锡行业分析及展望 20251204 摘要 国内锡隐形库存持续消耗，预计到 2025 年 7 月缺口将达峰值约 15,000 吨，矿贸常备库存也将降至较低水平，表明国内锡供应紧张局 面短期内难以缓解，对锡价形成支撑。 缅甸锡矿自 2025 年 8 月起逐步复工，预计 11 月产量达 1,500 吨左右， 但复产进度缓慢，即使到年底，供应缺口也仅能改善约 2000 吨，远未 达到供应宽松状态，短期内对市场影响有限。 预计 2026 年全球锡矿供应将宽松，缅甸锡矿产量有望恢复至 2.6 万吨 至 3.2 万吨，印尼锡锭出口量可能达到 6.5 万吨至 7.2 万吨，非洲地区 也有增产潜力，但具体产量受政策和投资环境影响存在不确定性。 产业链存在主动补库需求，将吸收部分原料增量，即使原料增量达到 1.6 万吨至 3 万吨，对应到实际冶炼产量上的增幅会减少大约 1 万吨， 实际增幅可能低于预期，从而影响市场供需平衡。 印尼政府的锡矿政策调整，包括外汇管制、配额管制和打击走私矿等， 可能导致其作为全球第二大锡锭供应国，整体供应稳定性逐步下降，长 期影响需持续关注。 Q&A 近期锡矿供应情况如何变化？ 自 2023 年 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent tin prices have reached new highs due to tight supply and macroeconomic expectations, with Shanghai futures hitting 323,000 yuan per ton, a 28% increase year-to-date [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts highlight that tin supply remains a core concern, with slow recovery in Myanmar's Wa State mines and a significant drop in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October, leading to continued supply constraints [2] - The geopolitical conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo is causing logistical disruptions and rising costs, limiting tin imports [2] - Tin is currently one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with low static reserve-to-production ratios globally and in China, indicating sustainability challenges [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global supply of tin is under pressure from resource depletion and regulatory changes in major producing countries like Indonesia and Myanmar, which are facing declining grades and increased extraction difficulties [3] - Demand for tin is primarily driven by emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and semiconductors, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for solder demand from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from global fiscal and monetary easing, with an estimated CAGR of 4.3% for global tin demand from 2024 to 2030 [3] Industry Performance - Companies in the tin industry have reported significant profit growth due to rising tin prices, with several listed companies in the A-share market benefiting from the upward trend [5] - Xiyu Tin Industry reported a revenue of 34.417 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 17.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, up 35.99% [6] - Xingye Silver Tin reported a revenue of 4.099 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 24.36% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.364 billion yuan, up 4.94% [6] Strategic Insights - Companies are optimistic about the future of the tin industry, citing tightening policies in Southeast Asia and the strategic importance of tin resources [7] - The demand for tin is expected to grow due to the recovery of the global economy and the rapid development of emerging industries such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [7]

异动点评：降息预期走强以及供应侧扰动，锡价偏 强震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 寇帝斯（投资咨询资格编号：Z0021810） 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 电话：020-88818037 邮箱：koudisi@gf.com.cn 行情导读：受美国降息预期走强以及刚果（金）东部地区地缘冲突持续升级影响，锡价自 11 月末持续上涨，12 月 4 日沪锡主力合约最多上涨 4.64%至 323700 元/吨。 驱动分析一：美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少，市场对 12 月降息预期走强 12 月 3 日最新发布的 ADP 全美就业报告显示，美国私营部门在 11 月削减了 3.2 万个 工作岗位，创下自 2023 年 3 月以来的最大降幅，且远低于市场此前预期的增加 4 万个。 这一意外萎缩的数据，凸显在美联储货币政策面临关键转向的节点，劳动力市场所承受的 压力正在加剧。 当日，美国商务部长卢特尼克接受媒体采访，驳斥了前总统特朗普的关税政策导致 11 月就业下滑的说法。他将就业收缩归因于近期联邦政府停摆对小企业运营造成的临时性冲 击，同时指出大规模遣返非法移民的政策也在一定程度上 ...

对于后市，广州期货评论表示，美国ADP数据意外下降，使投资者几乎完全确信美联储下周将降息，美 元指数大幅下挫，跌破99关口，提振整体有色。国内12月临近中央经济工作会议预计回归至对政策预期 的博弈。产业面，刚果（金）东部局势紧张仍引发供应担忧，但市场对此已有一定程度的定价，进一步 推升价格需要新的催化因素，短期谨慎持多。 （文华综合） 美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储降息预期进一步升温。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储观 察工具显示，美联储在12月FOMC会议上降息的概率高达89%。基本面暂无明显变化，国内锡矿供应仍 相对偏紧，缅甸佤邦处于复产初期，长期锡矿供应有一定宽松预期，短期供应恢复缓慢。印尼当地锡锭 出口已基本恢复常态化，11月从印尼交易所出口锡锭达6500多吨。近期非洲锡矿主产区刚果（金）东部 冲突升级，市场对供应链稳定性担忧加剧，物流运输风险上升。 需求端来看，11月上旬部分下游消费力度下滑较多，光伏需求维周期持正常水平，但11月排产继续维持 下滑预期，家电12月排产较11月下滑较多，消费水平基本接近尾声，需求恢复缓慢。下游企业反馈显 示，当前订单承接量下滑趋势显著，库存周转效率同步放 ...

12月3日，沪锡期货主力2601合约日盘高开高走，盘中最高触及31.41万元/吨，涨幅达2.72%，创下2022 年5月以来新高；收盘报31.23万元/吨，上涨2.15%。自今年6月启动上涨行情以来，沪锡主力合约累计 涨幅已攀升至23.3%。 此轮锡价上行主要受矿端供应收缩与宏观预期改善双重驱动。供应端方面，缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度显著 慢于市场预期，当地锡精矿出口量持续处于低位，加剧了市场对原料短缺的担忧；宏观层面，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%（据CME FedWatch工具），宽松政策预期升温对大宗商品整体形 成提振。此外，新兴领域需求的快速增长为锡价提供了坚实支撑。当前锡消费结构中，半导体与消费电 子仍是锡焊料的核心应用场景——作为锡消费占比超65%的主力领域，半导体行业的景气度回升直接拉 动了锡焊料需求。据半导体行业协会（SIA）最新数据，2024年全球半导体销售额达6276亿美元，较 2023年的5268亿美元大幅增长19.1%；机构预测，2025年半导体封装用锡焊料需求增速将进一步攀升至 5%-7%，成为锡价中长期的重要支撑因素。 现货市场同步走强，锡均价站稳30万元/吨关口，W ...

受非洲锡矿端供应扰动加剧，市场对原料供应收缩的预期持续发酵，叠加美联储降息预期抬升，沪锡盘 初大幅飙升，主力合约一度涨近4%，最高上探313700元/吨，创三年半新高。随后价格迅速回落，涨幅 明显收窄，截止收盘主力合约收涨1.68%，报306580元/吨。 近期非洲锡矿主产区地缘局势急剧升级，刚果（金）东部北基伍省、南基伍省、伊图里省及上韦莱省等 核心锡矿富集区域深陷武装冲突，安全局势持续恶化。从产业影响来看，当前全球第三大锡矿刚果 （金）Bisie 矿的开采生产暂未受到直接波及，但市场对供应链风险的担忧已显著升温。市场普遍预 期，冲突区域的物流运输网络将面临中断风险，矿石运输的时间成本与安全成本或将大幅攀升，进而对 全球锡矿供应链的稳定性构成严峻挑战。 进入四季度，锡下游消费端逐步步入传统淡季，整体需求延续弱势运行格局。从当前下游实际消费表现 及终端企业排产数据来看，今年消费强度较往年同期出现明显下滑。终端需求层面，无论是锡的传统消 费领域，还是新兴消费品类，均呈现不同程度的需求收缩。尽管半导体行业受益于 AI 算力扩张，对锡 需求形成一定增量支撑，但受限于当前该领域需求规模，其对整体消费的拉动作用相对有限 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Huaxi Nonferrous Metals Industry Overview - **Antimony Market**: China dominates the global antimony supply, controlling approximately 50% of production and 70-80% of smelting. The market is currently experiencing a split due to export controls, leading to domestic oversupply and overseas shortages. [2][4][5] - **Tin Market**: The tin market is expected to experience a long-term bullish trend over the next 3-5 years, driven by continuous global demand and supply challenges. The supply growth has been stagnant for the past decade, with new mining developments lagging behind. [2][6][8] Key Insights - **Antimony Price Trends**: Following the easing of export controls, domestic antimony prices have risen to over 170,000 CNY, while overseas prices have decreased to around 350,000 CNY. Future price increases will depend on the stabilization of overseas prices. [2][5] - **Tin Demand Drivers**: Tin is increasingly in demand due to its applications in electronics and semiconductors. The semiconductor industry's recovery is expected to boost sales by 15-20% in 2025, with a significant reduction in inventory levels. [2][9] - **Strategic Importance of Antimony**: Antimony is recognized for its strategic importance, particularly in military applications. The government is likely to implement policies to stabilize prices and enhance profitability for antimony producers. [4][7] Company Positioning - **Huaxi Nonferrous Metals**: The company is positioned to benefit from both antimony and tin markets, with plans to increase production by approximately 15% in 2026 and nearly 40% by 2027. The company aims to consolidate regional resources and expand its project portfolio. [3][11][12] - **Future Growth Potential**: By 2030, the company anticipates an additional demand of over 70,000 tons driven by AI and semiconductor recovery, while facing a significant supply gap. This positions Huaxi Nonferrous Metals favorably for long-term growth. [12] Additional Considerations - **Supply Constraints**: The global tin supply is critically low, with reserves expected to last only about 14 years. This scarcity, combined with increasing demand from new technologies, is likely to keep tin prices elevated. [8] - **Impact of Wa State**: The Wa State's policies are expected to influence global tin supply, but current high prices have not sufficiently incentivized rapid production recovery. [10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the antimony and tin markets, the strategic positioning of Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and the broader implications for the industry.

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持...... 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 新能源&有色组行业锡年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 策略摘要 2025 年下半年以来，佤邦雨季致复产及出口不及预期，进口矿加工费跌至 1.1 万，供应端干扰仍存。而需求则是在"十五五"规划相关板块的刺激下或将 呈现逐步转强的情况，价格重心预计在 2026 年仍将上行。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 价格展望： 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规 划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持震荡偏强格局，高点或触及 37 万元 /吨至 38 万元/吨区间。 矿端：2025 下半年锡精矿"紧平衡"难破：佤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a structural shift with rising prices and demand driven by AI and traditional sectors, while supply remains constrained due to resource depletion and geopolitical factors [2][4][54]. Group 1: Tin Market Overview - Since 2020, tin prices have increased, leading to improved industry profitability and a current PE ratio at the 21st percentile over the past five years [2]. - Tin is one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a global static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years in 2024, indicating a tight supply situation [3][7]. - Major tin resources are concentrated in a few regions, with high development levels, and many supply areas have static reserve-to-production ratios below 22 years [4][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure and smart devices, along with the electrification of vehicles, is expected to accelerate tin solder demand, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [3][12]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to benefit from global monetary easing and the increasing need for "strategic stockpiles" amid geopolitical tensions, with overall global tin demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [3][13]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Key producing regions like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar face significant supply challenges, including declining reserves and frequent disruptions [4][28][38]. - China's tin reserves have decreased by 52% from 2001 to 2024, with a static reserve-to-production ratio dropping to 14 years [28][29]. - Indonesia's tin industry is grappling with resource depletion and regulatory changes that exacerbate supply disruptions, while Myanmar's production has been severely impacted by operational halts [38][45]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The tin price is expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand, with projections indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario from 2025 to 2030 [54][61]. - The global tin supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030, while demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.3% during the same period [61][63]. - The industry faces rising costs due to declining ore grades and inflationary pressures, which may further elevate the incentive prices for new projects [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for tin solder is expected to accelerate due to AI-driven computing infrastructure, innovation cycles in smart devices, and the electrification/intelligentization of automobiles, with a projected CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for tin solder is driven by AI advancements, smart device innovation, and the automotive sector's shift towards electrification and intelligence [2]. - Traditional demand is also expected to benefit from global fiscal and monetary policy easing, with a growing urgency for "safety stock" in the context of de-globalization, leading to a projected global tin demand CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Major tin-producing regions are facing resource constraints and frequent disruptions, with China's tin reserves and static reserve-to-production ratio declining due to insufficient prior exploration [3]. - Indonesia is experiencing multiple issues, including shrinking tin reserves, declining grades, and increased mining difficulties, compounded by frequent policy changes that exacerbate supply disruptions [3]. - Myanmar's previous extensive mining practices have led to significant declines in grade and output, with uncertainties surrounding the resumption of production in the Wa region [3]. - Other regions have projects mostly in early stages, and the supply elasticity of recycled tin is limited due to the miniaturization of solder [3]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Balance and Price Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with projected supply-demand ratios for tin from 2025 to 2030 being -6%, -1%, +1%, +1.6%, +1%, and -0.3% respectively [4]. - The continuous decline in global tin ore grades is pushing up industry cost lines, alongside rising global inflation expectations and geopolitical risk premiums, which may elevate the incentive prices for potential global tin mining projects [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Since 2020, the central price of tin has increased, leading to overall improved industry profitability and valuation normalization, with the current industry PE at the 21st percentile of the past five years [5]. - The industry remains bullish on tin prices and valuation expansion, recommending a focus on companies like Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ) that have strong resource endowments and growth potential [5].