投资策略 | 定期报告 短期攻势暂缓，中期升势未变 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 ⚫ 全球市场下周或延续震荡 全球降息交易暂歇，下周延续震荡预期：前一周全球市场普涨系交易 9 月的美联储 降息预期，本周全球主要市场除巴西、美国和中国上涨外，整体出现震荡态势，降 息交易暂歇。我们认为美国市场本周全面上涨，并不是交易降息预期，主要是交易 政策不确定性下降，"大而美"法案成功落地短期降低了市场对特朗普政府执政能 力的担心，但这一利好已经落地，政策实际落地效果仍然具有不确定性。美国最新 就业数据公布后，利率期货交易员认为美国 7 月降息预期已微乎其微，9 月降息概率 也从 98%下降到 80%以下。综上我们认为全球市场的上涨或告一段落，下周延续震 荡预期。 风险事件乐观定价充分，预期差逆转压制上涨动力：上周中美推进"伦敦框架" （中方审批管制物项出口、美方松绑限制），市场或因此短期下调了风险评价。但 当前定价或已充分反映对关税战的乐观预期，市场可能会开始担心 9 日事件落地结 果难超预期。随着交易焦点转向 7 月 9 日关税休战到期， 风险评价预期短升将压制 全球市场反弹动能。 ⚫ A 股短期攻势或暂缓，关税 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new regulations to strengthen oversight of quantitative institutions and enhance operational standards, leading to a divergence in market performance where large-cap stocks are rising while small-cap stocks are declining [1][3] - After a six-day period of shrinking trading volume, the market saw an increase in trading volume to 1.43 trillion yuan, with a rise of over 110 billion yuan, indicating some capital entering the market, although it remains insufficient to support a breakout above 3500 points [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3497.22 points but failed to break through the 3500-point resistance, indicating significant selling pressure above this level [3][5] Group 2 - The financial sector, led by brokerage firms, has shown strong performance, suggesting that as long as financial stocks rise, the index is likely to continue increasing, with a target of 3600 points [5] - Despite the index showing gains, over 4100 stocks declined, highlighting a situation where the index gains do not translate into profits for most investors [7] - The market's trading volume has increased, with a total of 1.43 trillion yuan, suggesting that increased volume could lead to price movements and potential opportunities for recovery in underperforming stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading week saw the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) reaching new highs, attempting to breach the 3500-point mark, but the market exhibited uneven performance with many stocks not recovering from previous lows [2][4]. Market Performance - During the week, 2890 stocks rose, 98 remained flat, and 2430 declined, indicating a less favorable market compared to the previous week where 4818 stocks rose [2][3]. - The SSE closed at 3472.32 points after fluctuating between 3466.55 and 3497.22 points on Friday, reflecting a lack of substantial gains [2]. Sector Analysis - The recent highs in the SSE were primarily driven by large financial sectors, while technology growth sectors lagged behind [4]. - The average stock price for the entire A-share market was 21.76 yuan, approximately 5% below the March high of 22.84 yuan, indicating many stocks have yet to recover from previous declines [4][6]. Economic Outlook - The chief economist at Founder Securities highlighted three main reasons for the recent strength in A-shares: low overall valuations, diminishing external risks, and improving quality of listed companies [7]. - The cumulative dividend payouts from A-share companies have significantly increased, from less than 300 billion yuan in 2010 to over 1.9 trillion yuan in 2024, enhancing investor returns [7]. Investment Opportunities - There are expectations for a phase of catch-up in sectors such as brokerage and technology boards following the index highs [7]. - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to provide investment opportunities, with 15 companies expected to report over 90% year-on-year profit growth [8]. Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the SSE and ChiNext are 14.21 and 38.6, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with a focus on sectors like finance, electricity, software development, and gaming for potential investment opportunities [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant phenomenon where, despite a net outflow of over 9 billion from the stock market, 19 stocks attracted more than 200 million in investments, with沃尔核材 receiving over 1.4 billion [1][3] - 沃尔核材 is noted for its involvement in both nuclear fusion and ultra-high voltage sectors, indicating a strategic positioning in essential energy transitions, which may attract long-term investments [3] - 协鑫能科 received over 500 million in investments, linked to its positioning in the energy storage sector, particularly with the increasing demand for new technologies like molten salt storage [3] Group 2 - Other companies like 数据港 and 信雅达 are also highlighted for their connections to current market trends, with 数据港 focusing on AI computing and data centers, while 信雅达 is associated with financial technology [3] - The article discusses the outflow of funds from companies like 东方财富 and 中际旭创, attributing it to market volatility and profit-taking, rather than fundamental issues [4] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic behind capital flows, suggesting that significant inflows may indicate industry turning points or undiscovered company strengths [4]

Group 1 - The current investment landscape requires attention to the resonance between policies and industries, with a focus on three short-term hotspots: the financial technology sector driven by the upcoming implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1, the benefits for leading companies from photovoltaic supply-side reforms, and opportunities arising from the intensive rollout of innovative drug policies [1][5] - The A-share market showed a notable divergence from the Hong Kong market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32% to 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.36% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors [2] - In the A-share market, the banking sector led with a 1.84% increase, while the innovation drug sector saw multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, reflecting market recognition of financial stability and policy dividends [3][4] Group 2 - The photovoltaic sector in the Hong Kong market rebounded strongly due to expectations of supply-side reforms, with Xinyi Energy surging by 15%, while the biopharmaceutical sector also saw significant gains, such as Rongchang Bio rising over 15% due to supportive policies for innovative drugs [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on addressing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, while the National Healthcare Security Administration has released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, providing substantial support in areas such as research data and insurance coverage [4] - The sales revenue of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 12.1% year-on-year in the first five months, with intelligent equipment manufacturing growing by 19.4%, indicating strong momentum for industrial upgrades [4]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to slightly decline this week, having dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - Spot gold has risen significantly, gaining over $100 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar, increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, trade negotiation uncertainties, and concerns over fiscal risks from the "Big and Beautiful" plan [1] - The euro has appreciated nearly 14% this year, reaching a high of 1.1830 this week, as investors seek safety in European assets amid US policy fluctuations [1] Economic and Policy Developments - Goldman Sachs has moved its expectation for the Fed to restart rate cuts from December to September, predicting three consecutive cuts totaling 75 basis points [5] - Morgan Stanley reports that US tariff revenues are annualized at $327 billion, which is detrimental to economic growth, advising investors to favor US Treasuries and short the dollar [5] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, leading to reduced bets on a July rate cut [6] Trade and Tariff Updates - President Trump announced unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on trade partners, effective August 1, which is higher than previously proposed rates [8] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, allowing US goods to enter Vietnam at zero tariffs, while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US [10] Legislative Actions - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is approximately $3.4 trillion in size, with supporters claiming it will benefit all income levels through tax cuts [11] - The bill is criticized by Democrats as "robbing the poor to pay the rich," with projected costs exceeding $4.5 trillion over the next decade [11] Corporate Developments - Tesla reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries, totaling 384,122 units, yet its stock surged nearly 5%, adding $48.1 billion to its market cap due to better-than-expected performance [17] - Robinhood, Bybit, and Kraken have launched stock tokenization services, allowing 24/7 trading of US stocks, marking a significant shift in the trading landscape [18][19] AI and Talent Acquisition - Apple is considering using technology from Anthropic or OpenAI for its new Siri version, indicating a potential shift from its in-house AI development [20] - Meta has hired at least eight key researchers from OpenAI, reflecting a competitive talent acquisition strategy in the AI sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound driven primarily by emotional factors, with a potential for a central upward oscillation in the short term [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent market rebound is attributed to a decrease in market volatility, leading to a release of emotions and an increase in risk appetite, although it lacks significant macroeconomic and industry fundamental catalysts [3]. - Major bank stocks have reached new highs, supported by improving financial policies and expectations of better asset quality, as indicated by declining non-performing loan ratios [3][4]. Historical Context - The "Seven Reversal" phenomenon is historically driven by a combination of capital, policy, and emotional factors, with July typically seeing improved liquidity and market sentiment following a tighter June [5]. - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting in July is expected to provide key signals for economic policy direction, which could further boost market sentiment [5]. Structural Opportunities - Current market conditions present structural investment opportunities, particularly in technology growth and high-dividend strategies [7]. - Investment focus areas include new technologies and demands across various sectors, such as solid-state batteries, nuclear fusion, digital currencies, and AI applications in healthcare [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is noted for its closed-loop development, enhancing commercial viability and application potential, with both domestic and international computing power chains being areas of interest [8]. - Mid-term outlook remains positive for the domestic economy and growth industries, with a focus on AI applications, semiconductor supply chains, and pharmaceuticals as key investment opportunities [8].

7月4日港股市场，北水成交净买入66.83亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净买入30.04亿港元，港股通(深)成 交净买入36.79亿港元。 港股通(深)活跃成交股 小鹏汽车-W(09868)获净买入8.72亿港元。消息面上，小鹏汽车公布，其全新中型SUV小鹏G7售价19.58 万元人民币起，远低于23.58万元的预售价，开售9分钟大定突破10,000辆。里昂认为，此次G7推出，象 征着集团已完成其SUV车型G6、G7及G9的矩阵，预计可带动全系列每月销售1.3万至1.7万辆。 中芯国际(00981)获净买入7.68亿港元。消息面上，西门子、新思科技和楷登电子公司发布的声明称，美 国政府已于本周四取消对中国部分芯片设计软件的出口管制措施。摩根士丹利5月发布的研究显示，三 家公司去年共占据中国EDA软件市场约82%的份额。EDA工具是芯片制造商在智能手机、计算机、汽车 等广泛应用领域中进行半导体设计的核心软件。 北水净买入最多的个股是小鹏汽车-W(09868)、中芯国际(00981)、建设银行（601939）(00939)。北水净 卖出最多的个股是阿里巴巴-W(09988)、小米集团-W(01810)、腾讯(007 ...

Core Viewpoint - Robinhood is leveraging its regulatory licenses to expand into the Web 3.0 financial space, allowing for the tokenization of equity derivatives in Europe, which enhances its competitive edge in the brokerage industry [4][5]. Group 1: Revenue Model - Robinhood operates as a zero-commission brokerage, primarily earning through the bid-ask spread, which is narrower compared to other brokers [4]. - The company’s securities trading license is valuable, enabling it to engage in various financial activities [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Advantages - Robinhood acquired Bitstamp, gaining MiFID II investment company status, allowing it to operate a Multilateral Trading Facility (MTF) and legally facilitate trades of financial instruments recognized by MiFID [4]. - The MTF status enables Robinhood to provide services across the EU with a single regulatory approval, a significant advantage over competitors like Coinbase, which lacks this capability [4]. - Bitstamp has obtained a CASP license from Luxembourg, covering all aspects of crypto asset business, ensuring compliance with KYC/AML regulations [4]. Group 3: Trading Operations - Robinhood offers 24/7 trading, which theoretically exposes it to risk during non-trading hours, as it can only trade tokens when the stock market is closed [6]. - The company can partially mitigate this risk by connecting with market makers during night trading sessions [6]. Group 4: Market Potential - The new business model opens up significant opportunities, especially for European investors trading U.S. stocks, simplifying the process through the Bitstamp platform [8]. - The potential market space for this new business is varied among competitors, indicating a wide range of estimates regarding its success [8]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Other firms similar to Robinhood could emerge by combining brokerage services with Web 3.0 capabilities and obtaining MTF licenses in Luxembourg [9].

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to experience a likely upward trend with fluctuations, driven by performance support and favorable policies [1][8] - The market is currently facing uncertainties due to the approaching deadline for tariff suspensions, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1][8] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices in the A-share market rose, reaching new recent highs, with increased individual stock activity and a recovery in market profitability [4][5] - The trading volume showed some contraction, indicating a lack of strong enthusiasm from investors to chase prices [1][8] - The market is influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in U.S.-China relations [4][8] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, particularly in innovative drugs, supported by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in innovative drugs [6] - The consumer electronics sector also saw significant gains, attributed to trade agreements affecting import tariffs on products from Vietnam, which may enhance the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers [7] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance, focusing on those with anticipated improvements [9] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued speculative stocks [9] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting strategic buying during pullbacks [9]