Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].

最近一年走势 相关报告 -20% -11% -2% 7% 16% 25% 2024/07 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 2025/07 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：需求淡季深入，铝锭小幅累库（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-07-07 证券研究报告 2025年07月13日 有色金属 铝行业周报：海外关税扰动再起，铝需求淡季深入 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 重点关注公司及盈利预测 | 重点公司代码 | 股票名称 | 2025/07/11 | | EPS | | | PE | | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股价 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | | 1378.HK | 中国 ...

研究所 供应过剩逻辑下 氧化铝上方受阻 淡季铝价表现较为坚挺 预计沪铝震荡 ——国信期货有色（铝产业链） 2025年7月13日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 成本、利润：成本端而言，据SMM数据，截至7月10日，氧化铝完全平均成本约为2850元/吨，较7月3日小幅下降5元/吨。据 SMM数据显示，截至7月9日，中国电解铝冶炼成本约16514元/吨，较7月3日上涨44元/吨左右，主因氧化铝价格上涨带动成本 上涨，目前行业平均利润收窄至4145元/吨左右。 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 行情概览 研究所 宏观面：当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣称，将从8月1日起对来自14个国家的进口产品征收关税，同时，特朗普签署行政 令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。据央视新闻客户端报道，美国总统特朗普9日宣布， 将从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 现货：据SMM数据，截至7月11日，国产氧化铝现货均价为3142.39元/吨，较7月4日上涨26.64元/吨，截至7月4日，长江有色 市场铝（A00）平均 ...

取 更 多 资 讯 从业证书号 Z0019878 瑞达期货研究院 助理研究员: 「2025.07.11」 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类市场周报 淡季影响持续发酵，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.29%，报20695元/吨。氧化铝先涨后跌，周涨跌+3.08%，报3117元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存小幅回升，位于中高区间运行，供应量仍较为充足；几内亚供给受季节 性变化影响发运量减少，预计到港后国内进口量级或有收敛，铝土矿报价整体持稳。供给方面，国内在产产能维持高 位，现货市场供给宽松，近期氧化铝期货上涨令市场出现期现套利机会，期现商询价积极，现货报价上调。短期内， 国内氧化铝供给量预计仍将保持偏多状态。需求方面，国内电解铝产能持稳并保持高位，对氧化铝需求情绪仍相对稳 定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给相对偏多、需求稳定的阶段，前期盘面乐观情 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 氧化铝交割风险尚未解除 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20820元/吨，较上一交易日上涨160元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20710元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/ 吨至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20800元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-10日沪铝主力合约开于20520元/吨，收于20700元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨185元/ 吨，涨幅0.9%，最高价达20750元/吨，最低价达到20515元/吨。全天交易日成交138934手，较上一交易日增加 36365手，全天交易日持仓255633手，较上一交易日增加5534手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-10，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.6万吨。截止2025-07-10，LME铝库存395725 吨，较前一交易日增加4925吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-10 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3130元/吨，山东价格录得3120元/吨， ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20700 | 185 | 20 | 840 | -195 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20760 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2606 | ব | 1 | 136 | -51 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 138934 | 36365 | 24694 | -44589 | -87270 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 255633 | 5534 | -25459 | 64489 | 8937 | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 氧化铝的过剩需要等待从量变到质变 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20660元/吨，较上一交易日上涨60元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20550元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20640元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持平于-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-09日沪铝主力合约开于20510元/吨，收于20515元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨20元/ 吨，涨幅0.1%，最高价达20575元/吨，最低价达到20455元/吨。全天交易日成交102569手，较上一交易日减少 7014手，全天交易日持仓250099手，较上一交易日减少4627手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-09，LME铝库存390800 吨，较前一交易日增加6450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-09 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3100元/吨，广西 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - **Main Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-08 氧化铝交割风险正在进行中 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20640元/吨，较上一交易日下跌130元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日持平于-40元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20510元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨10元/ 吨至-160元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20590元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨15元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-07日沪铝主力合约开于20595元/吨，收于20410元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌230元/ 吨，跌幅-1.11%，最高价达20625元/吨，最低价达到20385元/吨。全天交易日成交148670手，较上一交易日增 加34299手，全天交易日持仓255324手，较上一交易日减少16863手。 电解铝：绝对价格大幅度回落，现货升水底部震荡，社会库存出现继续小幅增加。冶炼利润在消费淡季扩大至4000 元/吨，长期来看在供给受限的背景下，行业利润的高企不是限制铝价上涨的因素，短期来看铝价的进一步上涨需 要宏观向好+微观消费走强共振。当前正值消费淡季，社会库 ...