Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of tin is in a short - term tight balance. In the global macro - loose cycle, the medium - term demand is not pessimistic. However, in the short term, there is an expected increase in supply due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, and the growth of tin demand from consumer electronics is not obvious. So, it is not recommended to chase high prices, and buying on dips may have a higher probability of success [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative refined tin output was 127,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.95%. The smelter's operating rate in September was 38.6%, and some enterprises had maintenance in September [5] - In Yunnan, most smelters' output decreased month - on - month, with some having maintenance and production stagnation, and the tin ore supply was still tight. In Guangxi, enterprises' output decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight raw materials. In Jiangxi, the smelter output decreased slightly due to tight raw materials and policy reasons [5] - In October 2025, as large smelters resume production and most sample enterprises maintain stable operation, the domestic refined tin output is expected to rise to about 14,500 tons [5] - Due to the slow increase in the output of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, China's overall tin ore imports remain at a low level, and tin ingot supply has been low. In the fourth quarter, tin ingot supply may increase significantly after the supply of tin mines in Myanmar gradually expands [2][16] Demand - side - In Q3 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 10% year - on - year, the highest since the peak demand during the 2022 pandemic. The growth rate of mobile phone consumption rebounded slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 2%. IDC predicts that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The emerging 3C electronic consumption areas driven by AI are still in the initial stage and have little impact on overall demand [8] - The construction of 5G communication equipment and large - scale data center servers requires a large number of circuit boards and connection components, and the tin consumption is increasing steadily. With continuous investment in global AI - related capital expenditure, the server scale is growing rapidly. IDC data predicts that AI server shipments will increase by 26% year - on - year to 1.895 million units in 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 [8] - In September 2025, China's automobile sales reached 3.226 million, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [8] - Other non - semiconductor demand is relatively stable. Tin consumption in the tinplate field has declined slightly as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The output of PVC has increased slightly year - on - year in the first three quarters, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [12] - Downstream new energy vehicles and AI servers continue to be booming, traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are experiencing a mild recovery, while the photovoltaic field is relatively weak due to over - capacity and trade frictions [2][16]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation after a pull - back from the high. The Fed officials sent dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and market sentiment was still pessimistic. The supply side faced significant pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and ongoing maintenance of some domestic smelters. Demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Overall, it was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Affected by macro - upward drivers and a large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - position asset. In the short term, enter the market on dips [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices oscillated narrowly after a pull - back from the high. Macro factors included dovish Fed signals and strengthened interest - rate cut expectations, with high gold prices and pessimistic market sentiment. On the fundamental side, there were continuous disturbances in mines at home and abroad and maintenance of some domestic smelters, leading to supply - side pressure. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, and the increase in emerging fields was uncertain. Tin is considered a long - position asset, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [2] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Volatility and Forecast**: The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 280,750 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 19.31%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 49.6% [18] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 288,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (SN2511C290000) when volatility is appropriate. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of Shanghai tin's main futures contract at around 277,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of put options (SN2511P270000) when volatility is appropriate [21] - **Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees**: The tin import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 4,721.03 yuan and a weekly decline of 24.52%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no change [21] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for over half a month. On October 16, the US Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill still failed to pass, and there is no sign of the shutdown ending in the short term [22] - **Negative Information**: Alphamin Resources increased its annual tin production forecast to 18,000 - 18,500 tons, with a 26.4% increase in the third - quarter output compared to the previous quarter and a 5.6% increase compared to the same period last year. The Indonesian president transferred six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise. Cornish Metals plans to produce 49,000 tons of tin, 3,800 tons of copper, and 3,200 tons of zinc annually, with production expected to start in mid - 2028. Nathan Trotter started the construction of a secondary tin smelter in the US with an investment of $65 million [23][24][25] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 2.23% week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, up 60% week - on - week. The 40% tin concentrate price is 269,000 yuan/ton, down 2.32% week - on - week, and the 60% tin concentrate price is 273,000 yuan/ton, down 2.29% week - on - week. The prices of 60A and 63A solder bars also decreased [24] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced [27] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Price and Change**: The latest price of the Shanghai tin main contract is 280,750 yuan/ton, down 1.96% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - one contract is 281,180 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin continuous - three contract is 281,350 yuan/ton, down 1.81% week - on - week; the LME tin 3M is $35,030/ton, down 0.91% week - on - week; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.87, up 1.94% week - on - week [27] - **Inventory and Change**: The Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,652 tons, down 2.7% week - on - week; the Shanghai tin inventory is 5,879 tons, down 8.55% week - on - week; the LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,505 tons, up 15.44% week - on - week; the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 230 tons, down 4.17% week - on - week; the LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, up 7.74% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 1.13% week - on - week [28] - **Domestic Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly this week, closing at 280,700 yuan/ton. Profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic basis and monthly - spread structure were stable, and the Shanghai tin term structure maintained a C - structure. The LME tin term structure maintained a B - structure, and the forward trading volume was small. The domestic - foreign spread was stable and oscillated narrowly [29][31][35] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have been hovering at historical lows, suppressing smelters' profits and production willingness [38] 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - No specific profit - tracking content is summarized, mainly presenting import volume seasonal charts of Chinese tin ore and unforged non - alloy tin [40][41] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Mine - end disturbances and smelter losses have brought significant pressure to the supply side [42] 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - No specific demand - side deduction content is summarized, mainly presenting seasonal charts of China's refined tin production, domestic recycled refined tin monthly production, SMM tin solder enterprise monthly starting rate, and tin ingot monthly apparent consumption [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is taking significant measures to combat illegal tin mining, which is expected to impact global tin supply and prices in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Tin Production and Market Impact - Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin concentrate and refined tin, with an estimated tin concentrate production of approximately 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global production [1][3]. - The crackdown on illegal smelting operations is projected to lead to a 30.7% year-on-year decline in Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024, reaching 49,900 tons, the lowest level in over 20 years, representing 13.4% of global refined tin output [1][3]. - The Indonesian government's actions to close 1,000 illegal tin mines and block smuggling routes could prevent potential losses of up to 22 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.2 billion USD) from September to December 2025, and 45 trillion Rupiah (approximately 2.6 billion USD) in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Supply Chain Dynamics - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, requiring companies to resubmit new annual production quotas [4]. - The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is lagging behind expectations, with only about 1,200 tons exported in August, contributing to a continued supply gap in the overall tin market [4]. Group 3: Demand Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to rise significantly due to the increased tin consumption in AI servers, with estimates indicating that a single NVIDIA NVL72GB300 server consumes approximately 4.71 kg of tin, substantially higher than traditional servers [4]. - The annual growth rate of tin consumption in global AI servers is projected to reach 44.5%, with an expected consumption of 34,000 tons by 2030, which could represent 9% of the current global tin demand of 372,700 tons in 2024 [5]. - Long-term prospects for tin prices are optimistic due to limited new supply capacity and growing demand from emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and steady growth in electric vehicles and photovoltaics [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining is expected to significantly impact global tin supply, with a projected drop in Indonesia's refined tin production by 30.7% in 2024, reaching a 20-year low [2][11] - The demand for tin is anticipated to rise due to the increasing consumption of tin in AI servers, with an expected annual growth rate of 44.5% from 2025 to 2030 [4][18] - The overall tin supply remains tight, with additional pressures from the slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa region [3][12] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply Disruption - Indonesia's President ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, potentially avoiding losses of up to 12 billion USD in 2025 and 26 billion USD in 2026 [1] - Indonesia is the second-largest producer of tin, accounting for 16.7% of global tin ore production in 2024, with refined tin production expected to fall to 49,900 tons [2][11] Section 2: Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian government has reverted the RKAB approval process from a three-year to an annual basis, effective from 2026, to enhance compliance and efficiency in the tin industry [3][12] Section 3: Demand Growth - AI servers are projected to significantly increase tin consumption, with Nvidia's NVL72 GB300 server consuming approximately 4.71 kg of tin, which is substantially higher than traditional servers [4][14] - By 2030, global AI server tin consumption is expected to reach 34,000 tons, representing about 9% of the total global tin demand [18][19]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that PT Arsari Tambang, an Indonesian tin mining company, is in discussions to acquire a mining asset in Canada, leveraging a recent economic partnership agreement between Indonesia and Canada [1][2] - The acquisition is valued at approximately 70 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, equivalent to about 422.71 million USD, with plans to complete the transaction by June 2026 [2] - Indonesia is the world's second-largest tin producer, and Arsari Tambang primarily operates in the Bangka-Belitung region, which is a key area for tin production [2] Group 2 - Arsari Tambang's subsidiary, Mitra Stania Prima, is projected to have a tin smelting capacity of 3,811 tons by 2024 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming six months [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company processed 221,581 tonnes of ore, a 32% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the resumption of operations after temporary shutdowns in Q2 2025 [1][7]. - Tin production reached 5,190 tonnes in Q3 2025, marking a 26% increase from the previous quarter and a 6% increase year-on-year, aligning closely with the quarterly production target of 5,000 tonnes [1][7]. - The average tin price achieved in Q3 2025 was $33,877 per tonne, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 7% increase year-on-year [2][7]. Production and Financial Performance - The unit sustaining cost for Q3 2025 was $15,900 per tonne, down 3% from the previous quarter, as production rates returned to normal following prior disruptions [2][7]. - The expected EBITDA for Q3 2025 is $96 million, which is 28% higher than the actual value of $75 million in the previous quarter, driven by increased tin production and sales [3][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a cash balance of $57 million, down from $110 million on June 30, 2025, due to tax payments and dividend distributions [3]. Production Guidance - The company anticipates producing approximately 5,000 tonnes of tin in Q4 2025, raising the total tin production forecast for 2025 to between 18,000 and 18,500 tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 17,500 tonnes [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is showing a positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 280,200.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 287,780.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 3.07% [1] - Supply-side factors indicate a tight market, with slow recovery in the Wa State and low processing fees domestically, leading to losses for smelters and reduced raw material inventories [1] - Demand for tin is showing resilience due to structural support from sectors like artificial intelligence and new energy, despite overall demand not experiencing a strong rebound [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's minutes indicating a preference for continued easing, with some officials supporting the decision to not lower interest rates in September [2] - Indonesia's President has ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may exacerbate supply tensions, while imports from Myanmar are showing signs of improvement due to mining permit approvals [2] - Domestic tin supply remains constrained, particularly in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, with low operating rates and a decline in domestic inventories observed [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of risk assets, particularly in the metals sector, has been strong during the National Day holiday, driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing and supply concerns in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the holiday, LME tin prices rose by 2.95%, while domestic Shanghai tin futures increased by 2.99%, reaching a six-month high of 287,090 yuan/ton [1]. - The tightening supply of tin, exacerbated by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, has contributed to the upward price movement [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's strict enforcement against illegal mining is aimed at better controlling its tin industry, with the closure of many small illegal mining operations. Major tin smelting companies in Indonesia are expected to remain unaffected due to their stable supply channels [1]. - The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (ITEA) projects that refined tin exports will rise from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons, indicating that the recent regulatory actions will not significantly impact exports [1]. Group 3: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic tin production is set to resume as Yunnan Tin ends maintenance, and most smelting plants maintained normal operations during the holiday. Additionally, transportation of tin from Myanmar is gradually recovering, suggesting a slight increase in overall supply [1]. - Post-holiday, the operating rate of downstream tin processing enterprises is expected to remain stable, although colder weather and lower-than-usual Christmas order volumes may keep the operating rates steady in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The expectation of high interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is favorable for risk assets, while new regulations in Indonesia to shorten mining quota validity from three years to one year will effectively control tin supply [2]. - The LME inventory has decreased again, and fluctuations in the 0-3 structure indicate ongoing liquidity concerns, which may further stimulate tin prices [2].