Group 1: Company Performance - Daqo Energy reported a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 67.93% [1] - The company experienced a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.147 billion yuan, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year [1] - This marks the worst mid-year performance for Daqo Energy since 2015, with a previous high net profit of 9.525 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The decline in performance is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand in the silicon material market, leading to a significant drop in polysilicon prices [1] - Polysilicon spot prices fell from 40,600 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 34,400 yuan per ton by the end of June, a decrease of 15.3% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also dropped from 11,697 yuan per ton to 8,743 yuan per ton, a decline of 25.3% [1] Group 3: Production Strategy - In response to the ongoing price decline and industry-wide losses, Daqo Energy implemented a production reduction strategy, resulting in a 60% year-on-year decrease in polysilicon production to 50,800 tons [1] - The company plans to continue this reduction strategy into the third quarter, with expected polysilicon production between 27,000 to 30,000 tons [2] - For the full year of 2025, the company anticipates a total production of 110,000 to 130,000 tons [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the current challenges, Daqo Energy remains optimistic about the overall development of the photovoltaic industry and product price trends [2] - Since July, following the government's "anti-involution" policy, the domestic silicon market has seen a rapid rebound in futures prices, positively impacting spot prices [2] - As of August 26, Daqo Energy's stock price increased by 2.31%, reaching 30.50 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 65.429 billion yuan [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening, and it is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by costs and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The demand for industrial silicon has started to decline steadily, but the supply has also decreased, and the overall situation remains volatile. Polysilicon continued to decline today, and there is still room for further decline. If it subsequently breaks below 49,500, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions, and after the sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be established. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now or to arrange put options [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,985 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 137,478 lots, up 677 lots; the price difference between polysilicon contracts 11 - 12 is -2,380 yuan, unchanged; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,470 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is -1,985 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - grade polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - grade polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,515 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, up 8,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, up 0.16 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, up 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars; the polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry composite price index (SPI) is 28.48, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Today, the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Silicone Materials Industry Association in Lanzhou held an "anti - involution" meeting. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output in August will increase. If the "production and sales restrictions" are implemented in September, the monthly output may remain flat month - on - month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up production bases in the southwest are at full capacity, and although some northwest enterprises have started and stopped production, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The industrial silicon market shows a short - term improvement in supply - demand pattern with slight inventory reduction, but high total inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. The polysilicon market is affected by policies, with large price fluctuations, and is suitable for long - position layout at low prices in the medium - to - long term [1][3][7] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 8930 yuan/ton and closed at 8675 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 289,125 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Tianjin, Northwest, Xinjiang, and Shanghai increased, while individual prices in Sichuan decreased. Prices in Kunming and Huangpu Port remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained unchanged. As of August 21, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game. Although the monomer enterprises adopted a promotion strategy to relieve inventory pressure, the downstream was still cautious due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal orders, and only replenished goods in moderation according to production needs [2] Strategy - In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has improved with a slight inventory reduction, but the high total industry inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. It may fluctuate mainly according to the overall commodity sentiment in the short term [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 52,320 yuan/ton and closing at 51,580 yuan/ton, a change of 0.73% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,801 lots (142,397 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 360,522 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with N - type material at 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg and N - type granular silicon at 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg [5] Inventory and Production - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% increase from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a 12.07% decrease. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase [5][6] Product Prices - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, 210mm, and 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece, 1.58 yuan/piece, and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [6] Strategy - Recently, the spot quotation of polysilicon has increased, and the prices of downstream products have also risen. The supply - demand fundamentals are average, with polysilicon inventory accumulation and average consumption - end installation data. The futures price is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [7]

近日，工信部办公厅公布《关于印发2025年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通知》，明确对全国 41家多晶硅企业开展专项节能监察。多晶硅作为光伏电站核心材料，其生产过程具有高能耗特点，能源 利用效率直接关系光伏产业全链条低碳属性。 一位业内人士在接受《中国能源报》采访时介绍，多晶硅产业作为光伏产业链的源头，其高能耗特性 与"双碳"目标存在阶段性矛盾。此次工信部专项节能监察通过设定标准倒逼技术迭代和市场准入重塑竞 争格局两重机制推动多晶硅产业从规模扩张转向能效竞争。"节能监察对产能过剩问题的优化作用包括 监察明确对电耗>60kWh/kg的产能实施关停，涉及未达标中小企业和部分老旧西门子法产线。同时，加 速市场集中度提升，行业向头部企业整合加速，尤其是技术龙头与有区域优势的企业。" 据了解，多晶硅的强制能耗标准是根据国家标准GB29447-2022制定的，源于对GB29447-2012的修订， 该标准规定了多晶硅单位产品能源消耗的限额等级、技术要求、统计范围和计算方法。标准适用于以高 纯氢气还原三氯氢硅生产光伏用多晶硅的企业。 上述业内人士指出，2012年标准详细规定了13道工序的能耗上限，2022年标准除了精简 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - The current market lacks a clear directional guide, with a mix of long and short factors. Prices are mainly fluctuating within a range, with the 01 contract's reference range being 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is trending weakly following its own fundamental logic. The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the inventory may face further pressure. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels. - Glass has a weak demand in the deep - processing sector, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. The short - selling logic on the disk is not over, and previous high - level short positions can be held [3]. Logs - The log futures are expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850. It is recommended to mainly go long at low levels with reference to the 01 contract [4]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon fluctuates widely. The cost center is expected to rise, and there are expectations of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try going long at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range being 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at high levels, with the price range's lower limit rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit being 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try going long at low levels and consider buying put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.98%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, and the non - standard price difference increased by 8.48% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 45 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.50%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.26%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.65% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased by 6.80%. - The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. - In June, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.21%. In July, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 5.00% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02%. The inflow and outflow rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 1.36%, and the glass 2509 contract increased by 1.42%. The 05 basis decreased by 151.8% [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1.25%, and the soda ash 2509 contract increased by 1.32%. The 05 basis decreased by 141.67% [3]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 1.33%, and the weekly output increased by 1.33%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 0.28%, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 0.89%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 6.37%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. Real Estate Data (YoY) - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices generally declined. The prices of various specifications of spot logs in ports remained mostly unchanged, and the outer - disk quotes remained unchanged [4]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of congested ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% [4]. Inventory - As of August 15, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.06 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decline. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.74%, and that in Jiangsu increased by 5.95% [4]. Demand - As of August 15, the average daily log delivery volume was 63,300 cubic meters, remaining basically flat [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different specifications changed, with some decreasing significantly [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.45%, etc. [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, and the operating rate increased by 2.47%. The production and operating rates of different regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 4.54%, while that of polysilicon increased by 5.10% [5]. Inventory Changes - The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the order inventory decreased by 0.23% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon raw materials remained unchanged, while the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased slightly. The N - type material basis increased by 4.94% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 0.24%. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.57%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.68%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10%, and the import volume increased by 47.48% [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.89%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.07% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by cost and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The overall situation will still maintain a volatile state. Today, polysilicon showed an overall upward and then downward trend, maintaining a volatile state. It is expected that the future price center may further decline. The operation suggestion is to layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 51,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,380, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 [2] - The main position volume of polysilicon is 136,801 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,596; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 235 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The basis of polysilicon is - 2,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 175; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 110; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons [2] - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 57 tons [2] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,004,000 kilowatts; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 28.48, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 [2] - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, with a month - on - month increase of 21,456,820 units [2] - The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, with a month - on - month increase of 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. This was mainly due to the improvement of operation efficiency, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation became the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy started a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output of polysilicon will increase in August. If the "production and sales restriction" is implemented in September, the monthly output may be flat compared with the previous month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up bases in the southwest are at full production, and although some enterprises in the northwest are starting and stopping, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2] View Summary - The supply of polysilicon is increasing, while the demand is weakening. The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but the downstream is highly wait - and - see. The impact of weak terminal demand is gradually emerging. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain have been raised, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed, and the terminal transaction pressure is relatively large, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to a certain extent [2] Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry Silicon: Oscillation / Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening marginally, the short - term price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and investors should pay attention to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. The strategy is to be bullish on pullbacks, and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] - The government's policy of regulating the photovoltaic industry competition order has an impact on the price of polysilicon and its upstream and downstream products. Although the component price has increased, the terminal demand is not optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be incremental policies [2][12][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,745 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract decreased by 1,335 yuan/ton to 51,405 yuan/ton week - on - week. The transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Gradually Resume Production, and Component Bidding Prices Increase - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan added 8, 3, and 2 furnaces respectively, Inner Mongolia added 1, and Gansu reduced 1. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.40 tons. The eastern base of a large factory in Xinjiang resumed 8 furnaces this week with further plans, but the implementation needs to be observed. Southern production has reached its peak with no obvious increase in the future. Downstream maintains just - in - time procurement. It is estimated that the inventory of industrial silicon will decrease by about 10,000 tons in August. If the large factory's operation remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and decrease by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if the large factory fully resumes production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [10] - **Organic Silicon**: The price oscillated downward this week. The third - phase device of Tangshan Sanyou stopped, and the device in Hoshine's Sichuan area resumed production. The overall enterprise operating rate was 76.03%, with a weekly output of 50,300 tons, a decrease of 2.14% week - on - week. The inventory was 48,800 tons, an increase of 0.62% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract oscillated this week. Six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, and on Friday, Huadian's 20GW component centralized procurement bid opened, with component prices rising significantly, driving up upstream prices. The bid price of second - tier enterprises' dense material increased to 48 yuan/kg, and that of first - tier enterprises increased to 50 - 53 yuan/kg. To maintain prices, production and sales control in the polysilicon segment are necessary. The production in August was between 125,000 - 130,000 tons. The production in September is highly uncertain, with a pessimistic estimate of up to 140,000 tons and an optimistic estimate of 120,000 tons, still in surplus [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The quotation increased this week. After the symposium, the association gave a new guidance price for silicon wafers on the 20th afternoon. Silicon wafer enterprises adjusted their quotes to the guidance price, with M10/G12R/G12 models rising to 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece. As of August 21, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 17.41GW, a decrease of 2.39GW. The production schedule in August was 53GW, and it is expected to be flat in September [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 models were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt. As of August 18, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, an increase of 0.83GW. The domestic production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August was about 58GW. Some battery enterprises showed an intention to raise prices, with an expected increase to over 0.3 yuan/watt [13] - **Components**: The price oscillated this week. New orders were few, mainly fulfilling previous orders. The delivery price of centralized projects was between 0.62 - 0.68 yuan/watt, and the distributed spot price was stagnant, with a small amount of transactions above 0.7 yuan/watt. After the symposium, component prices are expected to rise. Huadian's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/watt for the first - stage bid, which is lower than expected but can cover the cost. With policy support, the component bidding price is expected to exceed 0.7 yuan/watt, but the terminal demand is not optimistic [14] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang. Although the fundamentals are weakening, the price may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term due to the expectation of US interest rate cuts and the "anti - involution" of the domestic photovoltaic industry chain. Look for range - trading opportunities [3][16] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is strongly supported by the spot transaction price of leading enterprises. In the short term, the price may run between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton and is expected to exceed 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. Be bullish on pullbacks and consider 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunities around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][16] 3.4 Hot News - On August 22, Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement bid opened, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/W for the first - stage bid and 0.746 yuan/W for the second - stage bid [17] - The photovoltaic industry issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and maintain a fair competition market order [17] - On August 19, six ministries jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the competition order, including strengthening industrial regulation, curbing low - price competition, standardizing product quality, and supporting industry self - discipline [18] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on prices, production, and inventory such as the price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, and social and factory inventories [8][9][10] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on the price, profit, inventory, and production of DMC [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - **Battery Cells**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise production [13] - **Components**: Involves data on spot prices, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise production [14]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate is affected by the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia Wokeng mine and expectations of other lithium mines remaining offline, with a month-on-month increase in cathode material lithium consumption by 8% to 86,000 tons LCE in August [1] - Downstream procurement is accelerating, and there is an increased expectation for inventory replenishment [1] - Total inventory remains high at 142,000 tons [1] Group 2: Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% month-on-month to 3.61 million tons in June, with Malaysian palm oil exports also increasing by 13.6%-17.5% from August 1-20 [1] - The confiscation of 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations in Indonesia may impact supply [1] - The postponement of the U.S. biofuel exemption is a significant event to monitor [1] Group 3: Urea - The Indian NFL's shortened bidding intervals and maintained scale have boosted market confidence, leading to an increase in spot market prices [1] - Company inventories rose by 6.95% to 1.0239 million tons [1] - The agricultural off-season has resulted in only sporadic demand, with a shift in compound fertilizer production towards high-phosphorus formulas [1] Group 4: Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to restrictions on coking enterprises, but steel mill maintenance may lead to a significant decrease in pig iron production [2] - The auction of Mongolian ETT coking coal resulted in all bids failing, causing a price correction for high-priced resources [2] - New orders have decreased as downstream sectors resist high-priced resources [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices decreased by 0.68%, and polysilicon prices dropped by 2.53%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market oscillated at a high level [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply is expected to increase in the southwest region due to the deepening of the wet season, but demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat overall. For polysilicon, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, and the market is likely to face further adjustments and continue to oscillate [4]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, within the range of 46000 - 53000, with a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, while polysilicon futures oscillated at a high level. After reaching over 52000, the polysilicon price dropped again due to low market acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest is expected to increase as the wet season deepens, but demand from downstream industries shows different trends. Organic silicon demand is negative, while polysilicon demand is expected to increase in August but may be limited in the long term. Aluminum alloy demand remains stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening due to factors such as weak terminal demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak market structure in the photovoltaic industry [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with specific ranges provided [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Price Movements**: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis narrowed. Polysilicon spot prices increased, and the basis strengthened [4][10][14]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 79,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95%. The output and capacity utilization rate remained unchanged this week [20]. 3. Industry Situation - **Cost and Price**: This week, the raw materials for industrial silicon decreased, and electricity prices remained stable during the wet season, keeping the overall cost low. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory increased significantly [23][45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 21, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, a net increase of 465 lots [30]. - **Downstream Industry**: - **Organic Silicon**: Output and the operating rate decreased, and profits declined due to cost and price changes [32][37][43]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory increased significantly, and it is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [45][47]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Prices remained flat, which is expected to drag down the demand for polysilicon [52][57]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: Costs decreased, profits and output increased, indicating that the industry is gradually improving [59][62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and its futures market is mainly fluctuating with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price center has moved up, but the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][8] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.66%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 283,578 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton this week, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' prices were 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, down 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from last week [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 52,200 yuan/ton and closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.28% from the previous trading day. The position was 149,610 lots, and the trading volume was 447,553 lots [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% change; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a - 12.07% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a - 0.68% change; the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% change [5] Other Products - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.21 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.56 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.36 yuan/piece [7] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price remains stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. The fundamentals have changed little, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon - In the short - term, it is suitable for range trading. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]