2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面底部弱势震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单超预期大增，盘面具备下跌驱动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,250 | 150 | -920 | -920 | -2 ...

"当前玻璃行业冷修与复产并存，从行业库存水平看，少量检修对行业供需格局难以形成较大影响。玻 璃行业潜在供应能力充足，若行业利润有所改善，将激发更多冷修待点火产线投入生产。玻璃期货2509 合约迭创新低，供应回升使盘面短期无明确支撑。"魏朝明说。 近期工业硅价格迭创新低。在价格连续下行过程中，供应维持增长态势。近日，新疆持续有大炉复产开 工；四川丰水期电价下行，企业为消纳弃水电份额，少量点火开炉；云南检修硅厂后续仍有复产计划。 端午假期后首个交易日，国内商品期货涨跌互现。其中，黄金、白银、原油涨幅较大，丁二烯橡胶、20 号胶、玻璃、焦煤、多晶硅、工业硅等品种跌幅较大。 国信期货首席有色分析师顾冯达介绍，短期贵金属波动将加剧，需紧盯美国关税政策及地缘风险边际变 化。若贸易摩擦升级或地缘冲突升温，COMEX黄金或上探3450美元/盎司左右，白银因工业属性与降息 预期共振，弹性或强于黄金；反之，若风险缓和，黄金可能回踩3300美元/盎司附近支撑，而白银受光 伏装机旺季托底，33.5美元/盎司左右支撑坚实。 对于玻璃、多晶硅、工业硅的下跌，方正中期期货首席新能源研究员魏朝明告诉期货日报记者，玻璃、 多晶硅、工业硅的共同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon intensifies during the wet season, and it maintains a downward trend. The polysilicon market is in a bottom - capacity - reduction cycle, and the fundamentals of both industries are currently weak [1][3] - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure remains due to the expected resumption of production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from downstream polysilicon is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is marginally stabilizing, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy is stable. The inventory shows no obvious signs of reduction, so it should be treated bearishly [2][4] - For polysilicon, the production has bottomed out and stabilized, with some resumption of production expected in the southwest. The terminal installation is marginally weakening, and inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to operate within the range of 35,000 - 40,000 [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply - side - The spot price of East China non - oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 8,300 - 8,400 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In May, the industrial silicon output dropped to 290,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April. Xinjiang reduced production by about 10,000 tons. In the southwest, Sichuan has resumed production to about 15,000 tons, and Yunnan is still operating at a low level, with expected increased operation in June. Some Xinjiang manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production again, and the supply - side pressure persists [2] Downstream Demand - side - Polysilicon: In April, the polysilicon output stabilized at 95,000 tons. As the photovoltaic rush - installation tide nears its end, the demand for polysilicon in the industrial chain is expected to decline, and there is a possibility of further production cuts, leading to a marginal weakening of the demand for industrial silicon [2] - Organic silicon: Monomer manufacturers have initiated joint production cuts. Recently, the DMC inventory has significantly decreased, the DMC price has stabilized and rebounded, and the production - cut effect is evident. The demand for industrial silicon shows marginal signs of stabilization [2] - Alloy silicon: The price is stable, but the consumption is low and cannot support the market. The demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Inventory - The inventory pressure is high. This week's inventory increased by 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 589,000 tons [2] Polysilicon Supply - side - The production cuts of polysilicon have basically been priced in, and the market has returned to fundamental logic. In April, the polysilicon output slightly dropped to 95,000 tons. Currently, polysilicon manufacturers are still producing according to quotas. With the weakening downstream demand expectation, the output will not fluctuate significantly. As the southwest wet season approaches, some manufacturers have the expectation of resuming production, but limited by the polysilicon price, the output is expected to grow slowly [3] Downstream Demand - side - Silicon wafers: There is a trend of production cuts. Currently, they are mainly digesting polysilicon inventory. The silicon wafer price has slightly weakened, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly [3] - Solar cells and modules: The production schedules have also decreased. The rush - installation period has ended. With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies, the photovoltaic industry will accelerate reshuffling, and the demand for polysilicon will decline significantly [3] Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 250,000 tons, and the entire industrial - chain inventory is equivalent to nearly 500,000 tons. The inventory - reduction pressure is high [3]

免责声明 进一步抑制了多晶硅需求增长。库存方面，多晶硅库存处于高位状态。硅片企业前期采购的多晶硅尚未完 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 全消化，导致库存积压，对市场价格形成明显压制。操作中长线依旧高空为主。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 34360 | -1240 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 71600 | -5800 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1940 | 145 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 27290 | ...

2025年06月03日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基本面偏弱，下行压力仍存 | 4 | | 工业硅：库存累库，盘面继续下行 | 6 | | 多晶硅：以逢高布空思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 | 620 | -1,510 | -1,510 | -2,620 ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：库存累库，盘面继续下行 多晶硅：以逢高布空思路为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,160 | -55 | -755 | -1,620 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 456,239 | -83,444 | 172,084 | 267,797 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 208,497 | -15,649 | 30,113 | 15,395 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 35,600 | 320 | -490 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 150,575 | 5,236 | -18,647 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 77,400 | -871 | 2,971 | - ...

多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-28 | | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 35100 | -190 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 79868 | -932 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2350 | 250 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 27760 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 36500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 29 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1210 | -405 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 31.5 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.29 | -0.01 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 32.5 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 7340 | -100 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Daqo Energy (688303.SH) has declined to 19.27 yuan, representing a drop of 1.98%, and is currently in a state of below the issue price [1] - Daqo Energy was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 22, 2021, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of 21.49 yuan per share, raising a total of 644.7 million yuan [1] - The company planned to use the raised funds for projects including the annual production of 1,000 tons of high-purity semiconductor materials and 35,000 tons of polysilicon, as well as for working capital [1] Group 2 - In 2022, Daqo Energy issued A-shares to specific investors, raising approximately 10.99 billion yuan at an issue price of 51.79 yuan per share [2] - The net proceeds from this issuance, after deducting issuance costs, amounted to about 10.94 billion yuan, which has been fully utilized by the end of 2023 [2] - The total amount raised by Daqo Energy from both fundraising activities is approximately 17.447 billion yuan [3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅需求难有起色，库存依旧压制价格 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅收跌2.82%，市场在经历上周下跌后，本周继续下跌，主要原因来自于进入丰水期，工业硅成 本继续下滑，而当下现货价格已经跌破成本，多数企业无复工复产意愿，当然下游需求不畅是导致价格下跌主要原因， 工业硅基差走弱，现货价格下滑，后续预计库存下滑后，对价格整体有所支撑，本周多晶硅收涨0.32%，海外光伏组件 大厂破产传闻，以及头部企业联合去产能消息共振下，周五尾盘小幅拉升，但多晶硅目前基本面格局依旧不佳。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从供应端来看，随着丰水期临近，云南、四川等地逐步进入丰水期，电价成本优势显现，但 是从开工率以及产量数据来反馈，目前西南地区并没有意愿复工，虽然产量小幅增加，但是依旧处于较低位置。工 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金继续上行，最终收涨 0.76%，报 3314.36 美元/盎司，创 | | 研究员：王伟 | 近一周新高。伦敦银最终收涨 0.95%，报 33.38 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 收涨 0.92%，报 777.84 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.86%，报 8285 元/千克。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续下行，最终收跌 0.56%，报 99.60。 | | | 3.美债收益率：受累于 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，10 年期美债收益率收报盘中一度触 | | 及 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2 月以来新高 4.609%，最终收于 4.587%。 | | 期 ...