Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced the addition of three new delivery warehouses for polysilicon futures, effective immediately [1] Group 1 - The newly added delivery warehouses are Xinjiang Qiya Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd., and Hangzhou Zhengcai Holding Group Co., Ltd. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market in China has experienced a slight price increase, indicating a recovery in market confidence after three months of stability [3][7]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 50,000 to 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.32% [1][5]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1][5]. - The transaction price for n-type dense material is between 48,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,300 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.21% [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of mainstream signing enterprises has slightly increased week-on-week, with most orders being for December, and transaction prices have risen by 1-2 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon market has ended its previous three-month stability, with prices rising slightly and transaction volumes recovering, driven by three main factors: 1. To match the traditional off-season demand in Q1 2026, polysilicon companies are continuing to implement production cuts and sales control strategies, with expected production and shipment scale in January 2026 to be significantly reduced to 60,000-80,000 tons, effectively alleviating supply pressure [3][7]. 2. Production cuts have led to an increase in the comprehensive cost of polysilicon products, prompting price adjustments based on a pricing mechanism that covers costs [3][7]. 3. Both upstream and downstream companies recognize the importance of maintaining price stability to avoid negative chain reactions, with the recent price increase providing support for price stabilization across downstream sectors [3][7]. Future Outlook - The slight increase in polysilicon prices and moderate transaction volume suggest that market confidence is gradually recovering. In the short term, the polysilicon market is expected to achieve dual stabilization in both volume and price due to proactive supply tightening and smoother price transmission downstream [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market has experienced a slight price increase this week, ending a three-month period of stability, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon re-investment materials is between 50,000 to 56,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.32% [1][3]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon remains stable at 50,500 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous week [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The number of mainstream signing enterprises has slightly increased week-on-week, with most orders being for December, and prices adjusted upward by 1-2 CNY/kg [1]. - Companies are currently in intensive negotiations for January orders, with expectations of bulk orders materializing soon [1]. - The market's slight price increase and moderate transaction volume indicate a gradual recovery in market confidence [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - Supply-side adjustments include a continued reduction in production by leading enterprises, with expected January polysilicon output significantly lowered to 60,000 to 80,000 tons, alleviating supply pressure [1][2]. - The increase in polysilicon prices is also attributed to rising production costs due to reduced output, as companies adjust prices to cover costs [1][2]. - Downstream sectors are experiencing a slight recovery in silicon wafer prices, supported by rigid procurement needs in battery and module segments, although a full recovery in terminal demand is still pending [2]. Inventory Situation - Currently, production and demand are generally balanced, with no significant inventory accumulation, although absolute inventory levels remain high, indicating ongoing de-inventory pressure [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market has experienced a slight price increase, ending a three-month period of stability, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Market Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 50,000 - 56,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.32% [1][3]. - The average transaction price for n-type granular silicon remains stable at 50,500 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous week [1][3]. - The increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to three main factors: supply-side production cuts, rising production costs, and the need for price stability across the supply chain [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side continues to show a strong reduction atmosphere, with leading companies cutting production more than expected, keeping overall operating rates low [2]. - Downstream demand is supported by a slight recovery in silicon wafer prices and rigid procurement needs from battery and module sectors, although a full recovery in end-demand is still pending [2]. - Current inventory levels remain high, but there is no significant accumulation expected in the short term, indicating a balance between production and demand [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent slight increase in polysilicon prices and moderate transaction volume indicate a gradual recovery of market confidence [2]. - It is anticipated that the polysilicon market may achieve stability in both volume and price in the short term due to proactive supply tightening and smoother price transmission downstream [2].

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon market has bottomed out and rebounded, while the sentiment in the polysilicon market has subsided. The industrial silicon spot price is basically stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after production cuts in the southwest, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The polysilicon market has poor supply - demand performance, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure [1][3][4][6] Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated higher. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 22, 2025, was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - The industrial silicon spot price was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, with an expected production of around 114,000 tons in December, a slight decrease from November. The weekly production scheduling of silicone fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week, with a possible reduction of about 5,000 tons in industrial silicon consumption in December. In November 2025, China's exports of primary - form polysiloxanes of silicone were 47,000 tons, a 15.82% increase from the previous month and a 10.39% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 507,600 tons, a 2.28% increase from the same period last year [2] Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. It is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, and there is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On December 23, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, a - 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 153,313 lots [4] Supply and Inventory - The polysilicon spot price was basically stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a 0.00% change from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a - 7.73% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a - 0.40% change, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67 GW, a - 12.18% change [4] Product Prices - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5] Strategy - The supply - demand performance of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities. After the establishment of platform companies, the intensity of production and sales restrictions needs to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. There is no suggestion for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was in a volatile state. The main contract 2605 opened at 8685 yuan/ton and closed at 8595 yuan/ton, a change of (-45) yuan/ton or (-0.52)% compared to the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 was 221,606 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 21 was 9019 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - On December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 138,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the planned output in December was around 114,000 tons, with a slight decrease compared to November, resulting in limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week. In early December, monomer plants gradually reduced production, and the consumption of industrial silicon in December may decrease by about 5000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand of the aluminum alloy industry showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weak trend [2]. Strategy - The spot price is basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but inventory accumulation continues. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Pay attention to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy support, the futures price may rise. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 60,000 yuan/ton and closing at 58,845 yuan/ton, a change of -2.08% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,949 (139,187 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 213,280 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.30 (with a 0.00% change compared to the previous period), and the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50GW, a decrease of -7.73% compared to the previous period. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a change of -0.40% compared to the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, a change of -12.18% compared to the previous period [4]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.53 (0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.30 (0.05) yuan/piece [4][5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.31 (0.02) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is poor, with continuous inventory increases and high inventory pressure. The consumption end performance is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, pay attention to the subsequent production and sales restrictions. The futures price has large fluctuations recently, and participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption end performance is average, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6].

2025年12月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：厂库扩容便利仓单交割 | 4 | | 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 23 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,260 | 4,080 | 6,570 | 3,230 | 5,8 ...