Core Viewpoint - The domestic alumina inventory continues to rise, reaching 5.62 million tons, indicating a robust supply of raw materials for electrolytic aluminum plants [1][3] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Inventory - The total inventory of alumina in China has increased to 5.62 million tons, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding 3.838 million tons [1][3] - As of last week, the alumina plant's bauxite inventory increased by 264,000 tons to 58.155 million tons, reflecting a stable supply of bauxite [1][2] - Domestic bauxite production in January was 5.34 million tons, showing significant growth year-on-year, except for a decline in Shanxi due to environmental and resource factors [1][2] Group 2: Alumina Prices and Market Dynamics - Alumina prices have remained volatile, with a low of 2,600 yuan/ton and a high of around 3,000 yuan/ton since December [1] - The current spot price of alumina is weak, with prices around 2,646 yuan/ton, and recent transactions in Xinjiang and Guangxi showing prices of 2,920 yuan/ton and 2,620 yuan/ton respectively [3][4] - The average theoretical profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry has expanded to over 7,000 yuan/ton, driven by weak alumina prices and declining auxiliary costs [4] Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - The total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remains stable at 11.032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8.588 million tons/year [2] - The operating rate has increased by 0.53 percentage points to 77.84%, with slight increases in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi, while Guizhou saw a minor decrease [2] - Despite some production cuts due to maintenance, the overall operating capacity of alumina remains high, contributing to significant supply pressure [2][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The alumina market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices due to high inventory levels and stable bauxite resources [4] - The electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 45.016 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [3]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown following a funding agreement [3][19] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China rose to a three-month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][19] - Copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, supporting a tight supply sentiment, while February's estimated electrolytic copper production is projected at 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The net imports of refined copper in December fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories increased by 29,000 tons to 1.123 million tons as of February 6, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - The market anticipates short-term price corrections due to demand disruptions around the Chinese New Year, but strong support is seen below 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating continued investor interest [5][21] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel ore premiums have increased, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising by $4.5/ton to $30/ton, while refined nickel production is expected to decline by 5% month-on-month to 35,800 tons [6][22] - The demand for new energy materials is projected to decrease, with February's production of ternary precursors expected to drop by 7% to 80,790 tons and ternary materials by 15% to 69,250 tons [6][22] - Stainless steel prices have generally declined, with total social inventory increasing by 1.29% week-on-week to 965,000 tons [6][22] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with nickel prices experiencing fluctuations, but cost support remains strong due to supply concerns from Indonesia [7][23] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching 2,824 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2%, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton [8][24] - The operating rate of alumina plants increased by 0.53% to 77.8%, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 343,200 tons [8][24] - Social inventories of alumina increased by 5,020 tons to 176,000 tons, while aluminum ingots saw a weekly increase of 5,400 tons to 836,000 tons [9][25] - The market anticipates a potential rebound in aluminum prices post-holiday, with attention on inventory levels and external market influences during the holiday period [9][26] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping to 8,500 yuan/ton, while polysilicon prices increased to 49,285 yuan/ton [11][27] - The production of industrial silicon decreased by 10,340 tons to 63,300 tons, with a notable reduction in operational furnaces [11][27] - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant price adjustments and a slowdown in new orders due to seasonal factors [12][28] - The market is expected to face challenges as supply tightens, with a focus on the upcoming demand recovery in the traditional peak season [12][29] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with a projected decline of 16.3% in February [14][30] - The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is also expected to decline, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium battery supply chain [14][31] - Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [14][33] - Market sentiment remains volatile, with price fluctuations influenced by downstream demand and strategic stocking behaviors ahead of the holiday [14][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].

铝月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面加大市场波动，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4%至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降。1月海 外电解铝产量同比增长接近2%。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTEEL数据，截至2月5日，铝锭库存录得85.3万吨，较1月初增加约15万吨。 保税区库存录得4.4万吨，较1月初减少约1.0万 吨。铝棒库存合计27.7万吨，较1月初增加10.2万吨。 LME铝库存录得49.3万吨，较1月初减少1.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货贴水缩窄，LME市 场Cash/3M升贴水先扬后抑。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铝现货进口亏损震荡缩窄。2025年12月中国原铝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate and adjust following the price of electrolytic aluminum [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data: The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6, hitting a new high since August 2022. The January ISM services PMI index slightly fell to 53.8 but was better than expected. The January ADP employment number was 22,000, lower than the market forecast. The release of the US non - farm payroll report was postponed [5][12]. - Chinese economic data: China's January official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. The Rating Dog manufacturing PMI rose to a three - month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices rising for the first time in 14 months [5][16]. - Market sentiment: Global large - scale silver ETF selling put pressure on the precious metal market. Market risk appetite was poor, and domestic PMI data weakened. Steady - growth policies need continuous efforts [5]. - Aluminum market fundamentals: Overseas new production capacity is slowly put into operation. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little in the near term. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some enterprises choose to take holidays in advance, and the demand shows a weakening trend. Aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little [8]. - Bearish factors: Social inventory continues to accumulate. Consumption weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. Precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8][9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite supply: From January to November this year, China's cumulative bauxite production was 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, the single - month output was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.26%. The domestic bauxite supply is tight. The total amount of imported bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to be relatively loose, and the export volume of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is expected to reach 180 million tons [18][21]. - Alumina market: In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.6 million tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is put into operation on time, the alumina supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons in 2026. Overseas, the planned new production capacity from 2025 - 2026 is 8.5 million tons, and 5.5 million tons are expected to be added in 2026. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in January, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [29]. - Aluminum processing: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate last week was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week [30]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased to 492,975 tons. As of January 30, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10% week - on - week to 216,771 tons. As of February 5, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 853,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from Monday [40][43]. - Price difference: On February 5, the average price of Shanghai Wumao aluminum had a reduced discount. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount increased [47]. - Recycled aluminum: In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a 41,800 - ton month - on - month decrease. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement. As of January 15, the recycled aluminum alloy industry start - up rate was 58%, unchanged from the previous week [50][54]. - Aluminum trade: In 2025, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In December, exports were 540,000 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports in December were 320,000 tons, a 33.3% year - on - year increase [58]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of January 30, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, a 300 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase from the previous week [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the electrolytic aluminum prices and continue to fluctuate and adjust [64]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [67].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23350，基差-35，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨19718吨至216771吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant to the Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the extreme chasing sentiment in the market continued to increase, and the AD price also followed the upward trend. However, since the night session on Thursday, precious metals started a stampede - style decline, and the panic sentiment spread in the market under the liquidity crisis, causing the AD price to fall from its high. With the Spring Festival approaching, the liquidity of the scrap aluminum market decreased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. As downstream die - casting industries entered the holiday season, secondary aluminum enterprises also took early holidays, and the overall industry operating rate is expected to continue to decline before the Spring Festival, restricting the supply side. Although the sharp rise in aluminum prices increased the theoretical profit of the secondary aluminum industry, the market showed the characteristic of "high prices but few transactions", and demand continued to weaken. Overall, with high aluminum prices and a seasonal off - peak demand period, the price of cast aluminum alloy may remain volatile at a high level. [4] - As of January 31, the explicit inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.63 tons to 13.84 million tons compared with the previous week, with a rapid increase in factory inventory but a continuous decrease in social inventory. From January 1 - 31, the retail sales of the passenger car market nationwide were 1.8 million, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The estimated new energy retail sales were about 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4%. In 2026, the maximum subsidy amount for the trade - in policy remained unchanged, but the subsidy method became more precise with the addition of vehicle prices as a limiting condition, which would benefit mid - to - high - end cars more. The weak retail data of automobiles in January this year was in line with expectations. [4] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data charts show the price differences between different AD contracts and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest over time, but no specific text analysis is provided [7] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation within the warehouse receipt system, taking the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on January 30, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost was 8.05 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 51.30 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 59 yuan/ton [10] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual spot quotation in the market fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking into account various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was calculated to be 23,752.7 yuan/ton [11][12] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously being depleted [14] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41% [17] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between secondary and primary aluminum has weakened [27] - Cast aluminum alloy regional spreads show certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined [37] - The monthly output of secondary aluminum alloy and its regional output shares are presented. For example, the output share of Henan is 0.34% [40][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line. The cost structure includes 90% scrap aluminum, 2% silicon, 4% copper, 1% natural gas, and 3% other components [43][44] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly [48] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy has opened, and relevant import volume, cumulative import volume, and import profit data are presented [54][55] - The production and inventory data of secondary aluminum rods and their regional shares are provided. For example, the production share of Shandong in secondary aluminum rods is 9.27% [57][59] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Automobile consumption has resilience, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Relevant data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the automobile inventory warning index [62][63]