Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - Crude oil price (CFR, Northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was $605.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethylene price index (Northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was $605.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Upstream cost (northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 2, 2025, it was $841.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Epoxyethane ex - factory price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was 6,300.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Methanol spot price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 2,230.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Inner Mongolia brown coal price (tax - included, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 290.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Main contract closing price (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, the main contract closing price was 4,331.00, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous value; the settlement price was 4,340.00, a 0.84% decrease compared to the previous settlement price; the nearby - month contract closing price was 4,338.00, a 0.23% increase compared to the previous value; the settlement price was 4,376.00, a 0.14% decrease compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethanol market price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 4,430.00, a 0.89% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethanol price index (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 4,420.00, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Near - far price difference (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 31.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Comprehensive ethanol price: On September 3, 2025, it was 89.00, a 3.00% increase compared to the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - Production chain load rate of polyester (PTA factory): On September 3, 2025, it was 87.99%, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Production chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms (PTA): On September 3, 2025, it was 62.03%, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit Information - After - tax gross profit of coal - based methanol plant (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 138.01, a decrease compared to the previous value [1]. Product Price Index Information - Polyester price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 8,750.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Polyester ester price: On September 3, 2025, it was 1,200, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Polyester staple fiber price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 6,510.00, a 0.1% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Bottle - grade chip price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 860.00, a 0.34% increase compared to the previous value [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and suggests paying attention to the situation of Shenghong's PX plant [4]. Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue has stalled or regressed, causing oil prices to decline slightly in fluctuations. The crude oil market remains in a multi - short stalemate. Naphtha has shown strength recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery. The profitability of downstream olefins is guaranteed at the bottom as the peak season approaches [1]. - In the PX market, the PXN was 252 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0.13 dollars/ton). After the restart of Idemitsu's and Fuhai Chuang's plants, the PX operating rate at home and abroad is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened and the floating price of near - month PX has softened, the low inventory provides support to PXN [1]. - For PTA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 49 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton), the spot processing fee was 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market was 348 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the less - than - expected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant, the de - stocking amplitude of the PTA balance sheet in September will narrow. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester operating rate may not increase as expected [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). There are signs of demand recovery, but the order connection this week is insufficient. The weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester operating rate is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 19 yuan/ton). The operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber has increased, the downstream situation has improved, and inventory is being depleted. However, there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment due to falling raw material prices [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 377 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The industry plans to maintain a 20% production cut in September, and the increase in the operating rate is expected to be limited. The inventory pressure has decreased, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA's East China spot basis; and the basis of 1.56D * 38mm semi - bright natural white staple fiber [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene spread between the US and Asia, the spread between South Korea's FOB toluene and Japan's CFR naphtha, and PTA export profit [26][28]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It displays the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts plus forecasts, PTA warehouse inventory, PX warehouse inventory, and PF warehouse inventory [37][40][41]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of filament DTY, FDY, and POY factories, the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - It includes the operating rate of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rate of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled 1.4D polyester staple fibers, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, the production profit of pure polyester yarn, the processing fee of polyester - cotton yarn, and the available inventory days of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][80][84]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle chip load, the inventory days of bottle chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, the export profit of bottle chips, the spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and the monthly spreads of bottle chips [90][92][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - p - Xylene: Long the spread between November and January contracts, short the spread between January and May contracts. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid - September [7] - PTA: Long the spread between November and January contracts, long PTA and short MEG [1] - MEG: Long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase long positions, consider the valuation high above 4550 [1][9] 2. Core Views - The supply - demand of p - Xylene is in a tight - balance pattern. The overnight oil price rebound supports PX. In September, supply will marginally increase, but PX demand from new PTA projects keeps the balance tight [7][8] - PTA's unilateral price is oscillating strongly with limited downside. Polyester开工率 is rising. After some PTA device incidents, it turns to a de - stocking pattern. PTA basis and spread are supported, but factory hedging may suppress the price [8] - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market. Supply and demand both increase, and ports turn to a stocking pattern. The overall unilateral price support is limited. High coal - based profits impact the valuation of oil - based sources [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures prices had different changes. For example, PX主力期货昨日收盘价 was 6866, down 0.17%; PTA主力 was 4772, down 0.25% [2] - **Futures Spreads**: PX11 - 1 spread yesterday closed at 72, up 4; PTA11 - 1 was - 10, down 2; MEG1 - 5 was - 39, down 1 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton yesterday, down 0.67 dollars; PTA in East China was 4727 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; MEG spot was 4507 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton yesterday, down 3.5 dollars; PTA processing margin was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan [2] Market Dynamics - **PX**: An East China factory postponed the restart of its PX and PTA devices. On September 1, Asian p - Xylene prices were basically stable, but concerns about upstream demand pressured the market. The Asian contract price negotiation for September p - Xylene cargoes failed to end by the end of August [2][3][4] - **PTA**: A 70 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted at the end of August; a 55 - ton and a 150 - ton device are restarting, and a 120 - ton device is expected to stop on September 4 [5] - **MEG**: The inventory at East China main ports was about 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons. Different ports had different inventory changes [5] - **Polyester**: A 50 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in South China restarted, and a 35 - ton device in Northeast China stopped. Some polyester devices in other regions restarted or are expected to restart. The sales of polyester yarn and staple fiber were weak today [5][6] Trend Intensity - p - Xylene trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The market is volatile with some products showing price fluctuations, such as a decline of -1255.66 and -1253.69 in certain values, and price changes like -5.67% and 17.00% in percentages [1]. - The trading atmosphere is relatively dull, and the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors like low demand and weak supply in some sectors affecting the market [2]. - The performance of companies is affected by various factors, including external market environment, internal operation and management, and resource allocation [2]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Price and Value Information** - There are specific price and value data for different products and regions, such as values of -93.21, 69.00, etc., and prices in yuan/ton for various items like ethylene glycol [1]. - Price changes are also presented, for example, a decline of -5.67% and an increase of 17.00% [1]. - **Market and Trading Conditions** - The market is described as dull, with less trading activity and a lack of enthusiasm [2]. - The demand is weak in some sectors, and the supply situation is also uneven, which impacts the overall market trend [2]. - **Company and Operation Information** - Companies' operations are affected by factors such as market competition, resource availability, and management decisions [2]. - There are issues like low - efficiency operations and challenges in resource allocation for some companies [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the styrene price has shown a downward trend, with a significant drop from above 7400 yuan/ton to around 7000 yuan/ton, driven by increased short positions and weak fundamentals in the industry [1] - The styrene production capacity has improved due to higher profit margins from raw material benzene, with the styrene-benzene price spread averaging 1200 yuan/ton, leading to an overall production load above 78%, which is 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - New production capacities are being introduced, with significant installations expected in the fourth quarter, which may further increase supply pressure on styrene prices [2] Group 2 - Despite the traditional peak season, the demand for styrene is expected to grow only moderately, with downstream production rates for ABS, PS, and EPS showing slight increases, but overall demand remains under pressure [3] - High inventory levels at ports, reaching 19.65 million tons, are exerting downward pressure on styrene prices and valuations, exceeding historical levels and the highest point of the year [3] - The cost support from crude oil is insufficient, with expectations of weak performance in the fourth quarter, and the supply-demand balance for benzene remains weak, limiting upward price movements for styrene [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Friday, polyolefins mainly declined. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. International crude oil prices have fluctuated at low levels recently, which also has a certain impact on the short - term trend of chemicals. In the future, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion, the rhythm of spot production scheduling and maintenance, especially the short - term repair rhythm on the supply side. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7287, 7299, and 7230 respectively, with price drops of - 71, - 63, and - 84 and declines of - 0.96%, - 0.86%, and - 1.15% compared to two days ago. For拉丝PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6995, and 6882 respectively, with price drops of - 46, - 38, and - 55 and declines of - 0.66%, - 0.54%, and - 0.79% compared to two days ago. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 282715, 6342, and 12925 respectively, and the open interests were 440365, 29448, and 12908 respectively, with changes of 26798, 2196, and - 10361. The trading volumes of拉丝PP futures for January, May, and September contracts were 217926, 4683, and 9349 respectively, and the open interests were 528243, 41267, and 7157 respectively, with changes of 31778, 1008, and - 6409. [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 12, 69, and - 57 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 48, and - 44. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 21, 113, and - 92 respectively, compared to previous values of - 13, 96, and - 83. [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2365 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2376 yuan/ton, 6550 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6820 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7700, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7750 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7300 - 7700, 7250 - 7450 (also 8100 - 8250 in North China), and 7400 - 7800. The current price ranges of拉丝PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6850 - 7000, 6800 - 7000, and 6800 - 7050 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6900 - 7050, 6900 - 7000, and 6850 - 7100. [2] News - On Friday (August 29), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.01 per barrel, down $0.59 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $64.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.12 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.9 - $68.39. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate accordingly. However, the processing margin needs improvement, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks due to scarce arrivals in late August and improved提货 at the main port. Starting from early September, the arrivals from overseas will increase. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared with the previous day, the spot basis loosened, with mainly traders negotiating and sporadic polyester factories making inquiries. Next - week's goods were traded at a discount of 20 - 30 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4755 - 4810. Goods in mid - and late - September were traded at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 24 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4775, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 17, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The commodity atmosphere was weak during the day, and a major polyester bottle - chip manufacturer will maintain production cuts, suppressing market sentiment. The ethylene glycol futures were sorted at a low level during the day, and the spot negotiation and trading were carried out at a premium of 62 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. There were more spot offers this week. However, the support gradually emerged after the price fell to a low level, and the futures rebounded moderately in the afternoon. In terms of US dollars, the overseas price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and a small number of traders participated in buying. Recent shipments were traded at around 531 - 533 US dollars/ton. There was a tender for a Malaysian shipment during the day, and attention should be paid to the transaction progress [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a decrease of 9.42 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from early September. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including total operating rate, production, new production capacity, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. Price - It shows the price changes of various products on August 28, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis of PTA and MEG, and processing margins and profits of related products [13]. Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc. in different periods through charts [40][41][43]. Polyester Upstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol in different periods through charts [51][52][54]. Polyester Downstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in different periods through charts [55][56][58]. PTA Processing Fee - It shows the PTA processing fee changes in different periods through a chart [59][60]. MEG Profit - It shows the profit changes of MEG produced by different processes (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in different periods through charts [62][63]. Polyester Fiber Profit - It shows the profit changes of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in different periods through charts [65][67][68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Ratings**: PTA (Seasonal demand peak driving, strong - side oscillatory market); PX (Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, focus on positive spreads) [2][8] - **Neutral Ratings**: Rubber (Oscillatory operation); Synthetic rubber (Fundamentals are neutral, follow the macro - environment); LLDPE (Range - bound oscillation); PP (Medium - term oscillatory market); LPG (Crude oil cost rebounds); Propylene (Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises); Fuel oil (Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness); Low - sulfur fuel oil (Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily) [2][10][16] - **Negative Ratings**: Asphalt (Decline following oil prices); Methanol (Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern); Urea (Oscillatory and under pressure); Styrene (Medium - term bearish); Soda ash (Spot market with little change); PVC (Trend under pressure); Container shipping index (European route) (May continue weak - side oscillation) [2][19][55] Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures. For each product, it combines fundamental data, market news, and trend strength to give investment suggestions. Market factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and external policy impacts are considered [2][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, with high profits and increased production enthusiasm. There are some uncertainties in supply due to equipment issues, and demand is gradually recovering. Suggestions include positive spreads and a strategy of long PTA and short PX [4][8] - **PTA**: Driven by seasonal demand, it is in a strong - side oscillatory market. Supply is affected by new device launches and maintenance, and demand is improving. Hold positive spreads and consider long PTA and short PX [8] - **MEG**: 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. There is pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the future [9] 2. Rubber - Oscillatory operation. The EU's anti - dumping investigation affects exports, and there is a differentiation in domestic demand. The overall inventory may increase, and production may decline [10][13][14] 3. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamentals are neutral, following the macro - environment. The inventory of butadiene in ports has decreased, and the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene has increased. In the medium - term, it is in a range - bound oscillation [16][17][18] 4. Asphalt - Decline following oil prices. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the volume of equipment maintenance has increased. The shipment volume in some regions has changed [20][33] 5. LLDPE - Range - bound oscillation. Demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may be alleviated in September. Inventory is relatively low, so it may remain range - bound in the medium - term [35][36] 6. PP - Medium - term oscillatory market. Short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, supply pressure will increase in the future, and there is uncertainty in the cost [39][40] 7. Caustic Soda - Not advisable to chase short positions, and be bullish in the fourth quarter. The futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. Domestic demand is stable, and the key lies in the alumina production schedule [43][45] 8. Pulp - Oscillatory operation. The price of the pulp futures has declined, and the market for household paper is flat. The key is to monitor changes in raw material pulp prices and paper mill shipments [48][50][51] 9. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. Futures prices have declined slightly, and spot prices are mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, with mainly rigid - demand purchases [52][53] 10. Methanol - Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern. Spot prices are declining, and port inventory has reached a new high. There is a risk of further price decline in ports and inland areas [55][58] 11. Urea - Oscillatory and under pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises has increased, and in the short - term, the price is weak. In the medium - term, there may be fluctuations due to macro - factors, but the long - term fundamentals are still the main contradiction [60][62][63] 12. Styrene - Medium - term bearish. Although the downstream has entered the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the inventory is at a medium - high level, and the momentum for continuous replenishment is insufficient [64][65] 13. Soda Ash - Spot market with little change. The market is in a weak - side oscillation, with stable supply and lackluster demand. It is expected to remain weakly stable in the short - term [66][68] 14. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Crude oil cost rebounds. There are changes in futures prices, trading volume, and positions, and attention should be paid to CP paper prices and PDH device maintenance plans [71][77] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises. The supply - demand relationship has led to an increase in the spot price [2][71] 15. PVC - Trend under pressure. The supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down [79] 16. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness. Futures prices have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [82] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily. There are changes in futures prices and spreads [82] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - May continue weak - side oscillation. Futures prices have declined, and shipping rates in European and US - West routes have decreased [84]

化工日报 | 2025-08-26 PTA震荡运行，现货基差上涨 市场分析 成本端，原鲍威尔立场突然转鸽，美联储降息预期升温，宏观情绪受到提振，基本面依旧围绕美俄会晤下俄乌地 缘冲突前景波动，整体区间震荡运行。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN270美元/吨(环比变动+0.50美元/吨）。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下 PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡，基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑 到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购，PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 22 元/吨(环比变动+0元/吨），PTA现货加工费203元/吨（环比变动-26元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费378元/吨（环比变动+6元/吨），PTA检修增加下供需好转，9月PTA平衡表由松平衡转为大幅去库， 恒力减9月合约或引起华南区域供需紧张，关注该装置停车时长；需求端当前也陆续回暖，关注利润修复下检修装 置回归情况。 需求方面，聚酯开工率90.0%（环比+0.6%），当前需求呈现回暖迹象，外贸出货增加同时内销备货逐步启动，织造 加弹负荷进入上升通道，开机高点预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA futures market rose significantly due to unplanned maintenance of some plants this week. The supply - demand outlook has improved, and the spot basis has strengthened. In the short term, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of the Hengli Huizhou plant and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. MEG - In late August, the arrival of ethylene glycol at ports is scarce, and the pick - up at major ports has improved recently. Port inventories will continue to decline in the next two weeks. Starting from early September, the arrival of foreign - sourced goods will increase. The short - term trend of ethylene glycol is expected to be slightly strong, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long run. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4865, and the 01 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, trading was mainly among traders. Some major suppliers sold goods. August goods were traded at 09 + 15 - 30, with prices ranging from 4850 - 4890. Mid - September goods were traded at 09 + 20 - 30, and some at 01 + 15. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 22 [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4512, and the 01 - contract basis is 38, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 50.05 tons, a 2.69 - ton decrease from the previous period, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, which is expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, there are expectations of increased demand. The 200 - million - ton Yisheng Hainan plant is under maintenance, and the 250 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant has unexpectedly shut down [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides PTA supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides ethylene glycol supply - demand balance data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 3.5 Price - The report presents historical price data of PET bottle chips, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and other price - related information from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The report shows inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][51]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The report provides historical data on the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [53][55][57]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - The report presents historical data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (including different production methods), polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 - 2025 [60][63][66].