Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.1%报 4368.7 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 3.34%报 67.395 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司，刷新历史新高。沪金收涨 0.44%报 984.58 元/克，沪银涨 3.02%报 15747.00 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 19 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1052.54 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 47.95 吨，当前持仓量为 16066.24 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 21%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的 ...

来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 现货黄金价格冲上4380美元上方，再度刷新历史新高，白银一度涨超2%，将历史新高刷新至68美元上 方。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 目前，交易员们预计美联储将在2026年降息两次，尽管美国总统特朗普一直主张大幅降息，但上周美国 公布的一系列经济数据未能为前景提供更清晰的指引。对于不支付利息的黄金和白银来说，宽松的货币 政策无疑是一大利好。 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加强了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁，加大了对马杜罗 政府的压力，与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了一艘来自俄罗斯"影子船队"的油轮，中东局势也开 始紧张。 贵金属市场正在结束一个具有历史意义的一年，黄金和白银都将创下1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。白银 价格已翻倍有余，黄金价格也 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Option strategy reports are compiled for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, a seller neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they are trending upwards. For black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations. For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2602): The latest price is 93,560, up 840 (0.91%), with a trading volume of 17.27 million lots (up 1.27 million) and an open interest of 23.77 million lots (up 0.64 million) [3]. - Aluminum (AL2602): The latest price is 22,245, up 205 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 22.56 million lots (up 3.72 million) and an open interest of 31.51 million lots (up 2.09 million) [3]. - Zinc (ZN2602): The latest price is 23,090, up 70 (0.30%), with a trading volume of 8.84 million lots (up 0.20 million) and an open interest of 8.64 million lots (up 0.26 million) [3]. - Lead (PB2602): The latest price is 17,005, up 155 (0.92%), with a trading volume of 5.65 million lots (up 2.52 million) and an open interest of 6.22 million lots (up 0.65 million) [3]. - Nickel (NI2602): The latest price is 117,430, up 1,170 (1.01%), with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots (up 10.28 million) and an open interest of 9.41 million lots (up 0.17 million) [3]. - Tin (SN2602): The latest price is 341,220, up 1,400 (0.41%), with a trading volume of 18.49 million lots (up 3.75 million) and an open interest of 5.66 million lots (up 0.71 million) [3]. - Alumina (AO2602): The latest price is 2,528, down 10 (-0.39%), with a trading volume of 12.14 million lots (down 1.21 million) and an open interest of 21.88 million lots (up 0.84 million) [3]. - Gold (AU2602): The latest price is 984.58, up 4.34 (0.44%), with a trading volume of 32.89 million lots (up 8.78 million) and an open interest of 18.97 million lots (down 0.71 million) [3]. - Silver (AG2602): The latest price is 15,746, up 462 (3.02%), with a trading volume of 190.42 million lots (up 33.25 million) and an open interest of 33.75 million lots (down 2.59 million) [3]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2602): The latest price is 109,740, up 4,160 (3.94%), with a trading volume of 2.48 million lots (up 0.61 million) and an open interest of 3.46 million lots (up 0.21 million) [3]. - Industrial silicon (SI2602): The latest price is 8,665, up 45 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 2.23 million lots (down 1.27 million) and an open interest of 9.04 million lots (up 0.03 million) [3]. - Polysilicon (PS2602): The latest price is 60,680, down 355 (-0.58%), with a trading volume of 3.70 million lots (down 0.96 million) and an open interest of 3.57 million lots (up 0.13 million) [3]. - Rebar (RB2605): The latest price is 3,114, unchanged (0.00%), with a trading volume of 68.61 million lots (down 52.94 million) and an open interest of 156.89 million lots (down 0.71 million) [3]. - Iron ore (I2602): The latest price is 794.00, up 2.00 (0.25%), with a trading volume of 1.07 million lots (down 0.23 million) and an open interest of 7.25 million lots (down 0.08 million) [3]. - Manganese silicon (SM2602): The latest price is 5,792, up 14 (0.24%), with a trading volume of 2.24 million lots (up 0.73 million) and an open interest of 3.14 million lots (up 0.11 million) [3]. - Silicon iron (SF2602): The latest price is 5,512, up 36 (0.66%), with a trading volume of 9.35 million lots (up 1.24 million) and an open interest of 3.65 million lots (up 0.03 million) [3]. - Glass (FG2602): The latest price is 993, down 2 (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 2.87 million lots (down 1.84 million) and an open interest of 3.85 million lots (down 0.01 million) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different metal options have different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Different metal options have different pressure and support levels, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different metal options have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy for directional gains, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for time - value gains, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc Options**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Build a call option bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. Precious Metals - **Silver Options**: Construct a call option bull spread combination strategy, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Build a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Manganese Silicon Options**: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon Options**: Construct a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: Build a put option bear spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy of selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector Performance**: The metals sector has shown strong performance recently, both in commodities and stocks, supported by lower-than-expected inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [2][21]. - **Liquidity Expectations**: Enhanced liquidity expectations due to central bank gold purchases and rising ETF holdings are supporting gold prices, with a favorable outlook for precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium [1][4]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Surge**: Silver prices have surpassed $66 due to inventory disruptions, positively impacting gold, platinum, and palladium prices [3][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates and Japan's recent rate hike have contributed to price increases in tungsten, which is crucial for military and aerospace applications [3][13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Tin Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to macroeconomic factors and seasonal influences, with a tightening supply situation anticipated in the long term. Tin prices are also projected to rise despite current pressures from high prices and increased inventories [12][16]. - **Steel Industry Positioning**: Leading companies in the steel sector are well-positioned for a potential upward trend, with high potential for stock investments as the industry enters a strategic layout phase [6][20]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: Lithium prices are influenced by supply disruptions, particularly from key mines in Jiangxi. If production resumes quickly, prices may decline; otherwise, they could remain elevated due to inventory pressures [5][11]. - **Nickel and Cobalt Trends**: Nickel prices are under pressure from anticipated policy changes in Indonesia, while cobalt prices remain strong due to robust downstream demand and supply disruptions [8][9]. Rare Earths - **Price Trends**: The rare earth market is experiencing a decline in prices, particularly in medium and heavy rare earths, due to seasonal demand drops. However, long-term demand from emerging industries like electric vehicles is expected to support price increases [16][18]. - **Supply Constraints**: Domestic quotas for rare earth mining and separation are expected to grow at a slower pace, indicating tighter supply in the future [17]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and leading steel companies like Baosteel and CITIC Special Steel, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [12][22]. - **Focus on Strategic Resources**: Emphasis on investing in companies involved in tungsten and rare earths due to their strategic importance and expected demand growth in high-tech applications [13][18]. Conclusion - **Positive Outlook for Metals Sector**: The overall outlook for the metals sector remains optimistic, driven by improving liquidity, demand recovery, and strategic investments in industrial metals, precious metals, and energy metals [21].

Group 1: Game Industry Transformation - The gaming industry is evolving from being primarily an entertainment product to a flexible tool that drives digital transformation in traditional sectors like healthcare, education, and manufacturing [1] - The integration of gaming technology and design thinking is creating new growth opportunities and reshaping perceptions of the industry [1] Group 2: High-Quality Development in Gaming - China's gaming industry is transitioning to a new phase focused on "high-quality development," with projected market revenue reaching 350.79 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 7.68% [2] - The "game economy" is emerging as a vast ecosystem with a market size exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, driven by technological innovations and cultural content [2] - The industry is shifting from "product export" to "cultural export," emphasizing long-term value creation [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a green transition in energy, with a focus on renewable energy sources and carbon reduction [5] - Companies in the energy sector are expected to play a significant role in the construction of a new energy system, particularly in areas like storage, wind power, and solar energy [5] Group 4: Public Fundraising Trends - The public fund issuance market has seen a significant shift, with 1,468 new funds launched in 2025, marking a four-year high, while total fundraising remains stable compared to the past two years [8] - This trend indicates a move towards a more diversified and innovative approach in the equity fund sector [8] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions in State-Owned Enterprises - There have been 1,001 merger and acquisition cases involving state-owned companies in the A-share market this year, indicating a steady growth trend [9] - The focus of these transactions is on core business areas, with an emphasis on shedding non-core assets and accelerating investments in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [9] Group 6: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have surged over 110% this year, significantly outpacing gold's 65% increase, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics [10] - The highest recorded price for platinum reached $1,987 per ounce, the highest since July 2008 [10] Group 7: AI and State-Owned Enterprises - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to deepen the "AI+" initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on overcoming technological bottlenecks and enhancing digital transformation [11] - Emphasis will be placed on traditional industry upgrades and the development of core technologies [11]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

Group 1 - The recent strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and precious metals, raises questions about whether this trend is a short-term speculation or the beginning of a long-term trend, driven by complex factors [1] - The core drivers for industrial metals like copper and aluminum are more closely tied to changes in economic cycles, while precious metals like gold are primarily influenced by global monetary factors and risk events [2] - The current market perceives "global liquidity easing expectations" as the main engine behind this rally, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on non-ferrous commodities being variable [2] Group 2 - The green energy revolution and technological innovation are identified as the two core drivers of the current global economic growth transformation, with upstream raw materials related to these trends expected to gain solid and sustainable supply-demand support [3] - Concerns about global copper supply tightness are acknowledged, with short-term supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure and policy restrictions, but long-term price increases may trigger market self-adjustment [4] - Current valuations of copper-related stocks are considered to be within a historically reasonable range, indicating a rational market attitude towards positive changes in downstream demand [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strategic cooperation agreement signed between Hainan Rural Commercial Bank and China Gold Group, focusing on mutual benefits in gold and precious metal product sales, brand promotion, and cultural activities [2][3] - The agreement aims to maximize economic and social benefits through deep collaboration and resource sharing between the two entities [2] - Hainan Rural Commercial Bank's chairman, Li Xiaogang, emphasized that the partnership will provide solid resource support and professional assurance for the bank's development in the precious metals business [2] Group 2 - The cooperation is seen as a significant step in the context of Hainan's Free Trade Port initiative, with both parties aiming to leverage policy advantages for deeper collaboration [3] - The signing marks a new phase of standardized and long-term development in their partnership, focusing on product innovation, channel sharing, and service upgrades [3] - The collaboration is positioned as a strong alliance of state-owned financial forces, contributing to the service of national strategies and the real economy [2][3]

--美联储主席候选人之争进入白热化阶段 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1核心矛盾 贵金属周报 上周贵金属价格继续偏强运行，伦敦现货黄金接近10月份历史高位4380附近，伦敦现货白银则续刷历史新高 至67附近，从K线技术形态看，短期仍未出现拐头信号。周二后美联储降息预期略有回升，主要非农与CPI就 业数据补发，显示美经济下行压力与通胀缓和。另外，上周美联储主席候选人之争继续发酵，集中在哈塞 特、沃什和沃勒之间，不同候选人与特朗普政府的立场关联度依次减弱，这也就意味着对于美联储独立性的 维护能力依次增强，但总体而言，三位候选人皆属于宽货币的鸽派支持者。 11月底以来，白银表现远强于黄金，金银比进一步大幅回落。主要原因在于白银低供给弹性与低库存的现 实，叠加COMEX 2512合约大量交割、白银工业需求刚性、ETF投资需求持续流入（但上周iShares白银ETF 周度流出36.7吨）、绿色新能源与数字AI经济对白银需求的增长预期，以及美国对白银的232矿产调查结果不 确定性引发的进口关税担忧等多重因 ...

北京时间20日晚间，仍在交易的加密货币集体拉升，纷纷飘红，21日上午又集体跳水。CoinGlass 数据显示， 截至发稿，近24小时内，加密货币共有超6.7万人爆仓。 事实上，美股已连涨2天，随着节日临近，多位市场人士对行情抱有期待。 究其原因，有分析师表示，经济数据巩固了人们对美联储将采取降息策略的预期。 据新华社，美国 总统 特朗普 17日晚在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储 主席 提名人选 即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支持"大幅"降低利率。 图片来源：CoinGlass "我即将宣布我们的下一任美联储 主席 。" 特朗普 说，"这个人支持大幅降低利率，抵押还款会进 一步下降。" 美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布降息，但 特朗普 吐槽降息幅度"过小"，称"美国的利率就该是全球 最低的"。 据多家媒体报道， 特朗普 目前仍在对候选人进行考察，他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗· 沃勒。 12日， 特朗普 在接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储 主席 职 位的头号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。 特朗普 说，希望联邦基金利率 一年后被降至"1%甚至更低"，以帮助 ...