该行预期券商板块平均股本回报率(ROE)将于2026年反弹至9%，其中，中信证券及中金公司的ROE分别 有望达10.7%及9.4%，目前预测中金、广发及中信证券的今年投资收入分别增长20%、21%及11%，而 东方财富（300059）(300059.SZ)及招商证券（600999）(06099)今年投资收入则可能录得下跌。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，A股市场日均成交额(ADT)持续高企，目前对全年ADT预测更具信心，将2025 年ADT预测上调53%至1.53万亿元人民币，并预测2026及2027年ADT将保持每年5%至6%的同比增长， 相应将所覆盖中资券商2025至2027年各年盈利预测平均上调25%、23%及20%，相信交投增加可带动经 纪佣金、保证金利息及经营杠杆提升，市场流动性充裕将支持更多融资活动，预料利好中金公司 （601995）(03908)、中信证券（600030）(06030)及广发证券（000776）(01776)等拥有强劲承销、交易 及资产管理业务的券商。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market was relatively stable, with interest rates first declining and then rising. Market sentiment improved in the first half of the week as the market speculated on the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, leading to a decline in interest rates and credit bond yields. In the second half of the week, influenced by factors such as China - US negotiations, there was a slight upward movement. Credit spreads fluctuated slightly overall, with long - term credit spreads rising [2]. - Since the market adjustment began in July, institutional behavior has changed. Large banks have shifted from net selling to net buying of interest - rate bonds, mainly focusing on varieties with a maturity of less than 5 years. Funds and securities firms have sold more long - term interest - rate bonds, with relatively scattered buyers. For credit bonds, the net buying of wealth management products, insurance, and other product categories has been relatively stable. State - owned banks' purchase of short - term interest - rate bonds also contributes to short - end stability. The trading volume of long - term credit bonds has significantly decreased recently. It is speculated that the inflection point of the continuous upward trend of long - term credit bond yields is approaching [3]. - Compared with the year - to - date low in early July, the yields of medium - and long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 4 years and above have increased significantly. Compared with the high point in March, the yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years have declined by more than 10bp, and the yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are slightly higher than the year - to - date high. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there is limited room for a significant reduction in credit bond spreads, but the stability of the short end is highly certain [4]. - Considering the current low funding rates, weak fundamentals, and the strong volatility - resistance ability of short - term bonds, short - term bonds with a maturity of around 2 years have good investment value. Currently, the price - ratio of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - Yong Bonds) to medium - term notes has reverted to the mean, reducing their trading value. Their future performance mainly depends on interest - rate trends. If interest rates decline, there is still room for further decline. The trading volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds has decreased significantly, and the yields of some varieties have exceeded the year - to - date high, making them suitable for allocation. However, for trading - oriented institutions, especially those with less stable liability ends, the trading opportunities in the fourth quarter are limited, and it is advisable to wait appropriately. For allocation - oriented institutions, they can gradually start allocating [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Institutional Behavior and Point Observation 3.1.1 What are the characteristics of institutional behavior? - Since July, large banks have increased their net buying of interest - rate bonds, while funds and securities firms have increased their net selling. Large banks are more inclined to buy short - term interest - rate bonds rather than long - term ones. There is a mismatch in the maturity between the purchasing willingness of large banks and the selling willingness of funds and securities firms, which will affect the market trend. For credit bonds, the overall behavior is relatively stable. The net buying of insurance, wealth management products, and other product categories is relatively stable, while the selling of securities firms, city commercial banks, and joint - stock commercial banks is also relatively stable. Large banks' selling has decreased since July. The net buying of rural commercial banks in the secondary market of credit bonds has remained at a good level, but the overall volume is limited. Since the bond market adjustment in July, funds' demand for long - term credit bonds has weakened significantly, and they have continuously sold long - term credit bonds. Insurance's net buying of long - term credit bonds has declined to a relatively low level in recent weeks [10][14][18]. 3.1.2 Credit bond point observation - Compared with the year - to - date high on March 18, the current credit bond yields are still lower. Yields of bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years are about 30bp lower, those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years are about 20bp lower, and those with a maturity of more than 5 years are only about 5bp lower. Credit spreads are significantly lower than the high point in March, with spreads of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years being about 20bp lower. Compared with the low point on July 7, the short - end adjustment of bonds with a maturity of 2 years and below is relatively small, while the adjustment of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years is particularly large. The weak fundamentals and relatively loose funding rates provide a stable foundation for the short end. The relatively stable purchasing power of important buyers of credit bonds, such as insurance and wealth management products, and large banks' preference for short - term interest - rate bonds also indirectly support credit bonds [22][26][30]. 3.1.3 Investment thinking and suggestions for the portfolio - From the perspectives of the funding situation, institutional behavior, and anti - decline ability, appropriate credit risk - taking in short - term credit bonds is still worthy of attention. Currently, the volume of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years, a valuation of more than 2.1%, and an implicit rating of AA(2) and above exceeds 1 trillion yuan. The price - ratio of Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has reverted to around 0, reducing their trading value. Their future performance depends on interest - rate trends. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds are close to the year - to - date high, and the trading volume has dropped to a low point. They have allocation value, and allocation - oriented institutions can gradually allocate [32][34][37]. 3.2 What to buy in credit? 3.2.1 It is recommended to focus on high - grade Two - Yong Bonds - This week, the price - ratio of AAA Two - Yong Bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly. The price - ratio of 5 - year AAA - rated Tier 2 capital bonds to 5 - year AAA medium - term notes has dropped by more than 5bp this week. The price - ratio of short - term urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has declined significantly and is close to the year - to - date low, with relatively low cost - effectiveness. The price - ratio of long - term weak - quality urban investment bonds to medium - term notes has increased recently and is currently positive [41][43]. 3.2.2 Focus on high - coupon assets with a maturity of around 2 years - Currently, the proportion of urban investment bonds with a valuation of more than 2.2% is 38.6%, that of non - financial industrial bonds is 26.1%, and that of Two - Yong Bonds is 34.7%. Bonds with a maturity of around 2 years and a valuation of more than 2.2% have good value. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on bonds with a maturity of around 2 years issued by entities such as Xi'an High - tech Holdings Co., Ltd., Henan Airport Group Investment Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. For industrial bonds, it is recommended to focus on 2 - year bonds of important local state - owned real - estate enterprises and 2 - year or less bonds of non - real - estate industrial entities [45][47][49]. 3.3 Market Review: Yields Fluctuated 3.3.1 How was the market performance? - This week, credit bond yields fluctuated, with long - term yields generally rising and some bonds with a maturity of 7 years and above adjusting by more than 3bp, while short - term Two - Yong Bonds generally declined. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing significantly, and spreads of ultra - short - term bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year generally decreasing by more than 4bp. From a daily perspective, yields fluctuated upward this week, showing a V - shaped trend. Credit spreads also showed a divergent trend, with short - term spreads decreasing on Mondays and Fridays and long - term spreads widening significantly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays [51][55][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance's allocation strength declined, and funds turned to net buying - The scale of insurance companies' credit bond allocation decreased compared with the previous week. This week, the net buying scale of insurance was 8.092 billion yuan, a 36.8% decrease from the previous week. The net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years was 2.204 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the增持 strength. Funds turned to net buying. This week, funds net - bought 6.331 billion yuan of credit bonds, mainly focusing on bonds with a maturity of 1 - 5 years, with an增持 scale of 11.869 billion yuan. However, they still continued to net - sell ultra - long - term bonds, selling 2.938 billion yuan this week. The scale of wealth management products remained basically the same as last week. As of September 14, the scale of bank wealth management products was 31.07 trillion yuan. The allocation strength of wealth management products was stable, and the allocation strength of other product categories increased slightly. This week, the增持 scale of wealth management products in credit bonds was 20.32 billion yuan, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week. The net buying scale of other products was 13.386 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase from the previous week [58][60][63]. 3.3.3 Transaction proportion: The proportion of transactions within 1 year remains low - The proportion of medium - and short - term transactions (within 3 years) of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds remains relatively high, and the proportion of transactions of Two - Yong Bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years is still not low, indicating that general credit bonds are shortening their duration, and Two - Yong Bonds still have strong trading characteristics [67].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has seen significant inflows into ETFs, with a total net inflow exceeding 28.6 billion yuan over the past week, driven by strong market sentiment and sector performance, particularly in AI and new energy sectors [1][2]. Fund Flows - The total net inflow into stock ETFs last week was 71.24 billion yuan, with A-share stock ETFs contributing 38.42 billion yuan [3]. - Industry-themed ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflows, with net inflows of 35.02 billion yuan and 31.71 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The broad-based ETFs experienced a decrease in scale, with a reduction of 47.23 billion yuan [5]. Sector Performance - The securities ETF saw a net inflow of nearly 48 billion yuan, with the brokerage ETF contributing close to 23 billion yuan [7]. - The robot ETF from E Fund had a net inflow of over 20 billion yuan last week, indicating strong interest in the robotics sector [7]. - The Hong Kong stock ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF, saw significant inflows of 45.69 billion yuan and 18.43 billion yuan, respectively [8]. Specific ETF Insights - The ETF tracking the CSI A500 index had the highest single-day net inflow of 13.8 billion yuan on September 19, while the ETF tracking the Sci-Tech 50 index faced a net outflow of 15.46 billion yuan [5]. - E Fund's ETFs have shown substantial growth, with the total scale reaching 787.66 billion yuan, an increase of 187.01 billion yuan since 2025 [5]. - The human-shaped robot industry is expected to gain more attention as production schedules become clearer in the next 1-2 years, according to E Fund's fund manager [8].

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，A股市场日均成交额(ADT)持续高企，目前对全年ADT预测更具信心，将 2025年ADT预测上调53%至1.53万亿元，并预测2026及2027年ADT将保持每年5%至6%的按年增长，相 应将所覆盖中资券商2025至2027年各年盈利预测平均上调25%、23%及20%。该行相信交投增加可带动 经纪佣金、保证金利息及经营杠杆提升，市场流动性充裕将支持更多融资活动，预料利好中金公司、中 信证券及广发证券等拥有强劲承销、交易及资产管理业务的券商。 该行预期券商板块平均股本回报率(ROE)将于2026年反弹至9%，其中，中信证券及中金公司的ROE分别 有望达10.7%及9.4%，目前预测中金、广发及中信证券的今年投资收入分别增长20%、21%及11%，而 东方财富及招商证券今年投资收入则可能录得下跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Alibaba's Cainiao Group and Xixiangfeng Group aims to enhance urban logistics through digitalization and automation, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in delivery services [1] Company Summary - Xixiangfeng Group's stock rose nearly 8%, reaching HKD 10.7 with a trading volume of HKD 69.34 million following the announcement of the partnership [1] - The collaboration will explore various dimensions including consumer experience optimization, asset management, and financing leasing [1] Industry Summary - According to a report by China Securities, there were 14.59 million urban delivery vehicles in China in 2022, with an estimated annual replacement space of approximately 2.92 million for unmanned delivery vehicles [1] - If the penetration rate of unmanned vehicles reaches 9.5% by 2030, the market space for hardware and software in this sector is projected to reach CNY 37.34 billion [1] - The promotion of unmanned technology is seen as a definitive industry trend, supported by technological maturity, cost reduction, and favorable policies [1]

作为扎根合肥的金融企业，兴泰租赁长期踏实服务区域实体经济，协同华安证券及资管子公司积极构建 多维度的ABS产品矩阵，打通投融资关键环节。本期产品的成功发行，既是兴泰租赁深化知识产权融资 优势、拓展科创企业金融服务的重要实践，也是华安资管在资产证券化领域的专业能力与创新意识的集 中体现。 未来，兴泰租赁将深入推进科创业务转型战略,以创新为核心驱动力持续优化金融服务方案，为中小科 创融资提供更优质高效的服务。华安证券与华安资管将始终坚守金融服务实体经济的初心使命，以"做 好金融五篇大文章"为指引，以专业化、综合化的金融服务推动企业成长，坚守服务实体经济的使命， 为区域经济高质量发展不断注入新动能，展现国企金融机构的担当与作为。（CIS） 9月17日，由华安资管担任计划管理人的华安-兴泰租赁-数据资产助力产业园区科创企业知识产权第二 期资产支持专项计划（科技创新）成功簿记。本期专项计划为全国首单数据资产助力产业园区科创企业 知识产权ABS，开创多维度赋能资产证券化新标杆。 本期专项计划发行规模3.21亿元，优先级票面利率1.86%，创全国知识产权ABS历史最低利率。产品受 到市场广泛关注和投资者踊跃认购，共计为20 ...

证券代码：002736 证券简称：国信证券 编号：2025-004 | 投资者关系活 | □特定对象调研 | | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 | | 业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 | | 路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | | | √其他 | | | | 参与单位名称 | 受邀参加国信证券 | 2025 | 年投资者开放日活动的机构 | | 及人员姓名 | 投资者及分析师 | | | | 时间 | 2025 年 9 月 | 19 日 | 14:30-16:00 | | 地点 | 国信金融大厦 | | | | | 1.张纳沙 | 国信证券 | 党委书记、董事长 | | | 2.邓 舸 | 国信证券 | 党委副书记、董事、总裁 | | | 3.杜海江 | 国信证券 | 党委委员、副总裁 | | 上市公司接待 | 4.鲁 伟 | 国信证券 | 党委委员、副总裁 | | 人员姓名 | 5.周中国 | 国信证券 | 财务负责人 | | | 6.廖锐锋 | 国信证券 | 董事会秘书 | | | 7.吴士荣 | 国信证券 | 首席信 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market may continue to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility should be watched out for. The style may become more balanced in the future, and a defensive allocation is recommended, focusing on opportunities in technology sector rotation, high - dividend, and cyclical sectors. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. - The "watch - the - stock - to - trade - bonds" principle dominates short - term trading, and the bond market is difficult to decline significantly before the stock market cools down [8]. Group 2: Stock Index Strategy Stock Index Trend Review - Last week, the A - share market showed a significant divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index representing large - cap blue - chips fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose. The weakness of financial and real - estate sectors dragged down the Shanghai - related indices, while the growth - style sectors provided support for relevant indices [6]. Technical Analysis - The market maintained a differentiated pattern last week. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong, while the SSE 50 was weak. After a ground - volume rebound on a certain day in August, there was a significant volume decline on Thursday, forming a divergence with the previous up - volume. The short - term profit - taking pressure was prominent [6]. Strategy Outlook - Reasonably control positions and pay attention to policies and sector rotation rhythms [6]. Group 3: Treasury Bond Strategy Treasury Bond Trend Review - The bond market oscillated last week. Although the central bank made a net injection, liquidity did not loosen significantly due to tax - period disturbances. Rumors of the central bank's bond - buying operation and the Fed's interest - rate cut provided some support [9]. Technical Analysis - The T - contract K - line oscillated upwards, with the MACD yellow and white lines intertwined, and the BOLL lines still opening downwards [9]. Strategy Outlook - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is recommended to reduce positions in a timely manner [9]. Group 4: Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Both supply and demand sides weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term factors such as export - expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors like the shrinking real - estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in a certain month dropped to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.8%. The decline was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering revenue, weak sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25]. Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28]. Import and Export - In a certain month, China's exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. The import and export performance was stronger than expected, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [31]. Group 5: Weekly Focus - The report lists a series of US economic indicators to be focused on, including the second - quarter core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditure, real GDP, and initial jobless claims [33].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 时行工作室 9月21日，在上海黄浦江畔的上海国际会议中心，一场汇聚产业与资本顶尖力量的盛会正式拉开大幕。 第三届中国上市公司产业发展论坛在此盛大启幕，以"未来产业与国有资本赋能上市公司"为主题，汇聚 了全国范围内近300家上市公司、250余家国资机构及800位产业与资本领域精英。论坛聚焦前沿科技与 国有资本的深度融合，旨在探索产融结合新范式，为中国上市公司高质量发展注入新动力。 本届论坛由上海市投资促进服务中心、长三角资本市场服务基地、中国（上海）自由贸易试验区管委会 陆家嘴管理局共同指导，中国科技发展基金会、上海天使会、上海市国资国企改革发展研究中心等主 办，财中网等承办，广发证券、东北证券、申万宏源证券、国联民生证券、天风证券协办，并获得上海 市浦东新区投资促进服务中心、上海陆家嘴金融城发展基金会、中国邮政储蓄银行上海虹口支行等支 持。 席、第十三届全国政协常委、上海国研未来产业研究院首席科学家 张勤） 论坛以贯彻国家创新驱动发展战略为核心，积极响应证监会提出的"强化科技创新引领，促进上市公司 质量全面提升"的要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The investment growth rate of the steel industry has declined across the board, leading to an increased expectation of policy easing. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the weakness on the demand side being more evident. It is expected that the short - term steel plate will fluctuate within a narrow range [4][166][167] - For iron ore, the molten iron output continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the demand situation of steel products [169] Summary by Directory Steel Products Price - This week, black - series commodities rose across the board, with coking coal and coke prices leading the increase. The increase of rebar prices was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. In the international market, hot - rolled coil prices in the US, EU, Japan, and India decreased slightly, while most other markets showed a stable - to - rising trend. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as various price spreads, changed to different extents [6][7] Supply - In August, the daily average output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In the current week, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products decreased. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased [42][50][66] Demand - In August, the investment growth rate in the real estate and infrastructure sectors continued to decline, while the growth rate of automobile sales increased, and the growth rate of excavator sales decreased. The national building materials trading volume, cement mill operating rate, and rebar apparent demand increased, while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased [81][88][92] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 137.51 million tons. The total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 184.82 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.74 million tons [124][129][142] Profit - This week, the on - screen profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed, the profits of long - process steelmaking increased, and the losses of short - process steel mills widened [149][151] Trading Data - This week, the positions and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, while the trading volume decreased slightly [152] Options - Data on rebar options, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes, are presented [156][160] Iron Ore Price - This week, the on - screen price of iron ore increased, and the closing price of the main contract i2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices at ports showed mixed trends, with the spread between high - and medium - grade ores widening and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowing [171][177][182] Supply - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 860,000 tons compared with the previous period [170] Demand - The molten iron output increased to 2.4102 million tons, and the pig iron output in August was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [170] Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons compared with the previous period. The steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons, and the consumption ratio of imported ore inventory was 31.2 [170] Profit - The profits of long - process rebar production increased, while the profits of short - process steel mills continued to decline [170]