特朗普39%高关税一出，让瑞士这个美国的长期盟友如同挨了当头一棒。 尽管瑞士联邦主席卡琳·凯勒-祖特尔、瑞士联邦副主席兼经济、教育和研究部部长居伊·帕姆兰紧急飞往美国举行会谈，但无功而返。8月7日，美国对瑞士 的新关税正式生效。 一、瑞士经济会遭受重创吗？ 瑞士一向给人以富裕安宁的印象。作为一个欧洲内陆国家，瑞士的国土面积还没有中国甘肃省大，其经济高度依赖贸易。2024年瑞士全国出口总额达到 2830亿瑞士法郎，相较2023年增长3%。[1]瑞士最重要的出口产品包括化学和制药行业产品、机械设备、手表和精密仪器。著名药企罗氏、诺华都将总部 设在瑞士，劳力士、斯沃琪、百达翡丽更是享誉全球的瑞士钟表品牌。 美国是瑞士最重要的贸易伙伴和出口市场。2024年，瑞士对美国出口量占其总出口额的19%。尽管美国与瑞士的货物贸易逆差接近400亿法郎，但瑞士是 美国第七大外国投资者，约有500家瑞士公司在美国开展业务，为美国50个州提供了50万个就业岗位。 瑞士对美国的累计投资额高达3070亿美元，超过对德国、法国、意大利和英国投资额的总和。同时，美国企业在瑞士的总投资额约为2122亿美元，相当于 创造了超过10.4万个瑞士就业 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed recovery last week, with the Nasdaq reaching a record closing high due to better-than-expected July non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady[5] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 226,000, exceeding expectations, while continuing claims surged to the highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening job market[8] - The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices in China continued to decline, influenced by corporate earnings reports and U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports[5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, raising concerns about domestic consumption resilience[24] - China's July exports reached $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 5.6%[24] - China's July CPI was flat at 0% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 3.6%, indicating deflationary pressures[28] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has exceeded 90% due to economic concerns[5] - The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate down to 4%[6] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the Chinese 10-year yield fell to 1.69%[39] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to increase allocation to bond assets due to potential short-term risks in equity markets[5] - For low-risk investors, the Taikang Kaitai Overseas Short-Term Bond Fund, yielding over 6% in the past year, is recommended[67] - For high-risk investors, the Huaxia Hang Seng Biotechnology Index ETF, which has seen over 100% returns in the past year, is suggested due to its growth potential in the biotech sector[67]

美国总统特朗普7月30日签署行政令宣布，8月6日起对巴西输美产品加征40%从价关税。此前，特朗普 在社交媒体发文，要求卢拉政府停止对博索纳罗的司法调查，称其遭遇"政治迫害"。卢拉就此回应说， 巴西的司法程序不容任何干涉或威胁，国家机构的独立性不容侵犯。 在美国加征关税生效之际，卢拉6日接受媒体采访时表示，"美国总统对巴西这样的主权国家发号施令不 可接受"，"巴美关系跌至200年来最低点"。他还说，目前不认为有与特朗普直接对话的可能。"如果哪 天我的直觉告诉我特朗普准备好谈了，我会毫不犹豫地打电话给他。但今天我的直觉告诉我，他不想 谈。我不会让自己受辱。" 新华社巴西利亚8月9日电 综述｜巴西"硬刚"美国关税霸凌：主权与尊严之战 新华社记者吴昊 美国对巴西输美产品加征40%从价关税日前生效，大部分巴西输美产品面临的关税税率高达50%。美国 在声称要"平衡长期贸易逆差"的同时，指责巴西政府对前总统博索纳罗进行"政治迫害"。对此，巴西总 统卢拉坚决回击，表示巴西将加强与新兴经济体团结合作，并通过世界贸易组织、金砖国家机制等多边 平台争取国际社会支持，打响一场捍卫国家主权与尊严之战。 据古巴拉美社报道，卢拉5日在巴西 ...

Macro Dynamics - In July, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the overall CPI remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month after a previous decline of 0.1% [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, with the month-on-month decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Industry Standards - The National Standard for Medical Security Information Platform has been released, marking a significant milestone in the standardization of medical insurance in China, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] Market Adjustments - Hainan Province announced adjustments to the rules for the old-for-new replacement program for home appliances and digital products, effective from August 9, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with a focus on the timely and balanced use of subsidy funds [4] Financial Institutions - The National Financial Supervision Administration approved the transfer of 500 million shares of Xishang Bank to Guolian Group, resulting in Guolian Group holding a 25% stake in the bank [7] Market Data - As of August 8, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.47%, the Nasdaq up 0.98%, and the S&P 500 up 0.78%, driven by significant gains in technology stocks, particularly Apple, which rose over 4% [11] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.26% but recorded a cumulative increase of 2.39% for the week, with mixed performances among popular Chinese concept stocks [12] Company Dynamics - Beijing Huiyuan Food and Beverage Co., Ltd. issued an open letter to shareholders regarding a proposal to use capital reserves to cover losses, highlighting uncertainties in the capital reserves and potential impacts on creditors' rights [13] - Several pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca and Bayer, announced investments totaling approximately 12 billion Mexican pesos (about 4.6 billion RMB) in Mexico, seen as a strategic move under the USMCA [14] - OpenAI announced the relaunch of ChatGPT-4o and the rollout of GPT-5 to Plus, Pro, Team, and free users, enhancing user experience with increased rate limits [15]

当地时间7日，美国政府此前公布的经过调整的"对等关税"生效，对数十个贸易伙伴征收10%至41%不 等的关税。随后，印度、日本、瑞士等多方发声，表达对关税的不满。 日本：强烈要求美国修改行政令 日本面对的"对等关税"税率为15%。当前，日本方面"强烈"要求美方修改总统行政令。 据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，日本首相石破茂7日向记者表示，美方没有落实此前双方达成的协议中 有关"税收减轻"的内容。 印度与美国之间的贸易谈判经过五轮谈判后宣告破裂，原因是双方在开放印度庞大的农业和奶制品行 业，以及停止购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在分歧。 印度外交部经济关系部长拉维表示，"美国提高关税缺乏逻辑，因此这只是一个暂时的异常现象，是印 度将面临的一个暂时问题，但随着时间的推移，我们相信最终会找到解决方案。" 瑞士：希望继续谈判 7日生效的"对等关税"中，瑞士面临的税率为39%，是发达国家中最高的。 瑞士内阁当天召开紧急会议后发布声明说，政府"仍致力于与美国进行磋商，力求降低这些关税。联邦 委员会正与美方主管部门以及受影响的行业保持密切联系。" 报道称，美方此前在谈判中承诺，日本在被加征"对等关税"时可获得"税收减轻"：如果日本输美商 ...

分析认为，工业产出疲软主要受到制药行业发展乏力的拖累。数据显示，当月制药业产出环比下降 11%；机械设备制造业和食品业也表现不佳，产出分别下降5.3%和6.3%。相比之下，当月建筑业产出环 比增长0.7%，能源业产出增长3.1%。 数据还显示，今年第二季度德国工业产出环比下降1.0%。德国联邦经济和能源部当日发表的声明指 出，第二季度工业产出疲软，部分原因可能是对美国早前宣布加征关税所引发的"企业提前下单效应"的 一种回调。由于美国加征关税导致贸易环境恶化等因素，第三季度德国工业经济依然难以获得持续复苏 的动力。 根据6日联邦统计局公布的数据，德国6月工业新订单也出现环比下降。德国联邦银行此前在最新月度报 告中警告，美国高额关税带来的影响将对德国经济造成严重压力。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社柏林8月7日电(记者马秀秀)根据德国联邦统计局7日公布的数据，2025年6月德国工业产出环比下 降1.9%，同比下降3.6%，降至自2020年5月以来的最低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalation of trade tensions between the US and various countries, particularly India and the EU, due to proposed tariff increases by President Trump [3][4][6]. - Trump announced plans to significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods, currently at 25%, in response to India's purchase of Russian oil [3][4]. - The EU is also facing potential tariff increases, with Trump threatening a rise to 35% if obligations are not met, up from a previous rate of 15% [5][6]. Group 2 - Brazil's President Lula vowed to defend the country's interests against new US tariffs, asserting that the US has no right to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods [7][8]. - Brazil plans to utilize all available resources, including the WTO, to challenge the US's tariff actions [8]. - Despite the recent tariff deadlines, trade disputes continue, with ongoing litigation and negotiations expected [9]. Group 3 - The article highlights concerns from economists regarding the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy, predicting a slowdown in growth and an increase in unemployment rates by 2025 and 2026 [12][13]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that tariffs could reduce the US GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 to 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [12]. - Tariffs are expected to raise average household spending in the US by $2,400 by 2025, particularly affecting clothing prices [13]. Group 4 - The article mentions the potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump, indicating dissatisfaction with current monetary policy [14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with a 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut, while some analysts warn against this consensus [14][15]. - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with over 800,000 foreign workers leaving the US, but the unemployment rate remains stable [15].

Core Points - Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter urgently traveled to Washington to negotiate with the Trump administration to reduce the recently announced 39% tariff on Swiss goods [1] - The U.S. President Trump emphasized the significant trade deficit between the U.S. and Switzerland, particularly highlighting the wealth generated by the Swiss pharmaceutical industry [1] - The Swiss government is under pressure to respond to the tariffs, with potential negotiation focuses including gold, agriculture, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and energy [2] Trade Negotiation Challenges - Keller-Sutter and Economic Minister Guy Parmelin face political risks in making concessions, which may not effectively address Trump's criticisms regarding the trade deficit [3] - Agriculture is the only sector where Switzerland retains tariffs, and any concessions in this area could provoke backlash from farmers [3] - The trade deficit in gold is significant, with two-thirds of the deficit in the first quarter attributed to gold bar transportation [3] Strategic Recommendations - Former Swiss diplomat Thomas Borer suggested purchasing oil, weapons, and liquefied natural gas, and making concessions in agriculture while pressuring Swiss pharmaceutical companies to lower prices [4] - Switzerland is currently negotiating the purchase of 36 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, but there are disagreements over the contract price [4] - Trade policy researcher Stefan Legge proposed creative approaches, such as symbolic gifts to Trump, to improve diplomatic relations [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced significant tariff increases on India due to its oil purchases from Russia, which has caused shock and disappointment among Indian officials [1][3] - India is currently evaluating its response to the tariffs but is not expected to retaliate immediately; instead, it is exploring various trade options to maintain its relationship with the U.S. [1][5] - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the stability of its relationship with Russia and stated that its energy procurement is market-driven, not influenced by third-party perspectives [3][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that India may refuse to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. as a potential response, indicating a preference for domestic development of defense equipment under the "Make in India" initiative [7] - The tariffs announced by Trump have led to volatility in the Indian stock market, particularly affecting export-intensive sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, while the IT sector may face indirect impacts [7] - Despite ongoing criticisms of the Trump administration, diplomatic channels between India and the U.S. remain open, with India preparing for the next Quad Security Dialogue summit [7]

特朗普：下周会宣布药品关税，也将宣布芯片关税。将对制药业征收起初额度较小的关税，但最终将达到250%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普：劳工统计数据非常政治化。如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。下周内宣布药品关税。 ...