【 摘要 】华泰柏瑞基金指出，利率敏感性较高的港股科技板块更受到资金青睐，尤其恒生科技 指数。摩根资产管理认为，美联储年内再降息2次的概率提升，美元可能继续走弱。 一、焦点锐评 1．美联储如期降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25% 当地时间9月17日，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%-4.25%，为年内首次 降息，也是时隔9个月后重启降息。同时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储 备金利率25个基点至4%。美联储点阵图显示，2025、2026、2027年底和长期联邦基金利率预期中 值分别为3.6%、3.4%、3.1%、3.0%（6月预期为3.9%、3.6%、3.4%、3.0%），2028年底联邦基金 利率预期中值为3.1%。 【解读】中金公司李求索等指出，美联储降息可能缓解我国货币政策外部掣肘，同时带来弱势美 元并伴随全球资金再配置。人民币资产或受益于全球货币体系碎片化和多元化的双重红利，尤其 是海外资金回流及全球再平衡资金导入。此外，全球资金流动性释放对美元汇率产生下拉效果， 进一步促进资金配置转向中国资本市场。 二、权益市场 1.国信证券：风格或阶段性向价值平衡 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 国金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于2025年5月26日发行了2025年度第三期短期融资券，发 行金额为人民币5亿元，票面利率为1.65%，发行期限为116天，兑付日为2025年9月19日。详见公司于 2025年5月27日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关于2025年度第三期短期融资券发 行结果公告》以及2025年9月12日登载于中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）、上海清算所网站 （www.shclearing.com）的《国金证券股份有限公司2025年度第三期短期融资券兑付公告》。 国金证券股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二五年九月二十二日 2025年9月19日，本公司兑付了该期短期融资券本息共计人民币502,621,917.81元。 特此公告。 ...

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [1][2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions [1] - The globalization of China's manufacturing leaders is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [2][3] - Recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risks, while a weak dollar and overseas rate cuts favor China's monetary easing [2] - The market is anticipated to experience adjustments that present opportunities, with A/H indices likely to reach new highs [2][3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase, with active trading and a positive funding environment [3][4] - The key to sustaining the market's upward momentum lies in the profitability of investments, with a focus on sectors like domestic computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3][4] - The market is still in a bull phase, with three main drivers for the current upward trend remaining unchanged [4][5] Group 4 - Foreign capital continues to flow into the Chinese stock market, with significant inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6] - The recent decline in high-priced options indicates a cautious approach among investors regarding the upward potential of the market [5][6] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for the long term, despite short-term adjustments [5][6] Group 5 - The market is characterized by sector rotation rather than a simple switch from high to low positions, focusing on industry trends and profitability [6][9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities within sectors that are experiencing growth and have not been fully priced in [9][10] - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market transitions into the fourth quarter [10][11] Group 6 - The recovery of cash flow in export-oriented manufacturing is expected to continue, driven by anti-involution policies and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is likely to be systematically reshaped [11] - The main investment themes include hard currency assets, hard technology, and manufacturing benefiting from anti-involution policies [11]

After President Donald Trump shocked global markets with his aggressive tariffs earlier this year, investors turned away from the U.S. and went elsewhere—but the scales are tilting back again. U.S. stocks have made furious rebounds, setting fresh record highs and eroding the outperformance that European markets have enjoyed for much of this year. The S&P 500 is now up 13% year to date and the Nasdaq is up 17%. As recently as late June, when the broad market index had retaken its prior all-time high, bo ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant inflow of over 2 billion yuan into SMIC, making it the top stock in net financing purchases, which subsequently led to a nearly 12% increase in its stock price [1][3] - The overall market situation shows that leveraged funds are active, with nearly 2,000 stocks receiving net purchases, and over 1,100 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, while around 200 stocks surpassed 100 million yuan [3] - SMIC's strong performance is attributed to the favorable policies in the semiconductor industry, increasing demand for AI chips, and a recovery in consumer electronics orders, positioning it as a leader in domestic chip manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The article contrasts the stocks that experienced net selling, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Zijin Mining, indicating that funds are reallocating towards more stable investments in hard technology leaders, major financial institutions, and top companies in the new energy sector [4] - The article warns ordinary investors against blindly following the significant purchase of SMIC shares without understanding the underlying long-term logic of the semiconductor industry [4] - The future stability of leveraged funds in hard technology leaders like SMIC will depend on the industry's fundamentals, including order increases and technological breakthroughs [4]

2025年9月：牛市的终结？一场席卷交易所的寒潮 我随即联系了一家专注于市场流动性的中介机构。接电话的是一位年轻的操盘手，他甫一开口便带着几分凉意："都凉了吧。" 紧接着，他报出了一些大客 户的买卖价差。然而，在他不经意间透露的细节中，我却捕捉到了破绽：那些看似庞大的交易指令，并非真实地为建立新仓位，而是带有明显的短期情绪操 纵意图，目的在于通过压制股价，将某个关键的心理价位向下挤压，从而诱使散户在恐慌中出局，为后续的低位吸筹铺平道路。 在市场上，中信证券常被视为重要的风向标。当它一路高歌猛进时，它便是市场的旗手，展现出先知先觉的敏锐；而当它显露颓势时，其下跌的步伐也同样 具有领先性。9月那几日，中信证券的盘面出现了令人担忧的裂痕：连续五日的下跌、成交量的畸形放大，以及盘中多次出现的、旨在压低股价的大额卖 单。这一连串的动作并非孤立的事件，更像是有人在一点点地扼杀多头喘息的空间。 换一个角度，我们不妨深入探究散户的心理。早盘时，他们或许还怀揣着央行可能跟进宽松政策的希望，然而午后目睹着盘面被无情碾压，许多人开始怀疑 是否存在信息不对称，是不是有人已经提前洞悉了内幕？当卖单如潮水般涌现，触发出止损盘，那种从高位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive set of policies by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize growth, markets, and expectations, signaling strong financial support for high-quality economic development [1] - The A-share market has shown increased activity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan and margin financing balances surpassing 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a solid foundation for market stability and a vibrant ecosystem [1][2] - The implementation of a "1+N" policy system has led to breakthroughs in funding supply, market structure, and ecological construction, enhancing the market's attractiveness and inclusivity [1][4] Group 2 - Key indicators show that the A-share market's vitality is being continuously released, with a significant increase in trading activity and investor participation [2] - The margin financing balance has risen to 24,024.65 billion yuan, reflecting a growing optimism among investors [2] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August reached 2.6503 million, a 34.97% month-on-month increase and a 165% year-on-year increase, indicating heightened investor interest [2] Group 3 - The continuous rise in financing balances and private fund sizes, along with active individual investor account openings, suggests a robust inflow of new capital into the market [3] - The collaborative effect of various policies has provided solid support for market stabilization and confidence restoration [4] Group 4 - The foundation of market stability has been reinforced by the implementation of significant financial policies since September 24 of the previous year, enhancing macro policy coordination [4] - Multiple policy initiatives have been introduced to improve market resilience and depth, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and new regulations for major asset restructuring [4][5] Group 5 - The push for long-term capital to enter the market is crucial for enhancing market vitality and stability, with new guidelines aimed at addressing issues related to insufficient long-term capital [5] - Legal measures to combat fraudulent activities and improve market order are being implemented to foster a high-quality market environment [5] Group 6 - Future policies are expected to focus on deepening capital market reforms and enhancing the investment value of listed companies, which will further strengthen market stability and attractiveness [6] - Recommendations include improving the regulatory framework for long-term capital investments and enhancing the quality of listed companies [7][8]

● 本报记者杨梓岩 9月19日晚间，*ST广道披露公告称，公司于当日收到北交所送达的《关于拟终止公司股票上市的事先 告知书》，北交所拟决定终止公司股票上市交易。 《告知书》显示，9月12日，*ST广道公告称，收到证监会《行政处罚决定书》。《行政处罚决定书》 认定，公司披露的2018年至2023年年度报告、2024年半年度报告及《2024年度向特定对象发行股票募集 说明书(草案)》存在虚假记载。前述事实触及《北京证券交易所股票上市规则》第10.5.1条第(七)项规定 的重大违法强制退市情形，北交所拟决定终止公司股票上市交易。 虚增营收与成本 《行政处罚决定书》明确，2018年至2024年上半年，*ST广道通过制作虚假购销合同、发票、银行回 单、发货通知单及入库单等方式，虚构销售和采购业务，虚增营收与成本的规模和比例高企。 数据显示，2018年、2019年、2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年以及2024年上半年，公司分别虚增营业 收入1.43亿元、1.92亿元、2.23亿元、2.49亿元、3.04亿元、2.83亿元、0.72亿元，占当期报告记载金额 的比例分别为87.34%、95.39%、98.96% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to catalyze a global asset reallocation, impacting both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with emerging markets likely to outperform developed markets during this period [4][5][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the current cycle began in September of the previous year [4][11]. - The rate cut is anticipated to boost U.S. stock markets, although high valuations present a challenge for investors [15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically perform better than developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [4][15]. Group 2: Global Asset Reallocation - The trend of reallocating global assets has accelerated, with non-U.S. assets showing particularly strong performance; the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index has risen by 22.7% this year, compared to a 12.5% increase in the MSCI U.S. index [7][15]. - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and a potential turning point in mainland earnings [4][15]. - The A-share market is seen as having a valuation recovery potential, especially in technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity and attractive to global capital seeking high returns [4][15]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The restart of rate cuts is likely to lead to a decline in real interest rates, which may increase gold futures holdings and support gold prices [4][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [9][16]. - The dollar's dominance is under scrutiny, with a potential long-term decline in its value as political pressures on the Federal Reserve increase, impacting its international credibility [13][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is shifting, with a notable increase in concerns about inflation risks, which could destabilize market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. - The current economic policies and pressures on the Federal Reserve may lead to a loss of independence, further exacerbating the dollar's decline and affecting global capital flows [12][13]. - The potential for external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties remains a concern, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation amidst these dynamics [20].

券商分析师人数创下历史新高。 近日，证券时报记者查询中国证券业协会数据发现，券商分析师数量已突破6000大关，创历史新高。据 了解，大型券商研究所以内生培养为主，中小机构则倚重外部引进。 券商分析师队伍正加速扩张，但市场蛋糕却在缩小。受公募基金"费改"影响，上半年行业分仓佣金收入 下滑超30%，券商研究所转型迫在眉睫，需寻求非佣金类新业务增长点、实现收入结构多元化；同时， 部分头部机构的增员速度有所放缓。 规模显著扩容 据记者对中国证券业协会数据的统计，截至9月19日，券商分析师数量达6162人，今年以来新增超400 人。 拉长时间维度看，券商分析师近两年来呈快速扩张态势。据东方财富Choice数据，2018年分析师数量突 破3000，此后三年间长期在4000人以内波动，直至2022年才跨越4000人大关；2024年分析师数量已突破 5000人。 谈及分析师数量快速增长原因，业内人士认为，一是在公募基金"费改"政策出台前，随着机构投资者群 体快速扩容，券商研究所人才缺口较大，持续扩招，包括在应届生中大规模选拔，这些新入职的研究员 在从业两三年后，如今陆续注册成为分析师；二是部分中小券商所正发力卖方研究赛道，通 ...