铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-16 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 铝类市场周报 淡季影响逐步显现，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡高位回落，周涨跌幅-1.66%，报23925元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-3.24%，报2751元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，铝土矿进口价格受氧化铝价格回落以及供给渐增的影响而逐步回落，国内港口库存小幅增加。 供给端，国内氧化铝在运行产能仅小幅减弱，并未出现大规模产能减少情况，故国内氧化铝供应仍显偏多，库存高位。 需求端，电解铝在运行产能小幅提升临近行业上限，由于产能天花板的存在，加之电解铝厂停起成本较高，整体基本 维持稳定运行态势，故对原料氧化铝需求情况稳定。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给偏多，需求稳定的状态。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the magnesium industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The magnesium industry is approaching a "singularity moment" as the penetration of magnesium alloys in the electric vehicle and humanoid robot sectors accelerates, with leading manufacturers expected to see a rapid release of orders [4][14]. - The magnesium-aluminum ratio is at a historical low, opening up cost-effective opportunities for magnesium to replace aluminum in various applications [10][12]. - Technological advancements are addressing the corrosion resistance and processing challenges of magnesium alloys, facilitating broader application [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Lightweight Cycle Review - The penetration rate of magnesium alloys has lagged behind expectations, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where the aluminum usage per vehicle is significantly higher than that of magnesium [23][24]. 2. Low Magnesium-Aluminum Ratio - The magnesium-aluminum ratio has dropped below 1, indicating that magnesium alloys are becoming more economically viable compared to aluminum [10][12]. - The supply of aluminum remains tight due to high overseas electricity prices and operational challenges, while the magnesium supply is gradually stabilizing [34][46]. 3. Technological Breakthroughs - Advances in semi-solid forming technology are improving the mechanical properties and corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys, thus expanding their application potential [10][11][32]. - The demand for lightweight materials in electric vehicles and humanoid robots is increasing, with projections indicating a significant rise in magnesium alloy usage [10][12][41]. 4. Summary - The magnesium industry is expected to experience growth driven by increasing demand and supply optimization policies, benefiting leading magnesium refining companies [54][56]. 5. Listed Companies - Key investment targets include Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182, Buy) and Xingyuan Zhuomag (301398, Not Rated), both of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth [4][14].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货24270，基差-105，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨14010吨至143828吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | 中间价 中间价 | 涨跌 涨跌 | | 类型 类型 | 总量（吨） 总量（吨） | 增减 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-13 铝锭库存超季节性累库 铝合金价格方面：2026-01-12保太民用生铝采购价格18000元/吨，机械生铝采购价格18300元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/吨。ADC12保太报价23400元/吨，价格环比昨日变化100元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.82万吨，厂内库存6.45万吨。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本22988元/吨，理论利润312元/吨。 市场分析 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24340元/吨，较上一交易日变化310元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价24180元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-260元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24390元/吨，较上一交易日变化290元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-12日沪铝主力合约开于24560元/吨，收于24650元/吨，较上一交易日变化610元/吨，最 高价达24915元/吨，最低价达到24370元/吨。全天交易日成交655011手，全天交易日持仓379081手。 ...

中信证券研报表示，展望2026年，我们预计光伏用铝加速下滑，电网和汽车延续高景气度，储能和空调 铝代铜增长有望提速，支撑电解铝需求增长后劲。同时，我们认为即使印尼产能新增投产背景下，行业 供给增速下移仍为趋势，且扰动抬头迹象逐步显现。我们预计2026年铝价中枢将达23000元/吨，持续看 好铝板块盈利、估值齐升行情。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

| 志特新材 | | 300986 | | --- | --- | --- | | 33.38 SECNY 15:30:48 液 | | +5.56 +19.99% 通 融 △ △ + | | Wind ESG评级 | BB | 详情 | | 交生 | 198.57% 120日 | 150.22% | | 5日 | 148.73% 250日 | 277.71% | | 20日 | 229.19% 52周高 | 27.82 | | 60日 | 186.28% 52周低 | 7.52 | 志特新材分别在1月8日和6日发布了股票交易异常波动公告。 公司同时明确，不存在关于公司应披露而未披露的重大事项，也不存在处于筹划阶段的重大事项。公司及子 公司生产经营正常，主营业务目前未发生重大变化。 志特新材是2026年A股首只翻倍股，也是年内涨幅最大的股票，截至1月12日已6连20cm涨停，近20个交易日 涨近230%。 1月12日晚，志特新材（300986）（300986）公告称，公司股票自2026年1月5日至1月12日连续6个交易日涨 停，涨幅为198.57%，股价波动较大。为维护投资者利益，公司将就股票交易波动情况进行 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 1月12日晚，志特新材（300986）公告称，公司股票自2026年1月5日至1月12日连续6个交易日 涨停，涨幅为 198.57% ，股价波动较大。为维护投资者利益， 公司将就股票交易波动情况进 行核查 ，股票自1月13日开市起停牌，预计停牌时间不超过3个交易日。 公司提醒广大投资者 注意二级市场交易风险。 公司同时明确，不存在关于公司应披露而未披露的重大事项，也不存在处于筹划阶段的重大事 项。公司及子公司生产经营正常，主营业务目前未发生重大变化。 志特新材是2026年A股首只翻倍股，也是年内涨幅最大的股票， 截至1月12日已6连20cm涨 停，近20个交易日涨近230%。 志特新材分别在1月8日和6日发布了股票交易异常波动公告。 志特新材属于铝行业，是AI应用、量子计算概念股。近日被称之为"科技春晚"的《中国科技创 新盛典》正式播出，志特新材代理的防火隔热材料产品在节目中亮相。（ 详情 ） （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） SFC 出品 | 2 1财经客户端 2 1世纪经济报道 商业航天ETF爆发，有人7天收益够交1个月房租，多家上市公司紧急 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，市场多头情绪高涨，推动沪铝震荡上行，铝合金价格跟随走高，当前主力合约涨幅超2%。 财政部宣布，自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品的增值税出口退税。这一政策可能促使光伏行业在短期 内赶工，带动板块消费阶段性提升，进而在短期内提振铝价，铸造铝期货价格也随之跟涨。 基本面方面，原料端，进口与国产废铝供应均较为紧张，税务调整使得部分地区成本上升，为铸造铝价 格提供了有力支撑。需求端表现疲软，受季节性淡季和年末氛围影响，合金厂开工率进一步降至58%， 这主要是区域环保管控反复以及订单不足所致。此外，汽车行业消费需求边际降温，对铸造铝的刚性需 求有限。现货端，下游企业畏高情绪明显，普遍选择消化库存、推迟采购或仅维持刚需，部分企业甚至 计划提前停产，市场成交清淡。不过，市场上也存在追涨补货的情况，带动了全天的交易量，今日整体 交投表现较为温和。当前，交易所库存为7万吨，小幅增加334吨。 整体来看，铸造铝市场供需两淡的格局仍在延续，但成本支撑依然强劲，短期内价格将维持偏好震荡态 势。中期而言，随着宏观多头氛围逐步消化，资金趋于冷静，铸造铝价格或进入高位休整阶段。 长江有色 ...