上述负责人表示，全国碳市场配额清缴完成情况保持在高水平。2024年度配额应清缴总量81.94亿吨， 配额清缴完成率约99.99%，未按时足额清缴配额的重点排放单位将按照《碳排放权交易管理暂行条 例》《碳排放权交易管理办法（试行）》依法依规予以处理。 2025年，温室气体自愿减排项目方法学制定和发布工作加快推进，共发布了油田气回收利用、盐沼植被 修复、规模化猪场粪污沼气回收利用工程、电气设备六氟化硫回收净化等12项方法学，市场迎来快速扩 容。自愿减排项目及减排量登记工作也在快速推进中，截至2025年12月底，已登记的自愿减排项目33 个，减排量1776.37万吨；核证自愿减排量累计成交量921.94万吨，成交额6.5亿元；注册登记系统累计 开户6106家，涵盖项目业主、重点排放单位、金融机构等法人组织。 生态环境部应对气候变化司有关负责人表示，一年来，全国碳市场运行平稳有序，市场活力稳步提升。 全国碳市场重点排放单位碳减排意识持续加强，配额清缴完成情况保持在高水平，全国温室气体自愿减 排交易市场支持领域进一步扩大，市场迎来快速扩容。全国碳市场推动全社会实现低成本减排功能不断 显现。 据统计，2025年，纳入全国 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in 2025 is operating smoothly and steadily, with increasing market vitality and a high level of compliance in quota clearance [1][2] - The carbon emissions trading market is showing a low-cost reduction function for society, with significant growth in both the volume and value of transactions [1] Group 1: Carbon Emissions Trading Market - In 2025, a total of 3,378 key emission units are included in the carbon emissions trading market, with 2,087 from the power generation sector, 232 from the steel sector, 962 from the cement sector, and 97 from the aluminum smelting sector [1] - The cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission rights reached 865 million tons by December 31, 2025, with a cumulative transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [1] - The transaction volume for the year 2025 was 235 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.630 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction market is expanding rapidly, with 12 methodologies published for projects such as oilfield gas recovery and salt marsh vegetation restoration [2] - By the end of December 2025, 33 voluntary emission reduction projects were registered, with a total reduction volume of 17.7637 million tons [2] - The cumulative transaction volume of verified voluntary reduction amounts reached 9.2194 million tons, with a transaction value of 650 million yuan and an average transaction price of 70.76 yuan per ton [2]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has maintained a stable and orderly operation in 2025, with increasing market vitality and reasonable trading prices [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan [2] - In 2025, the annual trading volume of allowances was 235 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, with a transaction value of 14.630 billion yuan [2] - The closing price at the end of 2025 was 74.63 yuan per ton, while the average trading price for the year was 62.36 yuan per ton [2] Group 2: Compliance and Regulations - The completion rate for the 2024 carbon allowance compliance was approximately 99.99%, with a total compliance requirement of 8.194 billion tons [4] - Non-compliant key emission units will be dealt with according to relevant regulations [4] Group 3: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The voluntary emission reduction market has expanded, with 33 registered projects and a total reduction volume of 17.7637 million tons by the end of 2025 [4] - The cumulative trading volume of verified voluntary emission reductions was 9.2194 million tons, with a transaction value of 650 million yuan and an average trading price of 70.76 yuan per ton [4] - The voluntary reduction trading market saw significant activity in the fourth quarter, with December alone accounting for 68.2% of the total annual trading volume [5] Group 4: Institutional Developments - The Beijing Green Exchange reported that the national voluntary emission reduction trading market was launched on January 22, 2024, with the first batch of CCERs registered on March 6, 2025 [5] - The Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange released revised trading rules to further regulate market behavior and protect the rights of trading entities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of developing disruptive carbon-neutral technologies to achieve significant reductions in carbon emissions in high-carbon industries such as electricity, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which currently rely on traditional processes that do not meet carbon neutrality standards [1][2]. Group 1: Disruptive Carbon-Neutral Technologies - Approximately half of carbon-neutral technologies have not yet reached commercial scale, particularly in "hard tech" and "deep tech," which are crucial for significant carbon emission reductions [2]. - Disruptive technologies related to "hard tech" include efficient photovoltaic cells, green hydrogen, and new energy storage systems, while "deep tech" encompasses electrochemical ironmaking, silicon-magnesium cement, and inert anode aluminum smelting [2]. - These technologies face market investment challenges due to high capital intensity and long investment cycles, often requiring decades to scale from prototypes to commercial viability [2][3]. Group 2: Public Capital to Leverage Market Capital - Public capital is essential for supporting the development of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, as it can alleviate some financial constraints, but its scale is limited [4]. - The main challenge for market capital is obtaining risk-adjusted returns, which can be addressed by using public capital to reduce field risks and attract diverse investors [4]. - Public capital can catalyze market capital by improving the risk-return profile through donations, guarantees, and other financial structures, thereby accelerating the development of tech startups [5][4]. Group 3: Case Studies of Public Capital Leveraging Market Capital - Boston Metal and Sublime Systems are examples where public capital provided grants for prototype validation and technology scaling, successfully attracting market investments for further development [8][11]. - Elysis and Zhongchu Guoneng are cases where public capital was used to co-invest with market capital during the demonstration and early commercialization stages, effectively filling funding gaps [11][12]. - The article outlines various international and domestic cases where public capital has successfully attracted market capital, demonstrating effective mechanisms for leveraging investments in disruptive carbon-neutral technologies [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To further promote the innovation and development of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, public capital should focus on supporting tech startups, establishing clear financing policies, and exploring financing mechanisms suitable for carbon-neutral tech [13][14]. - The transition from merely providing funds to achieving tangible outcomes for enterprises is crucial for unlocking economic potential and achieving climate goals [14].

相关产品方面，天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数(A类：017192；C类：017193)紧密跟踪中证工业有色 金属主题指数，中证工业有色金属主题指数选取市值较大的30只业务涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀土金属等行 业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映工业有色金属主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 感兴趣的伙伴，上支付宝APP搜索：天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数(A类：017192；C类：017193)即可 了解详情。 风险提示：观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议，市场有风险，投资需谨慎。投资者在购买基金前应仔细阅 读基金招募说明书与基金合同，请根据自身投资目的、投资期限、投资经验等因素充分考虑自身的风险 承受能力，在了解产品情况及销售适当性意见的基础上，理性判断并谨慎做出投资决策。指数基金存在 跟踪误差。以上仅为对指数成分股列示，非个股推荐。指数历史表现不构成对基金产品未来收益的预测 及保证。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 2025年12月26日，有色板块震荡走强，铜、贵金属方向领涨。沪铜期货价格强势攀升，一举突破98000 元/吨大关，再创历史新高。截至13:06，中证工业有色金属主题指数强势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-24 弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行 有⾊观点：弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本⾦属突破上⾏ 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月初汽车销 售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本 金属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，弱美元和供应忧 虑的影响再度占据主导，连现实供需偏弱但供应有收缩预期的镍也被大幅 推高，弱消费及供需偏松的现实影响成为次要因素，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行，可继续关注铜铝锡偏多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策 预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝 锡价格走势。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z ...

据了解，目前该技术已在国家电投内蒙古白音华煤电有限公司铝电分公司等实现项目落地。应用数据显 示，该技术可减少工程设计质量问题15%以上，电流效率较设计指标提升1.56个百分点，累计实现新增 销售额超1.6亿元，经济效益显著。（夏天一） 原标题：新技术攻克铝电解智能化领域多项难题 来源：科技日报 原标题：新技术攻克铝电解智能化领域多项难题 科技日报讯 （记者夏天一 通讯员王晶）记者从中铝国际沈阳铝镁研究设计院获悉，日前，该院自主研 发的"基于模型与数据融合的铝电解槽设计—建造—运行全周期优化技术"，首次构建覆盖电解槽全生命 周期的精细化优化体系，攻克了多源异构数据集成、强耦合动态建模等行业难题，实现工业应用并通过 行业学会评价，整体技术达到国际领先水平，标志着我国在铝电解智能化领域取得重要突破。 中铝国际沈阳铝镁研究设计院副总经理、首席工程师李志国介绍，该院围绕传统铝电解行业长期面临的 设计、建造、运行环节数据割裂的行业难点，开展模型构建、数据融合与系统集成攻关，建立电—热— 流—浓度多场高效动态仿真模型，实现关键建造过程数据100%采集与质量安全闭环管理，求解速度较 传统模型提升120倍以上，精度超95%。 ...

"某发电集团靠出售富余碳排放配额赚了2000万元""家门口的工厂因减排成效显著，贷款利率下降 了30%"……如今，越来越多企业尝到绿色转型的甜头，而碳定价这只"看不见的手"已悄然渗透到经济 社会多个场景。 "总的来说，这并非一个简单的计算题，而是在寻求一个动态平衡。"一位业内人士如是解释。 发达国家的"先行者红利" 作为全球碳中和浪潮的核心政策工具，碳定价通过碳税或碳排放权交易体系让污染者为碳排放付 费，既催生了千亿级"绿色财政收入"，也在重塑各国经济发展格局。这笔钱该如何收、如何花？对不同 发展阶段的国家意味着怎样的机遇与挑战？中国又该如何走出特色碳定价之路？这早已不仅是环保问 题，更是关乎经济发展与社会公平的核心议题。 碳定价的"双刃剑" 碳定价的核心逻辑简洁明了——给二氧化碳等温室气体标上价格，通过市场机制倒逼企业减排，同 时为政府创造新的财政收入来源。世界银行数据显示，2023年，全球碳定价产生的财政收入达创纪录的 1040亿美元，这笔"绿色巨款"正成为推动能源转型、技术创新的关键资金支撑。 但是，碳定价也面临多重功能平衡挑战。从财税影响来看，碳定价具有鲜明双重属性：既是减排的 环境政策工具，也是重塑 ...

Report Title - "National Carbon Market: One Thing Gains While Another Loses, Aftershocks Still Linger — Outlook for the Annual Market of the National Carbon Market in 2026" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The macro - emission reduction target will provide an important reference for the downward adjustment path of the power generation industry's quota benchmark value. If 2025 is the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [2]. - The supply capacity of CCER will continue to expand in 2026, which will weaken the upward driving force of carbon prices. The total supply of "new supply + inventory" of CCER in 2026 is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA" in 2026, key emission units may use CCER on a large scale to replace quotas or fill compliance gaps [3]. - In 2026, the market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited. Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [3]. - The annual strategy is to go long on dips below 70 yuan/ton and take profit above 90 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Review Carbon Price Breakdown and Limited Rebound - In 2025, the price of China's national carbon market carbon emission allowances (CEA) showed a downward trend, with the price center shifting down by about 35% year - on - year. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of the whole market was about 61.48 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 35%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: sharp decline in the first three quarters, a sharp drop and then a rebound in October, and a rise and then a fall in mid - November [8]. - The older the year - label of the quota, the firmer the quota price. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of CEA24 was the lowest at about 59.04 yuan/ton, while CEA19 - 20 had the highest average transaction price at 75.13 yuan/ton [13] Nearly 9% Annual Turnover Rate and Increased Share of Listing Transactions - Thanks to "advance allocation" and "quota carry - over", the market trading activity continued to improve. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was about 194.23 million tons, the cumulative turnover was about 11.9 billion yuan, and the annual turnover rate was nearly 9%. The cumulative trading volume increased by about 53% year - on - year, and the turnover rate increased by 5.3 percentage points [15]. - Bulk agreement transactions still dominated, but the share of listing agreement transactions increased significantly, rising by about 11 percentage points year - on - year. The one - way call auction trading introduced in July was relatively inactive due to the rule setting and the market decline [17][19]. - CEA24 was the main trading target in 2025, accounting for about 71% of the trading volume as of December 5, 2025 [19] Four Key Policy Nodes Affected Market Trading Rhythm - The "rectification and volume increase" expectation in February was falsified as the 2023 compliance completion rate was high. The release of the expansion plan in March led to the release of forced - circulation quotas. The pre - allocation of quotas in April and the stable recovery of carbon prices doubled the market trading scale. The final allocation of quotas in August led to the largest concentrated trading volume of the year. The release of the quota plan for newly - included industries in November increased the potential demand, but the actual procurement demand was limited [21][24][25] 2026 Supply - Demand Outlook Power Generation Industry: Disassembling Macro - Emission Reduction Targets to Anchor the Downward Adjustment Path of Benchmark Values - China's attitude towards achieving the 2030 intensity target is relatively prudent, leaving room for policy adjustment. When setting the 2035 emission target, China took a relatively cautious attitude, leaving necessary strategic space for the implementation of the 2030 intensity target [33]. - Assuming 2025 as the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [38][39][44] CCER: Expanding Supply Capacity and Weakening the Upward Driving Force of Carbon Prices - The CCER market restarted in January 2022, but the project development rhythm was slower than expected in the early stage due to factors such as methodological disputes and the slowdown of project review and verification by the regulatory authorities [45]. - The CCER supply in 2025 was about 15 million tons, and about 5 million tons were used for 2024 compliance. The estimated market surplus at the end of 2025 was about 10 million tons [47][49]. - It is estimated that the new supply of CCER in 2026 will be 15 - 22.5 million tons, and the total supply of "new supply + inventory" is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA", it may significantly weaken the annual supply - demand contradiction in the national carbon market [52][53] 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the quota gap in the power generation industry may expand, but it will be partially offset by the increase in CCER supply. The market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited [55]. - In the first half of 2026, the market may be in a "near - stagnant" state. The carry - over rule will still have a residual impact on the market, and the market confidence needs to be restored before the introduction of new policies [55][56]. - Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]