—2025 年 11 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 ❑ 风险提示：国内政策效果不及预期。 点评报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回升趋势不改 相关报告 1、《新质生产力相关产品出口 增速表现强劲—2025 年 11 月进 出口数据点评》2025-12-09 2、《明年政策积极程度将有所 变化—中央政治局会议解读》 2025-12-08 3、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏 观 经 济 预 测 报 告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 赵兴举 研究助理 zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：11 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，同比+0.7%，CPI 同比大幅上涨主要由食品项贡 献，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月-0.54%转为+0.04%。结构上来看，1）寒潮、 降雨等天气因素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成 本增加，共同推动 11 月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加去年低基数因素，价格同 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market sentiment and style switching signals to identify investment opportunities [1] - It highlights the current market condition of index consolidation with reduced trading volume as the year-end approaches [1] - The article raises questions about the sustainability of investment opportunities in the anti-flu concept and the coal sector, particularly in the context of winter heating demand [1]

Market Overview - On December 2, the A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.69% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1,593.43 billion yuan, a decrease of about 280.51 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Out of the total stocks, 1,544 rose while 3,740 fell, with 54 hitting the daily limit up and 7 hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included Fujian state-owned assets, forestry, prepared dishes, coal mining, airports, and light manufacturing [1] - Conversely, sectors that saw declines included non-ferrous metals, antimony, MLCC, lithium mining, energy metals, precious metals, and bioproducts [1] Commodity Futures - In the domestic commodity futures market, there were mixed results, with BR rubber rising by approximately 4%, and silver and pulp increasing by over 2% [1] - Other commodities such as coking coal and soda ash saw increases of over 1%, while asphalt and platinum fell by more than 2% [1] Shanxi Sector Analysis - In the Shanxi sector on December 2, there were 41 stocks, with 12 rising and 27 falling, indicating a significant number of declines [2] - Among the rising stocks, Antai Group led with a peak increase of 9.96%, while Taiyuan Iron & Steel rose by 7.06% [2] - Other notable gainers included Huayang Co. with a 3.57% increase, Jinbo Biological with a 2.42% increase, and Yongtai Energy with a 1.23% increase [2] - The leading decliner was Dongjie Intelligent, which fell by 3.62%, followed by Beifang Copper, Pailin Biological, Keda Automation, and Kuaijingtong with respective declines of 2.69%, 2.32%, 2.01%, and 1.72% [2]

Market Overview - On November 18, the three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The North Stock 50 fell by 2.92% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1,926.068 billion yuan, an increase of about 15.277 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 1,278 stocks rose while 4,106 stocks fell, with 62 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 36 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that performed well included large model beans, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, cultural media, publishing, and computer industries [1] - Sectors that saw declines included coal, Fujian state-owned assets, forestry, coal mining, steel, and precious metals [1] Regional Performance - The Shanxi region showed weak overall performance on November 18, with an index decline of 2.8%, but trading volume increased to 16.535 billion yuan, higher than the average of 15.251 billion yuan over the past five days [1] - In the Shanxi region, only 2 stocks showed an upward trend, with Kexin Development up 1.85% and Cross-Border Communication up 0.82% [1] Individual Stock Performance - In the Shanxi region, 6 stocks experienced declines of over 5%, with China New Energy leading the drop at 9.60%, followed by Antai Group at 9.58%, Shanxi Coking Coal at 6.32%, Lu Hua Technology at 5.65%, Lu'an Environmental Energy at 5.60%, and Jinkong Coal at 5.23% [1] - Antai Group had previously seen a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of over 50%, reaching 57.50%, but reversed its trend on the 18th, nearing the daily limit down [2]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

证券代码：600157 证券简称：永泰能源 公告编号：临 2025－054 永泰能源集团股份有限公司 2025年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》的 相关规定和要求，为方便投资者了解公司生产经营情况，现将公司 2025 年第三 季度主要经营数据公告如下： 1 项 目 发电量（亿千瓦时） 上网电量（亿千瓦时） 2025 年 第 3 季度 同比 增减（%） 2025 年 1－3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 2025 年 第 3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 2025 年 1－3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 一、河南省 61.7630 22.05 135.8017 2.87 58.3991 22.40 127.8122 2.97 1．燃煤： 61.6560 22.10 135.5132 2.88 58.2948 22.46 127.5314 2.98 郑州裕中能源有限 责任公司 41.3910 24.34 93.1510 3.8 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% year-on-year, up from 0.9% previously[2] - In September, the monthly revenue of industrial enterprises improved by approximately 3.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The profit growth rate for September rose by 1.2 percentage points to 21.6%, marking two consecutive months of high growth[3] Group 2: Profit Structure and Contributions - The contributions to September's profit growth were +7.0% from industrial value added, -2.6% from PPI, and +15.2% from profit margin year-on-year[3] - In September, the cost, expenses, investment income, and profit per 100 yuan of revenue were 85.4, 8.3, -0.8, and 5.5 yuan respectively, with significant contributions from reduced expenses[3] - The profit margin structure showed a notable decrease in expense rates, contributing positively to overall profitability[12] Group 3: Inventory and Economic Outlook - In September, nominal inventory increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, indicating the first shift to replenishing inventory this year[5] - The report anticipates increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, despite recent fiscal policy measures aimed at boosting investment[5] - The ongoing improvement in the "anti-involution" industries has led to a more significant profit recovery compared to non-anti-involution sectors, with a 3.9 percentage point improvement in cumulative profit year-on-year for anti-involution industries[4]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to positively impact the Producer Price Index (PPI) by increasing capacity utilization in key industries, particularly in raw materials like coal and chemicals, while the automotive sector shows a more muted response [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of "Anti-Involution" on PPI - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in PPI, with a recorded year-on-year change of -2.3% in September 2025, narrowing the decline by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Key industries affected by the "anti-involution" include chemicals, coal mining, steel, non-metallic minerals, electrical machinery (photovoltaics), and automobiles, with most industries operating at historically low capacity utilization levels as of Q3 2025 [3][6]. - The estimated impact of increasing capacity utilization to historical percentiles shows that reaching 50% could raise PPI by 1.3 percentage points, while 75% could increase it by 1.9 percentage points, with the former scenario being more realistic given current demand conditions [8][9]. Group 2: Monitoring PPI Changes - To monitor the effects of "anti-involution" on PPI, high-frequency price data from key industries are used to fit PPI changes, allowing for real-time tracking of price movements [13][22]. - As of October 2023, most industrial prices in key sectors have declined compared to the previous month, with an overall estimated drag on PPI of 0.1 percentage points due to this price drop [22][24]. - Specific price changes in October include a decrease in PPI for black processing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, while coal and photovoltaic prices have shown slight increases [22][24].

Core Points - The A-share market indices collectively rose on October 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3950.31 points, up 0.71% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.02%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.57% [3] Market Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3950.31 points, up 27.90 points (0.71%), year-to-date increase of 17.86% [4] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13289.18 points, up 263.74 points (2.02%), year-to-date increase of 27.60% [4] - ChiNext Index: 1462.22 points, up 60.97 points (4.35%), year-to-date increase of 47.86% [4] - North China 50 Index: 1472.08 points, up 16.71 points (1.15%), year-to-date increase of 41.84% [4] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 19742.09 billion yuan, an increase of about 3303 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - Sectors with notable gains included memory chips, AMD, HBM, semiconductors, electronic chemicals, and electronics [5] - Sectors with significant declines included Shenzhen state-owned assets, coal, property, coal mining and selection, real estate, and oil and petrochemicals [5]

Group 1 - A-shares saw 73 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 5 stocks hitting the limit down during the first half of the trading day on October 20 [1] - The forestry sector was active, with Pingtan Development achieving two consecutive limit ups [1] - The CPO concept strengthened, with Cambridge Technology hitting the limit up [1] - The coal mining sector rose, with Dayou Energy achieving 6 limit ups in 7 days, Antai Group achieving 3 consecutive limit ups, and Yunmei Energy hitting the limit up [1] Group 2 - *ST Yuancheng experienced 6 consecutive limit downs [2] - *ST Yazhen faced 2 consecutive limit downs [2] - *ST Zhengping and Hunan Baiyin also hit the limit down [2]