刚刚，伊朗外长透露拒绝美方要求原因。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月11日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在被问及与美国重启谈判及其条件时表示，伊 朗对美国的立场始终明确，"如果他们准备在平等的基础上，为实现共同利益、基于相互尊重进行谈 判，并且不把谈判与'命令'混为一谈，愿意开展公平、平衡的对话，我们也会准备好进行这样的谈 判"。 阿拉格齐重申，双方谈判议题仅限于核问题，这是伊朗一贯立场。他指出，由于在纽约联合国大会期间 发生的事件及其后续发展，伊朗目前"没有看到重新开启谈判的基础" 。阿拉格齐透露，今年纽约联合 国大会举行期间双方确实曾进行接触，伊朗曾表示愿就相关问题进行磋商。但美方立场是，如果伊朗交 出所有60%丰度的浓缩铀，他们只会将"快速恢复制裁"机制推迟六个月。阿拉格齐称，这是"过分、完 全不合理、绝对不可接受的立场"，伊朗已明确表达拒绝，因此这次接触未能取得成果。 阿拉格齐表示，伊朗曾告知斡旋方，"没有理性的人会接受这种要求"。并称如果有关国家愿意永久放 弃"快速恢复制裁"机制，让安理会第2231号决议在10月18日按期终止，并将伊朗议题从安理会议程中彻 底删除，那么相关请求才值得考虑。"但美国从未接受这一点 ...

从电价来看，煤炭价格反弹推高了铝企用电成本，当月电解铝行业综合含税用电价格为0.388元/千瓦时，环比上涨0.006元/千瓦时。 从阳极 价格来看，受原料成本增加以及出口需求良好等因素拉动，9月份预焙阳极价格触底回升，月均价回归5000元/吨以上。 在成本下降的同时，电解铝价格小幅上涨，利润上行。9月份沪铝连续合约均价达到20789元/吨，环比上涨99元/吨。测算当月平均利润为 4527元/吨(由于各地区企业所得税税率不同，故没有剔除增值税和所得税)，环比增加202元/吨，销售利润率达到21.8%，维持全行业盈利。 智通财经APP获悉，安泰科发文称，2025年9月中国电解铝行业呈现"成本下降，利润增长"的态势。根据安泰科测算，当月电解铝加权平均 完全成本(含税)为16262元/吨，环比下降103元/吨或0.6%；同比下降1080元/吨或6.2%。尽管本月电力、阳极成本均有不同程度上涨，但氧化 铝价格下跌带来的成本减量更显著，推动总成本呈现下降态势。安泰科氧化铝现货报价显示，9月份原材料采购期内，氧化铝现货平均价格 为3138元/吨，环比下跌134元/吨或4.1%。 图 中国电解铝成本与利润 数据来源：安泰科 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）中国商务部连发四则公告，事关稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制。2） 美国政府关门难解：参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要 动"大招"。3）美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。4）贝森特已面完 11 名美联储主席候选人，4 个人最有希望。美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎， 华尔街日报：凸显美联储内部分歧。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：支持今年进一步降息，并 不认为经济处于衰退边缘。5）美国财长贝森特：赤字比降至 5 开头，希望几年后降至 3 开头。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍 ...

研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 据ILZSG,2025年7月全球锌精矿产量为107.62万吨，同比增加10.28%。 2025年锌矿国际长协TC价确定为80美元/吨，创历史最低，同比上一年腰斩，海外高成本炼厂可能会面临运营压力。尽管如 此，但应注意2024年的长单tc是被严重高估的，从现货tc的变化来看，锌矿供给边际宽松的趋势没有改变。 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 宏观：10月9日讯，美联储一些高级官员上月更倾向于维持利率不变，这凸显了决策者们的担忧：高企的通胀仍对美国经济构成威胁。尽管 美联储9月降息25个基点，但美联储会议纪要显示，"少数"FOMC成员本来会支持维持利率不变，因为通胀有可能持续高于目标。会议纪要 指出，今年通胀率的上升使得实现2%目标的进展"陷入停滞"，并补充称，少数成员"担心如果通胀不能及时回到目标水平，长期通胀预期 可能会上升"。 基本面：在伦锌带动下，沪锌近期小幅上涨，宏观情绪乐观及海外持续去库是主要驱动。短期基本面层面，国产矿冶炼利润优于 ...

核心观点 海外避险情绪高涨，关注内盘区间上沿压力 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 宏观：美国两党博弈剧烈，重要经济数据暂停发布，暂未看到缓和迹象，同时日本政坛也将出现较大调整，整体来看不确定性较大，导致美元指数 和贵金属、金属价格同步偏强运行。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：9月，在产产能环比增加350万吨，开工率环比抬升；矿石端，国内到港量周度环比减少，几内亚发运量环比减少，正常区间 进口： 2025年8月中国氧化铝净出口8.56万吨，环比小幅减少，连续17个月净出口；进口利润周度环比收敛 需求：电解铝在产产能小幅增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝生产完全成本为2854.3元，盈利196.7元/吨，成本微幅增加，利润大幅减少；烧碱价格3750元/吨，周度环比无变化 仓单继续大幅增加，周产和周度库存维持累库，产量维持过剩，盘面高位回落；现货价格下滑，但仍升水于盘面，随着逐步趋于宽松，预计现 货价格继续向下收敛；期限结构 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the A-share market showed a positive start, but there were also signs of a pullback after the rally. The technology sector remained active, and it is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [2][4]. - The bond market started well after the holiday, but the sentiment may be suppressed by the risk appetite. The short-term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. - Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy for precious metals in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - The shipping index of European routes showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong due to supply shortages, while aluminum oxide prices are expected to be weak due to supply surpluses [14][20]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile, nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [31][36][40]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contracts of both at low prices [51][54]. - The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. - The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: After the holiday, A - share major indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32%, and the cyclical sectors performed strongly, while the consumer sectors declined [2]. - Futures situation: The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis spreads of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly [3]. - News: Domestic consumption increased during the holiday, and overseas, the Fed showed a willingness to cut interest rates [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 at the strike price of around 6800 when the price pulls back [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were relatively loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Geopolitical risks eased, and precious metals prices first rose and then fell. Silver hit a new high due to supply shortages [7][9]. - Future outlook: In the fourth quarter, precious metals prices are expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious and low - buying strategy [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index of European Routes - Spot quotation: The freight rates of different shipping companies are provided [11]. - Index situation: The shipping index of European routes declined, and the freight rates of different routes also decreased [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container capacity increased, and the demand in different regions varied [11]. - Logic: The futures market was weakly volatile, and the price increase of shipping companies will affect the main contract price [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper rose, but the downstream procurement willingness was weak [12]. - Macro: The US government was shut down, and the market expected the Fed to implement monetary easing [13]. - Supply: The supply of copper mines was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline [14]. - Demand: The demand for copper was expected to slow down marginally, but it still had strong resilience [15]. - Inventory: The inventories of LME, COMEX, and domestic social copper increased [16]. - Logic: Weak US dollars and supply shortages drove the copper price up [17]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions, and pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The price of aluminum oxide declined, and the overall trading sentiment was weak [17]. - Supply: The domestic and overseas supply of aluminum oxide increased, and the demand was weak [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum oxide was high, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [19]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely, and the short - term price was under pressure [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3050 [20]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum rose, but the high price suppressed the procurement willingness [21]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly [21]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum showed structural characteristics, and the high price suppressed the orders of small and medium - sized enterprises [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased after the holiday [22]. - Logic: Macro factors supported the aluminum price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20700 - 21300 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy rose [25]. - Supply: The supply of recycled aluminum was tight, and the开工 rate was affected [25]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy recovered moderately, but the terminal demand was weak [25]. - Inventory: The inventory of aluminum alloy continued to increase [26]. - Logic: The futures price rose with the aluminum price, and the cost supported the price [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20200 - 20800. Consider arbitrage if the price difference is over 500 [27][28]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc rose, and the trading was light [28]. - Supply: The supply of zinc was loose, and the production of zinc ingots increased [29]. - Demand: The demand for zinc was weak, and the开工 rate of primary processing industries declined [30]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased, and the LME inventory increased [31]. - Logic: Low inventory and weak US dollars supported the zinc price, and it is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21800 - 22800 [31]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin rose significantly, but the trading was light [31]. - Supply: The supply of tin was affected by Indonesia, and the import volume decreased [32]. - Demand: The demand for tin was weak, and the traditional consumption areas were sluggish [33]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: Supply disruptions and the strength of the semiconductor sector drove the tin price up, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [34]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel rose [35]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [35]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in different sectors varied, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [35]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory of nickel was high, and the domestic social inventory was stable [35]. - Logic: Macro factors and policy expectations supported the nickel price, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [36]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 120000 - 126000 [36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel rose slightly [37]. - Raw materials: The price of raw materials was firm, and the cost supported the price [37]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel was expected to increase, and the supply pressure existed [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel decreased slowly [38]. - Logic: The futures price rose slightly, and the downstream demand did not meet expectations [39]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the trading was light [40]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased, and the supply was affected by new projects [41]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was stable and optimistic, but the marginal increase needed to be tracked [41]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in all links [42]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated, and the supply and demand were in a tight balance [43]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 - 75,000 [43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable during the holiday and rebounded slightly after the holiday [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of steel had support, and the profit declined [44]. - Supply: The production of steel decreased slightly during the holiday, and the overall production was high [45]. - Demand: The demand for steel showed seasonal improvement, and the export volume was high [45]. - Inventory: The inventory of steel increased during the holiday and is expected to decrease seasonally [45]. - View: Steel prices are expected to be stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils [45]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of iron ore rose [46]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures rose, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [46]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [46]. - Demand: The demand for iron ore decreased slightly [46]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume increased [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore increased, and the daily dredging volume decreased [47]. - View: Iron ore prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [47][48]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot price declined slightly [49]. - Supply: The production of coking coal decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [50]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [50]. - View: Coking coal prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [51]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures rebounded, and the spot price of the factory was stable while the port price declined [54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative [53]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [53]. - Demand: The demand for coke decreased slightly [53]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke decreased [53]. - View: Coke prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of domestic meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [55]. - Fundamental news: The export sales report of US soybeans was postponed, and the export of Brazilian soybeans was expected to increase [55][56]. - Market outlook: The price of domestic meal is suppressed by supply pressure, and the M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [57]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The price of live pigs declined [58]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens declined [58]. - Market outlook: The price of live pigs is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the futures at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on relevant contracts [59].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年10月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价下跌，布伦特12合约跌1.29%。今日凌晨以色列内阁批准加沙第一阶段停火协议，持 续2年的巴以冲突获得重大突破,并为总体的中东地缘风险带来缓和契机。供需方面四季度及明年一 季度盈余压力的边际放大仍是市场交易主题，关注加沙停火协议的持续性及对俄鸟局势的影响。 【贵金属】 国际金价突破4000美元/盎司关口后，昨日白银价格一度突破50美元/盎司刷新历史新高，此后双双 回落。贵金属中长期上行逻辑未改，但随着特朗普宣布以哈签署第一阶段和平协议,短期金价涨势 放缓,白银波动加剧,需警惕资金获利了结带来调整,历史高位保持谨慎。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜涨至1.1万美元转跌，沪铜跟涨到8.8万上方，关注资金变动。美国政府仍停摆，联储对年 内降息次数暂有分歧，贵金属回调。昨日SMM现铜报85740元，沪粤升水15、30元/吨，节中SMM七地 库存流入1.8万吨至16.63万吨，以海内外全球显性库存看，目前处在年中较高水平。资金驱动下， 内外铜市有再创新高的潜力,但认为较难守住涨势,后市回到震荡状态的概率大,下方支撑位提高 ...

国庆假期期间，受海外流动性宽松预期提振，有色金属全面飘红，铜价再创阶段新高。受外盘和相关品 种带动，叠加近期印尼严打非法采矿加剧供应担忧，节后首日国内沪锡大幅走高，主力合约收涨 2.99%，报287090元/吨，刷新半年高位。成交量虽然较节前有显著下滑，但持仓量大幅提升，主力 sn2511合约排名前20持仓龙虎榜上，多头合计加仓4303手，空头增仓3994手，多空双方势均力敌。 数据来源：文华财经 国泰期货席位加空583手，同时加多188手，净多单减少395手。 瑞达期货席位多空均有增持，加空475手，高于多单增加幅度，净空持仓增加231手。 整体来看，近期LME库存再度回落且0-3结构频繁变动，流动性担忧仍有隐患，叠加原料供应维持偏紧 格局，刺激锡价上涨。另一方面，印尼严厉打击非法采矿引发市场担忧情绪，不过，此次严打旨在加强 对本国锡产业管控，关停的非法矿点多为小型矿企，印尼主要的锡冶炼企业大多拥有正规的自有矿源或 稳定的合法供应渠道，因此其精锡的正式生产和出口预计不会受到严重冲击。10月初国内云锡将结束检 修恢复生产，大部分冶炼厂在假期内保持正常生产，同时缅甸矿运输也逐渐恢复，整体供应有望小幅增 加。需求 ...

龙虎榜机构热股 今天机构龙虎榜上榜38只个股，净买入19只，净卖出19只。当日机构买入最多的个股前三位是：赣锋锂 业（5.21亿）、天际股份（4.42亿）、灿芯股份（3日4.09亿）。 赣锋锂业 龙虎榜显示，今日1家机构净买入5.21亿。 赣锋锂业在9月18日互动平台中表示，公司500Wh/kg级固态电池已小批量量产，循环寿命突破800次， 产品配套国际车企及eVTOL企业。另外9月26日公告，控股子公司赣锋锂电拟引入投资人增资不超25亿 元，增资价3元/1元注册资本，资金将强化锂生态上下游一体化布局。 龙虎榜知名游资 个股龙虎榜 二、有色 北京时间10月8日，国际现货黄金价格盘中一度升破4000美元/盎司，为历史首次。前一日，国际期货黄 金价格盘中冲上4000美元/盎司关口。 10月9日，沪铜期货主力合约大涨超4%。 江西铜业 一、可控核聚变 据央视新闻报道，10月1日，中国核聚变装置BEST建设取得关键突破，重达400余吨的底座成功安装就 位，将用来承载总重约6700吨的BEST主机，标志着这一大国重器主机全面开建。未来，该装置在国际 上将首次验证演示核聚变发电，有望在2030年通过核聚变点亮第一盏灯。 ...

从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，银华基金旗下1只基金重仓腾远钴业。银华创业板两年定期开放混合（161838）二季度增持 2.4万股，持有股数29.38万股，占基金净值比例为5.87%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚 取约112.84万元。连续3天上涨期间浮盈赚取273.57万元。 10月9日，腾远钴业涨5.04%，截至发稿，报79.96元/股，成交10.50亿元，换手率4.63%，总市值235.66 亿元。腾远钴业股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅13.94%。 资料显示，赣州腾远钴业新材料股份有限公司位于江西省赣州市赣县区赣州高新技术产业开发区稀金大 道9号，成立日期2004年3月26日，上市日期2022年3月17日，公司主营业务涉及危险化学品生产、肥料 生产与销售,常用有色金属冶炼,基础化学原料制造,新能源汽车废旧动力蓄电池回收及梯次利用,再生资源 回收,石灰和石膏制造与销售,石墨及碳素制品制造与销售,新型建筑材料制造(不含危险化学品),轻质建筑 材料制造与销售,建筑材料销售,货物进出口,技术进出口,信息咨询服务。主营业务收入构成为：钴产品 47.56%，铜产品44.39%，其他8.05%。 银华 ...