| 观点与策略 | | --- | 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保事件发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：反内卷核心标的，低买思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,790 | 30 | 710 | 3,740 | -2,240 | -3,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,500 | 75 | 135 | 210 | -35 | -355 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 107,217 | 3,895 | 21, ...

2025年12月07日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 弱势震荡，反弹空间有限 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 1.1 行情回顾——期货主力合约价格走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 2025/10/31 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)( ...

Group 1 - The core issue lies not in the nickel mines themselves or the presence of foreign investment, but in policy choices that determine whether the value of resources remains in the country [13] - Indonesia possesses nearly 60% of the world's underground nickel reserves, yet the reality is that foreign capital has extracted the core value chain, leaving local workers with low-skill jobs and half-finished factories [4] - The nickel industry, which should be a stronghold for Indonesia, has not yielded the expected benefits from the battery sector, with only two local battery factories contributing less than 0.4% of global capacity [6] Group 2 - President Prabowo's policies have led to significant budget cuts, including a $19 billion reduction in public works funding, resulting in increased local taxes and public discontent [3] - The establishment of the Danantara sovereign fund aims to centralize control over state-owned enterprises, but raises concerns about transparency and accountability [9] - Education spending is only 2.3% of GDP, while a significant portion of this budget is consumed by parliamentary salaries, indicating a neglect of long-term capacity building [6] Group 3 - The focus on short-term political gains has compromised long-term talent development and public infrastructure, leading to a situation where immediate benefits are prioritized over sustainable growth [8] - Environmental costs are significant, with Indonesia's nickel industry producing carbon emissions 7 to 10 times higher than the global average, and the lack of skilled workers and technology hampers effective emission reduction [11] - Attracting foreign investment should not equate to relinquishing control; the sovereign fund can be a tool or a trap, and without transparency and accountability, it risks becoming a means of governance that harms national interests [14]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The nickel market has a supply surplus and high inventories, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market has low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and stainless - steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,870 yuan/ton and closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 103,322 (-9,126) lots, and the open interest was 118,041 (-577) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a weak oscillation trend. After the recent macro - sentiment market ended, the fundamentals remained in a surplus situation, and the nickel price entered a narrow oscillation range [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, and the prices were weakly stable. The market was basically in a situation of having prices but no goods, waiting for new tenders from mines. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. Downstream iron plants were in a loss, and had a price - pressing mentality when purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants planned to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium went to +25, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,096 (+2,501) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] - **Strategy** - With high inventories and a continuous supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy for single - side trading is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless - steel opened at 12,465 yuan/ton and closed at 12,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 84,742 (+4,381) lots, and the open interest was 96,076 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless - steel showed a slight downward oscillation trend, performing weakly. Caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, both long and short sides lacked a clear direction, and market trading willingness was low [3] - After several days of small rebounds, the stainless - steel spot market returned to normal, with stable spot quotes and a few cases of selling at a discount. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 881.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound. For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to stay in a low - level震荡 state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,050 yuan/ton and closed at 117,870 yuan/ton, a change of 0.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 112,448 (+23,926) lots, and the open interest was 118,618 (-3,306) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued a slight rebound, supported by the improved liquidity expectation as the probability of a 25 - bp Fed rate cut in December approached 90%. However, fundamentals suppressed the price, resulting in limited rebound strength with an amplitude of about 1.12%. In November, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a 14.85% month - on - month decrease, narrowing the surplus situation [1] - The nickel ore market was quiet with a wait - and - see attitude. Nickel ore prices were under pressure due to recent lower transactions and weak downstream ferronickel prices. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and northern mines had not started new tenders. Downstream iron plants, facing losses, tried to lower raw - material prices, and some planned production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium was +25 [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands were generally stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 50 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 32,595 (+244) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 80,361 (-14,747) lots, and the open interest was 96,947 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel continued to be led by the Shanghai nickel price and showed a slight rebound, but the amplitude was only 65 yuan/ton, the smallest in recent times. Fundamentals changed little recently, and the continuous rebound trend might continue due to the increased Fed rate - cut expectation, but the rebound strength was expected to be limited [3] - Market confidence had increased recently, and transactions improved to some extent. However, due to fundamental constraints, spot trading cooled today compared with yesterday, and quotes were basically flat. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For nickel trading, the recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations [1][3]. - Given low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for stainless steel trading is neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2601 opened at 117,080 yuan/ton and closed at 117,850 yuan/ton, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 145,829 (+59,900) lots, and the open interest was 122,891 (-4,444) lots. It showed an oscillating upward trend, staying in the 116,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton range. The 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish medium - term trend. The significant increase in trading volume showed increased divergence between bulls and bears without a clear breakthrough. The enhanced market expectation of the Fed's policy shift and the weakening US dollar index provided support for nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was dominated by a wait - and - see sentiment, with prices remaining stable. An Indonesian mine won the bid for 1.4% nickel ore in the Philippines at 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, with good shipping efficiency. Weak nickel - iron prices and受挫 iron - mill profits led to cautious nickel - ore procurement, and some iron mills considered production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (first phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade nickel - ore prices decreased, and the premium also had downward potential [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading of refined nickel was okay, and the spot premiums of various refined - nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722 (-587) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 254,760 (-690) tons [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,375 yuan/ton and closed at 12,445 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,599 (+40,379) lots, and the open interest was 108,469 (-4,171) lots. It rebounded slightly driven by nickel prices but failed to break through the recent oscillation range. The significant increase in trading volume showed intensified multi - empty game without a clear trend breakthrough, and the decrease in open interest indicated that some funds took profits, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - **Spot**: Low prices attracted some downstream rigid - demand purchases, which were mainly for replenishment. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 350 - 550 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Group 1 - The US-Switzerland tariff negotiations collapsed due to the US's demand for control over Swiss investments, which Switzerland rejected as an infringement on its sovereignty [2][3] - Switzerland's economy, heavily reliant on financial services and high-end manufacturing, is less dependent on the US compared to Japan, which agreed to similar terms due to its security reliance on the US [5] - The US imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss exports earlier this year, significantly impacting Switzerland's pharmaceutical and precision instrument sectors, prompting urgent negotiations [2][3] Group 2 - The US's trade strategy in Southeast Asia faces challenges, as seen in agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia that include "poison pill" clauses aimed at countering Chinese influence [7] - Malaysia and Cambodia's leaders emphasized that their agreements with the US do not target specific countries, aiming to maintain their economic ties with China [7] - Indonesia's outright rejection of similar US conditions highlights the limitations of US pressure on medium-sized economies, as they seek to protect their economic sovereignty [9] Group 3 - The breakdown of US-Switzerland negotiations and China's proactive response in Southeast Asia indicate a shift in global trade dynamics, moving away from unilateralism towards a more balanced approach [9] - The evolving trade landscape suggests that multiple powers will increasingly influence trade rules, reducing uncertainty and fostering cooperation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel ore benchmark prices have slightly declined, but the premium operation has been relatively stable. In the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, the transaction center of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the raw material support has weakened, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market has shown a sluggish performance. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material side is tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious, with the output of primary nickel increasing month - on - month in December. Referring to the cost support of SMM's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110,000 yuan/ton, one can consider making low - position layouts and waiting for the realization of positive factors, but should be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly decline: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel both fell 3.7%, and most product prices in the industry chain declined. For example, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped from 925 yuan/nickel point last month to 883 yuan/nickel point this month, a decrease of 42 yuan/nickel point [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly changes: LME inventory decreased by 3,744 tons to 254,760 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 239 tons to 33,309 tons; social inventory increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons; and bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,200 tons [8][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Nickel ore**: The domestic trade price of 1.2% nickel ore in Indonesia remained at $23/wet ton, and that of 1.6% remained at $52.5/wet ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5/wet ton, and the price of Philippine nickel ore remained at $8.0/wet ton [5][22]. - **Refined nickel**: The output of refined nickel in December is expected to increase by 6.2% month - on - month to 27,400 tons [5][24]. - **Nickel iron**: The purchase price of large nickel - iron plants is 880 yuan/nickel point. Traders' inquiries are relatively active, but factory quotations are scarce. There may be production cuts in December [5][26]. - **Intermediate products**: The weekly average spot prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte have slightly declined. Recently, some intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park have been affected by tailings dam stacking issues, which are expected to last until the first quarter of next year. SMM expects that the MHP output in December will decrease by about 6,000 nickel tons [5][29]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The economic efficiency of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, and high - grade nickel matte has declined [5][34]. 3.4 Demand - **New energy**: In December 2025, the estimated output of ternary precursors in China is 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 23.09%. Domestic and export demands have declined, and the output is expected to drop. The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons. In November, the estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars is about 2.25 million, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, the retail volume of new energy vehicles can reach about 1.35 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% [6][46]. - **Stainless steel**: Most spot prices of stainless steel have declined this month, and the spot premium has dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country, measured by 89 warehouses, is 1.086 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series has increased by 10,000 tons to 669,000 tons. The estimated crude steel production in November is 3.4551 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. In October, the import of stainless steel increased by 3% month - on - month to 120,000 tons, the export decreased by 14% month - on - month to 358,000 tons, and the net export was 233,000 tons. The positions of raw materials and finished products have fluctuated, and the profit has changed little [6][8]. 3.5 Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [91]. 3.6 Options - Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and the put - call ratios of option trading volume and open interest related to Shanghai nickel is provided [96][101].

Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - December is traditionally a slow season for lithium consumption, but downstream demand has exceeded expectations, leading to a forecast of high lithium prices [1] - In November, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased by 3% and 2% respectively, with limited growth expected in December [1] - Demand for lithium remains strong, with November orders for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing by 4.7% and decreasing by 0.2% respectively, while December orders are expected to remain robust [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - The market experienced a shortage of over 10,000 tons in November, with a projected shortfall of over 5,000 tons in December, indicating continued expectations for inventory depletion [1] - Lithium carbonate inventory has fallen below 120,000 tons, with lithium salt plant inventories decreasing from nearly 60,000 tons to 24,000 tons since mid-year [1] - The high demand expected in the second quarter of next year will likely lead to a rebound in prices due to insufficient inventory levels [1] Group 3: Nickel Market Overview - The LME nickel price is currently at $14,820 per ton, reflecting a 1.4% increase from the previous week, while the SHFE nickel price rose by 2.7% to 117,080 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to reach 40,500 tons this week, with an increase in operating rates due to support from processing and some manufacturers resuming production [3] - Demand for nickel sulfate remains weak, with low purchasing intentions from downstream precursor companies, leading to a reliance on just-in-time orders [3] Group 4: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - Rare earth prices have shown fluctuations, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 556,500 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from last week, while dysprosium oxide decreased by 1.01% to 1,470,000 yuan per ton [5] - Supply constraints are evident as some separation enterprises face operational issues, leading to tighter availability of oxides [5] - Demand from magnetic material companies remains stable, with increasing orders from both domestic and overseas markets, providing solid support for the market [5]