Economic Overview - The GDP of Zhaoqing City reached 135.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [2] - The primary industry added value was 17.5 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 53.6 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 64.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2] Agricultural Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors achieved a total output value of 30.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - Specific growth rates included planting (4.2%), forestry (6.5%), animal husbandry (4.8%), fishery (6.4%), and auxiliary activities (10.9%) [2] - Vegetable production reached 1.446 million tons, increasing by 3.1%; live pig output was 1.746 million heads, up by 7.1%; and total aquatic products amounted to 270,400 tons, growing by 4.4% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries both grew by 4.6%, while mining decreased by 19.0% [3] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included electrical machinery (21.8%), automotive (20.2%), and computer and electronic equipment (15.6%) [3] - Newly established industrial enterprises showed remarkable performance with a 116.9% increase in added value, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] - Advanced manufacturing increased by 17.6%, accounting for 39.0% of the industrial added value [3] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 60.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4] - Retail sales of goods were 57.3 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%, while catering revenue was 3.52 billion yuan, increasing by 2.0% [4] - Urban retail sales were 48.0 billion yuan, up by 2.8%, and rural retail sales were 12.8 billion yuan, also growing by 2.8% [4] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, with increases of 152.6% and 77.3% respectively [4] - Online retail sales through public networks reached 12.3 billion yuan, growing by 10.9% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 8.8% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment, however, grew by 10.0%, while construction and industrial investments fell by 1.2% and 11.8% respectively [4] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 39.2%, with commercial housing sales area dropping by 37.9% [5] Financial Sector - By the end of June, the total balance of deposits was 411.4 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the total balance of loans was 361.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.6% [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices down by 0.5% and non-food prices down by 0.8% [5]

Group 1 - Domestic demand is the main driver of economic growth in the first half of the year, contributing 68.8% to economic growth, with a significant increase to 77% in the second quarter [1][3] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, with retail sales of home appliances and cultural office supplies increasing over 25% year-on-year [1][2] - The service consumption growth rate was 4.9% year-on-year, with strong demand in cultural entertainment and tourism sectors [1][3] Group 2 - Capital formation contributed 16.8% to economic growth, with equipment investment increasing by 17.3% and infrastructure investment by 4.6% [2][4] - Investment in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and computer manufacturing grew by 26.3% and 21.5% respectively, indicating a shift towards new economic drivers [2][4] - High-tech service industry investment increased by 8.6%, with information services growing by 37.4% [2][4] Group 3 - The domestic market's size and potential for consumption and investment are highlighted as unique advantages for the economy, with a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000 [3][4] - There is significant potential for growth in service consumption and investment, with a focus on improving income and leisure time for consumers [4][5] - Strategies to enhance service quality and support innovation in consumption scenarios are emphasized to stimulate further growth [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth of consumer spending in China, which significantly contributes to GDP growth, with domestic demand accounting for 68.8% of GDP growth in the first half of the year, and final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1][3] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to a series of incremental policies that have effectively stimulated the market, showcasing the potential of China's large-scale economy [1][3] - Consumer preferences are shifting from basic needs to quality and experience, as evidenced by the strong sales of home appliances and cultural products, with retail sales in these categories growing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The emergence of new consumer demands is driving growth in niche markets, with initiatives like the "cool economy" and various local events aimed at enhancing consumer experience [2] - Local governments are actively promoting diverse and personalized consumption, with initiatives such as fashion consumption expansion plans and unique local events to stimulate market dynamics [2] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency as a key task for 2025, with specific action plans to address barriers to consumer spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's retail sector in June 2025, highlighting a slowdown in growth rates across various categories of consumer goods, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and changes in promotional cycles [2][8]. Retail Performance Summary - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 24.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Category-Specific Insights - Supermarket sector saw a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in grain and oil products, but this was a decline of 5.9 percentage points from May [3]. - Beverage sales dropped by 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Daily necessities experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from May [3]. Apparel and Cosmetics - Textile and apparel retail sales grew by 1.9% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points from May [4]. - Cosmetic sales fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. Jewelry and Electronics - The gold and jewelry sector reported a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, but this was a decline of 15.7 percentage points from May [5]. - Home appliances saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 32.4%, although this represented a decrease of 20.6 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Other Categories - Tobacco and alcohol retail sales decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down 11.9 percentage points from May [7]. - Communication equipment sales grew by 13.9% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 19.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - Cultural and office supplies saw a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from May [7]. Market Dynamics - The slowdown in retail sales growth in June is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and the elongation of promotional cycles, leading to an earlier release of consumer demand [8]. - Essential goods experienced a decline in growth rates, with beverages and tobacco categories showing negative year-on-year growth [8]. - Optional goods, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, faced demand suppression due to fluctuating gold prices, resulting in a decrease in growth rates [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant recovery and growth of China's consumer market in the first half of the year, driven by effective policy measures and increased domestic demand [1][2][3] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 0.4 percentage point acceleration compared to the first quarter [1] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% of this contribution, indicating that consumption is the main driver of economic growth [1] Group 2 - The "old for new" consumption policy has not only stimulated current consumption but also fostered new concepts such as green and smart consumption, promoting a positive interaction between industrial and consumption upgrades [2] - The Chinese government has been expanding its visa-free "circle" to boost international inbound tourism and consumption, while cities like Beijing and Shanghai are actively developing international consumption centers [2] - New consumer demands are emerging rapidly, with major cities witnessing increased market activity and innovative cultural and sports consumption scenarios being developed in lower-tier cities [2] Group 3 - The consumer market in China is expected to remain active in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption [3] - There is significant room for existing policies to continue supporting consumption and improving livelihoods, with 138 billion yuan in central funds set to be distributed in the latter half of the year to support the "old for new" consumption initiative [3] - The cumulative effect of the "old for new" policy and other consumption-promoting measures is anticipated to enhance market performance, leading to a potential upward trend in consumer activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is stable and improving, with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and pressure resistance of the Chinese economy [2][3]. Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [4]. - The first quarter GDP growth was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decrease to 5.2% [2]. Sector Analysis - The primary industry added value was 31,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry reached 239,050 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added 390,314 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [2]. - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 24.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, and the second quarter growth accelerated to 5.4% [4]. Consumer Trends - Service consumption accounted for an increasing share, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% and goods retail sales by 5.1% [4]. - Upgrading consumption trends were noted, with sports goods retail sales increasing by 22.2% and jewelry retail sales by 11.3% [4]. - New consumption models and trends, such as "self-indulgent consumption" and personalized consumption, are emerging [4]. Future Outlook - The positive consumption trend is expected to continue into the second half of the year, supported by ongoing consumption policies and subsidies [5]. - The expansion of visa-free policies is boosting domestic consumption, with significant increases in foreign visitors during holidays [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted China's retail sector in the first half of the year, with May retail data showing unexpected growth, particularly in home appliances [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - In May, China's total retail sales reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances grew by over 50% year-on-year in May, indicating strong consumer demand driven by the trade-in policy [1][2]. - The trade-in policy has been identified as a key driver of consumption growth, with specific categories like home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture showing significant increases of 53.0%, 33.0%, and 25.6% respectively [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The economic outlook for the next few months remains positive, supported by the release of prior export orders and the ongoing impact of the trade-in policy on consumption [6]. - Recommendations for stimulating consumption growth include enhancing wealth and income through policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, as well as reforming social security and welfare systems [2][6]. - The need to create new consumption scenarios is emphasized, with examples like the Jiangsu province's city football league driving local economic activity in tourism, dining, and accommodation [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - China's manufacturing sector has shown significant advantages, with over 30% global market share and rapid advancements in key areas such as shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [4]. - The domestic innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing growth due to supportive policies and increased R&D investment, indicating a robust environment for technological advancement [4]. Group 4: International Market Competitiveness - Chinese companies that have survived intense domestic competition are demonstrating strong capabilities in international markets, reflecting their competitive strength [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 经济仍需政策呵护——5月宏观月度观 察 报告摘要 海外宏观：关税冲击下发达国家展现相对韧性。5 月份是美国"对等关税"冲 击下的第二个月份。全球经济虽然放缓，但下滑幅度不算大。发达国家和新兴 经济体出现明显分化。在关税冲击下，发达国家经济景气度展现出较强韧性， 我们认为这是由于发达国家的内需较强，抵抗外部冲击的能力更强。新兴经济 体制造业 PMI 指数则快速下滑，我们认为新兴市场对于全球贸易的依赖度更 高，所以受到美国关税政策的冲击更大。关税对海外通胀影响尚不明显。5 月 美国通胀保持平稳，欧元区通胀持续下行。发达国家的通胀数据走势表明关税 战对于通胀的影响低于最初市场的预期。但其中一个重要原因是美国对外的 "额外关税"有 90 天的豁免期。这期间有较多的贸易抢跑及提前备货，平抑 了通胀的短期波动。我们认为未来海外通胀仍存在较大的上行风险。 国内宏观：经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速增长，但持续性存疑。5 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，是本月经济最大的亮点。我们认为 5 月消费高速 增长的主要动力有两点：一是电商"618"促销活动提前至 5 月 13 ...