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转自：新华财经 新华财经上海12月22日电 中信证券研报分析认为，推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开 始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。 从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因素。然而，部分行业在持 续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆，同时从成本收入分析来 看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视起来。此外，为抑制过 快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。 编辑：林郑宏 行业配置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化 驱动三条线索。基于2023年的国民经济投入产出表数据对211个细分行业进行了人民币升值背景下的成 本收入分析，受益于人民币升值的行业大概可以分为四类：1）上游资源品和原材料，包括：钢铁、有 色、石油石化（炼化）、基础化工（化肥、涂料、化纤、塑料等）、建材（耐火材料）、电子（半导体 材料）；2）内需消费品，主要包括：农林牧渔（饲料、植物油、糖）、轻工制造（造纸、纸制品）、 消费电子等；3）服务 ...

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,890.45 | 0.36 | | 深证成指 | | 13,140.21 | 0.66 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,568.18 | 0.34 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.80 | 0.35 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,169.55 | 0.97 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研 ...

推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,876.37 | 0.16 | 深证成指 | 13,053.97 | -1.29 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,552.79 | -0.59 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,410.53 | -0.69 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,100.84 | -0.5 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, with a focus on the stabilization of consumer demand and the implementation of policies to boost consumption in various sectors, including healthcare and tourism [5][7] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with various sectors such as consumer goods, finance, and automotive showing resilience, while others like real estate and energy are underperforming [8][10] - The report suggests that the A-share market is suitable for medium to long-term investment, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark [10][12] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,824.81, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,914.67, down 1.51% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.89 and 48.54, respectively, indicating a favorable investment environment for medium to long-term strategies [8][12] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [4] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the chemical industry, noting a slowdown in price declines for chemical products, with sulfur and phosphate fertilizers performing well [14][15] - The food and beverage sector saw a rebound in November, particularly in prepared foods and alcoholic beverages, although overall performance remains weak compared to market benchmarks [21][22] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth, with global sales increasing by 27.2% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related hardware [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as renewable energy, AI applications, and the chemical industry, particularly companies like Wanhua Chemical and Baofeng Energy [36][37] - In the food and beverage sector, investment opportunities are suggested in soft drinks, health products, and baked goods, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [24][22]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, with A-shares showing potential for upward movement supported by favorable policies and improved liquidity [8][10][11] - The focus on green finance and support for green factory construction is highlighted as a key area for investment opportunities [4][8] - The semiconductor industry is noted for its strong growth, driven by AI demand and increasing capital expenditures from major tech firms [28][29] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,889.35 with a slight increase of 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% to 13,258.33 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 15.91 and 48.81 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% to 26,643.39 [4] Financial News - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the importance of managing financial risks in local governments and real estate sectors, aiming to prevent financial crises [8] - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in RMB loans, totaling 15.36 trillion yuan, with social financing growth exceeding last year's total [8] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in price declines, with sulfur and phosphate fertilizers performing well [16][39] - The telecommunications sector showed resilience, with a 1.44% increase in the industry index, outperforming major indices [19] - The food and beverage sector is recovering, particularly in prepared foods and liquor, although overall performance remains weak [24][25] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as electric power, telecommunications, and chemicals for potential investment opportunities [10][19][39] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes to identify structural investment opportunities [10][11][39]

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the domestic economy, with A-share market performance expected to improve due to supportive policies and capital flow [4][7][14] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI demand, with significant capital expenditure from major cloud providers [24][25][27] - The chemical industry is entering a phase of recovery, with supply-demand dynamics improving and investment strategies focusing on specific sub-sectors [34][35] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,873.32, down 0.70%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,147.39, down 1.27% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.00 and 49.52, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [7][8] Industry Analysis - The chemical sector is witnessing a slowdown in price declines, with notable performance in sulfur and phosphate fertilizers, and an overall industry P/E ratio of 27.76, slightly below historical averages [15][16] - The telecommunications sector is benefiting from a rise in 5G users and increased telecom revenue, with a 10-month cumulative revenue of 14,670 billion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year [17][18] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a rebound, particularly in prepared foods and liquor, although overall performance remains weak compared to market benchmarks [21][22][23] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as renewable energy, AI applications, and specific chemical sub-sectors like organic silicon and phosphate chemicals [34][35] - Investment opportunities are identified in the semiconductor industry, particularly in companies involved in AI chip production and telecommunications equipment [20][24][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes to identify potential investment opportunities across various sectors [7][14][30]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 according to the IMF, reflecting a moderate recovery phase [5][8] - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of consolidation with potential upward movement supported by favorable policies and improved liquidity [9][12] - The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, driven by strong demand for AI computing hardware and significant capital investments from major tech companies [19][30] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,900.50 with a slight decline of 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.29% to 13,316.42 [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.04 and 49.54 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [12] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector saw a rebound in November 2025, particularly in pre-packaged foods and alcoholic beverages, although overall performance remains weak with a cumulative decline of 0.16% from January to November [14][15] - The semiconductor industry experienced a 5.10% decline in November, but year-to-date performance remains strong with a 38.02% increase [19] - The electric power and utilities sector showed resilience, with a 10.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in October 2025, driven by the charging and swapping service industry [23][24] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as commercial retail, precious metals, and automotive for short-term investment opportunities [12][18] - In the semiconductor space, companies involved in AI chip production and infrastructure are recommended due to the ongoing demand and technological advancements [19][30] - The food and beverage sector is advised to consider investments in soft drinks, health products, and baked goods, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [35][36]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 09 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 5% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 上证指数 | | 3,924.08 | | 0.54 | | 深证成指 | | 13,329.99 | | 1.39 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,621.75 | | 0.81 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,49 ...