| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...

Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies in the agricultural sector amidst a challenging market environment, highlighting potential investment opportunities in key areas such as food security and livestock production [2][8]. Group 1: Swine Farming - The report indicates that the reduction in breeding sow inventory has begun, with a notable decline to 39.9 million heads as of October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decrease and a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [20]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.33 yuan/kg in November 2025, down 25.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating significant price pressure in the market [27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as they are expected to have stronger resilience and market share growth in a low-margin environment [11][20]. Group 2: Natural Rubber - The report discusses the slow contraction of supply in the natural rubber market, with production challenges due to climate change and labor cost increases, which are expected to impact future supply dynamics [49][55]. - It highlights that the current natural rubber prices are in a new bottoming phase, influenced by both supply constraints and weak demand from the tire and automotive sectors [59]. - The report recommends Hainan Rubber as a key player, noting its strategic land resource management and potential for growth in a recovering market [60][66]. Group 3: Sugar and Tomato Industries - The sugar industry is projected to see a production increase to 11.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 4.8% rise year-on-year, driven by improved pricing for sugarcane [77]. - The report notes that the import of non-standard sugar sources has decreased significantly, which has positively impacted profit margins for domestic sugar producers [77]. - The tomato industry is undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability in the face of market challenges [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical conflicts. The raw material prices remained firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement was cautious, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term as there is no obvious upward or downward driving force [108]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for RU05 within the range of 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contract, and continued observation for cross - variety trading [109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a new monthly high. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 1.5 billion units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year. The full - year automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with latex gloves being the main consumer [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transition technology while continuing to invest in electric vehicles [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,230 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, 173 cents/kg, and 330.8 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 2.45%, 1.23%, and 1.66% [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather in Thailand: The southern part of Thailand has entered the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the rainy season in the northeastern part has ended with lower - than - average temperatures [40]. - Weather in China: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas digested the sentiment of production cuts due to the end of the tapping season, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia affected tapping and factory production, causing raw material prices to rise after a decline [44]. - Raw material spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has decreased, while the spread between Hainan's glue going into the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory has increased [48]. - Upstream processing profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally decreased [51]. - Export data: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with latex having a relatively large increase. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China also decreased significantly [62][65][68][74][75]. - Import data: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline, while imports of Indonesian standard and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: During the week, the production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving up capacity utilization to some extent. However, the overall shipment pace was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control. Tire inventories started to accumulate again [84]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In October 2025, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month but at a slower pace. In November 2025, passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline [89]. - Road transport turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao Port has weakened, and the general trade shipment volume has "recovered" compared to the previous period [97]. - Futures inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.17%. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.87% [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The raw material prices are firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement is cautious, and port inventories continue to accumulate. There is no obvious upward or downward driving force in the short - term [107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production reached 3.532 million units, a record high. The export of automobiles reached 728,000 units, exceeding 700,000 for the first time. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles both approached 1.5 million units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transitional technology [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,230 yuan/ton, a 1.10% increase from the previous period; NR2605 was 12,345 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase [10][12]. - The basis and spread of rubber prices have changed. For example, the spread between whole - milk rubber and RU05 was - 330 yuan/ton on December 12, 2025, a 9.59% increase from the previous period [13]. - The prices of substitute products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber have also changed. The price of butadiene has supported the price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the downstream resistance to high - price offers remains [32]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region is in the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the northeastern region has ended the rainy season with lower temperatures. Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended their rainy seasons [40][42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas stopped production, the impact on prices was digested. Due to the tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia, raw material prices first fell and then rose [44]. - Upstream processing profits: Thailand's rubber processing profits generally decreased. For example, on December 12, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1,666 yuan/ton, a 13,983.33% decrease from the previous period [51][53]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. The exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - month, mainly due to the sharp decline in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month in November [63][69][75][76]. - Import situation: In October 2025, China imported 5.108 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 14.27% decrease from the previous month and a 0.89% decrease year - on - year [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall inventory began to accumulate again. In October 2025, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly, while the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly. The sales of heavy - duty trucks increased slightly, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow in November [86][91]. - Road transportation turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Social inventory: As of December 5, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased at a slower pace, and the general trade shipments improved [99]. - Futures inventory: On December 12, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a 25.17% increase from the previous week [104]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - View: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the rubber market fluctuates within a range. The raw material prices are firm, but downstream procurement is cautious, and inventories continue to accumulate [107]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, use the RU05 range - trading idea within [14,800 - 15,800]. For inter - period trading, conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread strategy. For inter - variety trading, observe [108].

《国资报告》：对于党的二十届四中全会精神，您有哪些学习体会？ 马咏华：党的二十届四中全会，是我党在向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的新征程上举行的一次十分重要的会议，让我们倍感振奋、催人奋进。四中全会要 求，要深化国资国企改革，做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本，推进国有经济布局优化和结构调整，增强国有企业核心功能，提升核心竞争力。四中全会 还指出，要高标准推进海南自由贸易港建设，都为海南的国资国企改革发展，指明了方向，提供了根本遵循。我们要按照中央和海南省委省政府的要求， 进一步推进海南国资国企，做强做优做大，在自贸港建设中发挥好主力军和顶梁柱的作用，为自贸港高水平建设海南自由贸易港和推进海南高质量发展发 挥战略支撑作用。具体来说，我们要进一步把资源、资产、资本、资金向优势产业、优秀企业集中，向旅游业、现代服务业、高新技术产业和热带特色高 效农业集中，聚焦"向天图强、向海图强、向种图强、向数图强、向绿图强"，培育新质生产力，为海南打造最有海南特色和优势的现代化产业体系做出我 们的贡献。我们还将进一步完善国有企业履行战略功能的评价体系，让国有企业为海南经济高质量发展和民生保障、基础设施建设发挥更好的作用。 今年10月底， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，产能压力传导下，当前肥猪价格回落到11元/公斤附近，7kg 断奶仔猪价格在200元/头左右，行业基本处于全面亏损阶段。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶 段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。当前行业去产能仍以大型规模场淘汰低效产能以及散户亏损退出为 主，中型场对26年预期偏乐观，有逆势补产能的倾向。但考虑到行业深亏局面仍将持续一个季度以上， 逆势扩张对资金压力较大，近期增加的母猪可能会在未来一个阶段反向成为产能去化加速的推手。 东方证券主要观点如下： 生猪：产能去化加速 当前猪价现实与预期双弱，叠加政策驱动，生猪养殖行业去产能加速。产能压力传导下，当前肥猪价格 回落到11元/公斤附近，7kg断奶仔猪价格在200元/头左右，行业基本处于全面亏损阶段。考虑到当前肥 猪和仔猪价格近期已降至年内低点，后续价格有望进一步回落(目前看，2026年Q1肥猪出栏量将持续处 于高位)。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。此外，政策端也 在持续强化对头部集团场产能的限制，两者叠加下，行业去产能有望持续兑现，助力猪价长期上涨。 11月能繁去化趋势延续 从第三方机构能 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

近日，在上海期货交易所支持下，中泰期货股份有限公司（以下简称"中泰期货"）与中国太平洋财产保 险股份有限公司云南分公司联合实施的2025年云南省墨江哈尼族自治县天然橡胶"保险+期货"试点项目 圆满收官。项目为当地4400吨天然橡胶提供价格风险保障，惠及1500余户胶农，最终实现赔付400余万 元，赔付率高达140%，以金融创新实践为胶农收益筑牢"安全网"，为地方特色产业发展注入强劲动 力。 项目的成功不仅得益于金融工具的科学运用，更离不开扎实的产融结合与知识普及工作。试点初期，中 泰期货携手墨江县茶叶和特色生物产业发展中心、云南天然橡胶产业集团墨江有限公司及巴豆村村民代 表，共同开展"保险+期货"专题培训活动。活动中，中泰期货通过生动案例解读复杂金融概念，分享服 务"三农"的实践经验，提升了当地对现代金融工具的认知与接纳度。四方代表还就产业信息共享、产业 链协同发展达成多项合作意向，为后续深度合作奠定坚实基础。 作为"保险+期货"模式服务乡村振兴的生动缩影，墨江项目再次彰显了期货市场在服务实体经济、管理 行业价格风险中的关键作用。中泰期货相关负责人表示，未来公司将持续发挥金融专业优势，深化"保 险+期货"模式 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 行业资讯 1.【泰国宣布解除宋卡府紧急状态】泰国总理阿努廷当地时间4日签署法令，宣布自12月5日起取消宋卡府的紧急状态。从11月中旬开始，泰国南部因连遭 强降雨引发严重洪灾，宋卡府受灾尤为突出，该府发生300年一遇大洪灾，造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。为保障民众安全、维护公共秩序并应对灾害损失， 泰国政府依据《紧急状态法》于11月25日发布紧急状态令，宣布宋卡进入紧急状态。随着水位回落、灾情缓解，各相关部门的行政管理和公共卫生等工作 在地方政府与全国民众协力支持下已恢复正常运作。基于当地洪涝 ...