然而，市场的主要疑虑在于需求侧。许多观点认为，仅依靠"反内卷"等供给侧改革来约束供给，而没有 相应的需求侧政策配合，价格的回升将是不可持续的。报告认为，尽管专门配合"反内卷"的需求政策可 能不会出台，但这并不意味着总需求没有扩张的支撑。 出口如何填补房地产的巨大缺口 招商证券认为，明年中国经济和资本市场的核心逻辑是"再通胀"，但动力并非来自内部刺激，而是来自 出口对房地产投资下行的强力对冲。 在最近发布的研报中，招商证券张一平团队写道，只要出口保持稳定增长，即使国内消费和投资维持低 位，总需求也不会收缩。结合供给侧的"反内卷"改革，再通胀将是大概率事件，GDP平减指数预计在 年中前后转正。 再通胀：明年市场的核心剧本 报告明确指出，"再通胀"是理解明年中国经济与资本市场的关键。自2023年第二季度以来，中国经济一 直面临价格弱势的困扰。如果明年能够成功扭转这一局面，那么当前股市相对强势、债市相对弱势的资 产表现将继续演绎。 实现这一增长的可能性很高。报告预计，2026年可能出现"中美政策共振"：美国中期选举后，特朗普政 府（假设）可能采取财政货币双宽松政策以提振经济；而中国正值"十五五"规划开局之年，重大项目 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, global markets are influenced by several macro narratives, including the long-term weakening of dollar credit, restructuring of global supply chains, gold as a new anchor for the monetary system, AI as the infrastructure for a new industrial transformation, and non-ferrous metals as the new oil [1][8][36] - Domestic assets in 2025 are driven by fundamentals such as external demand and new industries, while high-yield assets are concentrated in non-ferrous metals and AI-related sectors [1][9][10] - The existence of a "temperature difference" in the economy indicates that new industrial investments are concentrated in emerging sectors, while traditional sectors show weaker performance [1][10] Group 2 - In 2026, a "mirror" relationship may form, with global narratives expected to converge, leading to reduced uncertainty in the global trade environment [2][11] - The expected recovery in investment gaps during the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan may stabilize the real estate sector and improve consumption rates [2][13] - The profitability of large-scale industrial enterprises is projected to improve, with an expected increase in profit growth from approximately 3% to 6.6% [3][14] Group 3 - The transition of macroeconomic policy from "counter-cyclical" to "expanding domestic demand" is expected to enhance fundamental pricing power [3][15][16] - The combination of converging narratives and reduced temperature differences will impact asset pricing characteristics, with a shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing for commodities [4][17] - The normalization of risk preferences among residents will lead to an increase in rental yield pricing power in the real estate sector [4][18] Group 4 - The next round of narratives may include themes such as industrialization in southern countries, the second wave of globalization for Chinese enterprises, AI scenario applications, and a new quality of consumption [5][20] - The traditional investment research framework faces challenges from these narratives, necessitating an optimization of the investment research framework to incorporate narrative analysis [5][21] Group 5 - Key assumptions for economic judgment in 2026 include a moderate recovery in investment gaps, improvement in consumption, stable export fundamentals, and a reduction in downward pressure on the real estate sector [6][22][23][26] - The projected economic growth for 2026 is approximately 4.9% in real terms and 5.1% in nominal terms, indicating a stable growth outlook [6][28]

Core Insights - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region maintained stable trade relations with over 240 countries and regions in the first ten months of the year, achieving a total import and export value of 3.91 trillion yuan, with exports reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, the highest for the same period in history [1] Trade Performance - The region's exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative amounted to 696.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, which constituted 58.2% of the region's total exports [1] - Exports to Latin America, Africa, and the five Central Asian countries saw significant year-on-year increases of 14.6%, 31.9%, and 40.2% respectively, indicating a diversification of global market outreach [1] Export Composition - Private enterprises played a crucial role in the region's export performance, with exports totaling 561.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, accounting for 46.9% of the region's total exports [1] - Key export products included auto parts, ships, and pharmaceuticals, which experienced robust growth rates of 12.8%, 176.5%, and 37.5% respectively [1]

Group 1 - Japan's recent diplomatic actions indicate a shift in its stance towards China, with officials expressing regret over provocative statements regarding Taiwan [1][5] - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, particularly in tourism and consumer sectors, with the consumption index showing negative growth for the first time [2][3] - China's tourism to Japan reached 7.5 million in the first three quarters, making it Japan's largest source of inbound tourism, highlighting the economic interdependence between the two nations [5] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions have led to a reassessment of Japan's military posture, with concerns about its reliance on the U.S. for defense and the implications of its provocative rhetoric [13][15] - The current global economic landscape is undergoing transformation, with potential opportunities arising from shifts in technology and industry, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [20][21] - The situation underscores the importance of understanding the broader implications of diplomatic actions on economic stability and market dynamics [28][29]

Company Overview - Guoxing Optoelectronics (SZ 002449) announced an investor meeting scheduled for November 7, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:30, where the chairman Lei Zihe and vice president Guo Haojie will participate in discussions with investors [1] - For the first half of 2025, Guoxing Optoelectronics reported that its revenue composition was as follows: 77.04% from the electronic components industry, 17.41% from export trade, and 5.55% from other businesses [1] Industry Insights - The news highlights the growing interest in high-value products showcased at the Import Expo, indicating a trend towards premium offerings in the market [1]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reports that India's gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are experiencing record inflows, with nearly $3 billion in purchases this year, equivalent to approximately 26 tons of precious metals, indicating strong demand for gold ETFs [3] - China's exports saw their first decline in eight months, dropping by 1.1% year-on-year, with exports to the U.S. falling over 25%, while exports to other countries grew by 3.1%, highlighting the need for China to strengthen domestic demand to support economic growth [3] - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 34th day, leading to significant disruptions in the aviation industry, including flight reductions affecting over 40 airports across more than 20 states, creating challenges and uncertainties for the U.S. airline sector [4] Group 2 - December gold futures are showing bullish momentum, with the next target for bulls being a closing price above the strong resistance level of $4,100, while bears aim to push prices below the strong support level of $3,800 [5] - The first resistance level is noted at Thursday's high of $4,028.70, followed by $4,059.90, while the first support level is at Thursday's low of $3,973.20, with subsequent support at this week's low of $3,935.70 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market, which has shown significant growth despite geopolitical challenges and economic slowdowns. The MSCI China Index has increased by 36.22% year-to-date as of October 29, 2025, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 30.42% during the same period [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Theme 1: Companies with Global Influence in Innovation - China has nurtured a number of globally influential companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where Chinese pharmaceutical firms are increasingly licensing intellectual property to global firms. This trend is expected to generate patent royalties and is less politically sensitive compared to sectors like semiconductors [5][6]. - Theme 2: Companies Diversifying Export Markets - China's global export total continues to rise, driven by strong growth in exports to Latin America and other emerging markets, despite trade tensions with the U.S. Companies focusing on non-U.S. markets may present overlooked investment opportunities [8]. - Theme 3: Industries Benefiting from "Anti-Involution" Policies - The Chinese government has implemented policies to address over-competition, known as "involution," which aim to improve quality of life and promote sustainable economic growth. These policies are expected to positively impact industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and agriculture by reducing excess capacity and improving profitability [10]. - Theme 4: Industry Leaders Increasing Domestic Market Share - As China transitions to high-quality development, local industry leaders in sectors like fintech, sportswear, and functional beverages are seizing opportunities to expand their market share, demonstrating resilience against economic challenges [12]. - Theme 5: Opportunities from Corporate Governance Reforms - Recent governance reforms in China aim to enhance shareholder returns and improve corporate governance. Companies with strong governance are likely to generate substantial excess returns, as evidenced by high levels of profitability and stock buybacks in the market [14]. Group 2: Broader Emerging Market Perspective - The article suggests that emerging markets, including China, are often misunderstood but hold unique advantages and opportunities. Investors should recognize the potential for excess returns from companies benefiting from the discussed trends [16][17]. - Emerging market equities remain an under-allocated and undervalued asset class, with compelling investment narratives emerging from sectors like artificial intelligence and structural reforms in countries like India [16].

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent changes in trade dynamics between China and the United States, highlighting a decrease in China's reliance on the U.S. market for exports and an increase in trade with other regions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Data Analysis - A chart presented by CNN shows that the proportion of U.S. exports in China's trade has decreased from 15% a year ago to approximately 10% as of now [1]. - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S., China's overall export total has increased by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by growth in exports to other markets such as the EU and ASEAN [3]. - China has quickly found alternative sources for U.S. agricultural products, such as soybeans and beef, from countries like Brazil, Australia, and Argentina [6]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The article emphasizes that China is diversifying its exports and increasing imports from other countries to replace U.S. goods [12]. - The "Belt and Road Initiative" is noted for playing a positive role in this trade diversification, as it has helped China expand its export markets and enhance the industrial capabilities of partner countries [12].

Macro Overview - The article emphasizes the shift from β factors to α factors in understanding China's export dynamics, particularly in the context of global geopolitical tensions and technological transformations [2][3] - The correlation between global PMI and China's export growth has been disrupted since 2023 due to internal structural adjustments and intensified global trade frictions [2] 2026 Export Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that global economic weakness will be limited, with the IMF predicting a rebound in global GDP growth compared to 2025, leading to an expected export growth rate of 1-3% for China [3] New Trade Patterns - The formation of new trade patterns is attributed to tariff shocks and the restructuring of geopolitical relationships, particularly the complex trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [7] - The article notes that while transshipment trade has increased, it has not fully compensated for the decline in direct trade with the U.S., leading to a focus on non-U.S. markets as new opportunities [7] Export Performance by Sector - Machinery and electrical equipment exports are highlighted as strong performers, indicating sustained global demand for Chinese capital goods amid geopolitical risks [7] - The article discusses the phenomenon of order front-loading, which has led to a temporary overextension in export orders, particularly to the U.S. and transshipment markets [7] Regulatory and Tariff Considerations - The impact of increased regulatory scrutiny on transshipment, particularly for low-value or non-processed goods, is noted, with potential tariffs leading to an estimated 1.3% decline in total Chinese exports [7] - The likelihood of significant new tariffs is considered low due to mutual countermeasures between China and the U.S. and the completion of most global tariff negotiations [7] Currency and Pricing Dynamics - The appreciation of the Chinese currency is expected to reduce the incremental value of exports priced in foreign currencies, although the overall export volume may remain stable [7] Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has seen a significant decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 13.9% in the first nine months, raising concerns about how to mitigate this downturn [8] - Despite pressures, there are signs of stabilization in new construction and sales metrics, although the overall investment environment remains challenging [8][9] Brain-Computer Interface Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is at a critical juncture with significant technological breakthroughs and clinical validations expected to drive commercialization [12][13] - Government policies are actively supporting the development of the BCI industry, with a focus on enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry framework by 2030 [13] - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, indicating strong market potential [14]