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化工和农业上游价格持续回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of the upstream sectors in the chemical and agricultural industries are continuously rising, while the mid - stream and downstream sectors show different trends. There are also important policy releases and event warnings in the production and service industries [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued the "Special Action Implementation Plan for 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" to promote AI in the manufacturing process. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration issued a snow disaster warning for facilities agriculture and animal husbandry in some regions from January 29 - 31 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Five departments in Shenzhen issued a three - year plan (2026 - 2028) to optimize the consumption environment, aiming to promote home consumption, improve the smart home industry ecosystem, and encourage the integration of home products with AI [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Chemical**: The prices of PTA and polyethylene are continuously rising [2]. - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are rising [2]. - **Energy**: The international crude oil price has been increased [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [3]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt has declined [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 28, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork showed year - on - year increases of 0.32%, 4.28%, 4.26%, 0.35%, and 0.75% respectively [40]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel had year - on - year increases of 1.40%, 4.33%, 2.29%, and 0.31% respectively, while one of the aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.66% [40]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, 0.41%, and - 0.87% respectively [40]. - **Non - metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of glass, natural rubber, and the China Plastic City price index had year - on - year increases of 1.56%, 3.42%, and 0.83% respectively [40]. - **Energy**: On January 28, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal had year - on - year changes of 3.36%, 2.57%, 2.16%, and - 0.25% respectively [40]. - **Chemical**: On January 28, the spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash had year - on - year changes of 4.10%, 3.70%, - 0.14%, and 0.00% respectively [40]. - **Real Estate**: On January 28, the cement price index, building materials composite index, and concrete price index had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, - 0.32%, and 0.00% respectively [40].
平安证券(香港)港股晨报-20260129
港股晨报 港股回顾 点,跌幅随即扩大至 247 点,低见 23730 点,其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点,午后大盘走势偏软,尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘,恒指收报 23831 点,下跌 145 点或 0.61%;国指收报 9656 点,下跌 47 点或 0.49%,大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿,其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿,港股通(深)净 周三港股放量大涨,恒生指数收涨 2.58%报 27826.91 点,创 4 年半新高;恒生科技指数大涨 2.53%;恒生中国企业指数大涨 2.89%。市场成交 额 3615.23 亿港元,较前一交易日 2543.73 亿港 元明显放量。恒生指数成分股中 79 只上涨,7 只 下跌,其中中国宏桥飙升 7.3%,泡泡玛特筹划新 海外布局,大涨 7.0%,中国电信攀升 6.3%。 美股市场 1. 市场等待联储局稍后公布议息结果,美股周三发 力,三大股指全数向上,标普 500 指数升 0.3%; 纳指升近 0.6%,升幅领先,道指靠稳,微升 9 点。亚马逊(AMZN.US)确认裁减 1.6 万员工,不排 除进一步裁员,升约 1 ...
顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待
British Securities· 2026-01-29 01:55
英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今,贵金属率先开启牛市,成为周期行情的先行者;随后工业 金属接棒,铜价创下历史新高,碳酸锂上演 V 型反转,背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨,正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎,而按照传导顺序,能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下,随着反内卷政策持续推进,国内稳增长政策持续 发力,经济供需格局有望改善,复苏预期强化,直接利好对经济敏感的板块,后 续经济数据(如 PPI)若持续改善,将验证复苏逻辑,驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块,周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号:S0990513100001 电话:0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱:huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒,依托上证 50 ...
平安证券(香港)港股晨报-20260128
港股晨报 港股回顾 点,跌幅随即扩大至 247 点,低见 23730 点,其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点,午后大盘走势偏软,尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘,恒指收报 23831 点,下跌 145 点或 0.61%;国指收报 9656 点,下跌 47 点或 0.49%,大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿,其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿,港股通(深)净 周二港股股指单边上行,保险、黄金板块领涨。 恒生指数收涨 1.35%,报 27126.95 点;恒生科技 指数涨 0.5%。市场全天成交 2543.7 亿港元。保 险股走强;黄金股再度上涨,紫金矿业刷新历史 新高,紫金黄金国际涨逾 11%。其他个股方面, MINIMAX-WP 涨 26.48%,智谱涨 7.56%,哔哩哔 哩-W 涨 5.86%,兆易创新涨 4.56%。 美股市场 1. 市场关注周三联储局公布今年首次货币政策会议 结果,同时等待科技股业绩。美股周二个别发 展,道指全日跌 0.8%,收报 49,003 点。相反, 纳指升 0.9%,报 23,817 点,标普 500 指数亦升 0.4%至 6,978 点, ...
2025年甘其毛都口岸货运量创新高
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-27 20:00
(来源:内蒙古日报) 作为中蒙重要的能源通道,甘其毛都口岸主要进口蒙古国煤炭、铜精粉等矿产品,出口重型机械、基建 材料及电力等。2025年,该口岸货运量占内蒙古口岸货运总量的32.1%。 转自:内蒙古日报 本报巴彦淖尔1月27日电 (记者 薄金凤)近日,在巴彦淖尔市乌拉特中旗甘其毛都口岸,满载进口煤炭 与铜精粉的跨境货运车辆穿梭不息,一派繁忙景象。据乌拉特海关最新统计,该口岸2025年货运量达 4243.3万吨,同比增长3.7%,创下开放36年来历史新高。 据悉,乌拉特海关创新跨境运输车辆自动验放、自主过卡、智能机审等作业模式,提升监管质效。打造 多式联运场景,高效运行传统集卡车和AGV运输车跨境过货,助力提速扩量。借力中蒙AEO互认安排 实施,让AEO企业应享尽享优先放行、降低货物查验率等政策便利,为外贸增长注入强劲动力。 乌拉特海关一线人员现场查验进口铜精粉提升通关效率是货运量攀升的关键,在乌拉特海关监控指挥中 心,值守人员运用智能化调度系统,对进出境车辆进行快速验放与智能审图。在环保煤棚与保税仓库 内,现场关员正严格执行矿产品采样作业。"我们通过智慧海关建设,实现车辆快验秒放,同步压缩实 验室检测周期, ...
绿地控股26天新增诉讼2452件 累计金额69.86亿元
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-27 06:39
中国经济网北京1月27日讯绿地控股(600606)(600606.SH)昨日发布关于公司及控股子公司新增诉讼的 公告。公司及控股子公司在2025年12月28日至2026年1月22日新增诉讼2452件,累计金额69.86亿元。具 体情况如下: 1.被诉事项情况 2025年12月28日至2026年1月22日,公司及控股子公司作为被告的诉讼事项共有2341件,累计金额55.56 亿元。按诉讼类别划分:建设工程施工/采购诉讼纠纷1093件,金额44.59亿元;房地产买卖/租赁诉讼纠 纷739件,金额3.91亿元;其他诉讼纠纷509件,金额7.06亿元。 2.主诉事项情况 2025年12月28日至2026年1月22日,公司及控股子公司作为原告的诉讼事项共有111件,累计金额14.30 亿元。按诉讼类别划分:建设工程施工/采购诉讼纠纷55件,金额9.89亿元;房地产买卖/租赁诉讼纠纷 11件,金额0.27亿元;其他诉讼纠纷45件,金额4.14亿元。 绿地控股表示,截至目前,公司所处的房地产及基建行业依旧处于调整周期,公司及控股子公司所涉及 的相关诉讼事项仍面临较大压力。对此,公司高度重视,把诉讼化解工作摆在重要位置,采取 ...
中游持续分化,上游价格回暖
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 05:15
宏观日报 | 2026-01-27 中游持续分化,上游价格回暖 中观事件总览 生产行业:1)北京市经济和信息化局等部门联合印发《北京市关于促进商业卫星遥感数据资源开发利用的若干措 施(2026-2030年)》。关于加强基础能力建设,《若干措施》提出,鼓励互联网企业、地理信息企业基于商业卫星数 据开发增值服务,培育"卫星数据+行业"融合型经营主体。鼓励有能力的企业对卫星数据上下游企业进行并购重组, 整合完善地面站网、数据应用服务产业链环节,打造具备全球竞争力的链主企业 中游:1)化工:PX、尿素开工持续高位。2)能源:电厂耗煤低位。3)基建:道路沥青开工低位 服务行业:1)国新办26日就2025年商务工作及运行情况举行新闻发布会。商务部对外贸易司司长王志华表示,今 年将大力发展服务贸易,完善跨境服务贸易负面清单管理制度,有序推进服务市场开放。建设国家服务贸易创新 发展示范区,扩大优势生产型服务出口,促进知识产权、人力资源等服务贸易集聚发展。鼓励设计、咨询、金融、 会计、法律等专业服务机构,提升国际化服务能力;鼓励教育、中医药、中餐等传统优势服务出口;出台扩大入 境消费政策措施。 下游:1)地产:一、二、三线城市 ...
平安证券(香港)港股晨报-20260127
港股晨报 港股回顾 点,跌幅随即扩大至 247 点,低见 23730 点,其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点,午后大盘走势偏软,尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘,恒指收报 23831 点,下跌 145 点或 0.61%;国指收报 9656 点,下跌 47 点或 0.49%,大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿,其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿,港股通(深)净 周一港股恒指震荡微升,资源股普涨;恒生科技 下挫,科网股多数走低。恒生指数收涨 0.06%, 报 26765.52 点;恒生科技指数下挫 1.24%;恒生 中国企业指数微跌 0.15%。市场成交额 2616.99 亿港元。恒生指数成分股中 46 只上涨,39 只下 跌,其中中国神华涨 4.4%;紫金矿业涨 4.4%;中 国海洋石油涨 4.0%。 资料来源:WIND 如此报告被平安证券(香港)以外其他金融机构转发,该金融机构将独自承担其转发报告的责任。如该金融机构的客户欲就本报告所提到的证券进行交易或需要更多资料, 应联系该转发的金融机构。本报告不是平证证券(香港)作出的投资建议,平证证券(香港)或其任何董事、雇员或代理 ...
二手房挂牌价反弹——每周经济观察第56期
一瑜中的· 2026-01-25 15:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including macroeconomic activity, real estate, consumer goods, infrastructure, trade, and commodity prices. Group 1: Economic Activity - The Huachuang Macro WEI index increased to 8.15% as of January 18, up from 5.28% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity, potentially influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival [2] - The weekly container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a 0.6% increase week-on-week and a 7.6% year-on-year increase as of January 19 [22] - Movie box office revenues improved significantly, with a year-on-year decline of only 23% as of January 18, compared to a 55.3% decline in early November [8] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumer Goods - The sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 39% in 67 cities as of January 24, worsening from a 35% decline earlier in the month [3] - Retail sales of passenger cars remained negative, with a year-on-year decline of 22% as of January 18, although this was an improvement from a 32% decline previously [3] - The average land premium rate in 100 cities was 1.59% as of January 18, showing low volatility [12] Group 3: Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure activity remains weak, with the cement dispatch rate falling to 26.4% as of January 23, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous week [18] - The operating rate of asphalt plants slightly decreased to 26.8% as of January 22, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [18] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showed a year-on-year decline of 4% as of January 16 [18] Group 4: Trade - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% as of January 19 [22] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 28.8% year-on-year as of January 23 [23] - South Korea's exports increased by 14.9% year-on-year in early January, with semiconductor exports rising significantly [21] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices have generally risen, with gold prices reaching $4936 per ounce, up 7.5%, and oil prices increasing to $61.6 per barrel, up 2.7% [41] - Agricultural product prices have also increased, with egg prices rising by 7.2% and pork prices by 2.3% [42] - The lithium carbonate price surged by 14.9%, reflecting strong demand in the market [44] Group 6: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policy - As of January 23, the funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 at 1.3983% and DR007 at 1.4935% [4] - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to increase total spending while optimizing the structure and improving efficiency, with a focus on boosting consumption and ensuring financial stability [45][46]
宏观经济周报:经济结构优化接力赛-20260124
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-24 14:46
Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the target of around 5%[1] - The GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 fell to 4.5%, marking a new low in recent years[1] - Monthly GDP growth rates for October to December were approximately 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.7% respectively, indicating signs of recovery in December[1] Structural Changes - A notable shift occurred in the economic structure: the secondary industry (industrial and construction sectors) saw a decline, while the tertiary industry (services) experienced growth[1] - The acceleration of the service sector is expected to create more jobs and increase income, providing sustainable support for domestic demand[1] Policy Outlook for 2026 - The newly announced fiscal and financial policies focus on stimulating private investment, with four out of six specific policies aimed at supporting private investment[2] - The emphasis on private investment over government-led infrastructure projects signals a shift towards "investing in people" rather than "investing in things"[2] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks from overseas market volatility, which could introduce uncertainties into the economic outlook[2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, with significant declines in key indicators such as movie ticket sales (down 26.9%) and automobile sales (down 32.0%) compared to the previous year[21] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.23% year-on-year, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[24] - Geopolitical risks are rising, potentially affecting global trade dynamics and pricing systems[25]