Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened due to macro - external factors, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. The EG fundamentals remain weak, with significant inventory accumulation pressure from January to February, which may ease in March. [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (down 146 yuan/ton or 3.73% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China EG market was 3712 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan/ton or 2.93% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 51 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 748 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The extrusion of the syngas - based load was not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load was at a high level. [1][2] International Spread No relevant content provided. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Since mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans have been gradually implemented. The weaving load and polyester load have declined rapidly, and the support from rigid demand has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 85.8 tons (up 6.3 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons month - on - month). The total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 12.3 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 2.3 tons. Overall, it is neutral, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable. There are plans for large Saudi contract vessels to enter the warehouse in early February, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high, but the pressure will ease in mid - to late February. [1][2] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, affected by the macro - external environment, the sentiment in the commodity market has weakened, and the EG price has dropped back to the previous low - level range. Observe the market dynamics. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 30, 2026 [1] - **Analyst**: He Xiaoqin, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017709 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral upward trend, recommend reverse calendar spread strategy [1][5] - PTA: Supported by cost, unilateral upward trend [1][6] - MEG: Upward trend [1][6] Core Views - **PX**: With continuous rise in crude oil prices and overall valuation increase in the chemical sector, the medium - term unilateral trend is upward. Before the Spring Festival, there are more pullbacks, and a reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended. Supply is abundant after the restart of the 800,000 - ton Zhonghua Quanzhou plant. The trading logic is mainly on the capital side, and downstream pre - festival rigid procurement demand drives up prices [5]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward with the continuous rise in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the 5,100 - 5,200 support range. Future supply and demand will be weak, and inventory will accumulate. Some polyester plants plan to increase production cuts in February, weakening the rigid demand for PTA. There is pressure above 5,500, but there will be support around 5,100. Short the processing margin on rallies [6]. - **MEG**: Buy on dips and trade in the 3,800 - 4,200 range. Supply pressure remains high, and port inventory has increased to 860,000 tons. However, considering basis and calendar spread can cover storage costs, the downside is limited. There will be more coal - based plant maintenance during the Spring Festival, and supply will decrease marginally. The short - term trend is upward, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse calendar spread during the rally [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 7482 | -34 | -0.45% | PX5 - 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | | PTA Main | 5332 | -38 | -0.71% | PTA5 - 9 | -18 | 6 | -24 | | MEG Main | 3957 | -13 | -0.33% | MEG5 - 9 | -97 | -96 | -1 | | PF Main | 6720 | -28 | -0.41% | PF3 - 4 | -56 | -48 | -8 | | SC Main | 472.5 | 12.2 | 2.65% | SC2 - 3 | -7.8 | -2.1 | -5.7 | [2] Spot Market | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 921.33 | 923.5 | -2.17 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 5250 | 5250 | 0 | | MEG Spot | 3837 | 3843 | -6 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 596 | 584.5 | 11.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 72.36 | 70 | 2.35 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Processing Margin | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 357.42 | 339.67 | 17.75 | | PTA Processing Margin | 415.64 | 363.95 | 51.69 | | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | 120.64 | 142.01 | -21.37 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | 211.39 | 199.35 | 12.03 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | -4.34 | -4.34 | 0 | [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: Naphtha prices remained strong in the afternoon. PX prices were weak today. Two April spot deals were made at $924/ton CFR. The recent PX valuation is $921/ton CFR, down $3 from yesterday [3]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. The PTA load on Thursday was 76.6%, and the operating rate was around 82.7% [3]. - **MEG**: As of January 29, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 74.38% (up 1.33% from the previous period), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.79% (up 2.39% from the previous period). A 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian restarted recently and is expected to produce products this weekend [3]. - **Polyester**: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester plants have frequent changes. The overall polyester load has decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 84.7%. The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, at around 75% [5]. Trend Intensity - PX Trend Intensity: 1 - PTA Trend Intensity: 1 - MEG Trend Intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The EG futures and spot prices rebounded and then fluctuated, but the fundamentals lack driving forces. The EG main contract closed at 3,970 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3,843 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day, and the basis was -118 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton, down $6/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -723 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month-on-month. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 858,000 tons, up 63,000 tons month-on-month. According to Longzhong data, the inventory was 645,000 tons, up 28,000 tons month-on-month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were slightly high, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will continue to accumulate. - On the supply side, the reduction in the syngas production load was not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol production load was high. There was still a large pressure to accumulate inventory under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February. Attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be high from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. - On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented in mid-January, the weaving and polyester production loads declined rapidly, and the support from rigid demand weakened. [1][2] 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of EG are still weak, and the valuation has deviated from the low range after continuous increases. The imports from the United States are relatively small, and the impact of the cold wave may be limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds and the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 - Inter - commodity: None [3] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Price and Basis - The report presents the EG futures and spot prices and the basis, including the closing price of the EG main contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the change in the basis [1]. 4.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - based EG, coal - based syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as the total load of ethylene glycol and the syngas production load [1][10]. 4.3 International Price Difference - The report provides the international price difference of ethylene glycol, specifically the difference between the US FOB price and the Chinese CFR price [19]. 4.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - It includes the sales and production of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [20][23]. 4.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data at various ports in East China, including the total inventory at the main ports in East China, and the inventories at ports such as Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, and the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories are presented [2][29].

化工日报 | 2026-01-28 需求方面，聚酯开工率86.2%（环比-2.1%），近期织造负荷加速下滑，下游开始1月底附近将集中放假；因涤丝价 格跟随原料快速上涨，同时终端难向下游传导，以消化原料备货为主，在原料快速上涨下被动补库。聚酯方面， 聚酯负荷加速下降，春节检修计划陆续兑现，维持1、2月月均负荷估计88.5%、80.5%，关注检修计划兑现。 PF方面，现货生产利润36元/吨（环比+106元/吨）。直纺涤短跟随原料大幅上涨，但需求疲软，涨幅不及原料。负 荷方面个别有小幅提升，大多维持平稳运行，涨价带动销售，短纤库存去化明显。需求方面，纯涤纱及涤棉纱部 分适度跟涨，纯涤纱销售顺畅，库存去化；涤棉纱销售适度好转，库存小幅下降，现金流亏损扩大。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费543元/吨(环比变动-50元/吨)。近期聚酯瓶片工厂春节检修计划陆续执行，年前去库较为 顺畅，市场现货供应量小幅回落，上涨期间成交以贸易商适量补货为主，聚酯瓶片加工费反弹。 资金减仓，PTA大幅回撤 市场要闻与数据 上周资金流入化工板块，作为基本面预期偏好的品种，PTA大幅增仓上涨;周二资金从化工板块流出，PTA减仓13.6 万手，再度大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG all show a strong unilateral trend. For PX, due to macro - policies, it is favored by funds. Although its future supply is expected to be loose, the short - term trend is still strong. For PTA, under the macro - policy, it is also favored by funds, with future supply and demand both weakening and turning to inventory accumulation, but the downside space of the unilateral price is limited. For MEG, with the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices, short - sellers cut their positions. Although the supply pressure is large, the basis and spread are expected to be strong [1][8][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract yesterday was 7468, up 262 or 3.64% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread was 48, up 6 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract yesterday was 5298, up 144 or 2.79% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 34, down 10 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract yesterday was 3847, up 158 or 4.28% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 103, up 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract yesterday was 6640, up 144 or 2.22% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 48, down 8 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract yesterday was 446.4, up 5.6 or 1.27% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1, down 0.4 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price yesterday was 906.67 dollars/ton, up 18.34 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 330.5, up 4.42 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price in East China yesterday was 5157 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 309.31, down 70.31 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG spot price yesterday was 3678 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price yesterday was 567 dollars/ton, up 8.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price yesterday was 65.78 dollars/barrel, down 1.65 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Industry Fundamentals - **PX**: On January 22, Asian xylene prices continued to strengthen. Platts evaluated the Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB South Korea marks at 906.67 dollars/ton and 885.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 18.34 dollars/ton from the 21st. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (1.3%), with only Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. Overseas, some PX plants plan to restart, and some are under maintenance. The overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons. The downstream PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9% [3][5][8]. - **PTA**: This week, there is no significant change in PTA plants. The PTA load on Thursday is 76.6%, and the operating rate calculated by PTA daily output/(domestic PTA capacity/365) is around 82.7%. In December 2025, China's PTA exports increased by 1% month - on - month to 361,934 tons. India's demand continued to grow, and exports to Pakistan increased, while exports to Vietnam and Egypt decreased [5][6]. - **MEG**: As of January 22, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.04% (down 1.39% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 79.40% (down 0.81% from the previous period). A 450,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia has stopped for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of February and early March [6]. - **Polyester**: This week, a filament plant and a chip plant restarted, while a bottle - chip plant and four filament plants stopped for maintenance. The overall polyester load decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 86.7%. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers is basically maintained at around 75%. A 500,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip plant in South China has recently stopped for maintenance. On January 22, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 118%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on January 22 was generally good, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 7 - 80% [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost side has been fluctuating around the situations in Venezuela and Iran recently. The PXN was $330/ton in the day before last trading day (a month-on-month change of -$9.50/ton). The spot floating performance was weak, with March at -5, April around -3/-2, and May dropping to par. The expected increase in PX supply due to improved profitability, along with more imports from internal and external market arbitrage, and the implementation of demand-side maintenance plans, have led to a decline in PXN. However, the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive. The logic that profit restoration will lead to the cancellation or postponement of PX maintenance plans in the second quarter is difficult to confirm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PX maintenance and import conditions [1]. - The spot basis of the TA main contract was -71 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 387 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -29 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 399 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +21 yuan/ton). The implementation of polyester factories' Spring Festival production cut plans has led to a reduction in the average monthly polyester load in February from around 83% to 81%, increasing the PTA inventory accumulation in February and weakening the near-term fundamentals. In the long run, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate was 88.3% (a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%). The weaving load will be concentrated on holidays around late January, which may accelerate the decline. Due to the firm price of polyester yarn, the current terminal has difficulty passing on costs to downstream, and is mainly digesting raw material inventories, with low purchasing enthusiasm and accumulating filament inventories. In January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester plants will be gradually implemented, and the polyester load will accelerate its decline. There will be more maintenance plans for staple fibers and small factories. The average monthly load in January will be around 88%, and the average monthly load in February will be reduced to around 81% [2]. - The spot production profit of PF was -20 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Supported by costs, direct-spun polyester staple fibers remained at a high level. Downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and some yarn mills have completed their raw material reserves before the Spring Festival. The number of yarn mills reducing or suspending production will increase near the end of the month, and staple fibers will face inventory accumulation pressure in the later period [2]. - The spot processing fee of PR was 582 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +11 yuan/ton). Recently, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories have been gradually implemented, and the inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market's spot supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations [2]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, with increased capital positions, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish, but the structure and near-term fundamentals have not significantly improved. Currently, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with PTA being stronger than PX. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned resumptions of PTA production due to the restoration of processing fees. For cross-variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG. There is no cross-period trading strategy [3]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import-Export Profit - Figures involve the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, staple fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [43][45][53] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton-type staple fiber load, original-recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, polyester-cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester-cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][69][72] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next next month - base month) [85][89][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the PTA basis is weak. The crude oil price has retreated, but potential risks remain, and it will fluctuate around the situations in Venezuela and Iran. The PX fundamentals are weakening in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good. The PTA is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, but the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term [1]. - The polyester开工率 is decreasing, the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the filament inventory is accumulating. The PF is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the PR has smoothly reduced inventory before the Spring Festival [1][2]. - For trading strategies, go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the short - term under capital increase, but pay attention to PX fluctuations, polyester and PTA factory actions, and go long on dips for mid - term hedging. Also, go long on PTA and short on MEG for cross - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operation rate [43][45][53] 3.7 Detailed PF Data - Figures involve 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [67][71][74] 3.8 Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][92]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures closed in the red. For linear LL, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable; for drawn PP, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina also remained stable. Fundamentally, the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices continues to support chemical products at the cost end. However, after the short - term rebound, crude oil has started to fluctuate, which has a certain impact on chemicals. After continuous rebounds, polyolefins may fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6706, 6640, and 6664 respectively, with price drops of -14, -27, and -27 and percentage drops of -0.21%, -0.40%, and -0.40% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6459, 6461, and 6492 respectively, with price drops of -37, -21, and -23 and percentage drops of -0.57%, -0.32%, and -0.35% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL January, May, and September contracts were 50, 384215, and 20448 respectively; the trading volumes for PP January, May, and September contracts were 141, 293620, and 21559 respectively. The open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were 71, 495212, and 51049 respectively; the open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were 586, 466241, and 85985 respectively. The changes in open interests for LL January, May, and September contracts were +29, +9748, and +2270 respectively; the changes in open interests for PP January, May, and September contracts were +79, -4253, and -3354 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 66, -24, and -42 respectively; the previous spreads were 53, -24, and -29 respectively. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -2, -31, and 33 respectively; the previous spreads were 14, -33, and 19 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2208 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 600 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6300 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2215 yuan/ton, 6145 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6370 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6950 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively; the previous prices were 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively [2] Market News - On Tuesday (January 20), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for February 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.34 per barrel, up $0.90 from the previous trading day, a 1.51% increase, with a trading range of $58.95 - $60.68. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.98 from the previous trading day, a 1.53% increase, with a trading range of $63.38 - $65.15 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and recommended to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: The US has postponed military action against Iran, causing crude oil prices to retreat, but potential risks remain [1] - PX: PXN was at $331/ton in the previous trading session (a $5.75/ton increase from the previous period). Spot prices are in a C structure of -3 after the contract rollover. Floating prices are weakening. Supply is expected to increase due to improved PX profitability, and more imports are likely from arbitrage. With demand-side maintenance plans being implemented, PXN has retreated to $330/ton, but the medium-term outlook for PX remains positive [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 4 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fees are 349 yuan/ton (a 12 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the main contract's processing fees on the futures market are 340 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). Polyester factories' Spring Festival production cuts are being implemented, with the average polyester load in February expected to drop from around 83% to 81%, leading to increased inventory accumulation in February. In the long term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve after the end of the capacity expansion cycle [1] - Demand: Polyester operating rates are at 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease from the previous period). Weaving loads have slightly declined, with a small number of export orders recently. The rate of decline is slightly lower than expected, but it may accelerate during the concentrated holiday period around late January. Due to the firm prices of polyester yarns, the downstream market is having difficulty absorbing the cost increases, and procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to inventory accumulation in long filaments. Polyester maintenance plans for January are being implemented, with the average load in January around 88% and expected to drop to around 81% in February [2] - PF: Spot production profit is 32 yuan/ton (a 56 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The operating rate of direct-spun polyester staple fibers remains stable, with a slight increase in equity inventory and a decrease in physical inventory. After the market correction, downstream replenishment was active, but demand is weakening, and the market will focus on inventory digestion in the future [2] - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle chips is 552 yuan/ton (a 24 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Polyester bottle chip factories' Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented, and inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market supply of spot goods has slightly decreased. As prices decline, market trading activity has picked up again, and processing fees for polyester bottle chips have slightly recovered [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][17] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include long - filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun long - filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, long - filament DTY factory inventory days, long - filament FDY factory inventory days, long - filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates [45][47][55] PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between raw and recycled fibers (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][71][75] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][92]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is high, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - Domestically, the reduction of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the overall EG production load continues to rise. There is still great pressure on inventory accumulation in January - February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, the import pressure will ease after February as some devices are under maintenance, but the reduction in imports is slow, and the pressure in January remains high. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, and the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. - For trading strategies, the current price is low with some buying support, but due to high downstream implicit inventory, increasing port inventory, and slow reduction in imports, the inventory accumulation pressure in January - February is large, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to conduct an inverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG futures contract was 3,755 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.08%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,638 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (-1.54%), and the spot basis was -121 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -73 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -902 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. International Price Difference No specific data analysis provided, only mentioned the "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - As the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being implemented in January, the weaving and polyester loads may decline rapidly, weakening the rigid demand support [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 79.5 tons (down 0.7 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrival in the main ports this week is 20.5 tons, and the arrival in secondary ports is 1 ton, with high overall arrivals, and inventory accumulation in the main ports is expected [1].