热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周四WTI与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602以444.7元/桶收盘，上涨1.7元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和凝析油产量与2024年大致持平，约为5.16亿吨，即约1032万桶/日。诺瓦克 称，俄罗斯将继续以OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面 成效显著。荷兰银行ING认为，2026年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在OPEC+决定以快于预期的速度逐 步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈余量在2026年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 OPEC国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平衡表，预计到2026年将出现超过每日 200万桶的过剩。进入假期，油价预计延续震荡运行。 燃料油： 周四，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收涨0.61%，报2489元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收涨 0.33%，报3016元/吨。截至12月24日当周，富查伊拉燃料油库存录1068.1万桶，环比前一周减少224.7万 桶（17.38%）。从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构小幅 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.49 美元至 58.01 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 1.60 美元至 62.07 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 2.65%。SC2601 以 439.7 元/桶收盘，上涨 7.4 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.71%。海关统计数据显示，2025 年 11 月份，中国原 | | | | 油进口量为 5089.1 万吨，环比增加 5.2%，同比增加 4.9%；1-11 | | | | 月份，中国累计原油进口量为 5.22 亿吨，同比增 3.2%。从排名前 | | | | 三的进口来源国数量来看：进口俄罗斯原油 835.1 万吨，同比下 | | | | 降 3.4%；进口沙特阿拉伯原油 754.8 万吨，同比增加 8.4%；进口 | | | 原油 | 巴西原油 488.7 万吨，同比增加 31.5%。市场持续关注俄乌局势， | 震荡 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：转入震荡，等待明确驱动 | | 本周燃料油市场价格开始筑底，波动幅度有所下降。高硫方面，由于中东出口量维持高位，市场成交升贴水依然处于低位。同时，一月份船 | | --- | --- | | | 燃市场将逐步转入传 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing down $1.55 at $55.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.73% [2][13] - Brent February contract closed down $1.64 at $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][13] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2][13] - The market expected a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in crude oil inventory [2][13] - Geopolitical factors have not caused a significant supply shortage, and oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom amid increasing macro risks [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.5% to 2368 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.42% to 2909 yuan/ton [3][14] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore [3][14] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high-sulfur fuel oil cracking profits have declined, potentially boosting demand from Asian refineries [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.36% to 2894 yuan/ton [4][15] - Tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about future raw material shortages, keeping the market relatively firm [4][15] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows significant regional differences, with the North focusing on storage and the South on actual consumption [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15170 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12385 yuan/ton [5][16] - Weather improvements in overseas production areas have led to lower raw material inventories compared to previous years [5][16] - Limited demand support is expected, leading to wide fluctuations in rubber futures prices [5][16] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4668 yuan/ton, down 0.6%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 3.75% [6][17] - PX futures closed at 6744 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with spot prices at $827/ton [6][17] - Domestic supply pressures are expected to increase as new ethylene glycol plants come online, while some existing plants are facing losses [6][17] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2103 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $244-$248/ton [7][18] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in downstream MTO plants [7][18] - Overall, methanol prices are anticipated to remain under pressure [7][18] Polyolefins - Main PP prices in East China ranged from 6120-6350 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][19] - PE prices are reported at 7839 yuan/ton for HDPE and 8491 yuan/ton for LDPE [8][19] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with limited downside for futures prices [8][19] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for different grades ranging from 4350-4600 yuan/ton [9][20] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to some plants resuming operations, while demand is anticipated to slow down due to a decrease in real estate construction [9][20] - Overall, PVC prices are expected to trend towards a bottom [9][20] Urea - Urea futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 1630 yuan/ton [10][22] - The market is experiencing weak demand, with many regions showing a cautious purchasing sentiment [10][22] - Short-term market support is lacking, and there may be further price declines to reduce inventory [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm trend, with the January contract closing at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [11][23] - Supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is expected to remain weak due to cautious sentiment in downstream industries [11][23] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong but limited upward trend [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 946 yuan/ton [12][24] - The market is stable, with no significant changes in production lines, and demand remains cautious [12][24] - Short-term price trends are expected to continue fluctuating at the bottom [12][24]