Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Social inventory continues to decline, spot premium performs well, and the premium in East China has increased significantly. The domestic zinc smelting loss has expanded, and the supply pressure has decreased. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. There is optimism about future consumption, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,440 yuan per ton, with a premium of 130 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,380 yuan per ton, with a premium of -5 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,340 yuan per ton, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,105 yuan per ton and closed at 23,255 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 242,907 lots, and the open interest was 93,687 lots. The highest price was 23,470 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,000 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,550 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Social inventory is declining, and the spot premium is strong, especially in East China. Downstream buyers are purchasing on a need - to - basis due to high prices, and market trading is sluggish. The import window for zinc ore has opened, and the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The zinc ingot export window is closed. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has expanded, and supply pressure has decreased [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is ebbing, and the supply of zinc continues to tighten. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains. Although the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the 11th was unexpectedly dovish and restarted balance - sheet expansion, driving precious metals and non - ferrous metals to rise rapidly, the dot - plot only prices in one 25bps rate cut next year, and the stimulus of the Fed's monetary policy before March 18 next year is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.68% at 23,621 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 219,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 220,100 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,700 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 65 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 80 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 235,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Market Trends**: The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased, and the TC of zinc concentrate continued to decline. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, while the LME zinc ingot inventory slowly increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly. At the current Shanghai - London ratio, there is still an element gap in China. Coupled with the production cuts of zinc smelting enterprises, the domestic spot side has tightened marginally [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - The report presents multiple macro - economic data charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of US national debt to GDP and the total national debt, the Fed's balance - sheet asset and liability structure, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing new orders and unfilled orders, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US aluminum and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [33][35]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 139,900 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc is relatively high. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc is rising, and the net short position of commercial enterprises is rising. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bullish [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore's visible inventory has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, pressuring zinc smelting profits and leading some high - cost zinc smelters to cut production. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slightly decreased, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased after considering in - transit inventory and factory inventory. Recently, the LME zinc monthly spread has risen again, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased, driving zinc prices to be strong in the short term. However, in the medium term, the weak status quo of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the upward space of zinc prices is expected to be limited [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Industry Data**: Zinc concentrate domestic TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton. Zinc concentrate port inventory is 279,000 physical tons, and factory inventory is 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.96% to 22,885 yuan/ton, and the total SHFE zinc positions decreased by 19,700 lots to 202,000 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 70 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 50 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 40 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 110 yuan/ton [12] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report provides multiple macro - related charts, including the US monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of the US national debt to GDP, the Fed's balance sheet asset and liability structure, dollar liquidity, China and US manufacturing PMIs, and US manufacturing new orders and unfinished orders. However, there is no specific text analysis [15][17][20][21] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 330,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of 5.2%. From January to October, the total zinc ore output was 3.0706 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.0%. In October 2025, the net zinc ore imports were 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ore imports were 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [26][28] - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton [29][30] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5.6863 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net zinc ingot imports were 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ingot imports were 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [34][36] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [40] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative apparent demand was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [42] 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [53] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the overseas refined zinc cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 139,900 tons [56] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton [61] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton [64] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [65] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased again. The net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is bullish in the short term [68]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Sentiment Warms Up, Zinc Ingot Supply Remains Loose - Zinc Weekly Report 2025/11/29" [1] - Analyst: Zhang Shijiao from the Non - ferrous Metals Group [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current weak situation of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectation, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of zinc to speculative funds. The total position of SHFE zinc weighting has reached a new low since March 2025. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range oscillation in the short term [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.04% at 22,436 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 188,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S fell 9 to 3,037 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 222,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,370 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 50 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 65 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [11] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 61 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The content mainly presents multiple macro - economic charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt ratio, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][16][19][20] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.5%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,340,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1% [25] - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,023,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [27] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2% [33] - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,967,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5,804,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 33,100 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 138,900 tons [55] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [63] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [64] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [67]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material inventory days of smelters are declining, and with winter storage demand, the procurement demand for the mining end is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, squeezing smelting profits. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, and if TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and the overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated as expected, and the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro environment remains favorable [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $85.57/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,425 yuan/ton and closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 140,709 lots, and the open interest was 118,939 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,700 tons, with a change of 300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons, a decrease of 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are falling, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for mining end procurement is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, severely squeezing smelting comprehensive profits. High - cost areas are facing losses. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, with the expected year - on - year growth rate in November falling below 20%, and the daily average output decreasing month - on - month. If TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing, with the warehouse receipt risk not alleviated. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude is lower than expected. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains favorable [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The domestic zinc market is weak with increasing social inventories and strong overseas premiums and falling inventories, making the supply - demand contradiction difficult to resolve in the short term. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, while the overseas market provides support. The current zinc price is judged to be neutral in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $18.78/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -260 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of -75 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 09 - 04, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,240 yuan/ton, closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, -185 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a trading volume of 171,243 lots and a position of 118,873 lots. The highest price was 22,325 yuan/ton and the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 09 - 04, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 148,900 tons, a change of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 54,750 tons, a change of -475 tons from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The domestic spot market is weak, with increasing social inventories. The overseas market has strong premiums and falling inventories. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot output in August increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas market supports the price due to good macro - conditions and supply contraction. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].

Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$1.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton [1] - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,645 yuan/ton and closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,217 lots, and the open interest was 117,616 lots. The highest price was 22,725 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,580 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, a change of -3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the spot market, the spot premium is overall. The import ore TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. Domestic smelting profits remain high, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Smelters' raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for the ore end [4] - On the consumption side, the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas inventory has been increasing continuously. A rapid increase in social inventory will suppress zinc prices [4] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]