Core Viewpoint - Canada's GDP contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, marking the first decline in seven quarters, slightly exceeding the Bank of Canada's July forecast of a 1.5% decrease [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in GDP was primarily due to a significant drop in goods exports and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment [1] - Exports fell by 7.5% in the second quarter, heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, with passenger car and light truck exports plummeting by 24.7%, industrial machinery and equipment exports declining by 18.5%, and tourism service exports decreasing by 11.1% [1] Domestic Demand - Despite the export decline, domestic demand grew by 3.5%, indicating a relatively healthy domestic economic condition [1] - Increases in business inventories, growth in household spending, and a reduction in goods imports helped mitigate the negative impacts of the export downturn [1] Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the unexpected extent of the economic slowdown may increase the likelihood of the Bank of Canada lowering interest rates in September to stimulate economic recovery [1]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Economic Performance - In July, China's retail sales growth declined to 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June and below the market expectation of 4.6%[2] - Fixed asset investment growth fell significantly by 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, much lower than the expected 2.7%[3] - Industrial production growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, also below the market expectation of 6.0%[5] Sector-Specific Insights - Real estate development investment fell by 12.0% year-on-year in July, worsening from a decline of 11.2% in June[3] - Retail sales of automobiles dropped by 1.5% in July, contrasting with a growth of 4.6% in June[2] - The manufacturing investment growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%[7] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal support of 0.5-1 trillion yuan by the end of September to bolster economic recovery[1] - Recent policies include a nationwide childcare subsidy starting in 2025, which is projected to directly aid consumption[10] - The central bank may implement a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut by the end of September[14]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government has launched the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to support export companies affected by the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S., providing 30 billion reais in credit support [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - On the first day of the policy implementation, the Brazilian stock market declined, with the main index Ibovespa closing down 0.89% at 136,687.32 points [1] - The Brazilian real depreciated slightly by 0.28% against the U.S. dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 5.4014 reais per dollar [1] Group 2: Policy Background - The plan was developed in response to the U.S. tariffs and was adjusted after Trump exempted around 700 products that account for 45% of Brazil's exports to the U.S. [1] - A scheduled meeting between Brazilian and American finance ministers was canceled by the U.S., leading to ongoing market concerns regarding negotiation progress [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - Brazil aims to diversify its exports while stabilizing its economy and mitigating the impact of tariffs [1]

Core Points - Brazil's President Lula announced the launch of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to counteract the impact of increased U.S. tariffs, aiming to protect exports, safeguard jobs, encourage investment in strategic sectors, and ensure sustainable economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The Brazilian government will allocate 30 billion reais (approximately 5.56 billion USD) from the export guarantee fund as credit support, prioritizing low-interest loans for companies severely affected by U.S. tariffs, including small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Companies significantly impacted will be allowed to defer federal tax payments, and the government will extend the tax refund period for businesses that originally planned to export to the U.S., facilitating their product sales to other countries [1] - The government plans to modernize the export guarantee system and increase support for medium-high technology and green economy export companies [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Rights - A National Employment Monitoring Committee will be established to track employment situations in companies and related supply chains affected by U.S. tariff measures, enhancing labor rights protection and ensuring job stability [1] Group 3: Trade Partnerships - Brazil aims to strengthen cooperation with trade partners outside the U.S. to reduce export dependence on the U.S. The country has completed negotiations with the EU and the European Free Trade Association, is negotiating with the UAE and Canada, and is maintaining dialogue with India and Vietnam [1] - In less than three years, Brazil has opened 397 new export markets [1] Group 4: Diplomatic Relations - The Brazilian government reiterated its commitment to maintaining constructive dialogue with the U.S. to resolve differences through negotiations, protecting the rights of businesses, workers, and consumers [2]

Group 1 - The Thai Baht is expected to continue appreciating this quarter due to easing trade tensions and renewed interest from foreign investors in local stocks [1] - Malaysia Bank predicts the Baht will strengthen to 31.5 Baht per USD by year-end, while Bank of America forecasts it will reach 31.0 Baht per USD, a level not seen since March 2021 [1] - The Baht has become the best-performing currency in Asia this quarter, supported by a tariff agreement with Washington that improves Thailand's export outlook [1] Group 2 - Domestic political concerns have eased, and expectations of another interest rate cut by the Bank of Thailand may support capital inflows, bringing the Thai stock market closer to a bull market [1] - Local stocks have rebounded over 18% since their low in June, making the benchmark SET index one of the best-performing indices globally this quarter [1] - The reduction of tariffs on Thai goods from 36% to 19% by US President Donald Trump has improved Thailand's export prospects, prompting the Finance Ministry to raise its growth forecast by increasing estimates for foreign goods exports [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points (previous value: 126.9 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.4 points (previous increase: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds was 4.7% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index was 126.3 (previous value: 126.2), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [1][9]. - Regarding total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales was 43.4 (previous value: 43.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment was 120.1 (previous value: 120.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase: 4.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded; the high - frequency index for exports was 143.8 (previous value: 143.9), with a week - on - week increase of 3.1 points (previous increase: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed; the high - frequency index for consumption was 119.8 (previous value: 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 2.7 points (previous increase: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast for CPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast for PPI was 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency index for inventory was 161.1 (previous value: 161.1), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The high - frequency index for transportation was 129.6 (previous value: 129.4), with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous increase: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The high - frequency index for financing was 233.9 (previous value: 233.3), with a week - on - week increase of 29.7 points (previous increase: 29.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged [2][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, and financing was constructed, and the Guosheng Fixed - Income Fundamental High - Frequency Index and its sub - items were developed [8]. - During August 4 - 8, 2025, the Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 127.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points and an expanding growth rate [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Declined Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate was 63.5% (previous value: 62.8%); the polyester operating rate was 86.2% (previous value: 86.8%); the semi - tire operating rate was 74.4% (previous value: 74.5%); the full - tire operating rate was 61.0% (previous value: 61.1%); the PTA operating rate was 75.9% (previous value: 79.7%); the PX operating rate was 82.4% (previous value: 82.4%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port was 38.0 tons (previous value: 47.5 tons) [11][13]. Real Estate Sales: Transaction Land Premium Rate Declined - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 17.9 square meters (previous value: 24.4 square meters); the transaction land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.6% (previous value: 9.0%) [22]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Declined - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants was 31.7% (previous value: 33.1%) [32]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continued to Decline - The CCFI index was 1201 points (previous value: 1232 points); the RJ/CRB index was 293.6 points (previous value: 301.9 points) [39]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continued to Rise - The daily average movie box office was 24,143 yuan (previous value: 23,068 yuan) [52]. CPI: Vegetable Wholesale Prices Continued to Rise - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.4 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was 7.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens was 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.2 yuan/kg) [59]. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continued to Rise - The ex - works price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton (previous value: 658 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 72 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper was 9613 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9672 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was 2592 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2596 US dollars/ton) [65]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Remained Stable Overall - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3886 person - times (previous value: 3902 person - times); the road logistics freight rate index was 1050 points (previous value: 1050 points); the number of domestic flights was 14,580 (previous value: 14,562) [77]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increased - The electrolytic aluminum inventory was 19.7 tons (previous value: 18.1 tons); the soda ash inventory was 185.8 tons (previous value: 179.0 tons) [85]. Financing: Local Government Bond Financing Continued to Decline - The net financing of local government bonds was 828 billion yuan (previous value: 2425 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds was 1973 billion yuan (previous value: 134 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate was 0.7% (previous value: 0.55%); the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate was - 0.9% (previous value: - 1.09%) [93].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's capital goods exports amid global geopolitical risks and the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and ASEAN export restrictions on future export performance [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In July, China's export growth was slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in dollar terms, up from 5.9% in the previous month [9]. - The export growth to ASEAN and Latin America showed significant improvement, recording increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments ahead of the August tariff implementation [9]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions rebounded, with growth rates of 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [9]. Risks and Future Outlook - The article highlights that exports are expected to moderate, primarily due to the impact of the 232 tariffs and regulatory scrutiny on transshipments [2]. - The key risks include the potential for additional tariffs on exempt products and the enforcement of stricter transshipment regulations by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries [2]. - The article suggests that the export of capital goods may exhibit medium-term resilience, driven by global trends of industrial backup and capacity transfer to emerging markets due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's economy exhibits a dual characteristic of structural adjustment and growth resilience amid complex internal and external environments [1] - The global trade environment is undergoing significant changes, with the escalation of the US-China tariff war being a major external variable affecting China's economy [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Since late 2024, US tariffs on China have increased from an initial 20% to a peak, affecting a wide range of products including steel, aluminum, and high-tech items [2] - Despite some tariff reductions following negotiations, the overall tariff levels remain high, creating uncertainty in trade [2] - China's export growth to the US has shown volatility, while exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa have increased, with ASEAN's share nearing 30% in Q2 2025, up approximately 8 percentage points since 2018 [2] Group 3: Domestic Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, domestic policies have shifted towards a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal support, and monetary coordination [4] - A significant local government debt replacement plan of 10 trillion yuan has been initiated to alleviate fiscal pressures, alongside an increase in the budget deficit rate to 4% for 2025 [4] - Consumption support measures are expected to reach 40-60 billion yuan in 2025, aimed at boosting market confidence [4] Group 4: Economic Structure Transformation - The economic structure is transitioning from investment-driven growth to innovation and consumption-led growth, with a focus on high-tech sectors such as AI and renewable energy [6] - The government has established a 60 billion yuan AI industry fund, with local governments also creating funds to support advanced manufacturing [6] - Retail sales are recovering, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, and online retail penetration nearing 28% of total retail sales [6] Group 5: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with investment growth slowing but market structure improving, focusing on affordable housing and urban renewal [7] - Long-term, the role of real estate in economic growth is expected to diminish as urbanization matures and demographic changes occur [7] Group 6: Long-term Trends and Challenges - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, facing challenges such as aging population and labor supply changes [8] - Debt levels among local governments and enterprises remain a concern, but domestic ownership of debt and high savings rates provide a buffer [8] - The US-China relationship and global supply chain adjustments will continue to influence economic operations, with opportunities arising from cooperation in areas like renewable energy [8]