Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices rose collectively for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Nasdaq up 0.65%, the Dow Jones up 0.61%, and the S&P 500 up 0.54% [2] - The S&P 500 index achieved its largest weekly gain in five months, marking a seven-month streak of increases [2] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot silver and LME copper prices reached record highs, with spot silver rising 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce and COMEX silver futures for March up 6.49% to $57.085 per ounce [2] - London copper prices increased by 2.5%, reaching approximately $11,210 per ton [2] Group 3: Oil Market - International oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, with WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $58.55 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.8% to $62.38 per barrel [5] - Traders are monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and assessing the impact of geopolitical situations on market supply [5] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market remains under discussion, with expectations of the Jiangxia lithium mine's resumption already priced in [7] - The lithium carbonate futures market showed a low opening and high closing trend, with the LC2605 contract settling at 96,420 yuan per ton, down 0.62% [7] - Analysts suggest that the resumption of the Jiangxia lithium mine will not significantly impact next year's supply-demand balance, as the market is more focused on demand-driven trading logic [7][8] Group 5: Inventory and Demand Trends - Current long-term demand growth for lithium carbonate is considered stable, despite seasonal production cuts in lithium extraction from salt lakes [8] - Weekly inventory data indicates a decrease of 2,452 tons, with total lithium carbonate inventory at 116,000 tons as of November 28 [8] - Expectations for December indicate a potential shift from inventory depletion to accumulation, with a forecasted decrease of around 12,000 tons in November [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is entering a demand verification phase, with a focus on the realization of demand expectations for next year [10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor the timing of the Jiangxia lithium mine's resumption and the production levels of lithium carbonate, along with overseas mining and South American salt lake export data [10]

11月28日，中国证监会国际合作司发布《关于云南金浔资源股份有限公司境外发行上市备案通知书》。金浔股份拟发行不超过42,280,400股境外上市普通股 并在香港联合交易所上市。 招股书显示，金浔股份是优质阴极铜的领先制造商，根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，截至2024年12月31日，按在刚果(金)及赞比亚的产量计， 公司在中国阴极 铜生产商中排名第五，并为两个司法权区中唯一排名前五大的中国公 司。具体而言，公司于2024年在刚果(金)及赞比亚分别生产约16,000吨及5,000吨阴极 铜。在中国的民营企业中，按2024年的产量计，公司于刚果(金)排名第三，并于赞比亚排名第一。 ...

铜月报（2025 年11月） 2025-11-28 中航期货 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 目录 02 行情回顾 01 后市研判 03 宏观面 04 基本面 | 理 | 件， | 撑， | 有 | 电、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 事 | 支 | 少 | 家 | 断 | 存 | 至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 中 | 方 | " | 面， | 营 | 下 | 到 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 方 | 运 | 价 | 息 | 求 | 发 | 降 | 铜 | | | | | | | | | ...

现货市场，据铜冠金源期货介绍，周四上海市场驰宏铅17000-17060元/吨，对沪铅2512合约升水0-50元/ 吨。 11月28日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪铅期货盘面表现偏强，主力合约小幅收涨 1.09%，报17090.00元/吨。 展望后市，西南期货表示，铅精矿供应偏紧，副产品收益支撑原生铅企业生产。北方部分地区管制严 格，影响废电瓶市场流通量，再生铅产量增长缓慢。储能蓄电池订单旺盛，汽车蓄电池替换需求回暖， 但电动自行车蓄电池需求由旺转淡，且经销商库存偏高。上周，电解铅社会库存增加2800吨。行情将围 绕供应端的扰动与需求端的韧性展开博弈，或呈现宽幅震荡格局。 基本面上，南华期货（603093）指出，国内冶炼端增减不一，原生铅原料问题暂未解决，TC继续走 弱。再生铅河北区域性偏紧，且再生铅冶炼利润再次走弱，开工意愿下降，目前再生铅成品库存处历史 低位。 需求方面，广州期货分析称，SMM铅蓄电池厂周度开工率持平于70.56%，近日铅市终端需求表现平 稳，铅蓄电池厂逢低接货，现货成交氛围略好转。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, base metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share markets had mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The four major index futures contracts declined, and the basis discount was repaired. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and suggest a wait - and - see approach, with a possible light - position short - put option strategy [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures mostly declined. The market sentiment is weak in the short - term, but there may be a rebound if the central bank's bond - buying scale exceeds expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 2603 contract cash - and - carry strategy [5][8]. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are analyzed. The long - term bull market in precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as central bank purchases and increased allocation of financial - attribute commodities. Short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by factors like Fed officials' divergence and economic data. Specific strategies are provided for each metal, such as holding silver long - positions and a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [9][11][12]. Commodity Futures Base Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - biased in the short - term, with 12 - month interest rate cut expectations and improving downstream demand. The mid - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports a rising price bottom [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a bottom - range oscillation. The supply shows signs of contraction, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. The price is expected to remain in the 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton range [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, with a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. The overseas supply risk and domestic weak demand are in a stand - off [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The cost is supportive, and the demand shows resilience, but high prices still suppress overall procurement [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the demand shows structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the squeeze risk eases slightly [24][27]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand in the South China region shows resilience [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The low - valuation and production cuts drive a small - scale recovery, but the overall upward drive is limited [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost support weakens, and the supply pressure remains high, with weak demand in the off - season [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market may have increased divergence, with a current situation of strong supply and demand and social inventory reduction [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The spot price stabilizes, while the silicon wafer and cell prices continue to fall [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range. The supply decreases, and the demand is not optimistic, with inventory accumulation pressure [44][45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to have a central - downward movement in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - rebar short - iron ore arbitrage [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to run weakly in the short - term. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is difficult to have an independent unilateral market without new macro - drivers [50][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand for replenishment weakens [53][57]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply increases, the demand weakens, and the inventory is moderately increasing [58][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate. There is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [60][62]. - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains, and it is necessary to pay attention to the logic of production capacity reduction [63].

Market Overview - A-shares opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.11% and the ChiNext Index down 0.04% [1] - The total trading volume in the Wande All A collection auction was only 12.9 billion, marking a new low for the stage [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened higher but turned negative, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.33% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.2% [1][2] Sector Performance - OCS concept stocks mostly retreated, while sectors like deep-sea technology, gold, and superconductors performed well [1] - Large technology stocks in Hong Kong saw minor increases, with Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com all rising less than 0.9% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its upward trend, with Chalco International rising by 6% [1] Bond Market - Government bond futures opened higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.11% and the 10-year main contract up 0.02% [2][3] Currency Exchange - The RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0789, down 10 points from the previous day [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. has approved an increase in the hedging business margin limit for 2025 from 600 million to 700 million yuan, reflecting the company's proactive approach to managing market price volatility and indicating a trend towards more sophisticated risk management in the domestic non-ferrous metal industry [1][3][8] Summary by Sections Hedging Limit Increase: A Proactive Measure Against Market Volatility - The increase in the hedging limit aims to mitigate price volatility risks associated with raw materials and product inventories in the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing business, ensuring stable operational performance [3] - In the first half of 2025, Zinc Industry reported significant fluctuations in zinc and copper prices, which pressured the smelting segment's profitability. However, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth, with net profit rising by 99.07% year-on-year, highlighting the effectiveness of risk management tools [3][8] Industry Overview: Hedging Becoming a "Must-Have" for Listed Companies - The increase in hedging limits by Zinc Industry is part of a broader trend among listed companies, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, to strengthen risk management practices. Since 2025, many companies have announced hedging measures in response to increased market volatility [5] - Statistics show that at least 1,583 A-share listed companies in the real economy have issued hedging announcements this year, surpassing the total of 1,503 for all of 2024, marking a historical high [5] Upgrade Trend: Diversification of Tools and Scope - Zinc Industry's announcement indicates a clear upgrade in risk management strategies, expanding from traditional commodity price risks to include foreign exchange risks and exploring a variety of tools beyond just futures [7] - The trend of tool diversification is evident, with some non-ferrous metal companies beginning to use combination strategies like "futures + options." Zinc Industry has implemented a dual mechanism of "spot lock + futures hedging" to address exchange rate volatility [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27 marks a significant addition to the green energy metal sector, following the introduction of other commodities like industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, indicating a growing focus on supporting the green economy [1][4]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, platinum futures recorded a trading volume of 66,700 contracts, with an open interest of 7,600 contracts and a transaction value of 29.231 billion yuan. Palladium futures had a trading volume of 34,200 contracts, an open interest of 2,700 contracts, and a transaction value of 13.049 billion yuan, reflecting a stable market entry [1][9]. - The main platinum contract opened at 441 yuan/gram and closed at 430.3 yuan/gram, up 6.25% from the listing benchmark price of 405 yuan/gram. The main palladium contract opened at 377 yuan/gram and closed at 370.6 yuan/gram, up 1.53% from the listing benchmark price of 365 yuan/gram [5][6]. Industry Impact - Platinum and palladium are critical materials in automotive emissions control, wind energy development, and hydrogen energy, with applications in green development accounting for approximately 60% and 80% respectively [4][7]. - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for upstream and downstream enterprises in the platinum group metal industry, stabilize operations, and improve market efficiency [3][4]. Strategic Collaboration - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strengthen its strategic cooperation with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to support the development of futures derivatives for the green industry [3]. - Companies like Jinchuan Group and Yunnan Precious Metals Group are actively participating in the futures market, utilizing these tools for better risk management and operational efficiency [8][10][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the futures market will provide a transparent and authoritative pricing mechanism, enhancing the price discovery function and increasing China's influence in the global platinum and palladium markets [7][8]. - The futures contracts are expected to facilitate a more standardized and efficient operation within the industry, promoting a shift towards a more resilient and efficient supply chain [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Hechi Branch is actively supporting the development of the key metals industry in Guangxi by providing financial assistance to a local non-ferrous metal group, thereby facilitating the construction of the Nandan Comprehensive Experimental Zone [1][2]. - ICBC Hechi Branch, in collaboration with its branches in Liuzhou and Nanning, successfully issued a 300 million yuan (approximately 42.5 million USD) working capital loan to a non-ferrous metal group, addressing the urgent funding needs for raw material reserves, production operations, and logistics [2][3]. - The non-ferrous metal group is leveraging its abundant resources of tin, antimony, and indium to transform into a leading enterprise in Guangxi's non-ferrous metal industry chain, focusing on value-added transformation in response to national policy opportunities [2][3]. Group 2 - ICBC Hechi Branch plans to continue enhancing its comprehensive financial services, focusing on the diverse needs of upstream and downstream enterprises in the key metals industry, including mergers and acquisitions, technological upgrades, and green transformation [3]. - The bank aims to optimize service processes and increase credit resource allocation to empower the high-quality development of the key metals industry, contributing to the establishment of the Nandan Comprehensive Experimental Zone and the upgrade of Hechi City into a "strategic highland for key metals" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**: