的立场。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4045.1美元/盎司，-1.2%；美白银2512合约收报于50.05美元/盎 司，-1.25%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收929.46元/克，-3.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收11933元/千 克，-4.08%。 南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：12月降息预期分歧大 贵金属延续调整回 落 【降息预期与基金持仓】 12月降息预期摇摆不定。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率57.1%，降 息25个基点的概率为42.9%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率35.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.2%， 累计降息50个基点的概率1 ...

这场由证券时报社主办的年度金融盛会，将汇聚来自银行、证券、保险、信托、期货等领域的数百位行业领袖，通过 六大专业论坛，共同探寻金融业高质量发展新路径。 很轻巅 分 万博3C合议 作者 ad 证券出版 ( ) 2000 0 图画照APP 图画家号 今日头条 0 微视 sino MANE O MM 4 en 网易新闻 KE 11月19-20日 中国·深圳 会议议程 11月19日 周三 9号馆 活动A区 09:00-10:20 ● 第十九届深圳国际金融博览会 2025金融科技大会开幕式 10:30-11:30 ● 2025中国金融机构年会 9号馆 活动B区 金融精英汇聚鹏城，行业领袖共议金融强国建设！ 11月的深圳，风起南海，潮涌珠江。这座将举办2026年APEC会议的创新之都，即将迎来一场金融界的思想盛宴——第 十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会将于11月19日至21日在深圳会展中心(福田)隆重举行，这也是两大 品牌活动首次强强联合。 13:30-17:30 ● 2025中国金融机构年会 暨2025中国银行业年会 11月20日 周四 9号馆 活动B区 09:30-11:40 ● 2025中国金融机 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for financial institutions to enhance their services to support the high-quality development of the real economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are urged to improve the precision, adaptability, and accessibility of their services, focusing on key areas and weak links in the real economy [2] - Regional banks should adjust their credit and customer strategies towards intelligent, green, and integrated directions, accelerating digital transformation to create competitive advantages [2] - The futures and securities industries are presented with development opportunities, with the futures sector encouraged to implement scenario-based services to enhance price discovery and risk management [2] Group 2: Risk Management - Financial institutions must maintain a risk baseline while serving the real economy, employing early identification and warning systems for risk management [3] - City commercial banks should respect risks but not fear development, balancing risk and return through technology empowerment and compliance culture [3] - The futures industry should establish integrated risk warning mechanisms to preemptively address systemic risks [3] Group 3: Innovative Financial Products and Services - The "five major articles" of financial work emphasize technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as core strategies for financial institutions [4] - Construction Bank has developed a comprehensive technology finance service system, including products that cater to different growth stages of enterprises [4] - Regional banks are launching tailored products to address local needs, such as order financing and pollution rights pledge loans, to support small and micro enterprises [4][5] Group 4: Industry Empowerment - Financial institutions are transitioning from traditional credit providers to industry enablers, particularly in the context of the Xiong'an New Area's development [4] - Supply chain financial products are being utilized to extend services to upstream and downstream SMEs, integrating various financial services [5] - Futures and securities firms are playing a crucial role in managing risks within the industrial chain, responding to the increasing demand for risk management from enterprises [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction lies in limited improvement in the spot market, with downstream replenishment falling short of expectations. Caustic soda production remains at a high level, leading to continuous supply pressure. In terms of valuation, the price of liquid chlorine is moderately strong, and the chlor - alkali profit stays at a medium - high level, weakening cost support, and alkali plants have no motivation for active production cuts [3]. - There is still an expectation for the alkali - stocking demand of downstream aluminum plants from November to December, which may support the spot market. However, the production of caustic soda remains high, resulting in significant supply pressure. The spot market improvement is limited, and the delivery volume of major aluminum plants remains high. Also, the caustic - chlorine profit is decent, so alkali plants have no incentive to cut production actively [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.50%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower costs. If the price rises, the selling price of the spot can be locked [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and wishing to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2250) to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH601P2200, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the price drops, the purchase price of the spot can be locked [2]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2438, down 44 (-1.77%) from November 14; the 09 contract was 2525, down 61 (-2.36%); the 01 contract was 2291, down 36 (-1.55%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the 32 - alkali ex - factory price of Shandong Jinling was 2344, down 62.5 (-2.6%) from November 14. The 50 - alkali ex - factory price of Jinling was 2360, down 20 (-0.8%) [5][7]. Price Differences - **Brand/Regional Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the difference between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was 16, up 42.5 from November 14. Other differences such as Jiangsu 49 - alkali minus 32 - alkali remained unchanged [8]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the monthly difference (5 - 9) was - 87, up 17 from November 14; the monthly difference (9 - 1) was 234, down 25; the monthly difference (1 - 5) was - 147, up 8 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The November USDA supply and demand report was less bullish than expected, and the market is expected to correct. The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the domestic market is expected to follow the trend of the US market in the short term. Future attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans and the trend of new - crop basis [10]. - In November, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. - The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [10]. - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On November 14, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 11. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 19, and the M1 - 5 basis increased by 25 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 602, with an increase of 23 [7]. International and Inventory Data - As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week and 53.3% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 54.7% [9]. - The USDA currently estimates the US - soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially having downward adjustment space and the export expectation having upward adjustment space [8]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream transactions of soybean meal in the near term are relatively cautious, and the提货 performance has declined [10].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 11月14日晚间，南华期货发布公告称，美国时间2025年11月13日，公司境外全资孙公司 NanhuaUSALLC收到NodalClear，LLC（简称"NodalClear"）的通知，其获批成为NodalClear清算会员， 具备NodalExchange和CoinbaseDerivatives的清算资格。 ...