Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry for the third quarter of 2025 [2] Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit increased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with five sub-industries showing profit growth [16][17] - The overall performance of the sector declined in Q3 2025, with a 58% year-on-year drop in net profit, primarily due to significant losses in the breeding industry [18][19] - The pig farming sector faced a downturn with falling prices and a return to industry-wide losses, while the poultry sector showed mixed results with white feathered chickens stabilizing and yellow feathered chickens experiencing a significant decline [22][58] - The pet food segment continues to thrive domestically, although exports have been negatively impacted by increased tariffs [22][58] - The animal health sector benefited from high livestock inventory levels, leading to substantial revenue growth for companies in this space [22][58] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 369.4 billion, marking an 11% increase year-on-year [16] - In Q3 2025, the sector's net profit was 95.9 billion, reflecting a 58% decrease year-on-year and a 27% decrease quarter-on-quarter [18] 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3036.4 billion, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase, but Q3 saw a significant profit drop of 68.4% [22] - The average profit per head for self-bred pigs was approximately 60 yuan, with significant variations among companies [36][38] 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken companies reported a revenue of 243.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 104.6% [64] - Yellow feathered chicken prices declined significantly, leading to a challenging market environment [58] 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector achieved a revenue of 103.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [22] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, while exports to the U.S. have decreased by 25.6% due to tariffs [22] 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector's revenue reached 132.7 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 70.2% increase in net profit [22] - New product launches have contributed to above-average growth for some companies in this sector [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector demonstrates resilience amid market corrections, with the highest "pig content" ETF (159275) showing a 0.3% increase despite overall market declines [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 5, the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) rose by 0.3%, while individual stocks in edible fungi, pig farming, and meat chicken farming saw significant gains, with Zhongxing Junye rising over 2% [1]. - The ETF's underlying index, the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, has a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, placing it in the lower 30.08% of its historical range, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reiterated the need for pig production capacity regulation, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 40.35 million by the end of September, a drop of 450,000 from last year's peak [1]. - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a cumulative decline of 90,000 breeding sows reported in Q3 [2]. - Analysts expect the industry to focus on quality and efficiency improvements, with lower-cost, financially stable producers likely to gain market share as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery ETF (159275) as a strategic entry point into the sector, which includes leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [4]. - The ETF is noted for its high exposure to the pig farming sector, which constitutes 40.25% of its holdings, making it a unique investment vehicle in this space [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][44]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 1.1% from October 17 to October 30, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 3.08 percentage points [11]. - Among the sub-sectors, only planting and agricultural product processing recorded positive returns, increasing by 1.47% and 0.44% respectively, while fisheries, animal health, breeding, and feed sectors experienced negative returns, declining by 1.22%, 1.63%, 2.56%, and 4.24% respectively [14]. - The overall price of live pigs has rebounded, with the average price rising from 11.17 CNY/kg to 12.56 CNY/kg during the reporting period [23]. - The number of breeding sows as of the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a potential for further capacity reduction [23]. - The report highlights the narrowing of losses in pig farming, with self-breeding losses at -89.33 CNY per head and purchased piglet losses at -179.72 CNY per head, showing improvement compared to the previous week [27]. - The average price of broiler chicks increased to 3.58 CNY per chick, while the average price of white feather broilers rose to 7.09 CNY/kg, indicating a slight recovery in poultry prices [29][32]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in leading companies within the industry, particularly in pig farming, poultry farming, feed production, animal health, and pet food sectors [44]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.1% from October 17 to October 30, 2025 [11]. - Only a few sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with planting and agricultural product processing increasing by 1.47% and 0.44% respectively [14]. - Over half of the stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [15]. Industry Key Data - The average price of live pigs increased from 11.17 CNY/kg to 12.56 CNY/kg [23]. - The breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million, slightly down by 0.07% [23]. - The average prices for corn and soybean meal showed slight declines, with corn at 2242.16 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3028 CNY/ton [25]. - Losses in pig farming narrowed, with self-breeding losses at -89.33 CNY per head [27]. Company Insights - The Q3 performance of pig and chicken farming companies showed a year-on-year decline in profitability due to lower prices compared to the previous year [35]. - Leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are highlighted for their market positions and potential for recovery [44].

Group 1 - The report highlights that public fund holdings in the TMT sector have reached a historical high of approximately 40%, suggesting a need for more balanced industry allocation [1][5][6] - The report indicates that the TMT sector has seen a significant increase in fund allocation, with a rise of 11.20 percentage points to 39.85%, marking a historical peak [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with better cost-performance ratios, particularly in TMT and other high-performing industries [7] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strategic stability, risk response, and efficiency improvement, indicating a focus on maintaining competitive advantages in international markets [9][10] - The report outlines that the North Exchange is entering a strategic opportunity period, with a focus on product innovation and market vitality enhancement [14][16] - The North Exchange aims to support innovative small and medium enterprises and enhance market openness through various reforms [14][16] Group 3 - The report on Huace Navigation indicates that the company has shown robust performance in its core business, with a projected net profit of 7.3 billion, 9.5 billion, and 12.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][20] - The company has experienced significant growth in overseas markets, contributing to its overall revenue and profit increase [18][20] - The report notes that Huace Navigation's gross profit margin has improved, reaching 60.4% in the first three quarters of 2025 [19] Group 4 - The report on Jucheng Co. highlights a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a 21.29% year-on-year growth in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [22][24] - The company has successfully expanded its high-value product offerings, leading to improved profitability [23][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of R&D investment, which reached a historical high of 1.46 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [23] Group 5 - The report on Tianhe Pharmaceutical indicates a gradual improvement in its fundamentals, with a notable increase in net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [41][43] - The company is focusing on international expansion and enhancing its service capabilities through strategic acquisitions [42][43] - The report projects significant revenue growth for Tianhe Pharmaceutical, with expected revenues of 71.93 billion, 79.78 billion, and 90.86 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [43]

Core Viewpoint - Yike Foods, a major poultry slaughtering and processing enterprise in China, has shown strong revenue performance but faces challenges with profitability and high debt levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yike Foods was established on August 7, 2008, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 18, 2022, with its headquarters in Suqian, Jiangsu Province [1]. - The company operates across the entire poultry industry chain, including slaughtering, processing, feed production, and sales of poultry products [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Yike Foods reported revenue of 13.678 billion yuan, ranking second among eight companies in the industry, while the industry leader, Shengnong Development, reported 14.706 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was -303 million yuan, placing Yike Foods last in the industry, with Shengnong Development achieving a net profit of 1.172 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Yike Foods had a debt-to-asset ratio of 70.38%, significantly higher than the industry average of 50% [3]. - The gross profit margin for the same period was 1.77%, which is below the industry average of 11.25% [3]. Group 4: Executive Compensation - The chairman and general manager, Tian Liyu, received a salary of 1.0475 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 330,500 yuan from the previous year [4]. Group 5: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 11.78% to 12,400, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 13.36% to 36,200 [5]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF, which increased its holdings by 1,008,300 shares [5]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The company experienced a decline in net profit of 191% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a revenue drop of 4.80% in 2024 [5]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to maintain expansion in slaughtering capacity and improve gross margins, with projected net profits of 50 million yuan in 2025 and 90 million yuan in 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market pullback on October 28, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a decline of 0.5% during the trading day [1][2]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) traded at 0.989, reflecting a decrease of 0.5% [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including biological shares, poultry farming, and aquaculture feed, saw declines, with several stocks dropping over 2% [1]. Sector Analysis - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's fundamentals are expected to improve gradually, suggesting that the current pullback may present a good investment opportunity [1]. - Oriental Securities is optimistic about the pig farming sector, citing recent policies and market forces that are driving capacity reduction, which will enhance long-term performance [1]. - The feed and animal health sectors are anticipated to benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, which could lead to improved profitability across the supply chain [1]. Valuation Insights - The agricultural sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, which is at the 30.08 percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5][6]. Future Outlook - Guosen Securities is optimistic about a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly in beef and raw milk sectors, predicting a potential upturn in 2025 [7]. - The pig farming sector is expected to see a reduction in production capacity, which may positively influence stock prices and sector performance [7]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI All Agricultural Index, which encompasses a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing comprehensive exposure to potential recovery opportunities [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yisheng Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price fluctuation with a recent increase of 2.03%, while facing a year-to-date decline of 2.55% [1][2]. Company Overview - Yisheng Co., Ltd. was established on April 22, 1997, and listed on August 10, 2010. The company is located in Yantai, Shandong Province, and its main business includes breeding and sales of various generations of meat chickens, pig farming, agricultural equipment production, feed production, dairy farming, and organic fertilizer production [2]. - The revenue composition of Yisheng Co., Ltd. is as follows: chicken revenue accounts for 76.18%, pig revenue 15.47%, livestock equipment revenue 5.48%, dairy revenue 1.72%, and other revenue 1.14% [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yisheng Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 1.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.1551 million yuan, down 96.64% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Yisheng Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 1.692 billion yuan in dividends, with 602 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Yisheng Co., Ltd. was 48,000, an increase of 3.00% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.91% to 15,601 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF holds 9.4508 million shares, an increase of 1.664 million shares compared to the previous period. Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has exited the top ten circulating shareholders list [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shenyang is focusing on becoming a leading modern agricultural development area and a strong agricultural city, emphasizing high-quality development of its agricultural industry, particularly in specific sectors like edible fungi, facility vegetables, and meat chicken production [3] Group 1: Agricultural Development Goals - Shenyang aims to establish itself as a strong agricultural city and a major food industry hub, with a focus on high-quality development in agriculture [3] - The city is promoting a diverse range of agricultural products, including edible fungi, facility vegetables, soybeans, and fresh water aquaculture, under the "1+8" agricultural characteristic industry model [3] Group 2: Meat Chicken Industry - The city has been enhancing its chicken culture and developing a full chain of meat chicken production, from breeding to processing and sales, transforming "small specialties" into a "big industry" [3] - Future efforts will concentrate on key areas such as Liao Zhong District, Sujiatun District, and Shenyang North New District to optimize resource allocation and create competitive industrial clusters for the meat chicken industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shengnong Development has shown a mixed performance in recent trading, with a year-to-date increase of 19.80% but a decline of 2.77% over the last five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 21, Shengnong Development's stock price was 16.87 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 20.972 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a net inflow of 18.0087 million CNY from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1] - The stock has fluctuated with a 60-day increase of 5.04% and a 20-day decrease of 3.87% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shengnong Development reported a revenue of 8.856 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 910 million CNY, showing a significant increase of 791.93% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 10, the number of shareholders for Shengnong Development was 32,100, with an average of 38,224 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.860 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.113 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable increases in holdings by Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF [3]