金融工程/[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 | 风格及行业观点月报（2025.06） | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 风格轮动模型持续得到验证，行业轮动两模型均推荐配置非银 | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | 本报告导读： | | 卓洢萱(分析师) | | 风格轮动模型层面，2025Q2，宏观量价双驱大小盘、价值成长模型分别发出大盘、 | | 021-38676666 | | 价值信号。5 月，风格轮动模型预判获得持续印证。行业轮动模型层面，5 月，单因 子多策略模型表现较优，月收益率为 3.31%，相对基准的超额为 0.33%。 | 登记编号 | S0880525040128 | 投资要点： 基 本 面 量 化 月 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 6947146 [Table_Summary] 风格层面，2025Q2，大小盘双驱轮动策略发出大盘信号,5 月，大盘 占优，相对小盘的月超额为 0.56%。2025Q2， ...

Core Insights - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal significant fluctuations in A-share performance, with a notable recovery in net profit growth in Q1 2025 after a substantial decline in 2024 [2][6][26] Group 1: Financial Performance Analysis - The net profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 was 3.31%, a recovery from a -13.36% decline in 2024 [2][5] - The increase in net profit in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by operating income, which contributed 212.33 billion yuan, and financial investment income, which added 114.01 billion yuan [2][5] - The significant drop in net profit in Q4 2024 was mainly due to a sharp decline in operating income, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [3][5] Group 2: Impacts of Impairment Losses - The 2024 annual report indicated a substantial increase in asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses, which significantly pressured net profit [6][9] - Key industries affected by impairment losses included non-ferrous metals, retail, machinery, transportation, and communications [9] Group 3: Value Changes and Government Subsidies - In Q1 2025, fair value changes in financial investments saw a significant increase, contributing to net profit growth [11][14] - Government subsidies related to daily business activities increased, particularly in sectors like real estate, social services, and public infrastructure, with "other income" reaching 889.59 billion yuan [16] Group 4: Industry Performance and Cash Flow - Industries showing significant improvement in operating income in Q1 2025 included steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery, with some sectors like agriculture and construction materials also reporting high growth rates [18][19] - Adjusted operating cash flow metrics indicate potential for improved cash generation in sectors such as agriculture, electronics, and household appliances [20][21] Group 5: Strategic Expansion Trends - Strategic expansion activities, including internal capacity expansion and external acquisitions, accelerated in Q1 2025, particularly in the automotive, household appliances, and coal industries [24][25] Group 6: Free Cash Flow and Stakeholder Returns - The ability of companies to generate free cash flow to meet stakeholder demands reached historical highs, with 13.70% of non-financial A-share companies able to cover their obligations [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and most credit spreads widened. Specifically, the yields of 0.5 - 1Y securities company subordinated bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 1Y industrial bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, and securities company ordinary bonds mostly rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 3Y commercial bank perpetual bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 5Y industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 5Y urban investment bonds mostly rose by more than 4bp. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of 1 - 2Y urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mostly widened by more than 1bp, those of 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and commercial bank secondary capital bonds mostly widened by more than 2bp, and the credit spreads of 5Y commercial financial bonds narrowed by more than 2bp [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - **Yields and Changes by Term**: Various bond yields showed different degrees of increase. For example, the yields of government bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, and various types of corporate bonds all had corresponding upward trends, with different magnitudes of change in different terms. For instance, the 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, while the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly [7][12]. - **Spreads and Changes by Term**: Credit spreads also showed different trends. The credit spreads of most bonds widened, but there were also some exceptions, such as the 5Y commercial financial bond credit spread which narrowed by more than 2bp. Different types of bonds and different terms had different degrees of spread change [2][6][14]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban Investment Bonds by Region**: The yields of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, but the 5Y Shanghai urban investment bond yield decreased by about 11bp. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened, and the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. The performance of AA - rated bonds continued to be differentiated, with high - yield provinces often accompanied by larger credit spreads [7]. - **Industrial Bonds by Industry**: From April 21 to April 25, the yields of industrial bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads generally widened [7]. - **Financial Bonds by Issuer**: The yields of financial bonds generally increased, but the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly, and the credit spread narrowed accordingly. The 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, and the credit spread of financial bonds generally widened [7]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) - **Yields and Spread Differentiation**: From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and credit spreads were differentiated. The 5Y Guizhou bonds could achieve yields of more than 2.9%, and the 5Y Qinghai/Yunnan bonds could achieve yields of 3.1% and above, with the 5Y Guizhou bond spread significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. Except for the obvious differentiation of AA - rated bond yields, there was no significant difference in the yields of the optimal individual bonds of urban investment bonds in provinces with medium - and high implicit ratings. In terms of administrative levels, Guizhou district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 4.3%, and Yunnan district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 3.9%. The yields of real - estate private enterprise bonds at all terms were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y basic chemical industry yields decreased by more than 12bp. The credit spreads of financial bonds were differentiated, and the yields of 0 - 0.5Y/3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could achieve 4.0% and above [8].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the economic data validates the previously low expectations, indicating limited room for further downward adjustments [3] - The article discusses the potential for a strategic opportunity shift, with expectations for a comprehensive bull market by 2026 [7] - The article highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on China, suggesting that the threat may dampen risk appetite, particularly with a sensitive window in Q2 2025 [8] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced four consecutive years of negative returns, but there is a significant probability of a sector rotation reversal in 2025 [9] - The article notes that while short-term sentiment indicators are high, overall market liquidity has not reached previous peaks, suggesting a cautious long-term outlook amidst rising technology industry trends [11] - The article outlines a cautious investment strategy for U.S. stocks, recommending hedging and timely profit-taking during potential rebounds, particularly in the tech sector [14]