Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation in Shenzhen's Comprehensive Reform Pilot" aims to enhance financial services for the real economy, particularly focusing on technology and industry integration in finance [2][5]. Financial Services and Innovations - Shenzhen has been recognized as a significant financial center, with the "Opinions" emphasizing the need to improve mechanisms that incentivize financial services for the real economy [2]. - The "Technology Industry Financial Integration Pilot" is designed to empower technological innovation and industrial development, facilitating financial resources to support research and entrepreneurship [2][5]. - New financial products such as "Tengfei Loan" and "Technology Startup Loan" have been introduced to support small and micro enterprises [2]. Credit and Financing Mechanisms - The "Yuanqu Loan," a no-collateral credit product, has been launched to assist small and micro enterprises by leveraging various data points from industrial parks [3]. - As of April 2024, the Shenzhen "Specialized, Refined, Unique, and Innovative" board has listed 301 companies, with 80.73% being small and medium enterprises [3]. - The total loan balance for technology enterprises in Shenzhen reached 1.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% as of March 2025 [4]. Knowledge and Intellectual Property Financing - Shenzhen leads the nation in knowledge property asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance, with a total of 99 issuances amounting to 21.906 billion yuan, accounting for over half of the national total [6]. - The "Opinions" highlight the need to optimize the connection between debt and equity financing for technology enterprises, addressing challenges such as asset collateralization and risk assessment [7]. Support for Listing and Investment - The "Opinions" allow companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, promoting financial connectivity within the Greater Bay Area [8]. - There is a push for more long-term capital to support high-tech companies, especially those returning from overseas listings to the domestic market [9].

投向对科技创新、消费基础设施等战略新兴领域倾斜 自4月末中央政治局会议首次提出设立新型政策性金融工具以来，安徽、河南、湖南等多个省份迅速响 应，通过密集召开政策解读会、项目调度会，围绕多个重点领域加速谋划储备项目，全力将政策红利转 化为发展动能。 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如，在经济下行压力下，2022年7400亿元政策性开发性金融工具 应运而生，通过补充项目资本金、撬动配套融资，对重大项目形成精准支持。 综合各地政府召开的会议以及市场分析来看，此次工具与此前相比，在投向上有所创新。市场预计规模 约5000亿元左右，有望撬动6万亿至6.5万亿元有效投资，成为破解当前投资困局、推动经济高质量发展 的关键力量。 项目储备全面提速 自新型政策性金融工具政策推出以来，安徽、河南、湖南等多省份迅速行动，力求"吃透政策""靠前对 接"，抢抓这一重大政策机遇，把政策"含金量"转化为发展"实物量"。 在湖南省常德市6月3日召开的申报新型政策性金融工具政策解读暨工作部署会上，中国农业发展银行常 德市分行负责人详细介绍了支持全域土地综合整治工作的金融产品，并深入解读新型政策性金融工具相 关政策。会议提出，要充分发挥政策性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Yan Xiandong as the head of the People's Bank of China's Survey and Statistics Department marks a significant development, with a focus on enhancing the statistical work related to the financial "Five Major Articles" to support high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - Yan Xiandong has been appointed as the head of the Survey and Statistics Department after a vacancy of over a year, previously serving in various roles within the People's Bank system [1][3]. - His background includes leadership positions in the Ningxia and Inner Mongolia branches of the People's Bank, indicating extensive experience in financial management [3][4]. Group 2: Statistical Work Focus - The statistical work will focus on four key areas: comprehensive implementation of financial "Five Major Articles" statistics, ensuring data quality, providing guidance on statistical systems, and promoting data sharing [1][6]. - The People's Bank has established a coordination mechanism with multiple departments to implement a systematic statistical framework for the financial "Five Major Articles" [7][10]. Group 3: Statistical System and Standards - A new trial statistical system has been jointly issued by the People's Bank and other regulatory bodies, emphasizing comprehensive coverage and unified standards for statistical indicators [6][7]. - The system includes over 200 key statistical indicators covering various financial sectors, ensuring alignment with national standards and existing practices [6][7]. Group 4: Data Quality and Collaboration - Yan emphasizes that data quality is critical for financial statistics, serving as the foundation for accurate financial policy evaluation and decision-making [10]. - The collaboration between financial management departments and institutions is essential to uphold the integrity of data quality throughout the statistical process [10].

Group 1 - The A500 Index ETF has shown strong liquidity with a turnover rate of 6.19% and a transaction volume of 919 million yuan [3] - Over the past two weeks, the A500 Index ETF has seen a significant scale increase of 240 million yuan, ranking second among comparable funds [3] - In terms of shares, the A500 Index ETF has experienced a growth of 30.6 million shares in the past month, also ranking second among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the A500 Index ETF is 29.11 million yuan, with a total of 129 million yuan net inflow over the last nine trading days [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index account for 21.21% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and CATL [3] - From a long-term perspective, the economic fundamentals of China are showing resilience in high-quality development, enhancing the attractiveness of the A-share market for global asset allocation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on Chinese stocks due to the strengthening of the RMB against the USD, historically correlating with positive performance in the Chinese stock market [4] - The appreciation of the RMB may benefit the Chinese stock market through fundamental factors, risk premiums, and investment flow channels [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access the A-share 500 strong through the CSI A500 ETF linked fund [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 在我们跟踪的三个主要的外汇交易策略中，价值策略取代套息策略，成为了今年迄今为止最好的外汇交易策略。而套息策略继去年第三季度之后，在今年 4月份再度遭遇关税的外生冲击，该策略虽然仍为正收益，但高波动令其性价比在2025年显著回落。套息头寸较大的亚洲货币则在5月份继续面临平仓压 力。趋势策略则成为了三大策略中唯一亏损的策略。美元指数虽然从高位下跌了10%，但做空美元的负carry以及汇率短期波动的不确定性让"追涨杀跌"成 为了收益性相对较差的策略。 2025年迄今为止，全球外汇市场围绕着美国政府政策的各种不确定性展开交易。在1月特朗普正式上任后，美元指数在多重利空的影响下下跌了超过 10%。一季度美元的弱势源自于某些政策支票并未兑现所带来的特朗普交易退坡，而从二季度开始，多重利空继续推动美元破位下行。4月2日之后，我们 认为美元的下跌主要源自3方面的交易：一是关税对美国经济的不确定性的影响。与2018年的中美关税摩擦不同，美元指数与关税不确定性在今年4月之后 呈现反向的相关关系。而欧元、日元、瑞郎是规避关税风险的三个主要的避险货币，相对美元走势强劲。二是对"海湖庄园 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since May, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Despite the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, concerns about bank liabilities have increased, and the Sino-US trade agreement has also put some pressure on long-term bonds. However, the central bank's intention to stabilize funds is clear, and the expectation of restarting bond purchases is rising. In June, the interest rate curve is expected to steepen downward [2]. - Although there are still fluctuations in funds after the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates continues. In early June, funds have loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase is conducive to reducing unnecessary market fluctuations and releasing a signal of stabilizing the funds market. The market believes that the 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 also aims to supplement the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. Whether this is the case depends on whether the central bank conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June [2]. - Although DR007 was still above 1.5% last week, the overnight rate has dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The widening spread between the two may be related to the increase in bank lending. The overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. The inflection point of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may have appeared and is expected to continue to decline. - The central bank's disclosure of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in May has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Although the central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, it is difficult to disprove in the short term, and the decline in short - term interest rates may not be over [2][3]. - Recent high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The sales area of new and second - hand houses has declined, and the prices of black commodities remain weak. The export growth rate in May dropped to 4.8%. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will also create space for the long - end. In the short term, the curve may continue the bull - steepening trend. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [3]. Summary by Directory I. The central bank sends a signal to stabilize the market. The overnight rate is expected to remain low, and the inflection point of the CD rate may have appeared - Since March, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates has continued. In early June, funds loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase can reduce unnecessary market fluctuations and release a signal of stabilizing the funds market [7]. - The 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 supplements the medium - term liquidity of banks and is considered beneficial to alleviating the bank's liability pressure. However, considering that 1.2 trillion of outright reverse repurchases will mature in June, whether the central bank has the intention to further supplement liquidity depends on whether it conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June due to weak credit demand and a marginal decline in government bond supply [10]. - In the first week of June, DR007 remained above 1.5%, while the overnight rate dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The central bank seems to pay more attention to controlling the overnight rate, and the overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. With the overnight rate remaining low, the demand for CDs from non - bank institutions has been significantly released, and the CD rate is expected to continue to approach 1.6% [12][15][17]. II. The central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but it is difficult to disprove and still benefits the medium - and short - term bonds - The central bank's disclosure of the "Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal of Central Bank Tools in May 2025" is considered an attempt to increase policy transparency. However, since June 2024, the deviation between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency operations has increased significantly, and the relatively small changes in structural tools in May are difficult to explain this deviation. The relationship between excess reserves and bank lending has also weakened, so the disclosure of monthly information on central bank tools has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation [21][24]. - The disclosure of the scale of outright bond purchases and sales in the open market may not include maturity and roll - over. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Which reason is more likely needs to be observed from whether the relevant accounts continue to decline in May [26][28]. - Although the increase in the net purchase of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years by large - scale banks last week has led to an increase in the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it may also be the banks' own operations. The central bank's bond - buying in June cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but this expectation is difficult to disprove in the short term and is still beneficial to medium - and short - term bonds [30]. III. High - frequency data remains weak, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June - In May, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49% to 49.5%, slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern, which may be boosted by export - rush factors. However, overall, the recovery speed of production activities is still higher than that of demand, and the new export orders and new order indexes are still below the boom - bust line. The situation of enterprises reducing inventory through price cuts has not changed significantly [32]. - Domestic high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The marginal improvement in new - house sales in May was mainly concentrated in first - tier cities, and the data has weakened recently. The second - hand housing market has also cooled down. Indicators such as the apparent demand for rebar and the cement shipping rate are still at low levels in recent years. Although the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has risen significantly since late May, the increase in port container volume is not significant. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will create space for the long - end, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [35][48].

| 品种 | 加权利率(%) | 最新利率(%) | 平均回购期限(天) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3770 | 1.3466 | 1 | | DR007 | 1.5126 | 1.4500 | 6.91 | | DR014 | 1.5393 | 1.5500 | 12.75 | | DR021 | 1.5707 | 1.5800 | 18.04 | | DR1M | 1.6822 | 1.7000 | 29.69 | 银行间市场短期利率走低 不仅是DR007变动明显，6月9日，银行间市场七天期质押式回购加权利率（即R007）跌3.85基点至1.4938%，创2024年10月12日以来新低。银行间市场隔夜 质押式回购加权利率早盘跌4.19基点至1.3705%，创2024年12月30日以来新低。 北京商报记者了解到，银行间市场七天期质押式回购加权利率，即R007，是全市场机构（包括银行、券商、基金等）以各类债券（含信用债）为抵押的7天 期回购利率，该数据反映了市场整体流动性水平，受信用风险、抵押品质量影响较大。 与之相关的七天期存款类金融机构质押式回购利率， ...

回踩入场，最怕的就是真反转；突破入场，最怕的就是假突破。 在顺大势下，这些担心的"真反 转"和"假突破"，都已经变为小概率事件。我们不能为小概率事件缩手缩脚，而要为大概率系统严格执 行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.09) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义中 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.42 | 8 | 11/2 | 2. 00 | 115 | 67710. 16 | 213. 67 | 91.51 | | R007 | 1.54 | -1 | Non/ 1 | 2. 05 | 0 | 5248. 91 | -894. 45 | 7.09 | | R014 | 1.59 | -1 | 1 /VI | 2. 00 | 218 | 759. 37 | 115. 90 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the continuous deepening of China's green finance system, with local pilot projects accelerating, market scale steadily expanding, and innovative products emerging, providing strong financial support for the "dual carbon" goals [1]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics - In the first five months of 2025, numerous green finance policies were introduced, with central and local efforts working in tandem to accelerate the formation of a multi-level green finance system [2]. - Shanghai has established a "1+N+X" green finance organizational structure, while Jiangsu has launched a "1+N+N" transformation financial support directory targeting eight high-carbon industries [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission released a new version of the "Green Technology Promotion Directory," covering 112 low-carbon technologies [2]. - China successfully issued 6 billion yuan in green sovereign bonds on the London Stock Exchange, indicating strong international market recognition of Chinese green assets [2]. Group 2: Market Data - In the first five months of 2025, China's green finance market maintained high activity levels, with 236 new green bonds issued, totaling 411.03 billion yuan [3]. - The balance of green loans reached 40.61 trillion yuan by the end of March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.2% [3]. - The national carbon market saw a trading volume of 22.74 million tons and a transaction value of 1.751 billion yuan from January to May [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Product Diversification - In May 2025, several innovative green finance products were launched, including the first "green + rural revitalization + dual basin" labeled bond [5]. - Agricultural Development Bank introduced the "twin green bond" mechanism, exploring market comparisons between green and ordinary bonds [5]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank launched a multi-currency carbon-neutral offshore bond, focusing on clean transportation and renewable energy projects [5]. Group 4: Outlook - Green finance is becoming a key engine for high-quality economic development, with expectations for further advancements in climate investment and financing trials, unified ESG standards, and continuous industrialization of green technologies [6][7].