1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,228 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase [7]. - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 70 yuan from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,120 - 6,150 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's June Quotes: Silver Star was quoted at 740 US dollars/ton, and Venus at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - Supply: In April, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative volume from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year. In May, China's pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year [7]. - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 2.1% month - on - month. The inventory in major ports was stable with a slight increase, except for Tianjin Port. The overall shipment speed was moderate [7]. - Market Outlook: The new round of imported pulp quotes remained stable. The domestic and international pulp markets had a loose supply, the port de - stocking speed was still slow, downstream paper mills continued to optimize the raw material cost structure, and the competition between domestic and imported pulp intensified. Pulp prices fluctuated widely in a low - level range [7]. 3. Industry News - On June 6, relevant personnel from the Fujian Forestry Bureau and the Sanming Forestry Bureau visited Qingshan Paper Industry to guide the construction planning of the national reserve forest project. They believed that Qingshan Paper Industry's promotion of the project could ensure raw material supply and achieve green government - enterprise linkage. Qingshan Paper Industry, as a state - owned leading enterprise, has the unique advantage of "integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries" and adheres to the principle of "scientific planning and industrial collaboration" [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy is recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Data - On June 17, 2025, compared with the previous week, the HMA was down 1.02%, the silver star of softwood pulp was down 0.82%, and the SP2601 was down 0.15%. Compared with the previous day, the SP2601 was down 1.63%. The futures price of SP2507 increased by 0.42% week - on - week and decreased by 1.95% month - on - month. The spot price of softwood pulp silver star was 740, with no change month - on - month. The import cost of Chilean silver star was 4587 dollars, with no change [1] Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 79.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 119.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.44%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1955, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80%. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly. The Arauco company in Chile announced the June 2025 wood pulp FOB prices: softwood pulp silver star at 740 dollars/ton (list price), unchanged; no supply of hardwood pulp in June, with partial supply expected to resume in July (limited quantity); natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton (list price), unchanged [1] Demand - Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made purchases based on rigid demand, and the output of major finished papers remained stable [1] Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 218.5 tons, a 2.8 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. The inventory showed a slight accumulation trend. The delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated [1] Valuation Data - On June 17, 2025, the quantile level of the silver star of softwood pulp was 0.726, and the quantile level of the Russian softwood pulp basis was 0.619. The basis of silver star was 808, and the import profit of hardwood pulp goldfish was - 487 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5,244 yuan, down 0.49% day-on-day and up 0.04% week-on-week; SP2507 was 5,268 yuan, down 1.46% day-on-day and down 0.23% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5,214 yuan, down 0.87% day-on-day and down 0.27% week-on-week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6,150 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.56% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Golden was 4,120 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week [1] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote was 740 US dollars, unchanged; import cost was 6,046 yuan, unchanged. Chilean Star's foreign quote was 560 US dollars, unchanged; import cost was 4,587 yuan, unchanged. Chilean Venus's foreign quote was 620 US dollars, unchanged; import cost was 5,073 yuan, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month-on-month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month-on-month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1,353 tons, down 30.80% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 12, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 218.5 tons, up 1.3% from the previous period. The delivery warehouse inventory was 25.5 tons [1] - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers remained stable. For example, the production of offset paper was 20.1 tons, coated paper was 7.61 tons, tissue paper was 28 tons, and white cardboard was 30.1 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 82, with a quantile level of 0.837; the Silver Star basis was 882, with a quantile level of 0.977 [3] - **Import Profit**: On June 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104, with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -467, with a quantile level of 0.208 [3] Supply End - Chilean Arauco announced the June 2025 wood pulp foreign quotes: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton (face value), unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (limited quantity); natural pulp Venus was 620 US dollars/ton (face value), unchanged. According to the PPC report, in April 2025, the shipment volume of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the shipment volume of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year-on-year [3] Demand End - Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid purchases, and the production of major finished papers remained stable [4] Inventory End - As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 218.5 tons, an increase of 2.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.3% increase month-on-month, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [4] Strategy - Pulp is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,500 yuan/ton in the short term due to the lack of clear driving factors [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5

Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes, with a new round of imported pulp quotes remaining stable, slow de - stocking at ports, and mediocre implementation of downstream price increase letters, resulting in a wide - range sideways movement [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 had a previous settlement price of 5,280 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,260 yuan/ton, a 0.38% decline. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6,150 - 6,170 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced June quotes: Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a 4.3% increase month - on - month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year [7] - As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. The downstream market has a clear demand for improved profitability, but terminal orders are limited, and the raw material procurement mentality is cautious [7] 2. Industry News - On June 6, relevant personnel from the Fujian Forestry Bureau and the Sanming Forestry Bureau visited Qingshan Paper Industry to guide the construction planning of the national reserve forest project. They believe that Qingshan Paper Industry's promotion of the project can ensure raw material supply and achieve green government - enterprise linkage. Qingshan Paper Industry, as a state - owned leading enterprise, has the unique advantage of "integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries" and adheres to the principle of "scientific planning and industrial collaboration" [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, cross - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, copperplate paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,500 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5,282 yuan, down 0.26% day-on-day and up 0.84% week-on-week; SP2507 was 5,376 yuan, down 0.33% day-on-day and up 1.36% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5,284 yuan, down 0.11% day-on-day and up 1.19% week-on-week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On June 10, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6,150 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and down 0.81% week-on-week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5,350 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and down 0.93% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Golden was 4,120 yuan, unchanged day-on-day and down 0.72% week-on-week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In June 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6,046 yuan, unchanged; Chilean Star was 4,587 yuan, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan, unchanged [1] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month [1] - **Shipment to China**: In April 2025, the pulp shipment to China was 1,353 tons, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp in early June 2025 was around 20 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was around 19.8 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, up 0.2% month - on - month; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Output**: In early June 2025, the output of double - offset paper was around 20.4 tons; copperplate paper was around 7.6 tons; tissue paper was around 27.7 tons; white cardboard was around 30.1 tons [1] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 10, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was - 26, with a quantile level of 0.639; the Silver Star basis was 774, with a quantile level of 0.954 [1] - **Import Profit**: On June 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104, with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467, with a quantile level of 0.207 [1] 3.4 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco company announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June and limited supply in July; natural pulp Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In April 2025, the shipment of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the shipment of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year - on - year [1] - **Demand Side**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid purchases. The output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable [1]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 11, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The new round of imported pulp quotes remained stable, the port destocking speed was still slow, the implementation effect of downstream price increase letters was average, and the shutdown of the 690,000 - ton per - annum softwood pulp mill Joutseno in Finland due to poor orders boosted the market trend, leading to a wide - range rebound in pulp prices [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Pulp Futures**: The previous settlement price of the 09 - contract of pulp futures was 5,256 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,284 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. The 01 - contract and 05 - contract also showed different price changes [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,280 - 6,750 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 - 6,170 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chilean Arauco announced its June quotes, with Yinxing at 740 US dollars/ton and Jinxing at 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to April was 1.4%. China's pulp imports in May were 3.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. The downstream market had a clear demand for improving profitability, but the follow - up of terminal orders was limited, and the raw material procurement mentality was cautious [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Jiulong Paper is promoting a forest - pulp - paper integration project in Beihai, Guangxi. The first production line is planned to be put into operation in June 2025, and the other two production lines will be put into operation in stages in September and December. The project aims to achieve full production in 2025, with a total investment of 35 billion yuan, covering an area of 5,120 mu. After the project is put into operation, the annual output value is expected to reach 70 billion yuan, and the annual tax will increase by 3 billion yuan. The pulp production capacity is expected to reach 14.4 million tons [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including pulp futures price, spot price, price difference, inventory, and other data, with data sources mainly from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][11][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short - term and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,500 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On June 9, 2025, the day - on - day change of SP2601 was 1.07%, SP2507 was 0.00%, and SP2509 was 1.26%. The week - on - week change of SP2507 was - 0.34%, and SP2509 was - 0.08% [1]. - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6,150 yuan/ton with a week - on - week change of - 0.81%, and the futures price of SP2601 was 5,296 yuan/ton [1]. - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Star, and Venus were 740, 560, and 620 US dollars respectively, with no change month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 119.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.44% [1]. - The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1,353 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1]. - As of May 29, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - On June 9, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 70 with a quantile level of 0.975, and the Silver Star basis was 870 [1]. - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104 with a quantile level of 0.78, and the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 467 with a quantile level of 0.207 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: Chilean Arauco announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton (face price), unchanged; broad - leaf pulp had no supply in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (limited quantity); the price of natural pulp Venus was 620 US dollars/ton (face price), unchanged [1]. - Demand: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor; downstream paper mills made rigid - demand purchases, with a slight increase in white cardboard production and stable production of other paper types [1]. - Inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the mainstream port sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 216.1 tons, a 0.4 - ton increase from the previous period, a 0.2% week - on - week increase, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]