Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in pricing between electrolytic aluminum and its primary raw material, alumina, driven by differing supply constraints and demand outlooks [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolytic aluminum prices have risen by 20% over the past year, while alumina prices have fallen by 25%, highlighting a stark contrast in market dynamics [1][2] - The theoretical profit for alumina has decreased by 111%, whereas electrolytic aluminum's theoretical profit has increased by 264% [1][2] - The price divergence is attributed to the rigid supply constraints on electrolytic aluminum, which is capped at a production capacity of 45 million tons, with a utilization rate of 97% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is bolstered by sectors such as AI, energy storage, and electric vehicles, creating a favorable outlook for its pricing [2][3] - In contrast, alumina faces oversupply, with a projected utilization rate of less than 80% by 2025, and new production capacity being added, particularly in Guangxi [2][4] - The influx of low-cost alumina from overseas, particularly from Indonesia and India, is exacerbating supply pressures, leading to record-high social inventories [2][4] Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by demand fluctuations rather than raw material costs, marking a shift from a cost-driven pricing model to one governed by supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Alumina, lacking pricing power, follows cost changes and is currently under pressure due to a significant drop in production costs, necessitating a search for new lower price equilibrium [4][5] - The contrasting profit dynamics between the two segments illustrate a market mechanism where profits are shifting from upstream alumina to downstream electrolytic aluminum [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term resolution of the price divergence is unlikely unless there is significant production reduction in the alumina sector, which has not yet occurred on a large scale [5] - Long-term improvement in the pricing relationship will depend on the alumina industry's ability to optimize its supply-demand balance and return to healthier profit levels [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the carbon neutrality sector, emphasizing the emergence of multi-layered and long-term investment opportunities driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the deepening of the national carbon market [3][11]. Core Insights - The transition towards a green economy in China has moved from conceptual advocacy to a substantive phase, creating a systematic investment landscape centered around four dimensions: energy system restructuring, industrial green premium, carbon reduction technology expansion, and the rise of supporting services [3][11]. Summary by Sections Carbon Peak and Neutrality Policy Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" are critical periods for achieving carbon peak goals, with a comprehensive "1+N" policy system established to guide the transition [9][18]. - The energy consumption dual control is transitioning to carbon emission dual control, with a three-phase approach leading to comprehensive implementation by 2025 [9][22]. Market-Based Emission Reduction Mechanism - The carbon market's core mechanism is to guide carbon pricing through quotas, CCER, and green certificates [10][31]. - By the end of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market is expected to reach 860 million tons, with a transaction value of 58.12 billion yuan and an average price of 67.6 yuan per ton [42][43]. Investment Strategy: Four-Dimensional Industrial Opportunities - The dual carbon process will create multi-layered, long-cycle investment opportunities across four dimensions: 1. **Energy System Restructuring**: Focus on new power systems, emphasizing photovoltaic and wind power technology advancements, and integrating non-electric applications like green hydrogen [11]. 2. **Industrial Green Premium**: The internalization of carbon costs is reshaping high-energy-consuming industries, providing cost advantages to companies with low-carbon processes [11]. 3. **Carbon Reduction Technology Breakthroughs**: Technologies in hard-to-abate sectors are entering a phase of scale, with significant demand for energy-saving equipment and recycling technologies [11]. 4. **Emergence of Carbon Management Services**: The assetization of carbon is driving demand for carbon monitoring, accounting platforms, and professional services to help companies manage risks and optimize assets [11].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/2 10-099 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: 2026 Tax Reform to Be Further Advanced From CLS. Futures Prices: On Jan 2 ...

作者 | 第一财 经 李秀中 在房地产市场形势持续下行和推动产业投资不断增长的背景之下，云南的投资结构在过去5年发生了变化， 房地产投资骤降一半多，产业投资增长了近一倍。 1月28日，云南省统计局发布《"十四五"时期云南经济社会发展取得重大成就》（下称《"十四五"成 就》）。文章称，"十四五"时期，云南推动投资增长由房地产和交通水利等基础设施投资拉动向产业投资拉 动转变，由主要依靠政府投资带动向政府投资、民间投资协同驱动转变，由主要依靠高负债投入、粗放式增 长向扩大有效益的投资转变。 2026.01. 28 本文字数：1008，阅读时长大约2分钟 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 《"十四五"成就》显示，2025年，云南水利投资占全部投资比重达4.8%，较2020年提高1.5个百分点，房 地产投资占比由2020年的27.2%下降至2025年的12.0% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes China's commitment to accelerating a comprehensive green transformation in its economy and society, with a focus on achieving carbon neutrality by 2035 [1][4][5] - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has set "accelerating comprehensive green transformation" as a core task for the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of ecological security and green development [4][5] - Key mechanisms for carbon neutrality have made significant progress, including the expansion of the national carbon market to cover steel, cement, and aluminum industries, and the establishment of national zero-carbon parks [1][6][11][13] Group 2 - China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption reaching over 30% of total energy consumption [6][10] - The national unified resource and environmental market is being developed to enhance market efficiency and promote the marketization of resource and environmental factors [7][8] - The total electricity consumption in China surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, marking a significant milestone and reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [9][10] Group 3 - The energy power strategy emphasizes energy security, green transformation, and technological self-reliance, with a focus on seven key tasks for energy work in 2026 [10][11] - The first batch of national zero-carbon parks has been established, with 52 parks across various regions, focusing on low-energy, low-pollution, and high-value-added industries [11][12] - The national carbon market has expanded to include three major high-energy-consuming industries, significantly increasing the coverage of carbon emissions [13][15] Group 4 - The issuance of green certificates reached nearly 3 billion in 2025, with international recognition from the RE100 initiative, enhancing the credibility and market demand for Chinese green certificates [16][17] - Twelve new CCER methodologies were implemented in 2025, focusing on key areas for voluntary emission reductions, which is expected to activate the voluntary carbon market [18][19] - The COP30 conference resulted in a commitment from wealthy nations to double funding for climate change adaptation by 2035, although the omission of fossil fuel references in the final text raised concerns [20][21]

其中，2021～2023年，产业投资和工业投资均保持两位数快速增长，特别是在2024年全部投资负增长的 情况下，产业投资增长2.2%，高于全部投资9.9个百分点。产业民间投资占全部民间投资比重由2021年 的42.6%提升至2025年的65.1%，有力支撑了全省经济高质量发展。 房地产开发投资曾经是云南经济快速增长的重要支撑。根据统计公报，2019年，云南房地产开发投资 4151.41亿元，比上年增长27.8%，带动全年固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长8.5%，当年云南GDP比 上年增长8.1%，高于全国2.0个百分点，位居全国第二位。 但是，最近几年，云南房地产开发投资呈快速下跌的趋势。根据统计公报，2020-2024年，云南房地产 开发投资分别增长8.5%、-4.3%、-26.9%、-34.4%和-28.5%，尤其是2022年以来，三年年均下降三成左 右，其累计下降幅度为全国之最。 近日，云南省统计局发布的数据显示，2025年，全省固定资产投资同比下降7.0%。其中，房地产开发 投资仍下降2.9%。绿色能源投资成为稳投资的重要支撑，风电投资同比增长54.3%，电力供应投资增长 45.0%，水电投资增长18 ...

27 January 2026 | 10:31PM SGT Commodities Research BASE METALS ANALYST Aluminium: Stress-Testing Our Bearish Aluminium Call Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Qianyuan Power has shown unusual movement, with a decline of 5.44% as of 9:51 AM today, trading 5.1362 million shares and a transaction amount of 96.9134 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.20% [2] - The company has released its latest earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of 567 million to 633 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 160.00% to 190.00% [2] - In the context of today's earnings forecasts, other companies such as Zhongrong Electric, Xinqi Microelectronics, and Yuheng Pharmaceutical have seen strong stock performance, with increases of 20.00%, 13.35%, and 10.03% respectively [2] Group 2 - Over the past five days, the main funds for Qianyuan Power have shown a net inflow, totaling 37.8493 million yuan, with a net inflow of 8.8855 million yuan on the previous trading day [2] - The latest margin trading data as of January 20 shows a total margin balance of 311 million yuan for the stock, with a financing balance of 311 million yuan, and an increase of 4.0664 million yuan in the financing balance over the past five days, representing a growth of 1.33% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face expectation is repeated but relatively stable. The raw material supply is tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations, with strong support on the supply side. Terminal consumption may improve, but the current supply - demand is weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, after the rapid price increase, consumption is inhibited, and prices may experience a significant correction. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disturbance concerns remains unchanged. After the market sentiment stabilizes, opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel can be considered. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The US December CPI data is in line with expectations; China's copper smelter has set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at 0; China's electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 19 showed a slight improvement; a Chilean copper mine will go on strike, and a copper mine in Ecuador has postponed its production. - **Main Logic**: The Fed may continue to be loose, providing support for copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is increasing, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Main Logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuations. The supply contraction is insufficient, the cost support is weak, but the price may fluctuate more due to more capital attention. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8][9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum increased, the Japanese port aluminum ingot premium increased, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month in December 2025. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas new project progress is uncertain. The high price suppresses demand, but overall, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating upward; medium - term: the price center is expected to rise [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of ADC12 was flat, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the warehouse receipts decreased, and an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory shows different trends. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term and medium - term: oscillating upward [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down, and zinc prices fall from a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the premium of zinc in different regions varied; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; LME no longer accepts the delivery of certain zinc brands. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is stable. The supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level, but there is a downward pressure in the long - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [17][18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down and the social inventory increases, so lead prices are under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots decreased, the social inventory increased, and LME no longer accepts the delivery of a certain lead brand. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel decreased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased; an Indonesian nickel company resumed production, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quota is uncertain. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [20][22][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: The warehouse receipts of stainless - steel futures are unchanged, the spot price has a certain premium, the price of high - nickel pig iron increases, and the price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to rise. - **Main Logic**: The cost support exists, the production may increase slightly, the demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [24][25]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The market competition intensifies, and tin prices adjust. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased; the spot price of tin decreased. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is disturbed, the production is difficult to increase, and the demand is growing. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [25][26][27]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Indexes - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on January 19, 2026: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28%. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 19, 2026 is 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.36%, a monthly increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [152][153][155].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The global economy is characterized as "stable but fragile," with the IMF projecting a growth rate of approximately 3.1% [2] - The cautious monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve is expected to support commodity prices, including aluminum, by enhancing liquidity and exerting pressure on the dollar [2] - Domestic policies for 2026 emphasize stability and proactive measures, with an expected continuation of moderately loose monetary policy and more aggressive fiscal policies aimed at major projects and infrastructure [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is entering a low-elasticity growth phase, with rigid constraints becoming the core issue [4] - Overseas supply faces risks of reduction in existing capacity, while new capacity growth is hindered by systemic challenges [4] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 44.8 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 1.4%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous years [5] Group 3: Cost Structure and Profitability - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain high profits in 2026, but internal differentiation will intensify [6] - Alumina prices are expected to decline due to a relaxed supply, contributing to cost advantages, while electricity prices may rise slightly, increasing cost disparities among companies [6] - Companies with stable low-cost electricity structures are likely to maintain a competitive edge in terms of costs and profits [6] Group 4: Demand Trends - Demand for aluminum is increasingly focused on green and high-end manufacturing sectors, with significant contributions from energy transition investments and the automotive sector [7] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is accelerating in various industries, driven by cost and policy factors [7] - The aluminum market is expected to enter a new cycle defined by supply constraints and green demand, with prices likely to rise throughout the year despite potential pressures in the latter half [7]