Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank (BC) has issued new regulations requiring banks and brokerage firms to meet a series of regulatory requirements to engage in cryptocurrency-related activities, including the necessity to hire independent third-party companies for compliance certification [1] Group 1 - The new regulations are aimed at ensuring that financial institutions comply with established regulatory standards before participating in the cryptocurrency market [1] - Independent third-party certification is a core requirement for banks and brokers wishing to operate in the cryptocurrency sector [1]

Group 1: Core Logic - The spring market rally is supported by three driving forces: policy, liquidity, and fundamentals [1] - The central economic work conference emphasizes "domestic demand-driven + innovation-driven" policies, with active fiscal measures and a loose monetary policy [1] - A phase of easing in China-US relations, such as the relaxation of chip export restrictions, provides a stable external environment for the market [1] Group 2: Liquidity - Domestic insurance and wealth management funds show significant "opening red" effects, with long-term funds increasing their equity allocation [1] - The overseas Federal Reserve's continued rate-cutting cycle and the appreciation of the RMB attract foreign capital back, with net inflows of northbound funds observed in Q4 [1] Group 3: Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone, with PPI's year-on-year decline narrowing and expectations for corporate profit recovery strengthening [1] - The technology sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductors, benefits from the global capital expenditure cycle, while cyclical products like non-ferrous metals and chemicals benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and price elasticity [1] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - Balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors, focusing on three main lines: - Technology growth line: AI computing (optical modules, servers), semiconductor equipment (accelerated domestic substitution) [4] - Cyclical recovery line: Non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum) driven by both financial attributes and physical demand, chemicals (MDI, fertilizers) benefiting from price elasticity post-capacity clearance [4] - Chinese manufacturing advantages: Engineering machinery and new energy vehicles benefiting from overseas expansion and global energy transition [4] Group 5: Conclusion - The spring market still has room for development under the triple benefits of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals, but should focus on "fundamental predictions" to avoid blindly chasing hot spots [8] - Investors are advised to dynamically adjust positions based on their risk preferences and seize structural opportunities to share in the investment opportunities of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]

Group 1 - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, driven by the principle of "steady progress," with a foundation for a perfect spring market established through incremental gaming and favorable conditions for long positions [3][4][5] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and a broad diffusion of profit effects, with short-term investments in cyclical Alpha expanding towards more cyclical turning points [3][4][5] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, which may limit the time and space for subsequent market movements after the initial surge [3][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [5][6] - After the spring market, a consolidation phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues regarding the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance and valuation [5][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new stages in technology industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities by residents [5][6] Group 3 - Short-term focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with resistance likely increasing as profit effects expand to high levels [6][8] - Subsequent rotation directions include opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects may see a rotation and recovery [6][8] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on sectors such as overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector is underweight, with a total underweight of 3.08 percentage points, despite an increase in holdings in the fourth quarter, indicating potential investment opportunities as resident funds enter the market under a low interest rate environment [1][4]. Group 1: Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector has received an increase in allocation, with public funds (excluding passive index funds) raising their holding ratio from 0.85% to 1.08%, still underweight by 2.30 percentage points [2]. - The Wind All A Index rose by 0.97% in the fourth quarter, with a quarterly stock fund transaction volume of 24.5 trillion, indicating active market trading that has led to increased fund allocation to the brokerage sector [2]. - Notable individual stock increases include Citic Securities' holding ratio rising from 0.1687% to 0.3132% and Huatai Securities' from 0.1579% to 0.1989% [2]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - The allocation ratio for the insurance sector significantly increased from 1.03% to 2.13%, with an underweight of 0.33%, and the insurance index rose by 23.42% in the fourth quarter [3]. - Individual stock increases include China Life's holding ratio rising from 0.019% to 0.020%, Ping An's from 0.68% to 1.449%, and China Pacific Insurance's from 0.22% to 0.422% [3]. - The expectation of continued capital inflow and a focus on undervalued targets supports the recommendation for insurance stocks [3]. Group 3: Multi-Financial and Fintech Sectors - The allocation ratio for the multi-financial and fintech sectors decreased from 0.204% to 0.145% [3]. - Individual stocks such as Lakala and Yuexiu Financial Holdings received increased allocations, with holding ratios rising from 0% to 0.0027% and 0% to 0.0025%, respectively [3]. - The outlook remains positive for financial information services, third-party payments, and equity investment opportunities due to ongoing policy support for capital inflow and advancements in digital currency and AI applications [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-bank sector remains underweight, with a total underweight of 3.08 percentage points, suggesting four key investment opportunities: 1) Wealth management opportunities in fintech and brokerage due to resident funds entering the market [4]. 2) Valuation recovery opportunities in the insurance sector as interest rates stabilize [4]. 3) Profit enhancement opportunities for third-party payment companies from the expansion of digital currency scenarios [4]. 4) Broader exit channels for equity investment institutions due to an increase in IPOs in the tech sector [4].

作者丨易妍君 编辑丨张星 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末，中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包括主动股 票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中 际旭创 股价报585元，总市值6500亿元。 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控股成为基 金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七大重仓股；而宁 德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增配较多的 行业包括有色金属、通信、非银、化工、机械；主要减配了电子、医药生物、传媒、计算机、电力设备 等行业。 "从宏观角度看，市场资金在追求短期收益与长期战略配置之间寻求平衡，对行业发展前景与政策环境 的综合考量导致了资金流向的调整。"受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出。 重仓股排序更迭 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓股 ...

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Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, characterized by an elevated index center, balanced styles, and increased volatility, aligning with the "slow bull" market phase [4][20][24] - The macroeconomic environment and monetary policy are crucial variables influencing A-share performance, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and potential policy resonance with the U.S. midterm elections [3][18][26] - The market is anticipated to see a shift from valuation expansion to profit recovery as the main driver, supported by long-term confidence in China's economic prospects [3][20][19] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Semiconductor industry is highlighted for its trend towards self-sufficiency and independence [4][20] - The robotics sector is expected to benefit from technological leadership and policy support [4][20] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector remains promising in the digital age, with a focus on performance and growth expectations [4][20] - The renewable energy sector is projected to see improved conditions, with a rebound likely to continue [4][20] - Brokerage firms are set to directly benefit from increased market activity [4][20] - The cyclical sectors are expected to gain from anti-involution policies and economic recovery [4][20] - Real estate is viewed as having rebound opportunities under the "survival of the fittest" principle [4][20] - The pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to experience a catch-up demand while providing defensive value [4][20] - Domestic consumption trends, including the "silver economy" for the elderly and "self-indulgent consumption" for the youth, are expected to drive growth [4][20] - High-dividend stocks are still considered valuable for investment [4][20] Group 3: Thematic Investments - Focus on emerging industries and core technological breakthroughs as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][20] - Opportunities in the AI theme, emphasizing the "computing power-application-end" chain [4][20] - Rare earth materials are highlighted for their supply control capabilities [4][20] - The military industry is supported by policy and driven by events, with a focus on military-civilian integration and military trade exports [4][20] - The industrial mother machine sector is expected to see demand growth driven by policy support [4][20] - The low-altitude economy is projected to expand due to policy drivers and diverse application scenarios [4][20] - The digital economy is anticipated to thrive with technology and policy support, focusing on computing power, cybersecurity, data elements, industrial digitization, and digital currency [4][20] - Commercial aerospace is expected to develop driven by policy implementation, focusing on satellite internet construction and the rocket launch and manufacturing supply chain [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - The large technology stocks in Hong Kong are experiencing collective weakness, with significant declines in major companies such as Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, JD, and Tencent, leading to a drop in the Hang Seng Index and a record low in trading volume for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.24% to 5749.98, with Alibaba down 3.49% to 160.40, and Xiaomi down 1.67% to 36.48 [2]. - The total trading volume for the Hang Seng Index was 2256.89 million HKD, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline and the lowest level since the beginning of the year [4]. - Short selling amounted to 211.93 million HKD, representing 9.39% of the total trading volume, indicating a continued low level of market activity [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The AI application sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with leading companies in this area seeing declines of over 10%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards profit-taking [6]. - In contrast, the aviation sector showed strong performance, with energy assets such as power equipment and nuclear power also gaining traction [3]. - Other sectors like biomedicine, non-ferrous metals, and finance are retreating from recent highs, contributing to the overall market downturn [1][6]. Group 3: External Factors - The market is facing downward pressure due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a renewed tariff dispute between the US and Europe, which are impacting investor sentiment [6]. - The overall market mood is cautious, with a notable decrease in risk appetite among investors, influenced by external economic factors [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that while the Hong Kong market is in a long-term upward trend, it is currently under pressure from various external factors, leading to a mixed outlook for the future [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Insights - The total holding of the non-bank financial sector by public funds increased to 2.42% at the end of 2025, up by 0.82 percentage points from Q3 2025. This is still underweight compared to the industry’s market capitalization in the CSI 300 by 8.46 percentage points [4]. - The insurance sector saw a significant increase in holdings, reaching 1.67%, which is an increase of 0.89 percentage points from Q3 2025. The dynamic valuation for the insurance sector was 0.78x PEV, up by 0.12x from the previous quarter [4]. - The brokerage and internet finance sectors experienced a decrease in holdings, with the overall holding at 0.69%, down by 0.06 percentage points from Q3 2025. Traditional brokerages saw a slight increase in holdings, with a valuation of 1.46x P/B at the end of 2025 [4]. - The non-bank financial sector is benefiting from an improving capital market environment, with a significant increase in trading activity, as evidenced by a 155% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume to 34,444 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings Analysis - The top five stocks in the non-bank financial sector include China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and New China Life, with respective market values of 169.64 billion, 58.42 billion, 31.91 billion, 22.87 billion, and 22.78 billion [4]. - Insurance companies have all increased their holdings, with China Ping An showing the largest increase of 10,315 million shares. The holdings for major insurers at the end of 2025 were as follows: China Life (0.08%), Ping An (1.06%), China Pacific (0.36%), New China Life (0.14%), and China Re (0.02%) [4][9]. Brokerage and Internet Finance Sector - The traditional brokerage sector saw a slight increase in holdings, with major firms like CITIC, Guotai Junan, and others receiving increased institutional support, while firms like Huatai and China Galaxy faced reductions [4][10]. - The internet finance sector, represented by stocks like Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun, saw a decrease in holdings, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][10]. Market Conditions and Recommendations - The report highlights that the non-bank financial sector's attractiveness is increasing due to the ongoing recovery in the equity market and suggests that public funds are still underweight in this sector, presenting potential investment opportunities [4]. - Key recommendations include China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Re, China Pacific, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun as favorable investment options [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly turning negative in the afternoon. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,000 stocks rose across the market [1] - The precious metals sector led the gains, with stocks like Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Mining hitting the daily limit. The chip industry also saw significant growth, with companies such as Huada Technology and Longxin Technology reaching their daily limits. Lithium mining stocks rebounded, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and others hitting the limit as well. The oil and gas sector was active, with Huibo and Intercontinental Oil hitting their limits. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, and the banking sector saw declines, with Agricultural Bank dropping nearly 3% [1] Copper Price Outlook - CITIC Securities noted that the recent surge in copper prices is driven by supply disruptions, increased demand, and changes in trade flows, but the future trend remains uncertain. Supply issues stem from mining accidents and strikes in Indonesia and Chile, leading to a decline in South American copper production. Additionally, new project approvals are delayed, and processing fees are low, tightening supply further. On the demand side, the transition to renewable energy and AI infrastructure is boosting copper consumption, particularly from electric vehicles and data centers. Trade tensions, such as proposed tariffs by the U.S., are pushing traders to export to the U.S., exacerbating supply tightness in other regions [2] Investment Opportunities in Silicon Photonics and CPO - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the silicon photonics industry is on a clear upward trend, with CPO (Chiplet Packaging and Optical) development accelerating. At CES 2026, NVIDIA's CEO announced advanced computing systems with significant performance metrics, including 2 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities. The new systems are expected to have a substantial impact on the industry, highlighting investment opportunities in silicon photonics and related technologies [3] Medical Device Investment Opportunities - CITIC Securities reported that the National Medical Insurance Administration has introduced new policies that will accelerate the promotion and adoption of surgical robots in China. The guidelines for pricing related to surgical robots and consumables are expected to expand, benefiting innovative medical device products. Investors are encouraged to focus on the medical industry chain, particularly in surgical robotics and high-value consumables in fields such as minimally invasive surgery, orthopedics, gastroenterology, cardiovascular, and neurology [4]