1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, with an unchanged oversupply pattern and approaching lower costs, being more affected by macro - sentiment. Stainless steel prices may stop falling and rebound in the short term, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, and the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 7 consecutive times, also influenced by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,620 yuan/ton and closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 196,852 lots, and the open interest was 98,903 lots, a daily change of - 10,364. Overnight, LME nickel prices rose 2.04% to $15,280/ton. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly between 120,620 - 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 121,690 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan/ton or 1.11%. During the day session, it continued to rise, reaching a high of 122,690 yuan/ton, a two - week high. However, the open interest decreased by about 9.5% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 had transactions. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mine quotations were firm, and the impact of rainfall on shipping efficiency was small. Downstream nickel - iron had new transactions, but iron plants were still cautious and price - pressing in nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore was expected to fall by $0.2 - 0.3, and the current mainstream premium remained at + 24, with the September (Phase 1) premium likely to remain unchanged [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,500 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was a bit light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,025 (- 61.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (72) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,526 lots, and the open interest was 128,，304 lots, a daily change of - 5,355. Overnight, boosted by the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weakening dollar, the main contract quickly rose to 12,915 yuan/ton after opening at 12,850 yuan/ton, then fluctuated narrowly around 12,870. During the day session, it was driven up slightly by Shanghai nickel prices but then fell back due to the weak spot market, closing at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.12% [3]. - **Spot**: The trading heat in the spot market rebounded slightly as the futures market stabilized. Traders' quotations were still cautious as downstream acceptance of high prices was low despite approaching the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 480 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.00 yuan/nickel point to 940.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term stainless steel price strategy: mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term supply and demand are both increasing, the surplus pattern remains unchanged. The upside of nickel prices is limited, while the downside is supported by costs. Maintain a sideways view on Shanghai nickel, and consider going long when the price retraces to the cost line during the peak seasons. For stainless steel, industry demand remains weak, and steel enterprises adjust short - term changes through production and inventory. The pattern of wide - range sideways movement at the bottom is hard to change [67][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - Not elaborated in the report 3.2全球供需平衡 - From 2020 to 2025E, global primary nickel supply and demand are both increasing. In 2025E, primary nickel supply is expected to be 3690000 tons, and demand is expected to be 3580000 tons, showing a supply - surplus situation [3] 3.3新能源产业链 3.3.1中国新能源汽车产销数据 - In July 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July 2025, cumulative production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 39.2% and 38.5% [9][10] 3.3.2动力电池 - In July 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. Sales were 127.2GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9GWh, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [14] 3.3.3硫酸镍价格稳中有升 - In July 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 194700 tons, and metal output was 42800 tons. In August 2025, it is expected to be 43000 metal tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 27200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week, and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate is priced at 28250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [17] 3.4不锈钢产业链 3.4.1镍矿 - Nickel ore prices and freight rates remained unchanged from last week. On August 21, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.0585 million wet tons, a 10.11% increase. In July 2025, nickel ore imports were 5005800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.16% and a year - on - year increase of 43.63% [20][23] 3.4.2镍铁 - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight increase. In July 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 22900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%. In July 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 836000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.7% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [26][29][32] 3.4.3不锈钢 - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton on average in four regions this week. In July, stainless steel crude steel output was 3.2108 million tons. On August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a 1.28 - million - ton increase [40][45][48] 3.5纯镍市场 3.5.1电解镍产量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel output was 36151 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.74% and a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. In August 2025, it is estimated to be 37760 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 33.38% [56] 3.5.2精炼镍进出口量 - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38164.223 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 124.36% and a year - on - year increase of 798.94%. Exports were 15545.572 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 53.27% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [59] 3.5.3库存情况 - LME inventory decreased by 1914 tons to 209748 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 19 tons to 26943 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel was 39937 tons, a 1349 - ton decrease from last week [62]

Group 1 - Nickel prices showed a weak fluctuation on Thursday, with SMM 1 nickel quoted at 121,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 200 CNY/ton; Jinchuan nickel at 122,350 CNY/ton, up by 250 CNY/ton; and electrolytic nickel at 119,950 CNY/ton, rising by 150 CNY/ton [1] - On August 22, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract closed at 119,610 CNY/ton, with a decline of 0.48%, reaching a high of 120,080 CNY/ton and a low of 119,230 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 111,254 lots [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported nickel registered warrants at 201,750 tons and canceled warrants at 7,998 tons, with total nickel inventory increasing by 150 tons to 209,748 tons [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported nickel warehouse receipts at 22,588 tons, an increase of 29 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] - According to Dongwu Futures research, the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association announced that the nickel ore RKAB approval quota reached 364 million tons, exceeding market expectations, indicating a shift from a tight to a loose nickel ore supply situation [5] - The recent decline in nickel ore prices has weakened support for downstream industries, with high supply and inventory putting overall pressure on nickel prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 21, the main contract of Shanghai nickel trended downward, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, reduced nickel ore arrivals last week, and inventory at ports. Nickel iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production was expected to increase in August, and export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules rose, and alloy and electroplating demands were stable. Inventory increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. With a loose fundamental situation for pure nickel and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations being inconsistent, nickel prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 21, the main contract of stainless steel trended downward, with decreased trading volume and increased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium widened. Inventory at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (a decrease of 11,600 tons). In terms of supply, stainless - steel production schedules increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, the price of high - nickel pig iron rose, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained stable. Currently, macro - sentiment had a significant impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to the fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate following macro - factors, and it was recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary of Related Data Nickel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 90,715 lots (+27,039), and the open interest was 102,385 lots (+51,529). The LME 3 - month nickel official price decreased by 0.45%. The basis (spot - to - futures) was 1,270 yuan, an increase of 2150 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of nickel ore, including Philippine laterite nickel ore of different grades, remained stable. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless - Steel Futures - On August 21, the closing price of the near - month contract of Shanghai stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 99,736 lots (-50,000), and the open interest was 138,810 lots (+3,046). The basis (spot - to - futures) was 880 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - The prices of 304 - series and 316 - series stainless - steel products in the spot market were mostly stable, with some minor changes in inventory. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [2]. Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventory, while remaining flat in the bonded area. The inventory of stainless steel at the SHFE decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week [2].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,490 yuan/ton and closed at 120,330 yuan/ton, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest was 55,967 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is about to switch to the 2510 contract. The night - session of the main contract opened and quickly rose to 121,450 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, then fell to 120,140 yuan/ton and finally closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 78,139 lots, and the open interest was 62,507 lots. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 120,490 yuan, a high of 120,950 yuan, a low of 120,050 yuan, and finally closed at 120,330 yuan, down 450 yuan or 0.37%. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest decreased to 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots from the night - session. On August 18, the LME nickel price closed at $15,095/ton, down 0.66%, and further fell to $15,110/ton on August 19, with the lowest intraday reaching $15,050, approaching the key support level of $15,000 [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price of nickel ore is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly $32, and the mine - end price has a slight upward trend. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, and iron plants are still in losses, so they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in August decreased slightly by $0.03 - $0.04; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second - phase of August to decline due to thin profits [3]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak during the day, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises did not change significantly. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were stable. Driven by the ex - factory price of Jinchuan resources, the premium increased slightly. Russian nickel resources have been replenished recently, and the spot shortage has eased, with the spot premium decreasing slightly. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 (-210.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,328 (-1,086) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, the nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment, but the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,885 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest was 133,538 lots [4]. - The night - session of the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,015 yuan/ton, then rose to 13,070 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, and finally closed at 13,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low was 12,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the bulls' tentative rebound was suppressed by the bears. The trading volume was 121,765 lots, and the open interest was 134,400 lots, a slight decrease from the previous day, showing that the long and short funds chose to wait and see after the game. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 13,000 yuan/ton, a high of 13,025 yuan/ton, a low of 12,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 12,885 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.07%. The price broke through the key support level of 12,900 yuan, triggering some stop - loss orders. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest decreased to 133,538 lots, a decrease of 862 lots from the night - session, showing obvious signs of capital leaving [5]. - In the spot market, affected by the sharp decline of the futures market, the price - holding sentiment of spot traders has weakened. Coupled with the continued weak trading in the previous days and the increasing pressure to sell at the end of the month, the quotes have loosened and declined slightly. However, affected by the market psychology of buying on rising and not on falling, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment has further intensified, and the trading situation has become even lighter. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,075 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,075 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 260 - 410 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 927.0 yuan/nickel point [6]. Strategy - Currently, it is still in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand, and the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel industry is experiencing a profound internal contradiction, with nickel exports surpassing coal for the first time, marking a peak in the country's mineral downstream integration strategy initiated in 2014. However, the world's largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding, has paused some nickel smelting lines due to global oversupply and profit pressure, indicating structural risks in Indonesia's nickel-centric industrial strategy [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Nickel Industry Dynamics - In H1 2025, Indonesia's nickel export value reached $16.5 billion, exceeding coal's $14.4 billion, making nickel the largest export commodity [3]. - The success of Indonesia's nickel industry, driven by a decade-long integration strategy, has led to a saturation point in value growth, prompting the government to accelerate a complex industrial transformation towards a complete new energy industry chain [4][6]. - The government plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas from 272 million tons to 150 million tons by 2025 to stabilize prices and encourage investment in high-value products like nickel hydroxide and nickel sulfate [16]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Transition - Indonesia's manufacturing sector has been underperforming, contributing only 19% to employment in 2023, significantly lower than manufacturing-led countries like Vietnam, raising concerns about falling into a "middle-income trap" [9][10]. - The "Making Indonesia 4.0" strategy aims to increase manufacturing's GDP contribution from under 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on automotive, electronics, chemicals, textiles, and food and beverage sectors [11]. - The strategy seeks to replicate and upgrade the successful model established in the nickel industry, leveraging Indonesia's resource advantages to attract foreign investment in downstream processing [12][14]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The electric vehicle market in Indonesia is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic EV sales soaring by 215.2% in H1 2025, and BYD leading with a market share of nearly 39% [23][24]. - The government aims to have 1.3 million electric two-wheelers on the road by 2030, contributing 5-8 GWh of battery demand annually [28]. - The RUPTL plan outlines a target of adding 10.3 GW of battery storage capacity, creating a significant market for energy storage solutions [29]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Investment Challenges - Indonesia's aging infrastructure poses significant challenges, with the national grid unable to effectively absorb renewable energy from remote areas, necessitating the construction of nearly 48,000 kilometers of new transmission lines [37]. - The unique "Indonesian model" requires companies bringing foreign capital to also build infrastructure, leading to high upfront capital expenditures and creating barriers for smaller participants [38]. - The establishment of the INA sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key player in reducing project risks for foreign investments, signaling a shift towards a more favorable financing environment for emerging industries [39]. Group 5: ESG Considerations and Future Outlook - Indonesia's green energy transition heavily relies on high-carbon coal power, raising significant ESG risks that could impact product marketability in regions with strict carbon footprint regulations [46]. - Collaborative projects, such as the one between Greeenme and Vale, aim to establish environmentally friendly nickel processing facilities, aligning with global ESG standards [47]. - Despite challenges, Indonesia is on track to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem, encompassing upstream resource extraction, midstream material refining, and downstream battery manufacturing, positioning itself as a critical player in the global battery industry [40][49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Under the fundamental logic, it fluctuates in a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent events in Indonesia, so be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation [4]. - Stainless steel: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price fluctuates [5]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [34]. - Polysilicon: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips [35]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply is weak while demand is strong, and the price is strengthening [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The marginal operation of the fundamentals is relatively stable. The global refined nickel's visible inventory shows a gentle increase, dragging down the upper limit of nickel prices. The long - term low - cost supply increment may change the cost curve pattern. In the short - term and the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation may be at the window boundary of the ferronickel conversion path. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upper limit of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The overall decline of the ore price is relatively mild, and the support has weakened slightly, but it is still difficult for the price to fall sharply. The hype of nickel ore contradictions may decrease, limiting the elasticity of nickel prices [4]. - **Market News Impact**: Indonesia may crack down on illegal mining, change the RKAB approval cycle, and re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula. These events increase the risk of short - selling at low levels and add uncertainty to the nickel price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated. The long - side logic focuses on the decline of inventory at a high level, the reduction of factory inventory pressure in July, and the potential reduction in supply due to policy tightening. The short - side logic comes from the actual supply - demand situation, where the alleviation of pressure needs to be continuous, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Social inventory has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the factory inventory pressure in July has decreased. The stainless steel production in August is 3.25 million tons, with a marginal increase. The production in Indonesia in August is 420,000 tons [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week, and the spot price increased. The futures price first rose, then fell, and then rose again, influenced by other varieties and macro - sentiment. The spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in the southwest and northwest regions had some resumptions, but the rhythm was slow. On the demand side, the short - term demand of downstream industries increased marginally, with the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supporting consumption [31][32]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large - scale resumption, the futures price may follow the coking coal futures, but the long - term fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high levels and take profits at low levels [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated widely this week, showing a relatively strong trend overall. The spot market had some transactions, but the price did not show obvious improvement [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production remained at a high level, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand from the silicon wafer side improved, and the production in August increased slightly compared with July [32][33]. - **Market Outlook**: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips. The spot market's signing is approaching the end, and the terminal demand may decrease in September. It is recommended to take profit on the PS2511 - PS2512 inter - period positive spread and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis and the spread between contracts changed accordingly [54]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, production in Jiangxi and Qinghai was affected, and there were concerns about future production. On the demand side, the downstream production demand in August improved significantly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of futures warrants increased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to supply disturbances, the lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month. If the downstream demand in September strengthens, the price will continue to be strong. The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [56][57].