1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber Industry - The natural rubber market may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price fluctuations in a range. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, the price is expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish in the medium - long term, and short - term rebounds can be used as opportunities to go short. For glass, there are short - term trading opportunities for low - level rebounds, but the industry still needs capacity clearance [3]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in before Iranian gas restrictions [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate between 6,200 - 6,800; PTA may range between 4,300 - 4,800; for ethylene glycol, hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads; short - fiber has limited rebound space; bottle - grade polyester chips will follow cost fluctuations [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polypropylene shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction, but the basis is weak. For polyethylene, the demand for agricultural films is strong, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of year - end foreign market inventory clearance [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and the market trend is bearish. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and prices should be shorted on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight balance, but price drivers are insufficient, and the EB12 contract should be shorted on price rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons; China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventories increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons;上期所天然橡胶厂库期货库存 increased by 3,931 tons to 48,586 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The glass 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton; the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 3 yuan/ton [3]. - **Output and Capacity**: The soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 161,300 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventories increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons; glass factory soda ash inventories remained unchanged at 204,000 tons [3]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton; the太仓 basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 10,400 tons to 386,410 tons; methanol port inventories increased by 10,600 tons to 1.517 million tons [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%; the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 1.09% to 84.98% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) increased by 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.32 dollars/barrel to 59.75 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price increased by 45 yuan/ton to 6,560 yuan/ton; FDY150/96 price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 6,770 yuan/ton [8]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX increased by 0.1 dollars/ton to 826 dollars/ton; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 83 yuan/ton to 6,772 yuan/ton [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4,664 yuan/ton [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 4,013 yuan/ton; EG futures 2601 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 3,942 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 6,802 yuan/ton; PP2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 6,574 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventories increased by 74,200 tons to 490,000 tons; PP trade inventories increased by 8,600 tons to 229,000 tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%; the PP device operating rate increased by 0.9% to 77.8% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to self - use price remained unchanged at 2,500 yuan/ton; V2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 4,915 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3%; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.5% to 77.1% [13]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2%; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 1.2% to 89.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventories increased by 36,000 tons to 223,000 tons; PVC total social inventories decreased by 10,000 tons to 545,000 tons [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene increased by 1 dollar/ton to 664 dollars/ton; BZ futures 2603 decreased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,422 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%; the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 75.1% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced its third-quarter financial report and plans for significant investments, including the issuance of overseas perpetual bonds and the expansion of production capacity in its subsidiary. Financial Data - The third-quarter financial report has been approved by the board, confirming the accuracy and completeness of the financial information [8] - The financial statements for the first nine months of 2025 are prepared but not audited [3][7] Investment Plans - The company plans to invest approximately 135 million RMB in a project to produce 30,000 tons of high-quality latex silk annually, which is expected to add 15,000 tons of production capacity [19][22] - The investment has been approved by the board and does not require further shareholder approval [20][21] Bond Issuance - The subsidiary Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited intends to issue up to 200 million USD in overseas perpetual bonds to optimize its capital structure and replace existing debt [12][14] - The bond issuance is subject to regulatory approval and aims to enhance the company's financing capabilities [15] Project Impact - The latex silk project is expected to strengthen the subsidiary's market position and enhance the overall competitiveness of the company by increasing the value-added processing of rubber products [24]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The outlook for natural rubber this week is oscillating weakly, and the weak pattern may continue. Supply growth expectations are strong due to the expected decrease in rainfall in the producing areas, which restricts the upside of rubber prices. After the holiday, Qingdao inventory may show a slight accumulation. With insufficient short - term market drivers and the impact of macro - level tariffs, the natural rubber price is expected to be in a weak pattern. Suggested strategies include waiting and seeing or taking a short - selling approach on rallies for RU, considering a shift from positive - spread to reverse - spread trading based on arrival conditions, and observing for cross - variety trading [101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) called for setting a livelihood - sustaining rubber price for rubber farmers [5]. - In August 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Domestic consumption increased year - on - year and month - on - month [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck sales soared by about 82% year - on - year, and the market has achieved six consecutive months of growth [7]. 3.2 Price - From September 26th to the present, RU, NR, and TSR20 prices declined, while the price of Japanese RSS3 rose. As of October 10, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15315 yuan/ton, 12380 yuan/ton, 170.40 cents/kg, and 312.40 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 1.00%, - 0.68%, - 1.27%, and 1.33% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads showed changes. For example, the full - cream to RU01 basis was - 715 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, with a 12.80% month - on - month increase and a 37.55% year - on - year increase [16]. - Other spreads: RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased. Non - standard basis spreads and light - dark color spreads also had respective changes [20][26]. - Substitute prices: The cost support for butadiene rubber weakened, and the supply also dragged down the short - term spot market [33]. 3.3 Fund Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds fluctuated significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR recovered, and the settled funds also fluctuated significantly [36]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Supply - Weather in producing areas: Rainfall in southern Thailand is slightly lower year - on - year, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand is approaching the end. During the National Day holiday, precipitation in Yunnan and Hainan increased [43][44]. - Raw material prices: Raw material prices continued to diverge. The prices of Thai cup lump and smoked sheets increased slightly, while the prices of Thai, Hainan, and Yunnan latex decreased [46]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex production both decreased [54]. - Upstream processing profits: Rubber processing profits continued to recover [55]. - Delivery profits: The delivery profits of whole - milk rubber recovered [58]. - Exports: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also had different trends for different types of rubber. In September, Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased. In August, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly. In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level [66][72][76]. - Imports: In August, China imported 52.08 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 9.68% month - on - month increase and a 5.39% year - on - year increase. The imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and Indonesian mixed rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber decreased significantly [83]. 3.4.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some sample enterprises carried out shutdown maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The inventory of all - steel tires continued to rebound, while the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased marginally [86]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales continued to recover year - on - year and month - on - month, and passenger - car sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - Road transport turnover: In August, the freight turnover of road transport improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of September 26, the social inventory of natural rubber continued to decline, with a larger decline in light - colored rubber than in dark - colored rubber. As of October 10, the futures inventories of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber on relevant exchanges all decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [95][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, natural rubber is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. Supply is in the peak season with weakening upward momentum of raw materials. Downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday restocking, and it is difficult for the spot inventory of natural rubber to see a significant reduction. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds approaching the holiday and the weakening of the macro - commodity sentiment, it is expected that RU will fluctuate weakly [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 2.906 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and its total exports to China were 1.807 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27% [5]. - In August 2025, the global light - vehicle sales reached 7.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the cumulative sales from January to August increased by 5% to 59 million units [6]. - On September 24, 2025, the US government officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products since August 1 [6]. - In August 2025, EU passenger - car sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year to 677,786 units, but the cumulative sales in the first eight months decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, RU was weak, while the futures prices of standard rubber and smoked sheets rose. On September 26, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 172.6 cents/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 308.3 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: On September 26, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU01 was - 820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.80% and a year - on - year increase of 43.06%; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was 35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 600.00% and a year - on - year increase of 124.14% [18]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread increased. The prices of imported rubber in the market decreased this week, and the trading of non - standard basis was light. The spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [19][22][25]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the overall price of synthetic rubber declined. The supply of butadiene increased, and the cost side lacked driving force. The pre - holiday restocking was coming to an end, and downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [30]. 3.5 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased slightly, and the settled funds decreased significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds also declined significantly. On September 26, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 12.10, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 10.54%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 27.26, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 252.19% [33][35]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - **Weather in Producing Areas**: In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern part was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the rainfall in the northeastern part was at a seasonal high. In China, affected by typhoons, the precipitation in Hainan increased on the 25th and 26th, but the average precipitation in the past month decreased compared with last week. Yunnan is gradually entering the end of the rainy season [38][40]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Raw material prices were differentiated. The price of Thai cup lump rebounded, while the prices of Thai latex, smoked sheets, and Hainan latex decreased [42]. - **Raw Material Spreads**: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump decreased, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production increased [50]. - **Upstream Processing Profits**: The overall rubber processing profit improved [51]. - **Delivery Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber in Hainan continued to decline, while that in Yunnan increased marginally [56]. - **Exports**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of natural rubber from Thailand to China, Indonesia to China, and Vietnam to China all showed different degrees of growth. In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [62][65][68][72][76][79]. 3.6.2 Demand - **Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: Currently, most tire enterprises maintain their previous operating levels. The overall operating rate is slightly adjusted. The tire inventory continues to rebound slightly. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday, which will have a greater impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next period [85]. - **Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales**: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. In August, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to recover both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - **Highway Transportation Turnover**: In August, the freight turnover of highway transportation improved slightly both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [89]. 3.6.3 Inventory - **Spot Inventory**: The current natural rubber inventory continues to decline. The inventory in Qingdao continues to decline moderately, the Yunnan rubber inventory shows a slight increase, and the decline in Vietnam is gradually expanding compared with the previous period [91]. - **Futures Inventory**: On September 26, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 149,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.78%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.28% [94].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain