产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 环球市场动态 2026 年全国 " 两 会 " 展 望 股 票 A 股周四窄幅震荡，AI、航天板块 强势；港股高开低走，大型科技股 继续承压；欧洲股市再度走强，强 劲财报支持多个市场再创新高；美 股英伟达 (NVDA US) 连续超预期 财报未获市场青睐，半导体科技股 大跌，金龙中国指数表现不佳。 外 汇 / 商 品 美伊核谈判据称进展良好，周四纽 约期油连跌 5 天。避险情绪降温， 金价微跌。日本央行货币政策委员 会委员高田创重申呼吁央行上调利 率，日元上升。政治不确定性拖累 英镑下跌。 固 定 收 益 美国国债上涨，10 年期国债收益率 跌至去年 11 月以来的最低水平，主 要受到科技股大幅下跌的带动。同 时，由于月底指数再平衡将纳入本 季度大量新发行的美债，被动型投 资者的买盘预期也推高了需求。 2026 年 2 月 27 日 ▪ 2026 年 3 月 4-5 日，全国政协十四届四次会议与十四届全国人大四次会议将在北京召开。我们认为 2026 年全 国 "两会" 的关注重点如下：预计 2026 ...

Group 1 - The tourism market has shifted from a peak demand during the longest Spring Festival holiday to a high-value off-peak travel mode, with significant price reductions in both flights and hotels [1][2] - Domestic flight prices have dropped sharply post-holiday, with some popular routes seeing reductions of 80%-90%, making them cheaper than high-speed train tickets [1] - Hotel prices in popular cities such as Nanjing, Shantou, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Xishuangbanna, and Sanya have decreased by 30%-45% after the holiday, with this trend expected to continue until the end of March [1] Group 2 - In Nanjing, hotel prices fell by nearly 350 yuan from an average of 557 yuan during the Spring Festival to 345 yuan post-holiday [2] - Xishuangbanna's hotel prices decreased from an average of 921 yuan during the holiday to 615 yuan afterward [2] - Despite the end of the Spring Festival, various demographics, including freelancers and university students, are engaging in off-peak travel, leading to continued high interest in certain tourist attractions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The resource sector has shown strong performance in early 2026, with several funds heavily invested in this area achieving significant returns, despite not being classified strictly as resource-themed funds [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of February 26, 2026, the top-performing funds include: - Western Leading Strategy Preferred A with a return of 54.37% - Western Leading New Power A at 53.48% - Western Leading Industry Theme Preferred A at 48.54% - Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry A at 32.51% [1]. Fund Structure and Strategy - The funds mentioned are classified as mixed funds with broad investment mandates, allowing for flexibility in stock selection and sector allocation [2][3]. - Western Leading Strategy Preferred A aims to identify companies with sustainable growth potential, with stock investments ranging from 60% to 95% of fund assets [3]. - Western Leading New Power A targets companies in consumer services and technological innovation, with stock assets also ranging from 0% to 95% [3]. Portfolio Composition - The top holdings of the Western Leading funds show significant overlap, with key stocks including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a concentrated investment in both resource and domestic demand sectors [4]. - A notable shift in portfolio composition occurred in Q4 2025, where the funds increased their allocation to resource stocks, moving away from previous investments in aviation and brokerage sectors [5]. Fund Management Insights - The flexibility of all-market selection funds allows managers to adjust their portfolios based on market conditions, which has proven beneficial in the current resource stock rally [6]. - The distinction between all-market selection funds and thematic funds is emphasized, with the former relying on manager judgment and timing rather than strict thematic exposure [6]. Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to differentiate between a fund's temporary holdings and its long-term investment strategy, as short-term performance may not reflect the fund's intended focus [8]. - The potential for "style drift" exists if investors purchase funds based on short-term gains without understanding their contractual investment mandates [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Huadu District of Guangzhou aims to achieve significant economic transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on four key areas: development pattern, industrial dynamics, urban functions, and ecological beauty [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Targets - Huadu District targets a GDP growth of 5.5% for the year, aiming to surpass 200 billion yuan in total output [2]. - The district plans to increase industrial output to over 250 billion yuan and fixed asset investment to exceed 70 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Development Achievements - Over the past five years, Huadu has transformed from a geographical gateway to a strategic hub, increasing its contribution to the city's economic growth from 5.1% in 2021 to a projected 6.6% by 2025 [4]. - The district has experienced significant population growth, surpassing 2.8 million residents, and has maintained a positive trend in enterprise registration capital and quantity for five consecutive years [5]. Group 3: Industrial Development Strategy - Huadu aims to strengthen its industrial base by developing three industries each worth over 100 billion yuan, including automotive, aviation, and new energy sectors [7]. - The automotive sector is expected to achieve a total output value of 100 billion yuan, with a 10% growth in parts production and an export target of 50,000 vehicles [7]. - The district will also enhance seven industries worth over 10 billion yuan and cultivate four industries worth over 1 billion yuan, focusing on areas like biomedicine and intelligent technology [7]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Expansion - Huadu plans to stimulate consumer demand by developing a comprehensive and diverse consumption system, targeting 25 million tourists and generating over 15 billion yuan in cultural and tourism consumption [8]. - The district will promote new sports consumption trends and create distinctive cultural tourism areas to enhance urban consumption vitality [8]. Group 5: Environmental Improvement Initiatives - Huadu is committed to improving its environment by establishing a service system that supports all elements and empowers various sectors, including initiatives like "ranking and signing" and a fast-track mechanism for enterprise requests [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior in China, where high savings rates coexist with a booming tourism market, indicating a preference for experiential spending over traditional asset ownership [2][9]. - The phenomenon of "lipstick effect" is evident, where consumers are opting for smaller, emotionally satisfying purchases during economic downturns, leading to record-high domestic travel expenditures during the Spring Festival [2][4]. - The younger generation, particularly Generation Z, is driving a transformation in consumption patterns, prioritizing experiences and emotional value over material possessions, which reflects a broader societal shift from ownership to experience [5][10]. Group 2 - The tourism industry is facing structural challenges, including oversupply and seasonal demand fluctuations, as evidenced by drastic price drops in accommodation following peak seasons [7][8]. - There is a growing emphasis on emotional consumption, with consumers seeking experiences that provide psychological relief, which is reshaping the tourism landscape [4][6]. - The need for innovation in service offerings is critical, as the market becomes saturated with similar experiences, necessitating differentiation to maintain pricing power and consumer interest [8][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors and companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in the market. [2][5] Economic News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan from the market. [3] - The overnight SHIBOR rate reported at 1.3680%, down by 1 basis point, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate decreased by 4 basis points to 1.4570%. [3] - The Supreme People's Court reported over 27,000 cases related to cross-border fraud, with significant sentences handed down to key criminal groups. [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed the feasibility of new frequency bands for IMT and future 6G technology at a recent international meeting. [3] - Heilongjiang Province's government report emphasized the reform of state-owned enterprises and support for private sector development. [3] - The establishment of a national quality inspection center for rare earth permanent magnet motors in Liaoning Province aims to enhance quality assurance in high-end manufacturing. [4] Company News - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a share buyback plan of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24.00 yuan per share. [5] - Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to enhance its core competitiveness and fund acquisitions totaling up to 1.882 billion yuan. [5] - Huylon New Materials is undergoing a significant change that may affect its control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock. [5] - Fangzheng Valve reported a revenue of 733 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.98%, with net profit down by 6.34%. [5] - Nanya New Materials achieved a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.52%, with net profit rising by 378.65% due to market demand recovery. [5] Transportation Industry Insights - In January 2026, domestic airline capacity decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 5.8% compared to December 2025, as airlines prepared for the Spring Festival. [7] - The overall passenger load factor for airlines improved by about 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December. [7] - During the Spring Festival holiday, national civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, with a flight completion rate of 95.8%, indicating growth compared to the previous year. [8] - International flight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in January, with a slight improvement in load factors, although some airlines faced challenges due to changes in the Japanese route. [9] - Baiyun Airport reported a significant increase in passenger throughput, while Shanghai Airport experienced a decline, attributed to shifts in travel demand. [10] - The report suggests focusing on large airlines for their earnings elasticity, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. [11]

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index opened with a gain of 0.37% and closed at 1485.86 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 83.5 billion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index opened with a gain of 0.25% and closed at 1843.20 points, with a total trading volume of about 269.1 billion yuan, also showing a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] - On February 26, 356 stocks in the Sci-Tech Board rose, accounting for approximately 58.94%, with semiconductor stocks leading the gains [1] Group 2 - The average increase of 604 stocks on the Sci-Tech Board was 0.98%, with an average turnover rate of 3.12% and a total trading volume of approximately 269.1 billion yuan [1] - Individual stock performance included Yuean New Materials, Oulai New Materials, and Jepu Te, which all reached a limit-up of about 20%, while Qianyan Biology saw a decline of 8.61%, the largest drop [1] - In terms of trading volume, Hanwujing had the highest at 16.035 billion yuan, while ST Pava had the lowest at 783.94 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].

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Group 1 - The Chinese yuan has been appreciating for nearly a year, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend and its impact on the public [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 11% over the past year, is a significant factor contributing to the yuan's strength [7] - The US's unpredictable policies and high tariffs have led to a loss of confidence in the dollar, resulting in a record trade surplus for China of $1.2 trillion last year [9][11] Group 2 - The psychological shift among domestic exporters has driven a surge in currency exchange, with bank settlement amounts reaching $311 billion in December alone [15] - China's foreign exchange reserves have risen to $3.399 trillion, the highest level since 2015, while the central bank has increased its gold holdings to 74.19 million ounces [17] - The appreciation of the yuan has tangible benefits for ordinary citizens, such as reduced costs for overseas travel and education, with significant savings compared to previous exchange rates [19][21] Group 3 - The impact of the yuan's appreciation on the stock market is notable, with companies like China Southern Airlines potentially seeing a 25% increase in profits for every 5% rise in the yuan [28] - The return of foreign capital is driven by the increased attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets, indicating a shift in market dynamics [29] - The long-term trend suggests a departure from the previous fear of the yuan crossing the 7.0 mark, with forecasts indicating a potential rise to 6.7 [31][35]